2022 Salary Cap Riddle/Thread/Discussion

[Pokerbrat2000]

The void years allow a signing bonus to be spread out for the duration of the contract.

Only on paper. Once that first year is up and the contract goes into the voidable phase, its an automatic dead cap hit of whatever was pushed out, player removed from books.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Still nothing has made sense for voiding years beyond one because they all come due then anyways.

The reason they do it, is so that in that first year, the cap hit is light and they are really just pushing the hit out one year.

I think you are going to be seeing a lot of these types of contracts this year for a lot of players in the NFL. The Packers won't be able to field a competitive team without pushing more money out.

 

[Pkrjones]

The Packers won't be able to field a competitive team without pushing more money out.

That's the "rip the band off" approach to getting your cap healthy. IF Gute blows-up the team and absorb all of the void-year & dead money hits in '22 while amassing '22 & '23 draft picks GB will be competitive in '23. IF Gute considers more void-year contracts GB will be snug-against the cap for years to come AND no guarantees to be playoff-worthy, anyway.

I'm in the "blow up" camp, take a beating for a year and come out young, talented (due to additional draft picks) & cap-healthy in '23.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm in the "blow up" camp, take a beating for a year and come out young, talented (due to additional draft picks) & cap-healthy in '23.

As am I, unless Aaron has plans to play for 3+ more years. Then you have to figure out a balance of keeping enough players to still be really good, but not to be so overleveraged, that you only get one shot at it. If A-rod has 1 or 2 feet out the door, then yes, let it rip, shed all the dead cap that you can! I would rather see the Packers go 3-14 and 6-11 for 2 years and then all the pieces are coming together to compete again.

If Love is the QB in 2022, I envision 3 or 4 new WR's and TE's and definitely some new faces on the defense.

 

[tynimiller]

The reason they do it, is so that in that first year, the cap hit is light and they are really just pushing the hit out one year.

I think you are going to be seeing a lot of these types of contracts this year for a lot of players in the NFL. The Packers won't be able to field a competitive team without pushing more money out.

I get why the one void year. But there is from what everyone has posted ZERO reason to have additional void years since the contract comes void and the total remaining hits occur for any additional voided years.

 

[tynimiller]

you have to think of it in terms of the initial year …not the year it voids… if you add multiple void years that initial signing signing bonus in year 1 only hits the cap at a number divisible by the number of void years added. If you only added one void year it would only reduce the cap hit of the bonus in half. It is simply a gimmick to get the cap hit down in that first year even though it is all most likely coming due a year later.

The void years allow a signing bonus to be spread out for the duration of the contract. Example: player receives a $10Mil signing bonus for 1 year salaried contract totalling $12Mil, with 4 void years. Player gets $12Mil for the 1 year of service.
Year 1 = $2Mil salary, $2Mil pro-rated SB. Cap hit of year 1 = $4Mil.
Year 2 = $0 Salary, $2Mil pro-rated SB. Cap hit of year 2 = $8Mil.
Year 3 = $0 Salary, $2Mil pro-rated SB.
Year 4 = $0 Salary, $2Mil pro-rated SB.
Year 5 = $0 Salary, $2Mil pro-rated SB.

Your way, with only 1 void year...
Year 1 = $2Mil salary, $5Mil pro-rated SB. Cap hit of year 1 = $7Mil
Year 2 = $0 Salary, $5Mil pro-rated SB. Cap hit of year 2 = $5Mil

OH my word I feel so dumb. These two posts clicked with me - it makes sense now.

 

[Half Empty]

OH my word I feel so dumb. These two posts clicked with me - it makes sense now.

Darn, by catching it yourself, you cost me a chance for a snarky post, and with this weather, there's not much else to do.

 

[sschind]

OH my word I feel so dumb. These two posts clicked with me - it makes sense now.

Good thing too. I was about to explain it to you one more time and I know no one has time to read any of my explanations.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

OK....now that Tyni has that down, can we go over how many draft picks it cost the Packers to draft Jason Spriggs?

 

[tynimiller]

It is infuriating how simple it was when I overlooked the bonus structure impact. Dangit

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It is infuriating how simple it was when I overlooked the bonus structure impact. Dangit

I think some of the salary cap sites are a bit confusing too. Then to make it worse, if you Google a certain players contract info., half the time the reporter has it wrong too.

I saw an article the other day that a reporter was listing potential trades the Packers will need to make. Rodgers, Adams, Turner and Bahk! He stated something like " it would cost the Packers $4M on the cap to trade Bahk, but the savings might well be worth it!" What savings?

 

[swhitset]

OK....now that Tyni has that down, can we go over how many draft picks it cost the Packers to draft Jason Spriggs?

1 is more than he was worth

 

[sschind]

It is infuriating how simple it was when I overlooked the bonus structure impact. Dangit

imagine how we felt

 

[McKnowledge]

Take one of the 2nds you get (or lower) and throw it at Baltimore for sign and trade for Huntley.

I would definitely send a 3rd rounder for Huntley. In the event Rodgers leaves I would feel much better with Huntley on the roster competing with Love.

 

[milani]

Purpose of this thread is for specific discussions relating to the 2022 Cap situation Green Bay finds themselves in.

Discuss contracts, possible directions we may have to take or could take in order to make things work. Obviously this thread will change and evolve as injuries, extensions, cuts and even performances and statements by players come forth between now and next year.

Many of us enjoy flexing our Cap Space hats if you will in hypothetical situations where Aaron elects to stay....or we let him and Adams walk and try to reload quick for Love. This is the thread for that.

I will attempt to keep this original comment fresh with 2022 Cap Scenario/Figures

Presently as of 11/17/2021

Overthecap has Green Bay listed as having a 2022 liabilities of $249,767,656 which leaves us over by $36,905,400 - which most concerning is that is for 40 players only.
Spotrac

So can we cut say 40 mill and replace it with undrafted rookies? Could look like the 2005 Packers.

 

[milani]

I would definitely send a 3rd rounder for Huntley. In the event Rodgers leaves I would feel much better with Huntley on the roster competing with Love.

Yes. I like that Huntley kid. Just hope he can avoid becoming a Teddy Bridgewater in the local hospital. I think he learns fast and reads defenses well for a young kid. And he is accurate. If we can give him a TE like the Ravens have we can move the sticks.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Packers brass: "we dont want aaron rodgers to go!"

Every move made last two years: "yes we do! We are just trying to save face for a string of bad decisions that led us to be losing our 4 time mvp, when we didnt have to."

 

[Pkrjones]

Packers brass: "we dont want aaron rodgers to go!"

Every move made last two years: "yes we do! We are just trying to save face for a string of bad decisions that led us to be losing our 4 time mvp, when we didnt have to."

... or maybe Gute is keeping leverage on any trade deal? What trade package return on AR would he get if they came out and said "we have no intentions of keeping Aaron a Packer in '22"?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Imagine a scenario where Aaron Rodgers continues his downward trajectory from 2019 into 2020 and 2021 and or he decides to retire. I can imagine that many of the same fans bashing Gute for drafting Love, would be bashing him had this occurred with Rodgers and Love had not been drafted. I can hear them now "Gute should be fired, he obviously had an aging QB, what was he thinking by not having someone ready to go?" Basically, a GM that has helped to field a 13 win team 2 seasons in a row, is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

Being a GM means you map out a plan for the teams future. Those maps include contingency plans, in case things happen different than the "as planned" view. It is easy to criticize those plans years later, but those plans weren't made with the benefit of having a crystal ball.

 

[gbgary]

here ya go...

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[OldSchool101]

Imagine a scenario where Aaron Rodgers continues his downward trajectory from 2019 into 2020 and 2021 and or he decides to retire. I can imagine that many of the same fans bashing Gute for drafting Love, would be bashing him had this occurred with Rodgers and Love had not been drafted. I can hear them now "Gute should be fired, he obviously had an aging QB, what was he thinking by not having someone ready to go?" Basically, a GM that has helped to field a 13 win team 2 seasons in a row, is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

Being a GM means you map out a plan for the teams future. Those maps include contingency plans, in case things happen different than the "as planned" view. It is easy to criticize those plans years later, but those plans weren't made with the benefit of having a crystal ball.

It’s also easy to be critical as a fan. Most of have zero idea what has gone on behind closed doors. Casual fans are largely short term thinkers also, we don’t have a clue how to build a roster for today AND the future.
A few of us would be successful for a season as GM, but ultimately just spiral downwards long term and get kicked out of the league. Of course, huh hummm (clearing throat) I’d be the clear exception (same thing I told my X when we met)

 

[ARPackFan]

here ya go...

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Thanks for the link. Interesting watch and the point is made over & over that by March 16 the Packers need to be under the cap (top 51 contracts). As it stand now, the Packers are approximately $50M over and will need to clear ~$70M from the 2022 cap in order to franchise tag Adams assuming no long term deal is reached.

So can we cut say 40 mill and replace it with undrafted rookies? Could look like the 2005 Packers.

The team that Ron Wolf said was comprised of NFL Europe talent.

 

[milani]

Thanks for the link. Interesting watch and the point is made over & over that by March 16 the Packers need to be under the cap (top 51 contracts). As it stand now, the Packers are approximately $50M over and will need to clear ~$70M from the 2022 cap in order to franchise tag Adams assuming no long term deal is reached.



The team that Ron Wolf said was comprised of NFL Europe talent.

Well. Yeah. Samkon Gado, who really was not too bad. But that was Thompson's takeover year. Team was in cap trouble going into that year as well. But still even with injuries TT could have produced a roster good enough to get to .500. After all he had a HOF QB just like we have today.

 

[tynimiller]

Purely estimations but Spotrac now has their calculation estimates up for some players of ours estimating their AVG annual salary value. Now they claim their formulas choose similar players based on their age, contract status, and statistical production compared to the player...I'll list the player/age, the salary and then the comparison players and their ages:

Rasul Douglas/26 - $9.2M/yr - Shaquill Griffin/25, Michael Davis/26, Mike Hilton/27, Bradley Roby/27...they predict a 4 year $33.1M contract or $8.27M/year deal

Robert Tonyan/27 - $10.8M/yr - Jonu Smith/25, Logan Thomas/29, Tyler Higbee/26, CJ Uzomah/26...they predict a 3 year $24.29M contract or $8.09M/yr

De'Vondre Campbell/28 - $6.2M/yr - Nick Kwiatkoski/26, AJ Klein/28, Jayon Brown/26, Eric Wilson/26...they predict a 1 year $5.75M deal

MVS/27 - $8.7M/yr - Randall Cobb/29, Keelan Cole/27, Kendrick Bourne/25, Sammy Watkins/27....they predict a 2 year $17.17M contract or $8.58M/year

Lazard/26 - $7.7M - Nelson Agholor/27, Keelan Cole/27, Sammy Watkins/27, Kendrick Bourne/25...they predict a 2 year $15.33M contract or $7.66M/year
*Lazard isn't a UFA, so merely included for observational purposes. He will not cost NEAR this much as a RFA...however many would argue Lazard offers more of a sure bet vs MVS as example, as he has consistently produced when in albeit always in a supporting type role with expected statistical production as such.

Another couple interesting examples of things is they estimate:

Adams at $25.9/M and getting a $130M/5year deal or $25.9M/year
Preston Smith they say market says is a $12.2M/year level player....our current hit from him will be $19.72M if nothing changes.
Z Smith they say market says is a $16.7M/year level player...our current hit will be $27.66M if nothing changes.


**Amended Lazard sentence as I accidentally said ERFA not RFA

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Robert Tonyan/27 - $10.8M/yr - Jonu Smith/25, Logan Thomas/29, Tyler Higbee/26, CJ Uzomah/26...they predict a 3 year $24.29M contract or $8.09M/yr

I noticed this one too and laughed. This kind of goes to show you how either out of whack or out of date some of their information is. I have to think they are coming up with this figure based on Tonyan's 2020 numbers. As well as not taking into account that he only had 1 big season and he will be coming off of a major knee injury.

Any team that signs Tonyan for that kind of money is either crazy or the Chicago Bears.