2024 Draft Prospect Discussions

[tynimiller]

I think some of the mocks allow you to make very unrealistic trades. I was ******** around with one and ended up with 17 picks this year and 6 additional picks for 2025 while managing to not draft any picks out of original rounds. They must think Arizona, Jacksonville, Chicago, and the Chargers have very stupid GM's.

Correct, and what is worse is folks allow whether an engine grants a trade as validation of the deal...it's mind boggling.

 

[tynimiller]

I like Mike Sanrstil of Michigan on Day 3.

I like Edgerin Cooper with the 2nd Round 2 pick,

Safeties I like are Nubin, Kinchens, Bullock and Smith

Tackles if you have to take someone beyond Mims you better be looking for a RT only.

With 2 picks in Round 3 if you can get him Blake Corum looks like the real deal at RB.

Sanrstil is arguably the best pure slot corner in this draft, if he makes it past the fourth I will right this second say he is the best value vs pick in the draft. I don't even need to know any other pick LOL

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think some of the mocks allow you to make very unrealistic trades. I was ******** around with one and ended up with 17 picks this year and 6 additional picks for 2025 while managing to not draft any picks out of original rounds. They must think Arizona, Jacksonville, Chicago, and the Chargers have very stupid GM's.

Much like those "Free easy online game", they sure keep us coming back to get their clicks, don't they!

 

[tynimiller]

So I deep deep dove into safeties that are on the top of my board...Nubin, Kinchens, Hicks, Bullard, Bishop....these five (other than DeJean) have been my top 5 safeties since about Oct/Nov time frame but they've shifted some as to who and how strong I think each is.

While measurables may shift my thoughts some, I don't think the order I have these in will change - measurables to me typically confirm or strengthen thoughts but rarely change them massively.

#1 Kamren Kinchens - He is locked in as my #1. I'm going to bring up a player comp that I do so VERY hesitantly, because I strongly believe this player had the chance of being arguably the best at his position in Packer history....Kinchens reminds me so strongly of Nick Collins coming out of Bethune-Cookman.

- Closing Ability - The first thing that pops to me is this mans downhill or jump ball closing explosion seems quicker than at any other time he closes on the field. It's almost like his body can produce a higher gear when he sees a ballcarrier break through the line or the ball is in the air more so than even if a receiver slips behind a corner and he has over the top help and has to close. Kinchens plays the ball, and does so with an anger almost that I always saw in Nick - until the ball is possessed by the offense, Kinchens 100% feels that ball is his.

-Body for hitting - While he is highly athletic and has excellent speed and acceleration (not elite but very good) none of that comes at a cost of body structure or hitting ability. He unlike say Bullock out of USC is not a pencil thin pool noodle trying to shoulder or ankle tackle everything (I'm exxagerating folks but Bullock is much more slender). At 5'11' 205lbs (Miami site claims 6 foot)

- Fluidity and Flexibility throughout movements - While his long speed isn't quite elite, meaning unlike say stokes who could make up for misstep or delayed reactions with his speed, Kinchens makes up for in his anticipation but also his body control. His hips are fluid and this allows hip to keep exceptional leverage typically when in coverage....his backpedal is IMO the best out of the safeties on this list and it is all of this that gives me that true center field of the future vibe from him.

- Ball hawking can cost him - His aggression and belief he can get the ball costs him at times and his growth in the knowledge and in game ability to know when to go for it and when to go for the receiver instead or just not overcommit will be the biggest hurdle IMO of him being just a starter vs potentially an all pro type safety in a few years.

If you want to see him in at his best IMO check out the film from this years' Texas A&M game...all phases he showed out. Both this year and last year Clemson games he was awesome, and last year's film that got me pumped for him even last year was Georgia Tech and the before mentioned Clemson game. That GTech game of 2022 Kamren scored guys a 96.8 overall PFF grade...but a 77.6 in Run defense, 73.6 Tackling grade and a 96.2 Coverage grade...just ludacris good day. He took over 400 snaps (57.2%) at FS vs 174 box and 117 slot in 2022 and this past year saw him again majority at FS with 379 (59.4%) FS vs 110 box and 113 slot.

Kinchens gets a first round stamp from me value wise I would say anything after 17 or so I would understand a team with need calling in his name.

#2 Tyler Nubin - He actually was my #1 for sometime until I really dove into Kinchens more, which for the record I think Kinchens overtook Nubin for me, not that I noticed anything I didn't like out of Nubin. Tyler honestly graded out better than Kinchens overall and at times against the likes of Nebraska, Iowa, MSU and Illinois IMO played elite level football for a safety this past year in 2023. So what makes him so good:

-Body structure - much like Kinchens, he is not a tiny dude...despite being 6'2' and only five pounds heavier than Kinchens, Nubin's frame is very well structured. But I will say Nubin exhibits more strength in his playstyle than Kinchens right now...I think both have adaquate strength, but Nubin especially when down in run support I was amazed at times how well he could anchor a block, read and arm strength made him able to shed the block and make a play.

- Hands - Excellent hands. If he gets his hands on the ball it is RARE it won't be going the other way.

- Run Support Now - To me if someone picks Nubin over Kinchens it is more with run support and down in the box safety help is desired, because that is where Nubin feasts on offenses and makes things happen....coverage in the slot is an added benefit because there is not a TE he has seen that would have the advantage over him - a massive vital trait more and more teams have to employ given the TE athleticism in the league nowadays.

- Needs better hips and feet - This is the only glaring issue with Nubin for me and is the sole reason I struggle to say he is worth Day1 capital. His feet and his fluidity in movement just isn't on par with where you would want it...but his football IQ and proven track record has showcased time after time he has figured out how to not let it be an issue. That would be the question, can he make it work at the next level if this aspect of his game doesn't grow. Personally I actually think if he hits the agility tests at the combine, it is confirmation that he isolated his biggest weakness and started attacking it - he does that he is right up there with Kinchens for me and I then have a 1a and 1b with VERY little difference in value despite me seeing one more of a center fielder type and the other box type - each would have similar if not exact same value overall.

2022 - he played 339 snaps at FS or 59.5% of his defensive snaps
2023 - he played 468 snaps at FS or 60.9 % of his defensive snaps


I won't drown everyone through rest but Jaden Hicks has become my #3 and Javon Bullard my #4 (his diverse offering of slot/safety play is very attractive though) and Cole Bishop is #5 with the surprise surprise possibly of my top ten being I think Oladapo from Oregon State might get my #6 overall...and since no one has probably looked or heard his name quick hit notes:

Kitan Oladapo is an older prospect having played five years. Has good size at 6'1' 217lbs according to most sources, Overall PFF grades: 2023 - 88.2 / 2022 - 79.9 / 2021 - 73.6. His run defense grade was ELITE level this past year but his coverage nearly was too at 84.4. One of his best games was the ND bowl game this season but also if able check out the Washington game against INSANELY good WRs and QB he was possibly the best player out there for the Beavers.

2023 snaps - 22% FS / 35.2% slot / 37% box
2022 snaps - 36.6% FS / 24.6% slot / 34.4% box

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Todd Princl]

I think some of the mocks allow you to make very unrealistic trades. I was ******** around with one and ended up with 17 picks this year and 6 additional picks for 2025 while managing to not draft any picks out of original rounds. They must think Arizona, Jacksonville, Chicago, and the Chargers have very stupid GM's.

Do these sites even remember next years trades from a year ago? I always thought that was silly when these trades pop up. I could care less about next year. But if there is a trade down that is realistic I do it.

 

[Todd Princl]

So I deep deep dove into safeties that are on the top of my board...Nubin, Kinchens, Hicks, Bullard, Bishop....these five (other than DeJean) have been my top 5 safeties since about Oct/Nov time frame but they've shifted some as to who and how strong I think each is.

While measurables may shift my thoughts some, I don't think the order I have these in will change - measurables to me typically confirm or strengthen thoughts but rarely change them massively.

#1 Kamren Kinchens - He is locked in as my #1. I'm going to bring up a player comp that I do so VERY hesitantly, because I strongly believe this player had the chance of being arguably the best at his position in Packer history....Kinchens reminds me so strongly of Nick Collins coming out of Bethune-Cookman.

- Closing Ability - The first thing that pops to me is this mans downhill or jump ball closing explosion seems quicker than at any other time he closes on the field. It's almost like his body can produce a higher gear when he sees a ballcarrier break through the line or the ball is in the air more so than even if a receiver slips behind a corner and he has over the top help and has to close. Kinchens plays the ball, and does so with an anger almost that I always saw in Nick - until the ball is possessed by the offense, Kinchens 100% feels that ball is his.

-Body for hitting - While he is highly athletic and has excellent speed and acceleration (not elite but very good) none of that comes at a cost of body structure or hitting ability. He unlike say Bullock out of USC is not a pencil thin pool noodle trying to shoulder or ankle tackle everything (I'm exxagerating folks but Bullock is much more slender). At 5'11' 205lbs (Miami site claims 6 foot)

- Fluidity and Flexibility throughout movements - While his long speed isn't quite elite, meaning unlike say stokes who could make up for misstep or delayed reactions with his speed, Kinchens makes up for in his anticipation but also his body control. His hips are fluid and this allows hip to keep exceptional leverage typically when in coverage....his backpedal is IMO the best out of the safeties on this list and it is all of this that gives me that true center field of the future vibe from him.

- Ball hawking can cost him - His aggression and belief he can get the ball costs him at times and his growth in the knowledge and in game ability to know when to go for it and when to go for the receiver instead or just not overcommit will be the biggest hurdle IMO of him being just a starter vs potentially an all pro type safety in a few years.

If you want to see him in at his best IMO check out the film from this years' Texas A&M game...all phases he showed out. Both this year and last year Clemson games he was awesome, and last year's film that got me pumped for him even last year was Georgia Tech and the before mentioned Clemson game. That GTech game of 2022 Kamren scored guys a 96.8 overall PFF grade...but a 77.6 in Run defense, 73.6 Tackling grade and a 96.2 Coverage grade...just ludacris good day. He took over 400 snaps (57.2%) at FS vs 174 box and 117 slot in 2022 and this past year saw him again majority at FS with 379 (59.4%) FS vs 110 box and 113 slot.

Kinchens gets a first round stamp from me value wise I would say anything after 17 or so I would understand a team with need calling in his name.

#2 Tyler Nubin - He actually was my #1 for sometime until I really dove into Kinchens more, which for the record I think Kinchens overtook Nubin for me, not that I noticed anything I didn't like out of Nubin. Tyler honestly graded out better than Kinchens overall and at times against the likes of Nebraska, Iowa, MSU and Illinois IMO played elite level football for a safety this past year in 2023. So what makes him so good:

-Body structure - much like Kinchens, he is not a tiny dude...despite being 6'2' and only five pounds heavier than Kinchens, Nubin's frame is very well structured. But I will say Nubin exhibits more strength in his playstyle than Kinchens right now...I think both have adaquate strength, but Nubin especially when down in run support I was amazed at times how well he could anchor a block, read and arm strength made him able to shed the block and make a play.

- Hands - Excellent hands. If he gets his hands on the ball it is RARE it won't be going the other way.

- Run Support Now - To me if someone picks Nubin over Kinchens it is more with run support and down in the box safety help is desired, because that is where Nubin feasts on offenses and makes things happen....coverage in the slot is an added benefit because there is not a TE he has seen that would have the advantage over him - a massive vital trait more and more teams have to employ given the TE athleticism in the league nowadays.

- Needs better hips and feet - This is the only glaring issue with Nubin for me and is the sole reason I struggle to say he is worth Day1 capital. His feet and his fluidity in movement just isn't on par with where you would want it...but his football IQ and proven track record has showcased time after time he has figured out how to not let it be an issue. That would be the question, can he make it work at the next level if this aspect of his game doesn't grow. Personally I actually think if he hits the agility tests at the combine, it is confirmation that he isolated his biggest weakness and started attacking it - he does that he is right up there with Kinchens for me and I then have a 1a and 1b with VERY little difference in value despite me seeing one more of a center fielder type and the other box type - each would have similar if not exact same value overall.

2022 - he played 339 snaps at FS or 59.5% of his defensive snaps
2023 - he played 468 snaps at FS or 60.9 % of his defensive snaps


I won't drown everyone through rest but Jaden Hicks has become my #3 and Javon Bullard my #4 (his diverse offering of slot/safety play is very attractive though) and Cole Bishop is #5 with the surprise surprise possibly of my top ten being I think Oladapo from Oregon State might get my #6 overall...and since no one has probably looked or heard his name quick hit notes:

Kitan Oladapo is an older prospect having played five years. Has good size at 6'1' 217lbs according to most sources, Overall PFF grades: 2023 - 88.2 / 2022 - 79.9 / 2021 - 73.6. His run defense grade was ELITE level this past year but his coverage nearly was too at 84.4. One of his best games was the ND bowl game this season but also if able check out the Washington game against INSANELY good WRs and QB he was possibly the best player out there for the Beavers.

2023 snaps - 22% FS / 35.2% slot / 37% box
2022 snaps - 36.6% FS / 24.6% slot / 34.4% box

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

With his age, what round could you see Oladapo drafted? I could see taking a stab at him as a second safety drafted.

 

[tynimiller]

With his age, what round could you see Oladapo drafted? I could see taking a stab at him as a second safety drafted.

Kitan has two negatives that MAY control his future.

1 - is what you brought up his age...however every class now in this post Covid era has graduate fifth year type guys everywhere so less of an issue, BUT Gute has shown a tendency to the young for sure!

2 - His testing. Oladapo is a guy that I think may surprise some folks in his testing, if he tests very well it will illustrate there may be more of an untapped athlete in there than some are thinking is there. I happen to love him, but still think despite me being so high on him, will likely see me bringing him up as a target into the 5th I bet...

 

[PikeBadger]

Sanrstil is arguably the best pure slot corner in this draft, if he makes it past the fourth I will right this second say he is the best value vs pick in the draft. I don't even need to know any other pick LOL

Wait a second, what about Connor Beebe?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wait a second, what about Connor Beebe?

Cooper Beebe? The Guard?

 

[OldSchool101]

I think some of the mocks allow you to make very unrealistic trades. I was ******** around with one and ended up with 17 picks this year and 6 additional picks for 2025 while managing to not draft any picks out of original rounds. They must think Arizona, Jacksonville, Chicago, and the Chargers have very stupid GM's.

Sure. One of the Mocks (draft Buzz?)
allowed me to move up between 1 or 2 spots for a late 7th.
Can you imagine moving from a #25 to #15 for 6-7 future 7ths? Just using a 6th to move back 5 times. It’s obviously not realistic at all.

It’s still fun as heck to manipulate the trades. If your not careful every once in a blue moon a team will offer their #62 and #142
In exchange for your #58 and #129

 

[tynimiller]

Wait a second, what about Connor Beebe?

LOL Okay clearly I've overused that statement LOL

 

[PikeBadger]

Cooper Beebe? The Guard?

Yeah, him too.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Tyni,

I had a thought that I've mentioned in another thread somewhere. Do you think Stutsman translates more to an NFL Safety than an ILB? If so how do you rate him there based on what you've seen/heard/read?

 

[OldSchool101]

Correct, and what is worse is folks allow whether an engine grants a trade as validation of the deal...it's mind boggling.

Well technically if you are using their site, it is a validation of a deal in that site. Our opinion of the site and the deal being valid are 2 totally different things. To our personal standard I will offer and agree those trades might not be realistic. I will also offer that that works both ways and I’ve used at least 4 different sites dozens to hundreds of times. Quite Often trades are undervalued as much as overvalued.

Fans of the sport use the sites for various reasons. Maybe some folks are a little overzealous in their net picks. However these might as well be games. Should we now all feel guilty for playing games because they don’t align perfectly with reality? You might as well attack everyone for guessing ridiculous scores in our weekly contests. What’s the difference
I say if someone doesn’t like playing them, they should turn them off. I’m not sure that’s it’s your intent to make people look ignorant, but it sure comes across that way and it’s not the first time I’ve noticed it.
As I said before. You get information from the Same place everyone else does. Just because you regurgitate that information doesn’t make you any more qualified than any one else in here. If I’m not mistaken we’ve been fairly close lately on our draft contests. I barely look at that stuff and I guess as good as you do (within a few points or 1 pick etc). You should double or triple my results with all the time spent. Worse things going on in the sporting world than a few innocent interactive Mock drafts… that are free by the way!

PS. I’ve seen some absolutely crazy real life draft trades. They make the Mocks look conservative

 

[tynimiller]

Tyni,

I had a thought that I've mentioned in another thread somewhere. Do you think Stutsman translates more to an NFL Safety than an ILB? If so how do you rate him there based on what you've seen/heard/read?

I don’t have him on my board as he is going back to OU - if speaking to Danny

 

[tynimiller]

Well technically if you are using their site, it is a validation of a deal in that site. Our opinion of the site and the deal being valid are 2 totally different things. To our personal standard I will offer and agree those trades might not be realistic. I will also offer that that works both ways and I’ve used at least 4 different sites dozens to hundreds of times. Quite Often trades are undervalued as much as overvalued.

Fans of the sport use the sites for various reasons. Maybe some folks are a little overzealous in their net picks. However these might as well be games. Should we now all feel guilty for playing games because they don’t align perfectly with reality? You might as well attack everyone for guessing ridiculous scores in our weekly contests. What’s the difference
I say if someone doesn’t like playing them, they should turn them off. I’m not sure that’s it’s your intent to make people look ignorant, but it sure comes across that way and it’s not the first time I’ve noticed it.
As I said before. You get information from the Same place everyone else does. Just because you regurgitate that information doesn’t make you any more qualified than any one else in here. If I’m not mistaken we’ve been fairly close lately on our draft contests. I barely look at that stuff and I guess as good as you do (within a few points or 1 pick etc). You should double or triple my results with all the time spent. Worse things going on in the sporting world than a few innocent interactive Mock drafts… that are free by the way!

PS. I’ve seen some absolutely crazy real life draft trades. They make the Mocks look conservative

I think everyone can and should do as they want, I just think the engines drive a very narrow sighted narrative which warps people's perspective.

Just like when mocks would let you trade Rodgers and bring in essentially a Herschel Walker return...was just ignorant to believe IMO. I have to emphasize the in my opinion part, just as everyone has the right to believe these trades generated in engines are right, I or anyone else has the right to be critical. Of course not call names or insult someone, but speak against the logic of it or the trade specifically.

Your criticism is heard and doesn't go unnoticed however, love the board and try to provide discourse and information that is helpful.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think some of the mocks allow you to make very unrealistic trades. I was ******** around with one and ended up with 17 picks this year and 6 additional picks for 2025 while managing to not draft any picks out of original rounds. They must think Arizona, Jacksonville, Chicago, and the Chargers have very stupid GM's.

I was just playing around on the www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com site earlier and this trade (screen shot below) popped up as an offer from the Texans in round 2. Come on? Really? A team is going to give up ALL that to move up one spot? Just for S's & G's I accepted the trade offer to see who the computer thought the Texans were that desperate to get. They used the pick for WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[gopkrs]

I just saw a probably funky mock that had us picking 3 Michigan players in the 1st two days. And none of them were the guy I would like. The inside linebacker. I admit the only thing I know about him is what Daniel Jeremiah had to say. Sounded great to me although Jeremiah had him 2nd day and also 2nd inside linebacker.

 

[tynimiller]

I just saw a probably funky mock that had us picking 3 Michigan players in the 1st two days. And none of them were the guy I would like. The inside linebacker. I admit the only thing I know about him is what Daniel Jeremiah had to say. Sounded great to me although Jeremiah had him 2nd day and also 2nd inside linebacker.

Junior has the tools and traits to be a stud, young and athletic from a proven school. He does check a lot of typical GB boxes.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I just saw a probably funky mock that had us picking 3 Michigan players in the 1st two days. And none of them were the guy I would like. The inside linebacker. I admit the only thing I know about him is what Daniel Jeremiah had to say. Sounded great to me although Jeremiah had him 2nd day and also 2nd inside linebacker.

No doubt things will change between now and the end of April. I did a mock where TE Brock Bowers fell to the Packers at 25. He might be one of my favorite players in the draft and what a tool he would make for MLF and the offense. But he isn't falling that far and if he did, with Musgrave and Kraft, I think Gute would try to find a team that wants Bowers and bilk them for all they had.

 

[Schultz]

Don't stop now. I am just putting butter on my popcorn.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

I don’t have him on my board as he is going back to OU - if speaking to Danny

Was unaware of that. Good catch Tyni.

 

[tynimiller]

Was unaware of that. Good catch Tyni.

This is also arguably one MASSIVE issue with mock draft engines. Many of them don't cleanse their files and prospects as kids declare to return and/or draft declaration date passes.

 

[shockerx]

Thinking the new DC is going to get "his guys" this draft. It sounds like he plays alot single high safety. I think he going to grab a safety at 25...maybe a reach...or a slight trade back to line up with Kitchens or Nubin. Which of those two guys would fit best with the new DC?

 

[tynimiller]

Thinking the new DC is going to get "his guys" this draft. It sounds like he plays alot single high safety. I think he going to grab a safety at 25...maybe a reach...or a slight trade back to line up with Kitchens or Nubin. Which of those two guys would fit best with the new DC?

I'd argue most of us on the board won't be able to decipher that with any definitive reasonings. I prefer Kinchens but both offer the type of play and so long as testing proves the range they'd both fit the overall assumption of need.