Brian Gutenkunst FA and Draft Grades

[Heyjoe4]

People hate to attribute luck to things. Fans, my clients, everyone.

I will go to my death bed saying if Bahktiari didn't get injured before The Tampa game, GB wins the SB that year. That's just terrible luck.

Yeah and it's a really good point. An example where one All Pro can make a whole lot of difference.

And it was terrible luck, or just plain ol bad luck, that Parsons, Kraft, Wyatt, and a few others weren't available for the playoffs. Parsons would most certainly been the team's MVP on defense had he finished the season. Kraft might not have been the MVP for the offense, that should be Love. But outside Love, Kraft was clearly the most impactful player on offense.

 

[CarryTheG14]

Yeah and it's a really good point. An example where one All Pro can make a whole lot of difference.

And it was terrible luck, or just plain ol bad luck, that Parsons, Kraft, Wyatt, and a few others weren't available for the playoffs. Parsons would most certainly been the team's MVP on defense had he finished the season. Kraft might not have been the MVP for the offense, that should be Love. But outside Love, Kraft was clearly the most impactful player on offense.

Right!

Listen I hate how we ended the season, and how we lost vs Chicago, but I think it's astonishing that people view this year as a failure that calls for MLF/Gute to be fired.

Parsons
Kraft
Wyatt
Tom

are 4 of our best players, and elite/close to being elite at their respective positions.

That's not even counting Jacobs, Watson, Reed, Elgton being severely banged up/ injured.

You're not winning anything with this many important players being hurt.

This year was bad luck.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah and it's a really good point. An example where one All Pro can make a whole lot of difference.

And it was terrible luck, or just plain ol bad luck, that Parsons, Kraft, Wyatt, and a few others weren't available for the playoffs. Parsons would most certainly been the team's MVP on defense had he finished the season. Kraft might not have been the MVP for the offense, that should be Love. But outside Love, Kraft was clearly the most impactful player on offense.

What I love about that Kraft selection (beyond me picking him on my draft pool) was how Kraft is a unifier. When he makes a play he has that "it" factor that others watch him and realize "we've got a firepower TE".. His play is inspiring level and consistently good. He has this old player mentality of toughness, but after the play, he's not a hot head and opponent players try to provoke him and he pretends like they aren't there if that makes? He's a very disciplined player and lets his superior blocking and receiving and YAC be his talk. Very rare if ever do you see him draw a flag and that goes a long ways with me

 

[DoURant]

I just saw this, so thought I would share. All 5 of the top teams graded at a B+. Maybe all the nay sayers who criticize Gute's drafting ability, need to take a step back and look at the whole picture.

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[OldSchool101]

I just saw this, so thought I would share. All 5 of the top teams graded at a B+. Maybe all the nay sayers who criticize Gute's drafting ability, need to take a step back and look at the whole picture.

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Amen and Amen.

 

[OldSchool101]

Let’s just make 2026 one to remember. Last year was minimal production from our first 3 selections. Now in fairness done was positional overlap and some was injury.
RD1 (positional overlap)
RD2 (positional overlap)
RD3 (positional overlap)
RD4 (positional overlap)
RD5 (lost to season ending IR)
RD6 (depth chart thinned, lost to IR)
RD7 (Lost to IR)

It was too early to get an accurate depiction from several players. That’s about to change. We should get a firmed up eval of Brian’s grades from 2024-2025 draft classes. RD1 Morgan; RD1 Golden; RD2 Belton are all presumed starters in 2026. Brian did great with Cooper and Bullard thus far. The jury has been out on back to back selections of Hopper and Lloyd, but 2026 will decide the fate of both and in year 3 is “go time” for their draft grades, regardless injury excuses only last so long.

 

[OldSchool101]

Personally I think the QB position should draw a multiplied grade factor over the vast majority of draft selections. Someone drafting Tom Brady in RD6 should have a multiplier effect of crossing out a world of draft woes IF it hits. If not? it should be graded by draft location as usual. I see Jordan late RD1 as being at minimum a double impact draft impact grade. He’s basically hitting on a pair of Kenny Clark’s. So he’s not only an A grade, he erases a RD1 miss on top of it. That’s where Brian elevated himself imo.

Gute also took a RD1 and RD3 and turned it into J’aire + Savage, so that the net effect is he used a RD3 to acquire Darnell, who was C+ grade per collateral spent. I see some adversaries grade Brian on a RD1 for Darnell and on surface it looks dandy. There’s got to be a better grading system that rewards trades like this.

In FA Gute has been like B+ overall until 2025 but trending back into B grade territory lately. The Jury is out on Banks but Hobbs was an F+ and uncharacteristic misuse of $17? Guar.

On a C scale per $$$/draft spent

ZaDarius B
Preston B+
Amos B+
Turner B
Rasul A-
Sammy Watkins D+ (only 350K guar)
Tramon Williams B-
Keisean Nixon A
Xavier McKinney A-
Josh Jacobs B+
Malik Willis A
Banks (early C-)
Hobbs F+

That’s just my thoughts on the fly and its give or take +- variation, but close. I’d put Brian in the Top 6-8 GM’s in Free Agency thus far. I’d label him a Divisional level acquisition GM in Free Agency thus far. He’s not Elite but he’s going to steer you right more often than not.

 

[tynimiller]

I just saw this, so thought I would share. All 5 of the top teams graded at a B+. Maybe all the nay sayers who criticize Gute's drafting ability, need to take a step back and look at the whole picture.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

This comes as ZERO shock by those that don’t just passively follow the draft and actual performance in the NFL…not one bit

 

[Heyjoe4]

Right!

Listen I hate how we ended the season, and how we lost vs Chicago, but I think it's astonishing that people view this year as a failure that calls for MLF/Gute to be fired.

Parsons
Kraft
Wyatt
Tom

are 4 of our best players, and elite/close to being elite at their respective positions.

That's not even counting Jacobs, Watson, Reed, Elgton being severely banged up/ injured.

You're not winning anything with this many important players being hurt.

This year was bad luck.

Good summary Carry. None of us wants to fall bck on injuries as an excuse for not finishing the season strong. But last year the Packers were decimated by injuries and the subsequent missed time (just like the Lions the year before, and this past season). Some of that will carry over into the next season, but not for long and the Packers should be at full steam around mid-November, ideally sooner.

And Gluten's actions in FA reinforce the belief that the team, when healthy, is very talented, very young and with a few spots that need pluggong - in my order - CB/DT/OL.

Gluten has addressed FA by signing older players, like Hargrave, rather than pursuinf expensive FAs like McDuffie at CB who may or may not pan out. He also signed a kick returner, and important acknowledgement that improvment is very much neecded.

Losing the last five games, injuries aside, can be demoralizing to a team and its fan base. But I think the Packers have a SB-worthy roster that will be imporved with FA and the draft. Not many teams are in this position.

 

[CarryTheG14]

Good summary Carry. None of us wants to fall bck on injuries as an excuse for not finishing the season strong. But last year the Packers were decimated by injuries and the subsequent missed time (just like the Lions the year before, and this past season). Some of that will carry over into the next season, but not for long and the Packers should be at full steam around mid-November, ideally sooner.

And Gluten's actions in FA reinforce the belief that the team, when healthy, is very talented, very young and with a few spots that need pluggong - in my order - CB/DT/OL.

Gluten has addressed FA by signing older players, like Hargrave, rather than pursuinf expensive FAs like McDuffie at CB who may or may not pan out. He also signed a kick returner, and important acknowledgement that improvment is very much neecded.

Losing the last five games, injuries aside, can be demoralizing to a team and its fan base. But I think the Packers have a SB-worthy roster that will be imporved with FA and the draft. Not many teams are in this position.

Just out of curiosity to everyone, what rosters are you definitively taking over GBs?

For me, The Rams are a half tier above everyone else. Other than that I think GB is in that 2nd tier.

 

[milani]

Good summary Carry. None of us wants to fall bck on injuries as an excuse for not finishing the season strong. But last year the Packers were decimated by injuries and the subsequent missed time (just like the Lions the year before, and this past season). Some of that will carry over into the next season, but not for long and the Packers should be at full steam around mid-November, ideally sooner.

And Gluten's actions in FA reinforce the belief that the team, when healthy, is very talented, very young and with a few spots that need pluggong - in my order - CB/DT/OL.

Gluten has addressed FA by signing older players, like Hargrave, rather than pursuinf expensive FAs like McDuffie at CB who may or may not pan out. He also signed a kick returner, and important acknowledgement that improvment is very much neecded.

Losing the last five games, injuries aside, can be demoralizing to a team and its fan base. But I think the Packers have a SB-worthy roster that will be imporved with FA and the draft. Not many teams are in this position.

2026 could be a flip of 2025. A fallout in the first half if the season and then a string finish. The end result: About the same as last year.

 

[tynimiller]

2026 could be a flip of 2025. A fallout in the first half if the season and then a string finish. The end result: About the same as last year.

I could easily see as the OL continuity builds and Golden and Kraft get more in groove (for different reasons) the team really hit stride about week 7 or so. I could care less if we end about same in regular season so long as we hit playoffs hot and disciplined.

Of course prefer wind division and have a bye but give me a ticket to the dance where anything can happen.

 

[OldSchool101]

So far Brian hasn’t done much to improve. Although the 1 area I’m excited is DT. Hargrave is a very good player. I’m hoping we don’t stop there. I’d like to go get 1 more DT by RD4-5 at latest.

Edge has now become a focus. I wouldn’t he surprised to see us use a Day 2 at Edge. Unless Brian finds a good value in FA first. I’d like to grab 1 more player in FA if possible if not doesn’t negate our Comp tables.

If we went heavy D first I’m ok with that. Obviously I realize needs don’t always align with the guy remaining on the board, but in a perfect world if they fell like this I’d be pumped

CB
Edge
DT
WR
TE
RB
OL

 

[CarryTheG14]

So far Brian hasn’t done much to improve. Although the 1 area I’m excited is DT. Hargrave is a very good player. I’m hoping we don’t stop there. I’d like to go get 1 more DT by RD4-5 at latest.

Edge has now become a focus. I wouldn’t he surprised to see us use a Day 2 at Edge. Unless Brian finds a good value in FA first. I’d like to grab 1 more player in FA if possible if not doesn’t negate our Comp tables.

If we went heavy D first I’m ok with that. Obviously I realize needs don’t always align with the guy remaining on the board, but in a perfect world if they fell like this I’d be pumped

CB
Edge
DT
WR
TE
RB
OL

I disagree with you on the Edge. LVN/Sorrell/Cox/Oliver is more than good enough to hold the fort down and has significant upside.

CB
DT
RB
OL
WR

 

[milani]

I could easily see as the OL continuity builds and Golden and Kraft get more in groove (for different reasons) the team really hit stride about week 7 or so. I could care less if we end about same in regular season so long as we hit playoffs hot and disciplined.

Of course prefer wind division and have a bye but give me a ticket to the dance where anything can happen.

Likely, if we get in it will be on the road as a 6 or 7.

 

[tynimiller]

Likely, if we get in it will be on the road as a 6 or 7.

Likely any seed from 1-7 if we end in stride and healthy I'll be giddy and happy with that punched ticket

 

[Heyjoe4]

Just out of curiosity to everyone, what rosters are you definitively taking over GBs?

For me, The Rams are a half tier above everyone else. Other than that I think GB is in that 2nd tier.

I think you're right. Especially with Walker III leaving the hags, and the offseason moves the Rams have made, they may be alone in the top tier of teams likely to win the SB.

Please take that comment FWIW - not a lot. Last year at this time no analyst or fan had Seattle/New England in mind as a likely SB matchup. A lot can and will change.

With what is known now, it sure looks like the Rams are, as you note, a half tier above everyone else. They bring back the reigning MVP, and even at 37 or 38, Stafford has the talent and the desire to retire with one more ring. And what a way to go out.

The Packers will have something to say about that.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I could easily see as the OL continuity builds and Golden and Kraft get more in groove (for different reasons) the team really hit stride about week 7 or so. I could care less if we end about same in regular season so long as we hit playoffs hot and disciplined.

Of course prefer wind division and have a bye but give me a ticket to the dance where anything can happen.

Yeah I agree with that. A few teams, including the Packers, have gone on to win the SB from the bottom pole position. I'll gladly take a 7th seed if the team is playing well and healthy, as you noted.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Likely, if we get in it will be on the road as a 6 or 7.

I don't know the stats on this, but as far back as I can recall, and excluding the Lombardi years, the Packers haven't benefitted much from HFA in the playoffs. The last SB win for the Pack came from the 6th, and last seed.

Getting the #1 seed is truly valuable, given the week off, and that it only goes to one team in each conference. A bye at that point in the season is huge. That's a big deal, and IMO, more important than HFA (although HFA obviously comes along with the #1 seed......).

I hope that makes sense......

 

[milani]

I don't know the stats on this, but as far back as I can recall, and excluding the Lombardi years, the Packers haven't benefitted much from HFA in the playoffs. The last SB win for the Pack came from the 6th, and last seed.

Getting the #1 seed is truly valuable, given the week off, and that it only goes to one team in each conference. A bye at that point in the season is huge. That's a big deal, and IMO, more important than HFA (although HFA obviously comes along with the #1 seed......).

I hope that makes sense......

It comes down to how many wins, losses, and ties a team has after Game 17. Playing without our top players through the first half of the season along with new players and coaches is not an early season formula for success. In fact it could be chaotic in the development stage. Depending on who we play it could result in a 2-5 or 2-6 start. So even if the team gets it going after that they will be in must win games every week. And yet they may not make the playoffs. This will not be one of those " run the table " seasons as Rodgers prophesied a decade ago. And getting in to face the #2 and #1 seeds on the road is not exactly the best scenario.

 

[CarryTheG14]

I think you're right. Especially with Walker III leaving the hags, and the offseason moves the Rams have made, they may be alone in the top tier of teams likely to win the SB.

Please take that comment FWIW - not a lot. Last year at this time no analyst or fan had Seattle/New England in mind as a likely SB matchup. A lot can and will change.

With what is known now, it sure looks like the Rams are, as you note, a half tier above everyone else. They bring back the reigning MVP, and even at 37 or 38, Stafford has the talent and the desire to retire with one more ring. And what a way to go out.

The Packers will have something to say about that.

That's a great point. Last year was the most unpredictable years I can really remember.

Who had KC/Baltimore and Detroit missing the play-offs too?!

 

[milani]

That's a great point. Last year was the most unpredictable years I can really remember.

Who had KC/Baltimore and Detroit missing the play-offs too?!

And who had NE-Denver in the AFC Championship? Or Seattle in the SB?

 

[rmontro]

And who had NE-Denver in the AFC Championship? Or Seattle in the SB?

With Seattle looking so dominant? Seattle facing a healthy Denver would have probably been more competitive though.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It comes down to how many wins, losses, and ties a team has after Game 17. Playing without our top players through the first half of the season along with new players and coaches is not an early season formula for success. In fact it could be chaotic in the development stage. Depending on who we play it could result in a 2-5 or 2-6 start. So even if the team gets it going after that they will be in must win games every week. And yet they may not make the playoffs. This will not be one of those " run the table " seasons as Rodgers prophesied a decade ago. And getting in to face the #2 and #1 seeds on the road is not exactly the best scenario.

All good points milani. Parsons and Kraft won't be around in September, and Parsons will probably not be ready until early November. The team can certainlybgethot with just these two guys back. But in the meantime, they can't afford to play 2-5, 2-6 to start. I don't know the schedule. In any case, they need to start fast.

...and stay healthy. I'd love to see all the guys NOT around for the Chaicago playoff game healthy in December.

 

[Heyjoe4]

With Seattle looking so dominant? Seattle facing a healthy Denver would have probably been more competitive though.

Agreed. Drake Maye was just not ready for a moment that big at this point in his career. It was invaluable experience.

And yeah, Denver/Seattle would have been a better matchup, even with Nix not playing. Denver has the best D in the AFC, my opinion. I still think Seattle wins, but it would have been a better game to watch.