Brian Gutenkunst FA and Draft Grades

[Heyjoe4]

That's a real "checkers or the wreckers" mentality on GM performance. If he isn't building a SB roster then he sucks. Nobody is saying that he is the best GM, but to imply that he is no good is disingenuous at best, an emotional response to not getting what you wanted that lacks objectivity.

Welcome to the forum

Yeah that's a good response EG. Gluten isn't the best GM in the NFL but I'm not sure how to measure it anyway.

IMO, Gluten has made a lot more right decisions than wrong decisions. Taking Love in round 1 was a huge risk (although Gluten didn't see it that way). Rodgers was getting near the end, but had at least another 2 or 3 solid seasons left. As it turns out, Gluten was right taking Love when and where he did. (And I admit, I didn't like the pick - using a first rounder on a guy who won't start for at least two years. First thought wrong, again........).

I don't think the transition from Rodgers could have been done any better. And I always reference Chicago at this point - something like 30 different starting QBs over 30 years. That's a lot of really bad drafting (remember Mitch Trubisky and all the draft capital it took to get him?). I do miss Cutler though. He was the Packers' MVP for a number of years.

 

[Heyjoe4]

TT was not the type who would spend a nickel on Parsons. But he would look for a bargain deal on a Julius Peppers late in the player's career. Yes, one dimensional. TT would have made a better president for the country than a GM for a team. My argument is that he would fight Congress to cut every nickel and dime.

That is hilarious milani! Yeah TT would have never done the Parsons' trade. But Julius Peppers was maybe his best acquisition. Turned out JP had quite a few miles left.

I much prefer Gluten's style as far as using FA. Banks and Hobbs didn't/haven't panned out, but a lot of his FA deals were solid and improved the team - thinking about the Smith Bros, Amos, Turner and then McKinney and Parsons. Well Parsons was a trade. Even so, TT would never have done that deal.

 

[milani]

That is hilarious milani! Yeah TT would have never done the Parsons' trade. But Julius Peppers was maybe his best acquisition. Turned out JP had quite a few miles left.

I much prefer Gluten's style as far as using FA. Banks and Hobbs didn't/haven't panned out, but a lot of his FA deals were solid and improved the team - thinking about the Smith Bros, Amos, Turner and then McKinney and Parsons. Well Parsons was a trade. Even so, TT would never have done that deal.

I did like the Peppers deal. It was classic TT if he could find the bargain. JP helped to win a number of games for us. But TT reminded of my first mother-in-law. She would head to a resale shop and buy 10 items, return 3, and then give away 5 to salvage. Then buy back the same item she returned to the same shop.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I mean can we expect a mature and actual intelligent post from someone who created a profile solely to post that named @Anti Koolaide drinker ..... I feel like this would be like expected Trump to be humble or Lebron to not flop or Mahomes to not wine for a call...somethings we can just come to expect LOL

The "Kool Aid" comment is an outlier. Most of us can disagree amiably on marginal, subjective subjects. (Well almost all comments are subjective).

But suggesting MLF's success is only because he had Rodgers - well at best that's an outdated comment. And any way you look at it, it's just wrong.

 

[El Guapo]

Let's be realistic. The goal of every GM is to draft 100% elite players, and spend all of your cap re-signing them as you win the SB year after year. Since that never happens, GM's use free agency to plug gaps left by poor draft choices.

As noted, TT's drafting fell off in later years and he didn't change his ways. He needed to spend more on FAs and cut his draft failures quicker. He was also saddled with Rodgers' enormous cap number, so that did limit him some but he also failed to change with the times and circumstances.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Let's be realistic. The goal of every GM is to draft 100% elite players, and spend all of your cap re-signing them as you win the SB year after year. Since that never happens, GM's use free agency to plug gaps left by poor draft choices.

As noted, TT's drafting fell off in later years and he didn't change his ways. He needed to spend more on FAs and cut his draft failures quicker. He was also saddled with Rodgers' enormous cap number, so that did limit him some but he also failed to change with the times and circumstances.

Agreed. And all GMs on successful teams are gonna have to learn how to improve the team through FA. There will always be cap limitations that require knowledge, skill, and a bit of luck. No GM gets a draft 100% correct. Far from it.

 

[adambr2]

I find it a little bit hypocritical that some of the same folks singing Gute’s praises are the same ones criticizing Ted Thompson.

Yes, they are/were different style GMs. And I think in his later years, TT probably wasn’t as capable anymore and should have given up the position before things got bad. Nonetheless, he did the same thing Gute had to do - transition from a HOF quarterback to a new era, and he put together a Super Bowl champion within 3 years of when that HOF quarterback walked out the door. And in the same vein, his teams were almost always competitive, even when not championship worthy. You can partially point to Rodgers for that, but he’s the one who drafted him.

It’s also unfair to paint him as someone who was afraid to make a splash. Have we already forgotten how Charles Woodson was arguably our most impactful player from that generation of Packer teams? Just because he didn’t have to give up two 1st round picks to get him, doesn’t make it less impactful.

Yes, he preferred draft and develop. He was exceptionally good at it, at least in his early to mid years. Nearly every day two WR ended up being a home run. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t willing to make a big move when the situation warranted it.

Sure, the Justin Harrell’s of the world happened, like they do for any GM, but Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary could only dream of being as good as Clay Matthews was.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I find it a little bit hypocritical that some of the same folks singing Gute’s praises are the same ones criticizing Ted Thompson.

Yes, they are/were different style GMs. And I think in his later years, TT probably wasn’t as capable anymore and should have given up the position before things got bad. Nonetheless, he did the same thing Gute had to do - transition from a HOF quarterback to a new era, and he put together a Super Bowl champion within 3 years of when that HOF quarterback walked out the door. And in the same vein, his teams were almost always competitive, even when not championship worthy. You can partially point to Rodgers for that, but he’s the one who drafted him.

It’s also unfair to paint him as someone who was afraid to make a splash. Have we already forgotten how Charles Woodson was arguably our most impactful player from that generation of Packer teams? Just because he didn’t have to give up two 1st round picks to get him, doesn’t make it less impactful.

Yes, he preferred draft and develop. He was exceptionally good at it, at least in his early to mid years. Nearly every day two WR ended up being a home run. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t willing to make a big move when the situation warranted it.

Sure, the Justin Harrell’s of the world happened, like they do for any GM, but Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary could only dream of being as good as Clay Matthews was.

Good summary of TT's career in GB and how he successfully transitioned from one HOF QB to another. No easy task, that.

 

[OldSchool101]

I find it a little bit hypocritical that some of the same folks singing Gute’s praises are the same ones criticizing Ted Thompson.

Yes, they are/were different style GMs. And I think in his later years, TT probably wasn’t as capable anymore and should have given up the position before things got bad. Nonetheless, he did the same thing Gute had to do - transition from a HOF quarterback to a new era, and he put together a Super Bowl champion within 3 years of when that HOF quarterback walked out the door. And in the same vein, his teams were almost always competitive, even when not championship worthy. You can partially point to Rodgers for that, but he’s the one who drafted him.

It’s also unfair to paint him as someone who was afraid to make a splash. Have we already forgotten how Charles Woodson was arguably our most impactful player from that generation of Packer teams? Just because he didn’t have to give up two 1st round picks to get him, doesn’t make it less impactful.

Yes, he preferred draft and develop. He was exceptionally good at it, at least in his early to mid years. Nearly every day two WR ended up being a home run. But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t willing to make a big move when the situation warranted it.

Sure, the Justin Harrell’s of the world happened, like they do for any GM, but Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary could only dream of being as good as Clay Matthews was.

In some respects the 2 GM’s are linked. Gutey was on his Staff the entire time, so in a way much of what he learned was under the tutelage of TT and some of the players drafted were credited to Brian and his team.

 

[milani]

In some respects the 2 GM’s are linked. Gutey was on his Staff the entire time, so in a way much of what he learned was under the tutelage of TT and some of the players drafted were credited to Brian and his team.

So in a sense Gute learned how NOT to be TT. Reminds me of the DT taker at Arby's who suggested a hot turnover for dessert. He recommended apple. So I said " Great! In that case I'll take cherry. "

 

[Heyjoe4]

So in a sense Gute learned how NOT to be TT. Reminds me of the DT taker at Arby's who suggested a hot turnover for dessert. He recommended apple. So I said " Great! In that case I'll take cherry. "

Good metaphor milani. Gluten most certainly learned a lot from TT, and then added his own wrinkles to managing personnel. Gluten has been much more open to using FA to plug holes - and maybe with the exception of last season (Banks and Hobbs), his FA moves have been excellent.

And Old School makes a good point about TT. His declining health was sadly in plain view his one or two years as GM. That was just hard to watch, personally.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah I remember that but no clue where...I might be able to pull it together in an advanced search.

Gute has been fantastic, and often I think folks bring forth a few main things when criticizing him:

- No Super Bowl
- First Round Pick Critics
- Third Round Picks specifically

I've debunked all of these to a point, but also provided measured justification for critique as well in each. Very briefly...

Super Bowl thing....IT ISN'T AS EASY TO WIN AS MOST FANS IMPLY. Yes, he had an aging phenom in Rodgers...and to be fair he built rosters WELL worthy of pushing for one. Gute never laid an egg in the playoffs, the team did. Gute's job is to keep us relevant and he absolutely has done that...and barely hiccuped going from a HOF QB to a new QB WITH MASSIVE DEBT and somehow we barely stopped being a true contender.

First Round Picks....fans have to stop believing a couple things; that first round picks are sure things and that if you're not getting an All Pro you have failed. Most of these arguments are purely hindsight driven. It is RARE for a team to continually hit on first round picks...even more so if into the later third of the first round. Now that isn't to say you don't potentially get good or even excellent players...but fans expect the freaking Micah Parsons or Patrick Mahomes level guys are there for the taking every time Gute picks (which is just not true).

Gute has picked Jaire Alexander / Darnell Savage / Rashan Gary / Jordan Love / Eric Stokes / Devonte Wyatt / Quay Walker / Lukas Van Ness / Jordan Morgan / Matthew Golden

Of those guys that have at least two years of experience you have NFL starters that were proven to be that both here in GB and in many places...and Morgan could very well still prove to be an NFL Tackle once the chance is there and Golden IMO showed fully capable of being an NFL starter someday. That is NOT easy to have a run of guys like that....especially when only TWO were taken before pick 15....and the average pick place of all of those was.... 21.7 or the 22nd pick.

Third Round Picks....ah the curse....which IMO was lifted for sure in 2022...but here's his run of those guys...Oren Burks / Jace Sternberger / Josiah Deguara / Amari Rodgers / Sean Rhyan / Tucker Kraft / Ty'Ron Hopper / MarShawn Lloyd / Savion Williams....again despite GB not getting a return out of Burks a ton he has proved fully NFL caliber guy that apparently just didn't fit us or the time with us....but over half of these guys are on rosters, and playing many with us still. Hopper will have a shot this year.



Recency bias will have guys screaming Banks and Hobbs....honestly the very first time Gute didn't hit a triple or home run in free agency....and both were injured and each played better down the stretch. So while the immediate return can be graded as a like D or so...still a ton of time left if they are still here to change that. I still think Banks can be a solid average level LG for us (overpaid but still)....and Hobbs is insurance if Bullard plays out of GB cuz he is special IMO.

Good way to look at Banks and Hobbs. And yeah, recency bias here is obvious. Banks and Hobbs weren’t/aren’t busts. As always, time will tell.

And as for a 3rd-round curse, I just think that’s superstition. Gluten truly pulled a coup in getting Parsons. Losing Clark may be more impactful than the two first rounders. But I’d take that deal anytime.

And Gluten was making an “all in” bet by getting Parsons. SB or not, I don’t see how that deal can be anything but praised.

 

[adambr2]

30M APY between Aaron Banks and Sean Rhyan on the offensive line just ain’t it.

The love that Gute gets here… man I just don’t see it.

Some good moves here and there, like all GMs have, but at no point in the last 8 years have I thought, “man, this genius is just cooking.”

 

[tynimiller]

30M APY between Aaron Banks and Sean Rhyan on the offensive line just ain’t it.

The love that Gute gets here… man I just don’t see it.

Some good moves here and there, like all GMs have, but at no point in the last 8 years have I thought, “man, this genius is just cooking.”

If you cannot admit up until Hobbs and Banks Gute has been lights out in FA signings I don't think anything ever would make you admit it...

 

[adambr2]

If you cannot admit up until Hobbs and Banks Gute has been lights out in FA signings I don't think anything ever would make you admit it...

I never said otherwise. McKinney was a homerun. Jacobs was a double or a triple. I never said he’s batting .000.

Who else do you have on your list that qualifies him as a “lights out” GM in free agency?

 

[OldSchool101]

I never said otherwise. McKinney was a homerun. Jacobs was a double or a triple. I never said he’s batting .000.

Who else do you have on your list that qualifies him as a “lights out” GM in free agency?

What about Love?

Let’s get more current. What about Freeing up $11M and netting a RD4 2024 selection for Rashan?

 

[adambr2]

What about Love?

Let’s get more current. What about Freeing up $11M and netting a RD4 2024 selection for Rashan?

I do think that the fact that we got nothing out of Love’s rookie contract (paying market FA value now) needs to be weighed into the strength of the pick. Even so, I agree that anytime you can find a franchise QB late in the 1st, it’s a great value.

Regarding Gary — to clarify — you think we should give our General Manager a big win for salvaging a 4th round pick and a 17 million dollar dead cap hit for his own 1st round #12 overall pick because he wasn’t good enough to keep anymore?

It beats losing him for nothing, I’ll grant that, but giving him an attaboy seems like a huge stretch to me.

 

[tynimiller]

I never said otherwise. McKinney was a homerun. Jacobs was a double or a triple. I never said he’s batting .000.

Who else do you have on your list that qualifies him as a “lights out” GM in free agency?

Free Agency? Has it really been so long folks cannot remember his grand slam year of bringing in Preston Smith, Zadarius Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner all in the same year?

2018 he had to play the bargain bin but Muhammad Wilkerson / Jimmy Graham / Tramon Williams were about as good as you could do with the money we had.

2020 he got excellent bargains while being restrained money wise and found Rick Wagner and Christian Kirksey

Wasn't able to really spend any until 2022 when he brought in Jarran Reed and Keisean Nixon

Those are the only "actual contract" type dudes really of note good or bad.

 

[adambr2]

Free Agency? Has it really been so long folks cannot remember his grand slam year of bringing in Preston Smith, Zadarius Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner all in the same year?

2018 he had to play the bargain bin but Muhammad Wilkerson / Jimmy Graham / Tramon Williams were about as good as you could do with the money we had.

2020 he got excellent bargains while being restrained money wise and found Rick Wagner and Christian Kirksey

Wasn't able to really spend any until 2022 when he brought in Jarran Reed and Keisean Nixon

Those are the only "actual contract" type dudes really of note good or bad.

Amos, and the Smiths, were all good, for very short spurts. I can get on board with Turner, too. I don’t think I’d put any in the “home run” signing, category.

Many of these are just throwing out the names of whoever we signed and giving Gute credit for it, respectfully. I’ve literally never heard anyone take the position that Jimmy Graham ended up being a good investment for us.

 

[tynimiller]

Amos, and the Smiths, were all good, for very short spurts. I can get on board with Turner, too. I don’t think I’d put any in the “home run” signing, category.

Many of these are just throwing out the names of whoever we signed and giving Gute credit for it, respectfully. I’ve literally never heard anyone take the position that Jimmy Graham ended up being a good investment for us.

Yup we are just gonna be opposites sides of the coin entirely. If that (Smiths/Amos/Turner) year cannot get the nod of being not just a homerun but grand slam I have zero clue what you have expectation wise in Free Agency. He went out and instantly didn't just get four starters but dudes that immediately played VERY WELL for us and many of those their entire contract signed.

You're using hindsight 100% to judge it, Rodgers wanted Graham and we didn't have much money, Graham was serviceable and didn't suck but also wasn't good arguably either. If a team like GB signs someone and remains a playoff team and they are starting level player it has to be acknowledge as a good signing even if it isn't great or the hopes of the highest potential not being reached.

So wait, me listing the guys that he signed over the years that started for us and kept us relevant in the NFL is just blindly tossing names out and such....nope not the case - Jimmy is a perfect example of me not just cherry picking his dynamite signings....but ignore that if you want.

 

[adambr2]

Yup we are just gonna be opposites sides of the coin entirely. If that (Smiths/Amos/Turner) year cannot get the nod of being not just a homerun but grand slam I have zero clue what you have expectation wise in Free Agency. He went out and instantly didn't just get four starters but dudes that immediately played VERY WELL for us and many of those their entire contract signed.

You're using hindsight 100% to judge it, Rodgers wanted Graham and we didn't have much money, Graham was serviceable and didn't suck but also wasn't good arguably either. If a team like GB signs someone and remains a playoff team and they are starting level player it has to be acknowledge as a good signing even if it isn't great or the hopes of the highest potential not being reached.

So wait, me listing the guys that he signed over the years that started for us and kept us relevant in the NFL is just blindly tossing names out and such....nope not the case - Jimmy is a perfect example of me not just cherry picking his dynamite signings....but ignore that if you want.

I’m not ignoring anything. Graham was not a good investment. It doesn’t matter if Rodgers wanted him. Rodgers was not the GM. Of course it’s a hindsight argument. All free agents signings are judged in hindsight by whether they worked out or not. That’s why the McKinney one looks so good. It worked out.

We are just debating. I don’t know why you get worked up and passive aggressive anytime someone sees things differently than you. I agree that many of these names you listed are good signings. Whether they were “home runs” in your eyes or mine is entirely a subjective measurement.

Nowhere have I said that Gute is a “bad” GM. I just think he gets a little overrated here. I think he is probably about average which generally checks out because we have been an average to slightly above average team the last few years. I think hopefully, a healthy Parsons will give us a chance to be better than that, but one of the other pass rushing investments that Gute has made needs to step up for that to happen.

 

[gopkrs]

Just a comment on hindsight. How else can you judge a free agent signing?

 

[adambr2]

I guess the summary of my feelings on Gute is that he does very well finding “contributors” (Reed, Doubs, Walker, Nixon, just naming a few), and much less well finding true impact players.

 

[adambr2]

Just a comment on hindsight. How else can you judge a free agent signing?

You can’t. I don’t understand that point at all. (“Oh, you’re only calling it a bad signing after the fact because it didn’t work out.”)

Well. Yeah.

 

[tynimiller]

Just a comment on hindsight. How else can you judge a free agent signing?

Especially the years funds were tight one has to take into consideration at the time what could be gathered, otherwise it can (not always) form a dishonest opinion of a signing IMO.