2020 Packers 2nd round pick: AJ Dillon, RB

[Dantés]

honestly wouldn’t surprise me if Dillon got majority of the reps and Jones was used as the complimentary back, which I think suits him better anyway

I would doubt that.

However, I would expect that the total number of rushing attempts would go up again.

From 2018 to 2019, they went from 333 rushing attempts to 411, a jump of 78.

Let's say that from 2019 to 2020, they jump just half that much-- about 40-- and end up around 450 rushing attempts.

You really don't want Jones above 225 if you can help it, and less would be ideal if you intend to keep him on a second contract. That would leave 225 carries to distribute to the rest of the options.

If Dillon hits out of the gate, I would think he would get at least 125 of them, if not more.

 

[tynimiller]

Dillon quickly positions GB to have a backup plan should Jones negotiations go south...but it also provides them the ability to afford paying Jones a decent amount and letting Williams walk. While Williams won't garner amazing money, he will garner some - and to a point deservedly so. He plays a great support role and in right system could easily by a #2 for a team until he hangs his cleats up really.

We cannot afford to keep both, but with Dillon and now Taylor (Memphis) coming in there is truly an argument that this could be Green Bay's way of having the capitol to spend on Jones when the rest of his backups are all on rookie contracts.

The moment I saw Dillon drafted a part of me instantly saw a trade coming in the future for a 6th or 7th rounder for Jamaal.

 

[GB psyco]

Yeah I just realized that it's probably Williams and Dexter that will likely be gone after this year, but I feel like our Oline is better at pass blocking than it is at run blocking.

Not with the guys we got in the draft, maybe not right away, but its coming

 

[OldSchool101]

I am shocked that some folks on here are not PUMPED about this guy being on the roster. Maybe we have PTSD of Eddie Tacobell Lacey eating his way out of GB and breaking the hearts of #27 jersey owners everywhere.

Listen up friends. AJ Dillion is 6’0 and 247 pounds of solid muscle. The dude ran a 4.53 40, jumped a 41” vertical and benched 23 reps. Let that sink in for a minute...to put that into perspective Aaron Jones at 5’9 209 pounds ran a 4.56 40 and jumped a 37” vertical.

Derrick Henry is honestly a poor draft comparison when you actually watch the film. Although their size and combine results were similar (AJ Dillion beat out Henry in almost every combine drill). A better physical comparison is LeGarette Blount, but with zero off the field concerns and attitude issues. This kid is a student of the game and a freak athlete.

You have to remember when reading scouting descriptions that scouts are employed by a team. Teams that lack a true RB1 would not find value in a complimentary back like AJ Dillion. They are looking for the Aaron Jones of the world (DeAndre Swift type player). Or they work for a team that has an offense where RB by committee is not an option (because they are paying the Zeke Elliots of the world far too much money). All I am saying kids is please watch the tape. I got to see this kid play live in probably 5-6 games. He’s one of the most fun college players I have ever witnessed live. He’s an immediate upgrade to Jamal and complimentary back to Aaron Jones. Please watch or re-watch his tape with the idea in mind that he’s going to be the packers #2 back. Don’t listen to what the scouting reports you read said, make your own opinion now that you know he’s a Packer.

...And do not forget he worked behind an offensive line that only had one player drafted in his career. Jonathon Taylor (Wisconsin), DeAndre Swift (Georgia), JK Dobbins (Ohio), and CEH (LSU) worked behind some pretty elite offensive lines, no?

While I also wanted a WR (actually I might’ve chanced Love falling to my pick). Then I would’ve went the best of WR, DT or LB round 2 and traded up some round 3 using a 5th-6th rounder for the remaining need.
Love was a “luxury” pick and after that we could’ve leaned with a “need” pick(s) round 2-4.

That said. They really think Dillon is going to contribute earlier than most fans think. It’s kinda like having a rookie Eddie Lacy type selection now paired with Jones, which when you start to think about that versatility gets your blood going. If he ends up looking good early on I think GB will use him more and more as the season progresses. We also have a pretty deep OL that’s position versatile and good blocking TEs to compliment that running attack.

Here’s the kicker. If we start running the ball ultra successful early, opposing teams will be forced to bring their bigger run D personnel in. That in turn opens things up in the passing game. If, by chance, just one of Funchess or EQ or Begelton or Lazard or really anyone not named Devante steps up their game an plays like a true #2. We should conceivably quietly sneak into that top 8-12 ranked Offense. But it would be an Offense that is much more balanced going into next December and some cold weather games. Fast forwarding: I think we can still win our division and finish in that 11-5 range and snatch a home game. If we get a game or 2 at Lambeau? I like our chances.
PS. Those that think we didn’t improve in 2020 at RB and this is Jamaal #2 all over again will be shocked when they see this kid ground n pound.

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[RepStar15]

PS. Those that think we didn’t improve in 2020 at RB and this is Jamaal #2 all over again will be shocked when they see this kid ground n pound.

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Keep in mind, the first missed tackle of the play against Louisville is Jaire Alexander. A guy I consider to be the best tackler on the packers defense ran into AJ Dillion's tree trunk legs and fell over like a small child right before he threw a grown man (LB) to the ground with one hand...I would bet my life that this guy is a fan favorite come January. Especially if the NFL season does not start until October, there will be MANY games played in Lambeau in January/Feb...No one is going to want to tackle this man in the cold. No one can tackle this man in the cold.

 

[Dantés]

Not with the guys we got in the draft, maybe not right away, but its coming

I know that Stepaniak especially is a really nasty, powerful run blocker, but if we are just being realistic-- these are 6th round picks. If just one of the bunch hits as a starting player, that's fantastic value. If it's 2 or 3, that's just crazy.

 

[tynimiller]

I know that Stepaniak especially is a really nasty, powerful run blocker, but if we are just being realistic-- these are 6th round picks. If just one of the bunch hits as a starting player, that's fantastic value. If it's 2 or 3, that's just crazy.

I think Hanson has the most starting potential given the teams' present situation with Linsley's contract expiring after this year and his consistency and strengths at center.

I've personally had Runyon circled as the next Lane Taylor for while now. If his arms were longer I'd say he transitions to the right side and plays tackle, despite being successful on the left side in college. He has a nasty streak in him, but nothing like his dad which many would argue wasn't nasty but dirty. If we get a serviceable Taylor type out of him that is much bigger than many realize.

Stepaniak's injury some say made him fall out of early Day 3...I'm quite unfamiliar with him beyond knowing his strength is oxen like. I suspect practice squad this year and then who knows how things shake out in 2021.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

After the Houston game I'm a little concerned that Dillon only got 5 carries. Is Gute batting 0 for 2 when it comes to RBs? Dexter Williams got no carries at all, so it seems like our true rotation is Jones, Williams, Ervin.

RB is typically seen as the position that has the quickest progression in the pros. As a 2nd Round Pick, and the "somewhat diminished" value of RBs in this passing league, is anyone else concerned as well?

 

[tynimiller]

I was mildly surprised, however with the two workhorses that pull our wagon primarily still ahead of him, I am gonna withhold judgement until 2021 when he no doubt will be our #2.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

After the Houston game I'm a little concerned that Dillon only got 5 carries. Is Gute batting 0 for 2 when it comes to RBs? Dexter Williams got no carries at all, so it seems like our true rotation is Jones, Williams, Ervin.

RB is typically seen as the position that has the quickest progression in the pros. As a 2nd Round Pick, and the "somewhat diminished" value of RBs in this passing league, is anyone else concerned as well?

I wouldn't let the 1 game bother you too much when it comes to Dillion. Dexter Williams on the other hand is a bust so far. I don't even remember him looking good in Preseason in 2019? He was toast trying to pass protect, he has 11 yards on 5 career carries and I don't remember seeing him do anything on special teams that makes me think he has a place there either. Bye bye Juice.

 

[Mondio]

I'm surprised Dexter is still on the team. I didn't htink there was a chance he'd make it thru camp. doens't seem to have it mentally or physically and he's shown my nothing to sway my opinion back the other way. It seems every opportunity, he just confirms what I've been thinking about him.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I wouldn't let the 1 game bother you too much when it comes to Dillion.

While this is just one game, we're also almost at the halfway point at the season. While I wasn't necessarily expecting him to be hot out the gate, for a 2nd Round Pick I expected it to slowly manifest. So far he hasn't done that.

 

[GleefulGary]

Dillon was a pick for the future. We simply haven’t seen enough to say one way or the other.

Dexter was a late round pick. They rarely work out. Pretty hard for me to call any 6-7th round pick a bust.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While this is just one game, we're also almost at the halfway point at the season. While I wasn't necessarily expecting him to be hot out the gate, for a 2nd Round Pick I expected it to slowly manifest. So far he hasn't done that.

I agree with you that thus far Dillion and the rest of the 2020 draft class has been sh*t. Martin looked good on Sunday, so we have that and of course.....we always have LOVE!

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

The future is now though. Williams' contract expires this year. If Jones were to go down, or we let him walk it could be another repeat of the years we had post Eddie Lacy, but without the convenience of Jordy and Cobb.

 

[GleefulGary]

The future is now though. Williams' contract expires this year. If Jones were to go down, or we let him walk it could be another repeat of the years we had post Eddie Lacy, but without the convenience of Jordy and Cobb.

Jones and Williams contracts are set to expire. Hence why they drafted Dillon.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

You don't need to repeat what I just said.

Dillon is hardly getting any carries, and the few opportunities he gets haven't been inspiring. But if Gute/MLF want to hedge their futures on a relative unknown in 2021 then hopefully it works out for them and the team as a whole.

 

[Jerellh528]

Our draft class has done exactly nothing to help the team, especially upsetting because we get literally zero production from any picks in rounds 1-“4”. Martin was our 5th rounder so I guess that’s something. At this rate, it woulda been more beneficial to trade our entire draft class to move up a few spots to take one of the WRs like Jefferson.

 

[easyk83]

I agree with you that thus far Dillion and the rest of the 2020 draft class has been sh*t. Martin looked good on Sunday, so we have that and of course.....we always have LOVE!

Deguara flashed some potential before injury and with Dillon, well he's not going to establish himself with only an odd carry or two a game. I suspect that this year wasn't a good year for rookies, what with the messed up schedule and lack of preseason games to put up film and prove that they're reliable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I suspect that this year wasn't a good year for rookies, what with the messed up schedule and lack of preseason games to put up film and prove that they're reliable.

Valid point and one I have said about Jordan Love, so I should be consistent and apply it to all rookies. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[tynimiller]

Our draft class has done exactly nothing to help the team, especially upsetting because we get literally zero production from any picks in rounds 1-“4”. Martin was our 5th rounder so I guess that’s something. At this rate, it woulda been more beneficial to trade our entire draft class to move up a few spots to take one of the WRs like Jefferson.

You have to look at the entirety of the draft. While the top pick isn't and we shouldn't want him to, provide anything for a few years...let's delve into pick by pick:

-Dillon, this was a pick more about 2021 than 2020 for sure. Clearly gifted and talented back but behind two NFL starting caliber backs this season. The Houston game was a little surprising, but no logically driven person will evaluate him based on that game alone.

-Deguara, it was VERY apparent he was going to be a cog used in the MLF system - and was uniquely gifted to do a role none of our other TEs are. Had he not seen injury, he 100% would have been a contributor...somedays it might have been like Ervin - pivotal role but not on statlines.

-Martin, injury curbed his production (but made possible another guy to blossom...more on that down farther). Kamal before the injury was getting the praise of coaches, teammates and limited spectator reports from practices. The Houston game illustrated that praise had substance to it. If he continues to see the field for 25% or more of the defensive snaps, it is clear he exceeded his 5th round spot picked and the expectations which go with that.

-Runyon, while he hasn't had to see the field much - which is a good thing, the lack of hesitancy by the staff when he has to be plugged in is VERY promising. By all accounts Runyon is expected during his rookie contract to probably become a starter...6th round...you CANNOT logically expect more.

-Jake Hanson, much like some other picks Hanson is a pick for the future not the present. He projects to be a VERY capable backup C - maybe guard...but he was selected leave no doubt to battle for Center with Patrick and maybe someone not on the roster when Linsley leaves in 2021.

-Stepaniak, honestly this is the only guy drafted I wasn't familiar with in all of my pre-draft research and mocks. He is INSANELY strong, but we won't know till full health occurs and 2021 is here...flyer of a late rounder on a guy they project as a possible steal.

-Vernon Scott, ball hawk and athletic Safety out of TCU. If you watched an TCU games you are quite familiar with his name and playmaking abilities. Has some body growth to do, but he is already seeing snaps both on defense and in STs...for a 7th rounder at a position we have surefire guys ahead of hiim...what more do you want?

-Garvin, the instant 2019 Gary replacement, who replaced 2019 Fackrell on the charts. Garvin is illustrating daily why many of us were screaming his name entering the last round. In 3 of the last 4 games for the Packers, Garvin has been in there 25% or more of the snaps on the defensive side of the ball. Expectations met and exceeded.

UDFAs - Many forget these dudes are 100% part of the draft class...just because they weren't drafted in the official rounds...our scouts and staff have to pounce and go off of their knowledge to find folks.

-Krys Barnes - DUDE is arguably outside of Jaire just exploding off the stat sheets. He's getting a tackle every 4 plays he is out there and has led the team nearly every game he plays in tackles. He has been incredible and is the UDFA gem of the team and could be argued the NFL this year.

-Black, safety not many pay attention to but he is stealing some time and snaps albeit on a small scale. Expectations were passed a long time ago on him.

 

[Jerellh528]

With how short RB lifespans are, I figure a backups backup rb didn’t have to be selected this season with a second round pick. A more developmental late round pick at rb for next season, sure, but a second round Rb should ideally come in and start immediately. The rest of the draft is whatever, not getting anything out of them. Look at them as “optimistic” as you want, this draft class has given us nothing at all and long term prospects for them are tepid at best.

 

[tynimiller]

With how short RB lifespans are, I figure a backups backup rb didn’t have to be selected this season with a second round pick. A more developmental late round pick at rb for next season, sure, but a second round Rb should ideally come in and start immediately. The rest of the draft is whatever, not getting anything out of them. Look at them as “optimistic” as you want, this draft class has given us nothing at all and long term prospects for them are tepid at best.

The entire last half of your comment ignores actual fact. If you wish to ignore actual snap counts, actual game play than so be it. I wasn't happy with how we drafted Day 1 and Day 2 either, but letting it completely smokescreen one from reality is just not right.

 

[GleefulGary]

It’s kind of funny.

People said similar things last year about the draft too.

Our first round pick isn’t doing anything! What a waste!

Now, luckily Savage and Jenkins played well last year to stave off the people, but otherwise, pretty much nothing.

Now? Gary is showing up every week. He’s getting pressure, he’s holding the edge, he’s playing well. People have differing opinions on Savage. Jenkins is playing well, per usual. Sternberger has, imo, been a disappointment, but he is contributing. KeKe has come on strong lately, he’s our best interior pass rusher sans Clark. The rest are your typical late round fillers.

But! Rounds 1-5, every draft pick is contributing. All of them are improving! It takes some time for these guys to play well. Judging after one season is a foolish endeavor. Judging after 5 or 6 games is even worse. I know everybody wants to be the first to have the “right” take, but it takes some time! Everybody develops differently, and this year in particular is very, very, odd in terms of what the rookies had to adjust to. You absolutely cannot discount that.

So is this a good draft? A bad draft? I have no idea! There are some players I like in it. There are some players that I personally would not have chosen. They can still obviously be good players. It’s going to take some time, and we’ll have to be just a little bit patient.

 

[tynimiller]

It’s kind of funny.

People said similar things last year about the draft too.

Our first round pick isn’t doing anything! What a waste!

Now, luckily Savage and Jenkins played well last year to stave off the people, but otherwise, pretty much nothing.

Now? Gary is showing up every week. He’s getting pressure, he’s holding the edge, he’s playing well. People have differing opinions on Savage. Jenkins is playing well, per usual. Sternberger has, imo, been a disappointment, but he is contributing. KeKe has come on strong lately, he’s our best interior pass rusher sans Clark. The rest are your typical late round fillers.

But! Rounds 1-5, every draft pick is contributing. All of them are improving! It takes some time for these guys to play well. Judging after one season is a foolish endeavor. Judging after 5 or 6 games is even worse. I know everybody wants to be the first to have the “right” take, but it takes some time! Everybody develops differently, and this year in particular is very, very, odd in terms of what the rookies had to adjust to. You absolutely cannot discount that.

So is this a good draft? A bad draft? I have no idea! There are some players I like in it. There are some players that I personally would not have chosen. They can still obviously be good players. It’s going to take some time, and we’ll have to be just a little bit patient.

Oh for sure, I would not label the entire draft excellent or really any rating, at this stage early all you can do is look at whether they're getting snaps, are they contributing on those snaps or has their time simply not come yet.

I think like last year 2021 could make the 2020 class seem even better....however, I still think even if every player except Love become starters at some point folks will still label this draft an utter bust.