2020 Packers 2nd round pick: AJ Dillon, RB

[Favre>Rodgers259]

So is Gute's new strategy is to Draft a RB every 3 years, so they can go off and potentially be HOFs somewhere else? At some point you gotta pay these guys something.

 

[Mondio]

So is Gute's new strategy is to Draft a RB every 3 years, so they can go off and potentially be HOFs somewhere else? At some point you gotta pay these guys something.

no you don't. Give me a big dollar RB that has panned out in the past decade and i'll give you 3 that haven't. No way I'd give a RB of slight build a 10+ million dollar deal.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

So you're advocating letting Aaron Jones walk and hope we can win a Super Bowl with Dillon? Or wait for the next RB drafted in 2022 to help Jordan Love win a title?

 

[Mondio]

So you're advocating letting Aaron Jones walk and hope we can win a Super Bowl with Dillon? Or wait for the next RB drafted in 2022 to help Jordan Love win a title?

If the cost is 10 million per year, absolutely. Thank you for your service and carry on.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just think a guy like Jones is worth it....at least $8-9M.

Dillon set to wear No. 28 for the Green & Gold

 

[King of Jeans]

aaron jones is not worth anywhere close to that

 

[LambeauLombardi]

No one is saying that you cant criticize the picks or anything. But 80% of the fans act like little children that didnt get any candy from their parents. They act completely irrational and insult the players picked, the front office and everyone not being as irrational as themselves about the picks .

The point is that fans are angry because Packers are clearly going a new way and that basically means that Rodgers wont be here much longer. People only like the players they wanted to be picked by Gb and that are mostly the flashy skill players. Packers have a different big board and plan for the franchise so while we dont neccessarily agree on the picks( I dont and I dont act like a child about it), it is stupid to trash everyone involved. Draft classes should be judged after 3 years, not after 1 season or 2 days after being picked. The people that do that are the only clowns, not the people acting patient and rational.

Now to the pick. I like what Dillon brings to the table and with the sight on the 2021 free agency, it makes a lot of sense to pick him. The NFL obviously was much higher on the RB class as the media experts and fans were, so it makes sense to pick him this early. I am not a big fan of drafting a RB this early but ,like the Love pick, I can see why they did it.

The Packers have draft picks in positions of need from the last few drafts that they bet on panning out. Namingly Keke, Jackson, Burks, Gary, EQ and MVS. Bold strategy and we will see how it works.

1)I've never and won't insult directly the players that were picked. I will show frustration toward the GM if I think it's a bad move. I feel bad for Jordan Love getting put in this situation.

2)I agree with a lot of points in your second paragraph, but I'll just have to strongly disagree to agree with the moves that have been made and hope I'm wrong.

3)Agreed with Dillon being solid. Unfortunately since this pick was made, I'd much rather have us trade Jones for a 2nd-3rd round pick this year so we wouldn't just let Jones walk away with just an uncertain future comp pick in return. He's too good of a player to just have walk.

 

[rmontro]

Give me a big dollar RB that has panned out in the past decade and i'll give you 3 that haven't. No way I'd give a RB of slight build a 10+ million dollar deal.

Let's face it, the current situation in the NFL is you don't give big contracts to running backs. I'm hoping that they picked Dillon to replace Williams rather than Jones, but we'll see what happens.

 

[OldSchool101]

Let's face it, the current situation in the NFL is you don't give big contracts to running backs. I'm hoping that they picked Dillon to replace Williams rather than Jones, but we'll see what happens.

This was my initial thought. Maybe even using Jamaal as a trading chip to a team who needs a solid #2 RB to pair. Although it’s not a bad idea keeping Jamaal as the RB position sees its share of injuries and he’s a prototypical #2 guy.

 

[OldSchool101]

Something I didn’t realize about A.J. after watching his film. While he wasn’t utilized in the passing game much (due to BC system) he still does have decent hands. In his film several passes he caught were thrown behind him, very similar to where Aaron placed the ball a little behind last year. He snatched those tough throws and kept his concentration, secured it and moved upfield for big gains. He’s not a poor pass catcher, he just needs reps and extra work and he’ll be fine there.

His strong point is his downfield vision to make instantaneous decisions as he reads defenders and responds to his blocks really well. He can also stop and redirect with a pretty good 1st gear to 2nd gear range but seems to top out at his 4.53 long speed. Normally I’d be concerned because you want both speed and power, but after watching how D.Singleterry adapted with a much slower 40 time, I was reminded that instincts win over long speed at the NFL level for a RB. Had he run in the 4.4’s at his size? I’m confident he would’ve been gone before #62 overall. Very slight reach here, Objectively I’d put him in that #75 range in a draft do over, so while he’s not some great value selection nothing to be overly concerned with at our selection.

 

[Dantés]

So is Gute's new strategy is to Draft a RB every 3 years, so they can go off and potentially be HOFs somewhere else? At some point you gotta pay these guys something.

Can I ask-- who are the free agent RB's you see out there that are signing with second teams and becoming hall of famers?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Can I ask-- who are the free agent RB's you see out there that are signing with second teams and becoming hall of famers?

They don't exist. LeVeon Bell would be the only one close to such a title, but his pairing with the Jets might not be the best projection for his career.

But you didn't see the Cowboys letting Zeke hit the open market if that answers your question.

But as far as Jones goes, if he can stay healthy he could easily be the Packers all-time leading rusher. But if that's not good enough to pay him, then we'll just continue to cycle through guys until we find the next big thing.

 

[Dantés]

They don't exist. LeVeon Bell would be the only one close to such a title, but his pairing with the Jets might not be the best projection for his career.

But you didn't see the Cowboys letting Zeke hit the open market if that answers your question.

But as far as Jones goes, if he can stay healthy he could easily be the Packers all-time leading rusher. But if that's not good enough to pay him, then we'll just continue to cycle through guys until we find the next big thing.

I am open to paying Jones if he is willing to take a contract that prices in the risk that's inherent in running backs' second contracts. But if he wants to max out his earning potential, then it's probably wisest for the Packers to let him go.

Either way, if the Packers really want to emulate San Francisco, they need a lot more carries than what Jones can bring.

He had 236 carries last year, and that should really be his ceiling, given his frame and durability. 200 would be ideal. Last year, the Niners had 498 rushing attempts.

So whether they keep Jones, and he and Dillon are a tandem, or they let Jones go, and draft someone else to pair with Dillon, they needed a back. I figured it would be middle round-- they decided to go earlier.

 

[adambr2]

Can we please stop throwing words like "Derrick Henry" and "NFC Championship Game" around to justify a pick that we all would have thought was absurd 48 hours ago?

First of all, Dillon is not Henry. Let's be realistic. If being big and athletic guaranteed that, the league would be swarming with Derrick Henrys. The chances of him being the next Derrick Henry are much less than him being the next Alex Green. Gute is not the only GM in the NFL with a scouting team, and if any of the other scouts had an inkling they had the next Derrick Henry here, Dillon wouldn't have made it out of the top 10.

Secondly, let's stop kidding ourselves that we're following the blueprint of the 49ers here. The 49ers are insanely more athletic in the trenches on both sides of the line which is why they were able to use their running backs interchangeably to make us look silly. There's nothing special about Mostert and Coleman and they haven't been building around them. They've made numerous efforts to build around their passing game -- trading for Jimmy G, trading for Emmanuel Sanders, numerous high draft picks spent on receivers. They ran the ball down our throats because it played completely into our weakness, nothing more.

 

[Dantés]

Can we please stop throwing words like "Derrick Henry" and "NFC Championship Game" around to justify a pick that we all would have thought was absurd 48 hours ago?

First of all, Dillon is not Henry. Let's be realistic. If being big and athletic guaranteed that, the league would be swarming with Derrick Henrys. The chances of him being the next Derrick Henry are much less than him being the next Alex Green. Gute is not the only GM in the NFL with a scouting team, and if any of the other scouts had an inkling they had the next Derrick Henry here, Dillon wouldn't have made it out of the top 10.

Secondly, let's stop kidding ourselves that we're following the blueprint of the 49ers here. The 49ers are insanely more athletic in the trenches on both sides of the line which is why they were able to use their running backs interchangeably to make us look silly. There's nothing special about Mostert and Coleman and they haven't been building around them. They've made numerous efforts to build around their passing game -- trading for Jimmy G, trading for Emmanuel Sanders, numerous high draft picks spent on receivers. They ran the ball down our throats because it played completely into our weakness, nothing more.

It's not that he is Derrick Henry, it's that he's like Derrick Henry. He's not on that same level, I don't believe, but in terms of size, athleticism, and style, he's very similar.

No, it wouldn't. Backs with that combination of size and speed are rare. He would not have to become literal, 5.1 YPC, 16 TD Derrick Henry to be a very valuable piece of the offense. It's a comparison, not an equation.

I don't know where you get that-- the real Derrick Henry didn't go until pick #45.

We don't have to kid ourselves-- that's literally what we're doing. We hired a coach from the same tree with the same pedigree who runs the same offense. Why is this so hard for people to fathom?

We're talking about offense, not defense. The Packers starting OL is better than what the 49ers were working with most of the last season (their top 5 OL in snaps played were Tomlinson, Person, Richburg, McGlinchey, and Skule).

They ran the ball the second most in the entire league last year-- it was the foundation of their offense.

 

[adambr2]

It's not that he is Derrick Henry, it's that he's like Derrick Henry. He's not on that same level, I don't believe, but in terms of size, athleticism, and style, he's very similar.

No, it wouldn't. Backs with that combination of size and speed are rare. He would not have to become literal, 5.1 YPC, 16 TD Derrick Henry to be a very valuable piece of the offense. It's a comparison, not an equation.

I don't know where you get that-- the real Derrick Henry didn't go until pick #45.

We don't have to kid ourselves-- that's literally what we're doing. We hired a coach from the same tree with the same pedigree who runs the same offense. Why is this so hard for people to fathom?

We're talking about offense, not defense. The Packers starting OL is better than what the 49ers were working with most of the last season (their top 5 OL in snaps played were Tomlinson, Person, Richburg, McGlinchey, and Skule).

They ran the ball the second most in the entire league last year-- it was the foundation of their offense.

Well first, offense and defense are intertwined, they aren't purely independent elements -- you have to have a defense that can control a game enough to make a run first strategy work or your strategy falls apart the first time you get down 17-0.

I don't know why the spot Derrick Henry went originally has anything to do with anything -- obviously, he would go much higher in a redraft now, like Zeke, Gurley, McCaffrey and Fournette did.

I think the biggest point of the dislike of the Dillon pick is that he just doesn't add much in terms of overall net value right now -- it's not like we didn't already have a pretty good 1-2 punch. People seem to be forgetting about the very existence of Jamaal Williams. Probably the high end likelihood for Dillon in 2020 is that he replaces most of Williams' snaps at about the same level of production, and that just doesn't make us any better than what we already are.

 

[OldSchool101]

We now know that our FO never intended to go WR unless it fell in their lap. GB did lose Vitale and this absolutely is an upgrade more for him, but Dillon is more physical in short yardage and can develop into a #2 role as a workhorse. That takes abuse off of Aaron Jones immediately and allows for GB to use Aaron Jones more in the passing game.

Remember, the goal is to get your best talent on the field simultaneously. Both for Run support, as a lead blocker, pass blocking (which he’s been good at) and as a complimentary chess piece for down and distance scenarios.

Couple that with beefing up the TE room with a versatile chess piece in Josiah and adding Funchess in the off-season, getting EQ back healthy and signing Begelton to a futures contract and you’re beginning to bump elbows. If you sign anyone but a top 4-5 WR in round 1.. you’re overlapping. Which is ironically the same thing we’re all complaining about!

And all these tight quarters are if we don’t make another move, which we can’t say won’t happen yet and which Gute isn’t going to telegraph to appease us ignorant fans in the meantime. He holds his cards close as displayed in interviews and which I respect.

Initially I wanted to get that exciting player who could eventually take the top off a D. But I’m not sure that would’ve given us some massive NET result tomorrow either way. I don’t expect a Rookie past the top 3-4 Wideouts to have that type of impact that quickly. I understand wanting to be excited for our team, but let’s not pretend like we passed on Ceedee Lamb at #30 here. Let’s also not pretend that Gute is done improving this team, it’s an ongoing process it didn’t stop at 5pm Saturday

I’ll just say while we’re not flashy, we quietly have a diversified RB, TE, WR, OL and yes QB group that I’m more comfortable with than I was last January. These guys are young and each possess some nice upside. To BuggyBillys earlier sentiment.. just let the man do his thing, we hired him.. so give Gutey a little leash and confidence he’s got a plan. I’m not interested in CBS draft evaluation D- letter grade. Maybe Gods got an A+ plan for you. I’m interested in Winning that Lombardi.

 

[hasamikun]

It's not bold, it's suicidal.... considering the players in question. None are expected to be game changers.

A playoff team missing few pieces shouldn't be a candidate for rebuild from scratch.

The draft almost feels like a tank season coming on.

Like I wrote in my post, the Packers are betting on the draft picks from earliers drafts to ball out. These picks are all in the areas of need. It makes sense to bet on them uz most of them showed some good potential but just fell short due to injuries or inconsistency. The WR for example is already crowded with potential.

So is Gute's new strategy is to Draft a RB every 3 years, so they can go off and potentially be HOFs somewhere else? At some point you gotta pay these guys something.

I dont think that drafting Dillon means they will let Jones go or even makes it more likely. Dillon is a clear upgrade over both Williams' and I think that Jamaal will be the one who wont be back next season. Get Aaron Jones a 9M per year contract and it would be a good value and big money for Jones. maybe its just wishful thinking but 9M seems really fair for Jones.

1)I've never and won't insult directly the players that were picked. I will show frustration toward the GM if I think it's a bad move. I feel bad for Jordan Love getting put in this situation.

2)I agree with a lot of points in your second paragraph, but I'll just have to strongly disagree to agree with the moves that have been made and hope I'm wrong.

3)Agreed with Dillon being solid. Unfortunately since this pick was made, I'd much rather have us trade Jones for a 2nd-3rd round pick this year so we wouldn't just let Jones walk away with just an uncertain future comp pick in return. He's too good of a player to just have walk.

1/2) I didnt mean you with insulting etc. the Packers pundits get a lot of sh*t for not being as irrational as many fans are and that probably has them a little on edge, which i can fully understand. The sheer amount of insulting happening on social media is insane and no one deserves this.
I dont really agree with the picks either but I understand why they picked them and will be patient to see how it plays out.

3) Like I wrote before, Dillon in no way makes Jones resigning unlikely. LaFleur system requires multiple RBs and Jones/ Dillon are one hell of a combo. they will resign Jones if he doesnt demand too much money. 9M would be fair for everyone imho.

 

[Jerellh528]

But as far as Jones goes, if he can stay healthy he could easily be the Packers all-time leading rusher. But if that's not good enough to pay him, then we'll just continue to cycle through guys until we find the next big thing.

omg dude, Ahman Green was 5x the rb Jones is. No way.

Imo, Jones isn’t a feature back. He disappears way too often. He’s a perfect complimentary back, but he’s more of an explode one game then put up 30 yards rushing the next type than a workhorse. He’s not a better rb than Lacy even imo, nevermind the packers all time leading rusher

 

[RepStar15]

I am shocked that some folks on here are not PUMPED about this guy being on the roster. Maybe we have PTSD of Eddie Tacobell Lacey eating his way out of GB and breaking the hearts of #27 jersey owners everywhere.

Listen up friends. AJ Dillion is 6’0 and 247 pounds of solid muscle. The dude ran a 4.53 40, jumped a 41” vertical and benched 23 reps. Let that sink in for a minute...to put that into perspective Aaron Jones at 5’9 209 pounds ran a 4.56 40 and jumped a 37” vertical.

Derrick Henry is honestly a poor draft comparison when you actually watch the film. Although their size and combine results were similar (AJ Dillion beat out Henry in almost every combine drill). A better physical comparison is LeGarette Blount, but with zero off the field concerns and attitude issues. This kid is a student of the game and a freak athlete.

You have to remember when reading scouting descriptions that scouts are employed by a team. Teams that lack a true RB1 would not find value in a complimentary back like AJ Dillion. They are looking for the Aaron Jones of the world (DeAndre Swift type player). Or they work for a team that has an offense where RB by committee is not an option (because they are paying the Zeke Elliots of the world far too much money). All I am saying kids is please watch the tape. I got to see this kid play live in probably 5-6 games. He’s one of the most fun college players I have ever witnessed live. He’s an immediate upgrade to Jamal and complimentary back to Aaron Jones. Please watch or re-watch his tape with the idea in mind that he’s going to be the packers #2 back. Don’t listen to what the scouting reports you read said, make your own opinion now that you know he’s a Packer.

...And do not forget he worked behind an offensive line that only had one player drafted in his career. Jonathon Taylor (Wisconsin), DeAndre Swift (Georgia), JK Dobbins (Ohio), and CEH (LSU) worked behind some pretty elite offensive lines, no?

 

[Dantés]

Well first, offense and defense are intertwined, they aren't purely independent elements -- you have to have a defense that can control a game enough to make a run first strategy work or your strategy falls apart the first time you get down 17-0.

I don't know why the spot Derrick Henry went originally has anything to do with anything -- obviously, he would go much higher in a redraft now, like Zeke, Gurley, McCaffrey and Fournette did.

I think the biggest point of the dislike of the Dillon pick is that he just doesn't add much in terms of overall net value right now -- it's not like we didn't already have a pretty good 1-2 punch. People seem to be forgetting about the very existence of Jamaal Williams. Probably the high end likelihood for Dillon in 2020 is that he replaces most of Williams' snaps at about the same level of production, and that just doesn't make us any better than what we already are.

Sure, you can't be a sieve on defense and be near the top of the league in rushing. That's true. But that's an argument against whether or not the system will work in Green Bay, not against the reality that that's what they're installing. You said we're kidding ourselves if we think they're following that blueprint, but that's exactly what they're doing. Whether it will be work remains to be seen, but the intentions are obvious.

It's unlikely that they're going to run it as efficiently as the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is at the top of the pile when it comes to coaching that particular offense. But they could still become quite a bitter better in executing it that they were in 2019. I said all season, and all off-season, that the biggest problem on offense last year was not personnel, but execution of the offense. It was new, and some of the major pieces did not fit (e.g. Graham). And I would certainly not argue that they have all the pieces now. Collecting the personnel will continue to be a work in progress.

I think Dillon was picked for a few reasons. I think they want to increase the total rushing attempts on offense, and Jones isn't built to carry a huge load. I think that Williams is a fine depth piece, but not a very effective player overall. I think Dillon fits the offense about as well as you could ask for in such a big, powerful player. And I know that Jones and Williams are entering contract years.

If Dillon contributes significant rushing value in 2020, and increases his role in 2021-23, then he returned on investment at #62.

 

[GleefulGary]

I originally wasn't a huge fan of this, but Dillon is really good.

He'll produce, which is good, because Aaron Jones can't stay healthy and Williams is just a guy.

 

[GleefulGary]

So is Gute's new strategy is to Draft a RB every 3 years, so they can go off and potentially be HOFs somewhere else? At some point you gotta pay these guys something.

No, actually, you don't have to pay them something.

 

[Jerellh528]

I am shocked that some folks on here are not PUMPED about this guy being on the roster. Maybe we have PTSD of Eddie Tacobell Lacey eating his way out of GB and breaking the hearts of #27 jersey owners everywhere.

Listen up friends. AJ Dillion is 6’0 and 247 pounds of solid muscle. The dude ran a 4.53 40, jumped a 41” vertical and benched 23 reps. Let that sink in for a minute...to put that into perspective Aaron Jones at 5’9 209 pounds ran a 4.56 40 and jumped a 37” vertical.

Derrick Henry is honestly a poor draft comparison when you actually watch the film. Although their size and combine results were similar (AJ Dillion beat out Henry in almost every combine drill). A better physical comparison is LeGarette Blount, but with zero off the field concerns and attitude issues. This kid is a student of the game and a freak athlete.

You have to remember when reading scouting descriptions that scouts are employed by a team. Teams that lack a true RB1 would not find value in a complimentary back like AJ Dillion. They are looking for the Aaron Jones of the world (DeAndre Swift type player). Or they work for a team that has an offense where RB by committee is not an option (because they are paying the Zeke Elliots of the world far too much money). All I am saying kids is please watch the tape. I got to see this kid play live in probably 5-6 games. He’s one of the most fun college players I have ever witnessed live. He’s an immediate upgrade to Jamal and complimentary back to Aaron Jones. Please watch or re-watch his tape with the idea in mind that he’s going to be the packers #2 back. Don’t listen to what the scouting reports you read said, make your own opinion now that you know he’s a Packer.

...And do not forget he worked behind an offensive line that only had one player drafted in his career. Jonathon Taylor (Wisconsin), DeAndre Swift (Georgia), JK Dobbins (Ohio), and CEH (LSU) worked behind some pretty elite offensive lines, no?

honestly wouldn’t surprise me if Dillon got majority of the reps and Jones was used as the complimentary back, which I think suits him better anyway

 

[RepStar15]

If you are not sure about AJ Dillion, watch this tape. Keep in mind #10 on Louisville is Jaire Alexander

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