2023 Draft Talk

[tynimiller]

Come on, we all know that all one has to do is whisper "draft" into your ear and you become a kid named Ralphie mouthing “official Red Ryder, carbine action, 200-shot, range model air rifle, with a compass in the stock and this thing that tells time.”

I think there will be a ton of interest in the 2023 draft in this forum, if the Packers end up with a top 5 pick.

Guilty as charged. I'll be honest the sweet spot of this draft to still get what I consider elite prospect is right around that 14-16th area. Unless we start unloading some contracts and guys, I don't see our current situation leading me to want to hang on to a Top 5 pick so long as the package someone trades us is good...some could argue my scenario shouldn't have traded back in and just sit tight after the trade back....use 2023 as the last hoorah for Rodgers or true test of Love's future and have the insurance of two first rounders in 2024 for QB. Lot of directions and roads we might head down.

 

[tynimiller]

Good stuff, thanks. If they decide not to go QB round 1, draft Mayer out of ND. He looks like a legit pro TE.

In that trade back scenario I was hoping Mayer would make it but he didn't and was gone by 15.

 

[OldSchool101]

Last year Chicago was a 6 Win team and they traded their #7 overall to the Giants. I suspect at 6-11 (estimated finish). We’ll be picking around #8-9.

My approach would be to select a player at #8 overall IF there’s one at a primary position of need that I have slated the 8th or better in college ball. If not? I’d perfect 2 trades similar to what we did when we traded back n forth and selected J’aire Alexander, but acquired a Day1 selection in the next draft.

We should be able to stay inside a top #18 area and pick up an extra Day 2 selection this draft. Plus bank a Day1, 2024 selection.
—-The reason I like this staggered approach is it still gives us a Day 1 starter next year plus banks a 1st Rounder for 2024. That’s significant if 2023, 2024 are rebuild years and washing outstanding Capital.
—in addition we get 1 full season(2023) to look at Jordan Love. If he’s not our guy? We’ve got 3 Day 1 selections in 2024 to get whatever QB we desire. We likely trade 2 Day 1’s and move up hard, using that Round 1 pair to grab us a top 3-4 overall QB AND still have another later Day selection to boot.

I’d do everything possible to trade #12 to the AFC for anything that includes a top 18 area or better
+a Top 50 selection. That or 2 Day 1’s in 2023-2024.

If we work things correctly we could have
2023
#16 overall (Rodgers trade)
#18 overall (trade back)
#40 (natural)
#72 (natural)
#116 (natural)
Etc..

2024
#16 overall (estimated natural)
#20 overall (2023 trade back)
#25 overall (Rodgers trade)
#48 (natural)
#80 overall
#124 overall
Etc..

If Jordan hits ?? Watch out. We’d have 5 Day 1 selections playing into their 2nd and 3rd seasons in 2025, where you generally see marked improvement. Plus an open checkbook in FA.

 

[tynimiller]

Last year Chicago was a 6 Win team and they traded their #7 overall to the Giants. I suspect at 6-11 (estimated finish). We’ll be picking around #8-9.

My approach would be to select a player at #8 overall IF there’s one at a primary position of need that I have slated the 8th or better in college ball. If not? I’d perfect 2 trades similar to what we did when we traded back n forth and selected J’aire Alexander, but acquired a Day1 selection in the next draft.

We should be able to stay inside a top #18 area and pick up an extra Day 2 selection this draft. Plus bank a Day1, 2024 selection. The reason I like this staggered approach is it still gives us a Day 1 starter next year plus an extra very good Day 2 selection. Yet it gives us TWO Day 1 selections in 2024. That’s significant if 2023, 2024 are rebuild years and washing outstanding Capital.

I’d do everything possible to trade #12 to the AFC for anything that includes a top 18 area or better
+a Top 50 selection. That or 2 Day 1’s in 2023-2024.

If we work things correctly we could have
2023
#16 overall (Rodgers trade)
#18 overall (trade back)
#40 (natural)
#72 (natural)
#116 (natural)
Etc..

2024
#16 overall (estimated natural)
#20 overall (2023 trade back)
#25 overall (Rodgers trade)
#48 (natural)
#80 overall
#124 overall
Etc..

The Colts to me should be the AFC team wanting in the Rodgers sweepstakes.

 

[tynimiller]

Last year Chicago was a 6 Win team and they traded their #7 overall to the Giants. I suspect at 6-11 (estimated finish). We’ll be picking around #8-9.

My approach would be to select a player at #8 overall IF there’s one at a primary position of need that I have slated the 8th or better in college ball. If not? I’d perfect 2 trades similar to what we did when we traded back n forth and selected J’aire Alexander, but acquired a Day1 selection in the next draft.

We should be able to stay inside a top #18 area and pick up an extra Day 2 selection this draft. Plus bank a Day1, 2024 selection. The reason I like this staggered approach is it still gives us a Day 1 starter next year plus an extra very good Day 2 selection. Yet it gives us TWO Day 1 selections in 2024. That’s significant if 2023, 2024 are rebuild years and washing outstanding Capital.

I’d do everything possible to trade #12 to the AFC for anything that includes a top 18 area or better
+a Top 50 selection. That or 2 Day 1’s in 2023-2024.

If we work things correctly we could have
2023
#16 overall (Rodgers trade)
#18 overall (trade back)
#40 (natural)
#72 (natural)
#116 (natural)
Etc..

2024
#16 overall (estimated natural)
#20 overall (2023 trade back)
#25 overall (Rodgers trade)
#48 (natural)
#80 overall
#124 overall
Etc..

Honestly, it'd be a similar approach to what the Eagles did when they compiled so many solid picks.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

The Colts to me should be the AFC team wanting in the Rodgers sweepstakes.

I would add the Jets into this simply to give Wilson time to learn.

 

[tynimiller]

I would add the Jets into this simply to give Wilson time to learn.

It isn't out of the question - I just sense you don't give up on the second overall pick that fast and they may have lightning in White...either way I don't see them doing it just yet in 2023...I will say IF we do a trade with them, shoot send White (QB) back our way as our new back up.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Colts to me should be the AFC team wanting in the Rodgers sweepstakes.

Or the Raiders.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Colts to me should be the AFC team wanting in the Rodgers sweepstakes.

I would add the Jets into this simply to give Wilson time to learn.

Or the Raiders.

"Fellas....Fellas....hold on....everyone will have a chance to get in on the bidding for Rodgers Sweepstakes. Now sharpen your pencils and make those offers good ones, you are competing with a half-a-dozen teams."

 

[Magooch]

Yep, I don't know how realistic it actually is but I do think Rodgers still probably has more value in a potential trade than some may think.

The comparison is getting a bit tired out but again consider Russell Wilson. Again Russ (and a 2022 4th) was traded for Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, a 2022 1st, a 2023 1st, a 2022 2nd, a 2023 2nd, and a 2022 5th. And Wilson was not exactly lighting it up in his last season in Seattle:

64.8% completion
25 touchdowns (1.8 TD per game / 6.3% TD percentage)
6 INT (0.4 INT per game / 1.5% INT percentage)
7.8 yards per attempt / 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt / 7.11 ANY/A
103.1 passer rating / 54.7 QBR

Compared to Rodgers in 2022:
64.8% completion
21 TD (1.8 TD per game / 5.4% TD percentage)
9 INT (0.75 INT per game / 2.3 INT percentage)
6.8 yards per attempt / 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt / 6.03 ANY/A
92.9 passer rating / 41.3 QBR

Of course Rodgers is older and has his contract to contend with but it's not like Wilson was *dramatically* better before being traded - and in general I think just about everyone would agree that Rodgers is viewed as the better player overall at the end of the day. So I don't buy the idea that he'd only fetch a single 2nd or "we'd be lucky to get a late rounder for him" or any of that. Don't know exactly what it would look like but I suspect he would still fetch a decent return from a team who views themselves as being one QB away. I'm sure many might also look at the Matt Stafford trade and think "If we can just get that guy a change of scenery and a good supporting cast he can win us a Super Bowl" or similar.

But it will be interesting to see how it shakes out with Love. I wonder if it's not out of the question for us to decline picking up his option only to later agree to an extension down the line. I'm not sure he would get many great offers on the market so he might think that he could play himself into a good deal if he gets to start for a year for us. I guess that's probably a double-edged sword though as we'll likely still be contending with Rodgers' contract even if he's gone so may not be able to offer Love a more competitive deal yet. I don't really know the specifics, just thinking out loud.

I do think that if we do finish in a high draft spot and have a chance at a guy like Stroud or Young we'd have to trade down. Unless Love gets a significant run of games here in the next few weeks and is an unmitigated disaster they probably won't consider taking a QB and that's fine, it probably makes more sense to load up either way. You come back in a year and can either load up around Love or have the assets to move for a top QB the following year.

 

[tynimiller]

Rodgers trade value to me is either two Day1s and change or one Day1/two Day2s and change at the LEAST. I tend to believe it could be higher maybe, but that is the bottom I feel.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Unless Love gets a significant run of games here in the next few weeks and is an unmitigated disaster they probably won't consider taking a QB and that's fine, it probably makes more sense to load up either way.

This is why I feel that the next 5 games are a gift from the NFL Gods. Time to really get a good look at Love. Given the uncertainty that the Packers will no doubt face again in the offseason with Rodgers, now is the time to see what they have in Love.

 

[tynimiller]

This is why I feel that the next 5 games are a gift from the NFL Gods. Time to really get a good look at Love. Given the uncertainty that the Packers will no doubt face again in the offseason with Rodgers, now is the time to see what they have in Love.

And with the injury issues present with Rodgers, going to Love for the rest of the season isn't even a signal of being done with Rodgers - as a matter of fact it is as much of a protecting our best QB in house for 2023 - now whether that protects him for health here in GB or trade value elsewhere. I take it as a signal of doubt in Love if they don't go to him this year if at minimum when they are truly mathematically removed from the playoffs...which technically isn't yet.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Rodgers trade value to me is either two Day1s and change or one Day1/two Day2s and change at the LEAST. I tend to believe it could be higher maybe, but that is the bottom I feel.

Agreed, but obviously depends on the team and where those 2023 picks land you in the draft. I doubt a team with a top 5 pick is going to give it up or if they do, that would be about all they would be willing to trade for Rodgers.

If the Packers do decide to put Rodgers on the trading block, I am guessing that we are going to be hearing a lot of back channeling on who he is willing to play for and if that team isn't on his short list, he will retire. While he doesn't have a no trade clause, he will have the ability to steer a trade the way he wants it to happen.

 

[Magooch]

Rodgers trade value to me is either two Day1s and change or one Day1/two Day2s and change at the LEAST. I tend to believe it could be higher maybe, but that is the bottom I feel.

That's probably about where I would land too. I guess it will probably depend a bit on timing (although I know for us we also have a bit of time constraints for when it would make sense to trade) but as the draft approaches and teams start feeling more desperate/delusional/etc there will probably be more suitors convincing themselves Rodgers is their "answer" and they will largely be able to ignore what's been an underwhelming season from him. They'll tell themselves that he'll get healthy and have a new system and/or better weapons or whatever and will be back to the old Rodgers. And maybe they'll be right! Who knows. But I suspect there will be no shortage of FO's convincing themselves that he's their missing piece.

This is why I feel that the next 5 games are a gift from the NFL Gods. Time to really get a good look at Love. Given the uncertainty that the Packers will no doubt face again in the offseason with Rodgers, now is the time to see what they have in Love.

Yeah, to be honest I have to wonder if our FO isn't at least in part a little grateful for it too. I'm sure they wouldn't wish injury on Rodgers and would like to see him healthy but it also feels like they are probably feeling a bit like they're in between a rock and a hard place. Rodgers clearly hasn't been 100% and it's affecting his play and I would wager some would probably want to see him benched, if nothing else to rest up and be back to 100%. But at the same time they probably feel they can't bench him without pissing him off and blowing everything up and whatnot, so they're perhaps stuck playing a less than 100% Rodgers anyways. But if he actually has to miss time and can't just play through something then in a weird way that might solve some problems for some.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

And with the injury issues present with Rodgers, going to Love for the rest of the season isn't even a signal of being done with Rodgers - as a matter of fact it is as much of a protecting our best QB in house for 2023 - now whether that protects him for health here in GB or trade value elsewhere. I take it as a signal of doubt in Love if they don't go to him this year if at minimum when they are truly mathematically removed from the playoffs...which technically isn't yet.

So lets just say they decide to play Rodgers and they win the next 2 games, which is very plausible since it is the Bears and Rams. So now you are 6-8 and have to play the Dolphins and Vikings. What good have you done the team? Love is still a question mark, you most likely are out of the playoffs and you just screwed yourself out of picking in the top 2-10 of the draft. I just don't see how going through the motions of thinking you are a playoff caliber team is worth it at this point.

I have no problem seeing the Packers lose out, if they play Love and work in other young guys to adequately evaluate them and give them some valuable reps.

 

[tynimiller]

So lets just say they decide to play Rodgers and they win the next 2 games, which is very plausible since it is the Bears and Rams. So now you are 6-8 and have to play the Dolphins and Vikings. What good have you done the team? Love is still a question mark, you most likely are out of the playoffs and you just screwed yourself out of picking in the top 2-10 of the draft. I just don't see how going through the motions of thinking you are a playoff caliber team is worth it at this point.

I have no problem seeing the Packers lose out, if they play Love and work in other young guys to adequately evaluate them and give them some valuable reps.

If you play Rodgers it is an effort to show commitment to him in hopes he plays in 2023 because you still feel he is the best chance to win in 2023. That is reason #1 of only two I have.

#2 is that Rodgers has already informed the powers that be this is the final season and retirement is going to happen regardless of outcome of season - if that is the case I could see #12 and them having a hard time seeing his career end holding a clipboard or on IR.

There is no other logical reason IMO.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If you play Rodgers it is an effort to show commitment to him in hopes he plays in 2023 because you still feel he is the best chance to win in 2023. That is reason #1 of only two I have.

#2 is that Rodgers has already informed the powers that be this is the final season and retirement is going to happen regardless of outcome of season - if that is the case I could see #12 and them having a hard time seeing his career end holding a clipboard or on IR.

There is no other logical reason IMO.

While I agree with you on these 2 things, its about time that the Packers worried about the Packers and not Aaron Fricking Rodgers feelings. Makes no sense to me why they wouldn't play Love from here on out. Doing so accomplishes way more than just bending over again for Rodgers. If Rodgers didn't understand the move, then he is more self centered than I thought.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I hate to work Tyni up too much, but seeing this (remaining schedule of all teams) and comparing it to the current draft "standings", has me pretty excited. If the Packers lose their last 5 games, they are probably going to get the #2 pick in each round.

I say that because of the schedules of the 7 teams between the Packers and the Texans. The Packers play 2 of them (Rams and Bears) and the other 5 all seem to play each other or some pretty bad teams.

NFL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NFL teams based on the winning percentage of the opponents left on their schedule.

www.tankathon.com

 

[tynimiller]

I hate to work Tyni up too much, but seeing this (remaining schedule of all teams) and comparing it to the current draft "standings", has me pretty excited. If the Packers lose their last 5 games, they are probably going to get the #2 pick in each round.

I say that because of the schedules of the 7 teams between the Packers and the Texans. The Packers play 2 of them (Rams and Bears) and the other 5 all seem to play each other or some pretty bad teams.

NFL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NFL teams based on the winning percentage of the opponents left on their schedule.

www.tankathon.com

Oh I already knew this. I truthfully almost guarantee we end up in Top 10...I'm like 99% sure and I'm about 70% sure it will be a Top 6 pick.

 

[OldSchool101]

Oh I already knew this. I truthfully almost guarantee we end up in Top 10...I'm like 99% sure and I'm about 70% sure it will be a Top 6 pick.

Picking that high is not something we are used to at all.

Another less aggressive approach if we don’t see our guy (I’ll assume in that 6 range?) is to do a very slight trade back into that 11 overall.

You could trade a 6+114
Get 11 + 43 + swap Day3 rounds

Often teams will trade up 2+ Times to jockey into the top 3-5 selections for a QB. This Gets us back in the
11, 38,43,70 and resuming Round 5

I like that because you can get some fantastic players early second round.

 

[Heyjoe4]

"Fellas....Fellas....hold on....everyone will have a chance to get in on the bidding for Rodgers Sweepstakes. Now sharpen your pencils and make those offers good ones, you are competing with a half-a-dozen teams."

LOL Poker, good catch. I'm not convinced trading Rodgers makes sense. But we gotta move on from him sometime. We have five games until the Packers' season ends. Best to wait a while and once the season is over for everyone, decide how to move ahead.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

With the Steeler win last night, the Packers moved up another spot to #8 in the draft order.

Some good matchups this next weekend that could drastically change that in either direction. If the highlighted teams all win, The Packers will suddenly find themselves in the top 5 of the draft. Even if that doesn't happen, most of the games involve teams clustered around those top 15 picks, so wins by any of them help keep the Packers in the top 10.

- Packers (4-8) @ Chicago (3-9)
- Steelers (4-7) @ Atlanta (5-7)
- Jags (4-7) @ Lions (4-7)
- Browns (4-7) @ Texans (1-9-1)
- Broncos (3-8) @ Ravens (7-4)
- Seahawks (6-5) @ Rams (3-7)
- Chargers (6-5) @ Raiders (4-7)
- Colts (4-7-1) @ Cowboys (8-3)
- Saints (4-8) @ Bucs (5-6)

 

[tynimiller]

With the Steeler win last night, the Packers moved up another spot to #8 in the draft order.

Some good matchups this next weekend that could drastically change that in either direction. If the highlighted teams all win, The Packers will suddenly find themselves in the top 5 of the draft. Even if that doesn't happen, most of the games involve teams clustered around those top 15 picks, so wins by any of them help keep the Packers in the top 10.

- Packers (4-8) @ Chicago (3-9)
- Steelers (4-7) @ Atlanta (5-7)
- Jags (4-7) @ Lions (4-7)
- Browns (4-7) @ Texans (1-9-1)
- Broncos (3-8) @ Ravens (7-4)
- Seahawks (6-5) @ Rams (3-7)
- Chargers (6-5) @ Raiders (4-7)
- Colts (4-7-1) @ Cowboys (8-3)
- Saints (4-8) @ Bucs (5-6)

Bad thing is we play the Bears and then Bye and then the Rams....really good chance we win both IMO.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Bad thing is we play the Bears and then Bye and then the Rams....really good chance we win both IMO.

I'm thinking an equal chance that we lose 1 or both games too.

I was pulling for the Packers to win on Sunday night, but at this point, losses mean better draft picks (in all rounds), so I am ok with the losses. I don't believe that wins in 2022 translate to motivation in 2023. Actually, now that I really think about it, losing might be the motivation that the FO and MLF need to make coaching changes, as well to let some of these players know, improvement is needed. The worse thing that happens to the Packers is a 5 game winning streak and complacency sets in and no changes are made.