Brian Gutenkunst FA and Draft Grades

[tynimiller]

I’m not ignoring anything. Graham was not a good investment. It doesn’t matter if Rodgers wanted him. Rodgers was not the GM. Of course it’s a hindsight argument. All free agents signings are judged in hindsight by whether they worked out or not. That’s why the McKinney one looks so good. It worked out.

We are just debating. I don’t know why you get worked up and passive aggressive anytime someone sees things differently than you. I agree that many of these names you listed are good signings. Whether they were “home runs” in your eyes or mine is entirely a subjective measurement.

Nowhere have I said that Gute is a “bad” GM. I just think he gets a little overrated here. I think he is probably about average which generally checks out because we have been an average to slightly above average team the last few years. I think hopefully, a healthy Parsons will give us a chance to be better than that, but one of the other pass rushing investments that Gute has made needs to step up for that to happen.

Don't care enough personally to get worked up over it honestly. If you poled the league of GMs and knowledgeable football folks in the industry and asked on a scale of 1-10 what the year he signed the Smiths / Amos and Turner would be in their opinion I would almost bet my life not a single person NOT a Bears fan gives you feed back of less than an 8 or 9...and many would say 10 because I don't think any GM can realistical expect to hit on all guys in the manner and with the means (funds) Gute did that year.

As of right now it's the polar opposite (nearly) to if you polled those same minds on the Banks and Hobbs signing year....I bet you're not getting anything over a 4 right now.

 

[adambr2]

Especially the years funds were tight one has to take into consideration at the time what could be gathered, otherwise it can (not always) form a dishonest opinion of a signing IMO.

Yeah I just don’t agree with this at all. Graham cost 3/30. It’s not like we scraped the bottom of the bargain bin for him.

When you sign a guy cheap for 2/5, and he doesn’t work out, I totally agree that you judge that much differently than a major investment that doesn’t work out. But that doesn’t seem to be what you’re arguing here.

You can carry cap over year to year. You’re never compelled to spend 10M a year on a guy just because that’s what is available.

 

[adambr2]

Don't care enough personally to get worked up over it honestly. If you poled the league of GMs and knowledgeable football folks in the industry and asked on a scale of 1-10 what the year he signed the Smiths / Amos and Turner would be in their opinion I would almost bet my life not a single person NOT a Bears fan gives you feed back of less than an 8 or 9...and many would say 10 because I don't think any GM can realistical expect to hit on all guys in the manner and with the means (funds) Gute did that year.

As of right now it's the polar opposite (nearly) to if you polled those same minds on the Banks and Hobbs signing year....I bet you're not getting anything over a 4 right now.

Okay, well you can’t poll them. Like I said, it’s a subjective argument. If you want to give them an 8 or 9, and I give them a 7 or 8, does it really matter? Again, I never argued that Gute hasn’t had some solid acquisitions. He has been here over 8 years, I would hope he has had some.

 

[tynimiller]

Yeah I just don’t agree with this at all. Graham cost 3/30. It’s not like we scraped the bottom of the bargain bin for him.

When you sign a guy cheap for 2/5, and he doesn’t work out, I totally agree that you judge that much differently than a major investment that doesn’t work out. But that doesn’t seem to be what you’re arguing here.

You can carry cap over year to year. You’re never compelled to spend 10M a year on a guy just because that’s what is available.

We were never going to pay him the fullness of that contract and everyone seeing the structure knew this, which is why this is another example of how when we see signings we cannot just ust he gross figures cuz almost always one if not two years are used purely to inflate numbers.

Graham was for sure not insanely gifted guy he was in his first three/four years BUT he'd still had averaged 682 yards in the three years at SEA before coming to us...and the year prior to coming he had 10 TDs. He was still an NFL level recevier and worthy target.

We paid him right around $19M in two years or 9.5M/Yr (his first season cap hit was under $6M for us).

That year we needed a TE to come in and looking back Eric Ebron likley might have been the better option but it was a weak TE group that year with Trey Burton getting the most guaranteed money.

I wasn't a fan of it myself at the time, but it was a noteworthy signing of real money which is why I listed it initially as part of the discussion.

 

[gopkrs]

I was glad to get Graham that year and was hoping for great results. If I was a GM; I would have made a bad mistake. It may not be fair, but he's paid to make good choices imho

 

[tynimiller]

I was glad to get Graham that year and was hoping for great results. If I was a GM; I would have made a bad mistake. It may not be fair, but he's paid to make good choices imho

I concur, it was a weak class and I likely do it too I'd grade the Graham signing considering it all from available guys, contract, production a C or C+.

 

[DoURant]

So let me get this straight...

(1) Gary was projected to get cut for no return.
(2) Gute proceeds to bamboozle Jerry Jones out of a 4th Rd pick in 2027, 2 days before free agency starts.
(3) Packers responsible for 17M in dead cap, but add 11M onto this year's cap.
(4) Packers also add 31M onto next year's cap.

Conclusion is Gute sucks, because they gave Gary that contract in the first place.... nevermind what just transpired in the Packers favor.

 

[tynimiller]

So let me get this straight...

(1) Gary was projected to get cut for no return.
(2) Gute proceeds to bamboozle Jerry Jones out of a 4th Rd pick in 2027, 2 days before free agency starts.
(3) Packers responsible for 17M in dead cap, but add 11M onto this year's cap.
(4) Packers also add 31M onto next year's cap.

Conclusion is Gute sucks, because they gave Gary that contract in the first place.... nevermind what just transpired in the Packers favor.

I believe you summarized that as some say "to a 'T'!"

 

[adambr2]

So let me get this straight...

(1) Gary was projected to get cut for no return.
(2) Gute proceeds to bamboozle Jerry Jones out of a 4th Rd pick in 2027, 2 days before free agency starts.
(3) Packers responsible for 17M in dead cap, but add 11M onto this year's cap.
(4) Packers also add 31M onto next year's cap.

Conclusion is Gute sucks, because they gave Gary that contract in the first place.... nevermind what just transpired in the Packers favor.

No one says Gute sucks. That’s a strawman argument.

A 4th is better than a cut.

Giving a GM a big pat on the back for salvaging a 4th round pick and a 11M in cap savings for a 17M dead cap hit for his very own 1st round mistake at #12 is absolutely wild to me. It would be different if Gary was part of the previous regime. That was Gute’s handpicked guy.

It’s like watching my kid trash her room but then praise her for making her bed.

I guess a football comp would be like saying John Lynch is a genius for getting a 4th round pick for Trey Lance from the Cowboys.

 

[gopkrs]

So let me get this straight...

(1) Gary was projected to get cut for no return.
(2) Gute proceeds to bamboozle Jerry Jones out of a 4th Rd pick in 2027, 2 days before free agency starts.
(3) Packers responsible for 17M in dead cap, but add 11M onto this year's cap.
(4) Packers also add 31M onto next year's cap.

Conclusion is Gute sucks, because they gave Gary that contract in the first place.... nevermind what just transpired in the Packers favor.

As to #2. There may have been other teams out there asking about Gary. But I don't think it was not a top notch draft pick at that spot. For me the 2nd contract, although probably on the high side, we needed to do. We'd been grooming him for 4 years and his 1st couple years were him learning pro football.

 

[DoURant]

No one says Gute sucks. That’s a strawman argument.

A 4th is better than a cut.

Giving a GM a big pat on the back for salvaging a 4th round pick and a 11M in cap savings for a 17M dead cap hit for his very own 1st round mistake at #12 is absolutely wild to me. It would be different if Gary was part of the previous regime. That was Gute’s handpicked guy.

It’s like watching my kid trash her room but then praise her for making her bed.

I guess a football comp would be like saying John Lynch is a genius for getting a 4th round pick for Trey Lance from the Cowboys.

I don't consider Gary a "mistake". Unfortunately he had a very poor 2nd half of last season, and we parted ways. So the 2nd contract didn't work out, that happens in business. At least Gute succeeded in recouping some of that contract, by not fulfilling the next 2 years entirely.

 

[adambr2]

I don't consider Gary a "mistake". Unfortunately he had a very poor 2nd half of last season, and we parted ways. So the 2nd contract didn't work out, that happens in business. At least Gute succeeded in recouping some of that contract, by not fulfilling the next 2 years entirely.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on that. I think Gary was a mistake in being a high 1st round pick that did not live up to the potential of his draft status on his rookie deal, and when he finally did start to do some things, did not live up to the price of his second contract.

Similarly drafted players in that draft who went off the board right after Gary — Wilkins, Lindstrom, Burns, Lawrence, were all much better picks.

 

[DoURant]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on that. I think Gary was a mistake in being a high 1st round pick that did not live up to the potential of his draft status on his rookie deal, and when he finally did start to do some things, did not live up to the price of his second contract.

Similarly drafted players in that draft who went off the board right after Gary — Wilkins, Lindstrom, Burns, Lawrence, were all much better picks.

Well at least we can agree on something... we will agree to disagree.

 

[tynimiller]

No one says Gute sucks. That’s a strawman argument.

A 4th is better than a cut.

Giving a GM a big pat on the back for salvaging a 4th round pick and a 11M in cap savings for a 17M dead cap hit for his very own 1st round mistake at #12 is absolutely wild to me. It would be different if Gary was part of the previous regime. That was Gute’s handpicked guy.

It’s like watching my kid trash her room but then praise her for making her bed.

I guess a football comp would be like saying John Lynch is a genius for getting a 4th round pick for Trey Lance from the Cowboys.

He is also a guy that had a massive injury and everyone knows he was never the same. Sucks.

If Parsons (God I hope not) comes back not what he used to be, the Parsons trade was still one you do every day. Injuries suck and cannot be predicted.

Now for anyone reading I'm not saying Gary was incredible but he was awesome and projecting towards being one of the say top 15 or so edge guys just out of that top elite tier that usually only has a few (2-4 or so) a season....and was NEVER the same post-injury.

 

[OldSchool101]

I do think that the fact that we got nothing out of Love’s rookie contract (paying market FA value now) needs to be weighed into the strength of the pick. Even so, I agree that anytime you can find a franchise QB late in the 1st, it’s a great value.

Regarding Gary — to clarify — you think we should give our General Manager a big win for salvaging a 4th round pick and a 17 million dollar dead cap hit for his own 1st round #12 overall pick because he wasn’t good enough to keep anymore?

It beats losing him for nothing, I’ll grant that, but giving him an attaboy seems like a huge stretch to me.

We cut loose of a player who in my mind lived up to a late Day 1 selection. Recouping a 4th on the way out. Beyond what I thought anyway.

It’s not an admission of failure. It’s an admission he’s not a $25Mil talent is all. It’s as much about the $$ and Cap hit as it is about anything IMO if we could erase everything and sign Gary to a 2yr $30Mil type deal I’d do it in a NY minute.

 

[CarryTheG14]

We cut loose of a player who in my mind lived up to a late Day 1 selection. Recouping a 4th on the way out. Beyond what I thought anyway.

It’s not an admission of failure. It’s an admission he’s not a $25Mil talent is all. IMO if we could erase everything and sign Gary to a 2yr $30Mil type deal I’d do it in a NY minute.

Not at all. Gary is a solid first rounder. Not a bust at all, and we got him through his prime. You can't complain

 

[OldSchool101]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on that. I think Gary was a mistake in being a high 1st round pick that did not live up to the potential of his draft status on his rookie deal, and when he finally did start to do some things, did not live up to the price of his second contract.

Similarly drafted players in that draft who went off the board right after Gary — Wilkins, Lindstrom, Burns, Lawrence, were all much better picks.

See that’s a cheap shot there. There are just as many Defenders that fizzled ahead of him. Clelin Ferrell, Devin Bush to name a few. Lindstrom? Did he convert to Defense? Because if we want to open it up we can include guys like TE etc and there’s lots of much worse players I can counter with starting in the Top 5 drafted.

Don’t take it from me though. This is not a Green Bay generated article. Notice the grade Gary was given by Walter after 5 seasons? Keep in mind this was before he reached his 2024 Probowl status.

2019 NFL Draft Re-Grades – WalterFootball

walterfootball.com

 

[adambr2]

We cut loose of a player who in my mind lived up to a late Day 1 selection. Recouping a 4th on the way out. Beyond what I thought anyway.

It’s not an admission of failure. It’s an admission he’s not a $25Mil talent is all. It’s as much about the $$ and Cap hit as it is about anything IMO if we could erase everything and sign Gary to a 2yr $30Mil type deal I’d do it in a NY minute.

#12 overall is not “late day 1.”

 

[adambr2]

See that’s a cheap shot there. There are just as many Defenders that fizzled ahead of him. Clelin Ferrell, Devin Bush to name a few. Lindstrom? Did he convert to Defense? Because if we want to open it up we can include guys like TE etc and there’s lots of much worse players I can counter with starting in the Top 5 drafted.

Don’t take it from me though. This is not a Green Bay generated article. Notice the grade Gary was given by Walter after 5 seasons? Keep in mind this was before he reached his 2024 Probowl status.

2019 NFL Draft Re-Grades – WalterFootball

walterfootball.com

It’s not a cheap shot at all. It’s simply saying there were better players that went shortly after Gary. Yes of course there were busts that went ahead of him, as there are in any draft. Do we really want to compare our organizational process to the Raiders?

A cheap shot would have been bringing up guys before Gary like Ed Oliver, Josh Allen, etc, that we had no shot at.

 

[adambr2]

Well at least we can agree on something... we will agree to disagree.

And there’s nothing wrong with that! So long as neither of us is presenting it as “you’re simply wrong and I’m simply right”, there’s nothing wrong with disagreeing.

I totally get in sports, it’s cliche to rip the guys in charge. “He sucks, he also sucks, fire them all.”

If I were presenting it that way, I’d understand the pushback. But I don’t, I’m careful to avoid extreme viewpoints on one side or another unless I really believe them. In this case, I don’t.

Whether we believe we are truly better than this or not, recent years suggest we are around the 13th-14th best team in the league. Obviously we all want more but for right now? That’s where we’ve shown we are at.

Rather than the criticisms that the guys in charge often get, it often seems to be on the other extreme here — we believe our guys are among the best, even if the results don’t reflect it.

I’m not here to say Brian Gutekunst sucks. I also don’t think he’s among the best. I think calling him the 13th or 14th best in the league is totally fair.

 

[CarryTheG14]

And there’s nothing wrong with that! So long as neither of us is presenting it as “you’re simply wrong and I’m simply right”, there’s nothing wrong with disagreeing.

I totally get in sports, it’s cliche to rip the guys in charge. “He sucks, he also sucks, fire them all.”

If I were presenting it that way, I’d understand the pushback. But I don’t, I’m careful to avoid extreme viewpoints on one side or another unless I really believe them. In this case, I don’t.

Whether we believe we are truly better than this or not, recent years suggest we are around the 13th-14th best team in the league. Obviously we all want more but for right now? That’s where we’ve shown we are at.

Rather than the criticisms that the guys in charge often get, it often seems to be on the other extreme here — we believe our guys are among the best, even if the results don’t reflect it.

I’m not here to say Brian Gutekunst sucks. I also don’t think he’s among the best. I think calling him the 13th or 14th best in the league is totally fair.

Who?

Outside of Roseman who are definitively better than him?

 

[tynimiller]

Who?

Outside of Roseman who are definitively better than him?

Group of friends just discussed this I will apologize after 6 I don't recall exact order but we at least went:

1 Howie Roseman (unanmimous)
Tie at 2 between Les Snead and Brett Veach were argued for variety of reasons
4 Brian Gutekunst
5 Eric DeCosta
6 John Schneider (recency bias made a few want him 1 or 2 LOL)

I know Brad Holmes and John Lynch were the two next but don't recall order

In case folks were wondering I was the lone Packer fan in this group although another guy they are his "NFC" team behind his Bills. Most were Patriot and Chief fans.

 

[adambr2]

Who?

Outside of Roseman who are definitively better than him?

I would rank Schneider better for sure. Wolfe. Snead. Lynch, Veach. Probably Holmes and Gladstone.

Again, this is my subjective personal viewpoint and won’t be everyone’s.

 

[OldSchool101]

It’s not a cheap shot at all. It’s simply saying there were better players that went shortly after Gary. Yes of course there were busts that went ahead of him, as there are in any draft. Do we really want to compare our organizational process to the Raiders?

A cheap shot would have been bringing up guys before Gary like Ed Oliver, Josh Allen, etc, that we had no shot at.

My point in Gary is I MYSELF would grade him worthy of a Top 20-25 selection, i can see where it was misleading so sorry there.

Cheap shot may not be a best term. Let’s call it Monday Morning rating against probably the 2 or 3 best RD1 selection of a Draft from 7 drafts ago.
I thought it was interesting Cherepinsky initially graded the Gary selection “D”. Harsh right?! Then after 2019? An F!!! Wow.!
So I think it’s pretty apparent this isn’t a fan favorite of Rashan Gary at Walter! Lol
Yet look at his 5 year grade? What does a guy have to do to go from F grade that didn’t even meet D grade projection and then do a 180 flip 5 seasons later get an A grade??

If Gary’s Cap hit was $20Mil and his Cap Savings to trade was $3.5Mil and He’d still be getting ready for Spring training in Green Bay.

Btw while it’s true about $17mil dead or whatever for Gary. It’s not a new #. That’s a conglomeration of pushing $Cap forward to build a Roster across several years. It’s a known fact that the contracts that free up the most Cap with restructures are often your bigger $$ deals. It’s a natural fiscal flow year to year so it’s not all on Rashan imo.

Also the only thing that really matter in real time on a contract concerning cap is where we’re we at yesterday coming into FA in Cap.. and where are we at this moment. That $17Mil is called Sunk, water under bridge, whatever for a reason.
Green Bay 100% just added + $10.9Mil cap space to their Cap tally.

 

[adambr2]

Group of friends just discussed this I will apologize after 6 I don't recall exact order but we at least went:

1 Howie Roseman (unanmimous)
Tie at 2 between Les Snead and Brett Veach were argued for variety of reasons
4 Brian Gutekunst
5 Eric DeCosta
6 John Schneider

I know Brad Holmes and John Lynch were the two next but don't recall order

In case folks were wondering I was the lone Packer fan in this group although another guy they are his "NFC" team behind his Bills. Most were Patriot and Chief fans.

Don’t know if this discussion happened before or after Seattle’s run but the job Schneider did in the last year to make it happen was masterful.

I am 100% weighing conference and Super Bowl championships when evaluating GMs. Not everyone will feel the same and that’s fine.