2023 round 2 pick #42: Luke Musgrave

[tynimiller]

Some players are durable. They don't miss more than 20% of their games over 3 or more seasons. Some guys miss even fewer game over even longer periods. While one major injury may be a one time event in an otherwise durable career, it may also prove to be a harbinger of things to come, especially since the NFL game is even more taxing on the body than college. Picking guys who have shown durability is one of the few ways a GM can minimize injuries. While durability shouldn't be the only metric, it should rank high enough so that picking guys with serious injury histories is a rather exceptional situation for high draft picks, even after they get "healthy" again for the combine. Gute appeared to throw caution to the wind. A case in point was Justin Harrel. He had health issues in college and never stayed healthy long enough in the pros to do much. If you want to roll the dice on guys who are supposedly past their injury problems, it may be a better choice to use lower draft picks.

Sorry I personally cannot compare the injury history of Harrell to Musgrave. Harrell was hurt a ton and I believe couldn’t do workouts if I recall correctly right?

 

[tynimiller]

FTR checked it appears he was able. Man I forgot he was only able to log two “seasons” at TENN and the one of course was only three games due to injury.

 

[Cornelius Weems]

What more can he do?? The dude literally ran 20.05 MPH in the senior bowl live play in pads and on a play?
He was able to do every physical test the combine, pro-day and private workouts threw at him.
Every team most likely through medical staff at him and clearly he passed those.

You have zero ability to know whether someone will get injured tomorrow...now if this was the second MCL or knee injury to the same one or such and was a reoccurring injury I'd begin to get concerned quickly.

I'm not talking about him, because unless he chose to get injured then there's no way I can blame him for that. Everyone has keep in mind though, in 4 years, he caught 47 passes, only 2 of them for touchdowns, but in fairness he wasn't a every down TE. He also only played in 20 (Oregon State) games total, so I'd be extremely pleasantly surprised if he turns out to be great, but his past (again 4 years) says he most likely won't.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Ok, but I do and most of the pundits analyzing the draft did too. Soooo....

It's fine if you disagree with me. I have a hard time considering a prospect who has had a total of 47 receptions as a polished receiver though, especially as he has had some issues with drops as well. He was off to a great start in 2022 because suffering an injury and impressed at the Senior Bowl so there's definitely reason for optimism as well.

 

[thequick12]

Ok, but I do and most of the pundits analyzing the draft did too. Soooo....

It's fine if you disagree with me. I have a hard time considering a prospect who has had a total of 47 receptions as a polished receiver though, especially as he has had some issues with drops as well. He was off to a great start in 2022 because suffering an injury and impressed at the Senior Bowl so there's definitely reason for optimism as well.

Musgrave is polished in the getting open part, certainly. Apparently, he is not so polished in the catching the ball part. I personally think he's gonna clean that up

 

[Mondio]

His potential intrigues me, I can't say i've seen him play at all. I'm ok with limited college stats. TJ watt didn't have huge numbers, neither did Clay Matthews and TE comparable, I think Jimmy Graham only had like 17 catches in his college "career" but only played 1 year.

It's a crystal ball business. I hope theirs was working on draft day

 

[thequick12]

I'm sorry, but ,what? What constitutes a major injury? If an injury keeps you sidelined you know, no on field play for at least a couple of months (potentially 8 games) that can be VERY bad. In football, we always knew the most important ability, is availability. So I disagree with those first 2 sentences. IMO, this was a high risk, high reward situation. I personally want him to prove all the doubters wrong and hope him being hurt last year doesn't happen for us.

An acl is a major injury, if you reread that you'll realize I didnt say it wasnt. I said its not as bad as it used to be. ie recovery times have decreased significantly

I stand by the statement that an mcl is not a major injury, it is not

I do agree with the fact that availability is the best ability and that doesn't go for just football. If someone is the best in the world at something but theyre never available to do whatever that something is...then, yeah what good are they?

 

[Cornelius Weems]

An acl is a major injury, if you reread that you'll realize I didnt say it wasnt. I said its not as bad as it used to be. ie recovery times have decreased significantly

I stand by the statement that an mcl is not a major injury, it is not

I do agree with the fact that availability is the best ability and that doesn't go for just football. If someone is the best in the world at something but theyre never available to do whatever that something is...then, yeah what good are they?

Agreed on the availability part, which is one key point for him. If we remove his senior year and his freshman year, then he only played in 16 games... in two years, in which he caught 34 passes for 1 TD. I removed those years as he played for (Oregon State) in 4 total games, but I don't think that he'll be able to be available for us as just, given just those 2 seasons, he wouldn't finish a current NFL season. I think some people can get too wrapped up in player's potential, me I don't care what a player did once, sustainability is far more important to me. I'm only asking that he even be average, but with 47 catches over 4 years, would we even consider that to be a marker to be even an average TE in the NFL? Because that wouldn't even average out to a catch a game.

 

[AmishMafia]

Musgrave is our riskiest pick, IMHO. Boom or bust, with bust being a bit more likely. It was probably a tough decision, but I get it. If he hits he could be one of the more dominating TEs in the league. If he busts we wasted a pick we could have gotten a solid starter.

So what do you take?

90% chance on getting Ed west. Solid player.
10% Sternberger

Or

25% chance on getting George Kittle
20% Ed West
55% Sternberger

I'm swinging for the fences with Musgrave.

Injury is a big concern but so is his competiveness. Would like to see him fight more for YAC. I don't understand how easily he can be tackled. He seems to have good balance.

 

[OldSchool101]

Injury is a big concern but so is his competiveness. Would like to see him fight more for YAC. I don't understand how easily he can be tackled. He seems to have good balance.

I suppose injury is a concern for many players as very few leave college unscathed, so generally speaking yes. One comforting thing I can offer is he’s really only had 1 injury that was significant (this past season). Much of him not getting playing time was the rotation. The good part that comes with that is his overall mileage is low also.

I’m not sure which film you were watching that gave you the feeling he was easy to tackle, but once Musgrave is in motion, he looks pretty elusive after the catch (comparatively at TE) There are many examples of that in his limited portfolio. Watch how many guys he either makes miss or just flat out runs around/by them. Now,
I suppose you can say after the Defense missed their assignment, they go on to do a good job tackling him at the sideline or in the Endzone or another 13 yards downfield, when it’s far too late. But he travels some serious ground with the ball in his hands on the bulk of plays. Notice also, There were several times he got tackled off balance after making either an acrobatic catch or just flat out winning a contested ball.

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[Deleted member 6794]

Agreed on the availability part, which is one key point for him. If we remove his senior year and his freshman year, then he only played in 16 games... in two years, in which he caught 34 passes for 1 TD. I removed those years as he played for (Oregon State) in 4 total games, but I don't think that he'll be able to be available for us as just, given just those 2 seasons, he wouldn't finish a current NFL season. I think some people can get too wrapped up in player's potential, me I don't care what a player did once, sustainability is far more important to me. I'm only asking that he even be average, but with 47 catches over 4 years, would we even consider that to be a marker to be even an average TE in the NFL? Because that wouldn't even average out to a catch a game.

To be fair, Musgrave was extremely productive in the two games he played in last season, recording 11 receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown.

I’m not sure which film you were watching that gave you the feeling he was easy to tackle, but once Musgrave is in motion, he looks pretty elusive after the catch (comparatively at TE) There are many examples of that in his limited portfolio. Watch how many guys he either makes miss or just flat out runs around/by them. Now,
I suppose you can say after the Defense missed their assignment, they go on to do a good job tackling him at the sideline or in the Endzone or another 13 yards downfield, when it’s far too late. But he travels some serious ground with the ball in his hands on the bulk of plays. Notice also, There were several times he got tackled off balance after making either an acrobatic catch or just flat out winning a contested ball.

Musgrave only averaged 3.8 yards after the catch per reception. That's definitely not an impressive number.

 

[OldSchool101]

Here’s a good in depth to learn about our Version of our shot at a young “Jimmy Graham”

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[OldSchool101]

Another comparative to our stab at a our version of Jimmy Graham. Both were relatively low College production in comparison to their TE peers.

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From the Combine. These are Winners in like categories.

Musgrave:
Bench 19
Broad Jump 10’5”
20 Yd Split 2.62
10 Yd Split 1.54
Shuttle 4.41
Overall Score 9.78/10
Pedigree: Uncle Bill Musgrave (Browns)

Graham:
Size Score: Great
Vertical 38.5
3-cone 6.90
40 Yd 4.56

 

[milani]

Another comparative to our stab at a our version of Jimmy Graham. Both were relatively low College production in comparison to their TE peers.

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From the Combine. These are Winners in like categories.

Musgrave:
Bench 19
Broad Jump 10’5”
20 Yd Split 2.62
10 Yd Split 1.54
Shuttle 4.41
Overall Score 9.78/10
Pedigree: Uncle Bill Musgrave (Browns)

Graham:
Size Score: Great
Vertical 38.5
3-cone 6.90
40 Yd 4.56

Does anyone think Graham's early success had to do with Bress and Sean Payton to an extent?

 

[OldSchool101]

Does anyone think Graham's early success had to do with Bress and Sean Payton to an extent?

Yes. I think the curve would be more gradual with Love and Matt LaFleur.

Although if we recall Grahams first NFL season was somewhat limited. He had a great Rookie season though considering he was so raw. He exploded in his 2nd season. Obviously somewhat similar situation in limited playing time. Although Graham was more limited with just 1 season of College football at Miami.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Does anyone think Graham's early success had to do with Bress and Sean Payton to an extent?

I'm sure that was a factor.

I'm also confident Graham's athleticism and talent was a factor.

 

[tynimiller]

Musgrave will be attending the TE U put on by Kittle, Olsen and one other I'm forgetting.

 

[Poppa San]

Midseason status from https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/packers-rookie-power-rankings-midseason-addition

​

TE Luke Musgrave, second round​

In a star-studded tight end class, Musgrave was the fourth off the board behind Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid in the first round and Detroit’s Sam LaPorta and Las Vegas’ Michael Mayer in the second round.

With 27 catches for 249 yards and one touchdown, Musgrave in the entire tight end class ranks third in receptions, yards and yards after the catch and tied for second in touchdowns. He’s dropped only one pass.
...
Musgrave is on pace of 57 receptions. Among all tight ends in Packers history, that would rank third all-time behind Jermichael Finley (61) and Richard Rodgers (58). Already among rookies in Packers history, he ranks second in catches and yards behind Bubba Franks, who had 34 catches for 363 yards in 2000.

 

[milani]

Midseason status from https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/packers-rookie-power-rankings-midseason-addition

Not sold on him yet. But will we see a step up in year 2 like we did with Finley and Franks? I hope so.

 

[tynimiller]

Not sold on him yet. But will we see a step up in year 2 like we did with Finley and Franks? I hope so.

From a receiving perspective he is checking all the boxes for a rookie for sure…issue is he’s still not a great route runner nor does he block well at all….like borderline embarrassing sometimes, BUT here’s the thing just like how MVS after his rookie year quickly became our second best blocking behind Lazard in the WR room - Musgrave is often in position he just sucks technique wise. Just like MVS back in his rookie year.

I believe worst case Musgrave can be your Tonyan or Graham TE to a blocking style one - and in a two TE usage type system we have that can shine.