2020 Offseason

[Pokerbrat2000]

Additionally, we have no idea if Sternberger can actually play. Relying on him and Tonyan as the main guys doesn't seem much different from relying on the in-house wide receivers.

This can't be stressed enough. We saw what happened way back before Cook, when TT and MM were content on just having unproven or not that great of TE's on the field. Then we saw the Packers treat the WR position much the same last season, with only Adams being your sure thing.

Obviously, it would be nice to address both positions (WR and TE) but the Packers are faced with the similar problem on the other side of the ball with the DL and at ILB. So not enough cash resources or top picks to double up on all 4 of those positions, but something is going to be put towards all 4 I think. Will be interesting to see what Gute and the Packers do.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Ahhh, remembering the days when we had not only one good TE, we had TWO at the same time. Those were the days. . .

Been a long time.....1996 (Chmura and Jackson)

 

[Do7]

This can't be stressed enough. We saw what happened way back before Cook, when TT and MM were content on just having unproven or not that great of TE's on the field. Then we saw the Packers treat the WR position much the same last season, with only Adams being your sure thing.

Obviously, it would be nice to address both positions (WR and TE) but the Packers are faced with the similar problem on the other side of the ball with the DL and at ILB. So not enough cash resources or top picks to double up on all 4 of those positions, but something is going to be put towards all 4 I think. Will be interesting to see what Gute and the Packers do.

In hindsight do you think we should've signed Cook for a long deal?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In hindsight do you think we should've signed Cook for a long deal?

Hindsight.....absolutely. However, at the time, I remember thinking that Cook wanted too much, he really didn't Jell with Rodgers until the last half of the season and maybe he wasn't worth what he wanted.

I will also admit to thinking Marty B. was a better TE and was excited when they signed both him and Kendricks. That turned into almost as big of a mistake as signing Jimmy G. Actually, I think it was bigger when you look at what a POS Marty B ended up being, but less costly and for a shorter time period.

Goes to show you what hindsight can do. Not much, except to think "what could have been" and I guess we learn from it, but still does us no good to dwell on it.

 

[PackAttack12]

I was out of my mind thinking they weren't going to bring Cook back. I talked myself into being okay about Bennett only because I was somewhat surprised to see Thompson actually replace him. Always thought Cook was going to be the better fit, though.

Rodgers made it clear that Cook should have been near the top of the priority list for 2017. Almost like Thompson said okay watch this...and it bit the Packers in the rear.

And Cook signed for like 2 yrs/12 million. We signed Bennett for 3/21 if I remember correctly. Can't recall the signing bonuses, dead cap, etc., but it wasn't a big enough difference in my opinion to justify choosing Bennett over Cook. Perhaps Cook was demanding more than that from the Packers, who knows.

All I know is that since 2017, the Packers have absolutely struck out on finding a suitable tight end. That includes both Thompson and Gutekunst. Hopefully we solidify that this offseason.

 

[Do7]

I was out of my mind thinking they weren't going to bring Cook back. I talked myself into being okay about Bennett only because I was somewhat surprised to see Thompson actually replace him. Always thought Cook was going to be the better fit, though.

Rodgers made it clear that Cook should have been near the top of the priority list for 2017. Almost like Thompson said okay watch this...and it bit the Packers in the rear.

And Cook signed for like 2 yrs/12 million. We signed Bennett for 3/21 if I remember correctly. Can't recall the signing bonuses, dead cap, etc., but it wasn't a big enough difference in my opinion to justify choosing Bennett over Cook. Perhaps Cook was demanding more than that from the Packers, who knows.

All I know is that since 2017, the Packers have absolutely struck out on finding a suitable tight end. That includes both Thompson and Gutekunst. Hopefully we solidify that this offseason.

What's better for our offense, a great TE or another bonafide WR?

 

[Dantés]

What's better for our offense, a great TE or another bonafide WR?

A great tight end.

The main, oversimplified goal of Petals' offense is to use packages and plays that appear to be exactly the same but have different results. So he needs players in the passing game who can block in the running game and players who are legitimate blockers who can make plays in the passing game.

A dual threat tight end is the most obvious and critical piece in that style of offense. In 2019, they had Graham who can sort of still be a threat as a receiver but can't block and Lewis who can block but isn't a threat as a receiver. Henry is one of the guys who can do both.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What's better for our offense, a great TE or another bonafide WR?

Both

 

[GleefulGary]

A great tight end.

The main, oversimplified goal of Petals' offense is to use packages and plays that appear to be exactly the same but have different results. So he needs players in the passing game who can block in the running game and players who are legitimate blockers who can make plays in the passing game.

A dual threat tight end is the most obvious and critical piece in that style of offense. In 2019, they had Graham who can sort of still be a threat as a receiver but can't block and Lewis who can block but isn't a threat as a receiver. Henry is one of the guys who can do both.

Prime example is Kittles with Shanahan.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

What's better for our offense, a great TE or another bonafide WR?

Either one really. It really just comes down to having the best available player at a position. I'd prefer a combo of Adams and Henry at TE over Adams and say, Sanders or Anderson, but if he's healthy I think Adams and AJ Green would be better than having Henry. Note, I'm not advocating for breaking the salary cap for Green, just pointing out that player skill matters more than position between WR and TE.

 

[tynimiller]

All that said, I have to disagree with anyone who thinks the Packers WR position is going to improve a ton in 2020, which I feels it needs to, by the signing of a CFL player and a draft pick. ESB's injury was much like Sternberger's, we still don't know what we have in him. GMO won't be back, unless its a low guaranteed, near Vet min contract. MVS, has a lot to prove still. Lazard, I like him, but still think he isn't a #2 or even a #3 quality guy just yet.

That is where your issue vs. my thoughts aren't lining up. I never stated to what degree it would be better, shoot...you could sign two high flying FA's and both bust and the position is worse, there is no guarantee.

However, I'm not buying that given the scenario you described in your response: Signed Begelton, bring in a draft pick (let's assume 3rd round or better), Lazard/Kumerow/ESB/MVS another year AND also Adams. How does that not mean improved?

Begelton alone has proved arguably more than anyone in that room at the professional level than Adams and some could argue Lazard (his tiny sample size is at least against NFL).

EQ, showed the same promise Lazard started to the end of his rookie campaign crawling from the bowels of the depth chart to truly being a target by Rodgers...the question is does he continue to progress or regress like GMo or MVS?

Speaking of MVS...letting him sit at the #4 or so spot on the chart removes that pressure of being asked to be the #2 and do we see him progress finally? I'm also of the mindset coming from the small conference he did...being a one trick pony like he was...and a brand new offensive system...was he overwhelmed even before the Packers basically said be our #2?

Then you got Lazard...I like this kid and truly think he can be a solid #3 and push a team's #2...but he is NOT what I want our #2 to be.

It all comes back to how do you define or what measuring stick are we weighing our thoughts towards...you declaring if it is a "ton" of improvement if that all played out vs saying it is an improved WR corps are entirely different to some and identically the same to others. Is that scenario ideal....not in my opinion. I'd LOVE to see us dabble in WR free agency AND get a WR with one of our first two picks, between a FA veteran and a higher profile draft pick our #2 I think is solved for 2020...and I feel the fall out of this is better growth out of guys like Lazard and MVS and Begelton and EQ as they don't feel the weight of the franchise looming on them opposite of Adams.

 

[tynimiller]

I'll add one quick additional thought. I'm of the camp Gute and Co. cannot walk away from FA's/Draft/Offseason without doing one of these things IMO (receiving discussion only....not inclusive of other positions and such):

Scenario #1
Sign Mercedes
Sign an experienced #2 WR
Draft a WR with one of our first three picks
(Cut Graham)

Scenario #2
Sign Mercedes
Sign a top flight TE
Sign a FA WR
Draft a WR with one of our first three picks
(Cut Graham)

Scenario #3
Sign Mercedes
Sign a FA WR
Draft a WR with one of our first three picks
(Cut Graham)


Now you could argue Begelton is a low/mid tier signing already so that portion could be added to Scenario #1 or could be part of Scenario #2 or #3 already done. I tend to lean towards getting a better WR than TE like Pokerbrat2000 stated as well....so I'm a fan of Scenario #1 (plus a second lower tier signing aka Begelton).

 

[Do7]

I'll add one quick additional thought. I'm of the camp Gute and Co. cannot walk away from FA's/Draft/Offseason without doing one of these things IMO:

Scenario #1
Sign Mercedes
Sign an experienced #2 WR
Draft a WR with one of our first three picks
(Cut Graham)

Scenario #2
Sign Mercedes
Sign a top flight TE
Sign a FA WR
Draft a WR with one of our first three picks
(Cut Graham)

Scenario #3
Sign Mercedes
Sign a FA WR
Draft a WR with one of our first three picks
(Cut Graham)


Now you could argue Begelton is a low/mid tier signing already so that portion could be added to Scenario #1 or could be part of Scenario #2 or #3 already done. I tend to lean towards getting a better WR than TE like Pokerbrat2000 stated as well....so I'm a fan of Scenario #1 (plus a second lower tier signing aka Begelton).

I was going to ask what's the difference between Scenarios 1 and 3?

 

[tynimiller]

I was going to ask what's the difference between Scenarios 1 and 3?

Scenario #3 doesn't emphasize that FA WR is a starter. Scenario #1 you are signing the guy you expect to provide that #2 role until future comes or any other WR overtakes them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That is where your issue vs. my thoughts aren't lining up. I never stated to what degree it would be better, shoot...you could sign two high flying FA's and both bust and the position is worse, there is no guarantee.

However, I'm not buying that given the scenario you described in your response: Signed Begelton, bring in a draft pick (let's assume 3rd round or better), Lazard/Kumerow/ESB/MVS another year AND also Adams. How does that not mean improved?

Begelton alone has proved arguably more than anyone in that room at the professional level than Adams and some could argue Lazard (his tiny sample size is at least against NFL).

EQ, showed the same promise Lazard started to the end of his rookie campaign crawling from the bowels of the depth chart to truly being a target by Rodgers...the question is does he continue to progress or regress like GMo or MVS?

Speaking of MVS...letting him sit at the #4 or so spot on the chart removes that pressure of being asked to be the #2 and do we see him progress finally? I'm also of the mindset coming from the small conference he did...being a one trick pony like he was...and a brand new offensive system...was he overwhelmed even before the Packers basically said be our #2?

Then you got Lazard...I like this kid and truly think he can be a solid #3 and push a team's #2...but he is NOT what I want our #2 to be.

It all comes back to how do you define or what measuring stick are we weighing our thoughts towards...you declaring if it is a "ton" of improvement if that all played out vs saying it is an improved WR corps are entirely different to some and identically the same to others. Is that scenario ideal....not in my opinion. I'd LOVE to see us dabble in WR free agency AND get a WR with one of our first two picks, between a FA veteran and a higher profile draft pick our #2 I think is solved for 2020...and I feel the fall out of this is better growth out of guys like Lazard and MVS and Begelton and EQ as they don't feel the weight of the franchise looming on them opposite of Adams.

I'm not saying that the Packers WR group couldn't be better if all they do is sit pat after signing a CFL WR and using a top 3 round pick on a rookie. What I did say is that I wouldn't bank on it actually improving that much and that is a group that needs to improve a lot for the offense to be better. We already went one season banking on the idea that MVS, Allison, Shepherd, Davis and Kumerow (WR's opening day behind Adams) would be good enough. How did that work out? Davis and Shepherd didn't even finish the year on the team and our 2nd best WR was a guy that started the season being cut and then signed to the PS (Lizard).

So sure, the Packers can hope and pray that Begelton, EQ and a Rookie will improve us, which won't be that hard to do, but I wouldn't expect it to be a big enough difference.

The one variable and caveat is what they do at TE. Sign a top FA TE and that helps improve the WR group.

Also the notion that FA can bust and not contribute is valid, but I think you have to just look at the history of how a vet performs over a rookie and the fact that you just can't try to fill all of your needs with drafted rookies.

Final note. I watched film on Begelton and he looks like a decent CFL player, but how often does a CFL WR make an impact in the NFL? I don't know the answer to this, but I can't believe that it is that often.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Scenario #2
Sign Mercedes
Sign a top flight TE
Sign a FA WR
Draft a WR with one of our first three picks
(Cut Graham)

Yes please. If the money is available and I think it can be made available, signing a top FA TE and a mid range FA WR is my preference heading into the draft and then you just see what falls to you. No pressure to hit a home run on either position in the draft and in drafted players rookie years.

 

[Do7]

Yes please. If the money is available and I think it can be made available, signing a top FA TE and a mid range FA WR is my preference heading into the draft and then you just see what falls to you. No pressure to hit a home run on either position in the draft and in drafted players rookie years.

I'd rather we spend the money on just one particular piece, be it WR or TE, and continue spending money buffering the defense. I do agree our offense needs to be more consistent, and I do think adding a solid number 2 will fix most of that, (barring no injuries) the rest will be on Rodgers and the receivers. I think our best chance is to continue buffering the defense that way it's much easier for Rodgers. Typically what happens is that everytime we buffer the offensive side, our defense ends up going down. At this point I'd rather we have an even more dominant defense if possible.

Don't get me wrong I do think we need to get a solid piece and by solid I mean like a B to B+ player, and then we can draft a WR or TE in the second round. From there we continuing buffering the defense with maybe another Olineman.

 

[GleefulGary]

I wouldn't expect anything out of a CFL WR. At most, minimal production. Nothing that makes a significant difference.

You can't miss out on other players bc of a guy on your futures roster.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don’t like any scenario that brings Martinez back. He can probably get $13 to $26 mil in FA. Let him be someone else’s expensive, average ILB.

 

[Dantés]

Yes please. If the money is available and I think it can be made available, signing a top FA TE and a mid range FA WR is my preference heading into the draft and then you just see what falls to you. No pressure to hit a home run on either position in the draft and in drafted players rookie years.

Of course, if that's the way you spend your space and you let Martinez walk, then you haven't avoided the pressure to find instant help, you've just reallocated that pressure to the linebacker position.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'd rather we spend the money on just one particular piece, be it WR or TE

Well, if its going to be only on one piece, it might be TE. Since I think its a foregone conclusion that Jimmy G is gone, unless he takes a drastic pay cut. So that leaves the TE cupboard even barer and IMO, puts that need out ahead of the WR need. We all want the young guys; Sternberger, Tonyan, MVS, EQB and Lizard to make the jump in 2020, but I just think it would be foolish to fully rely on it.

If the Packers really think Sternberger is the TE of the future and they can somehow get Jimmy G to take a big pay cut, I wouldn't mind doing that, resigning Mercedes and using more money on a FA WR. Then you look for another TE mid rounds.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Of course, if that's the way you spend your space and you let Martinez walk, then you haven't avoided the pressure to find instant help, you've just reallocated that pressure to the linebacker position.

No doubt the Packers have some starting spots to fill (TE, WR, ILB (s)) Not enough cap space to put 4 or even 3 premier players into each of those positions. So they might end up going middle of the road on all 3 or 4 and hope the draft covers the rest.

I haven't read or heard anything as far as how happy the coaches are with Sternberger. I think we will find out how confident they are in him when Free Agency hits.

 

[Dantés]

No doubt the Packers have some starting spots to fill (TE, WR, ILB (s)) Not enough cap space to put 4 or even 3 premier players into each of those positions. So they might end up going middle of the road on all 3 or 4 and hope the draft covers the rest.

I haven't read or heard anything as far as how happy the coaches are with Sternberger. I think we will find out how confident they are in him when Free Agency hits.

If Martinez walks, I think they basically have to go get a linebacker. I don't see how they don't sign someone. I think what makes the most sense is to make two significant investments-- one at linebacker and one at pass catcher.

If a guy like Henry actually gets to free agency, and he's the only FA addition in the passing game, I'd be ok with that. If there are no good TE options out there, I'd be OK with bringing back Lewis and signing a veteran receiver.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Martinez walks, I think they basically have to go get a linebacker. I don't see how they don't sign someone. I think what makes the most sense is to make two significant investments-- one at linebacker and one at pass catcher.

If a guy like Henry actually gets to free agency, and he's the only FA addition in the passing game, I'd be ok with that. If there are no good TE options out there, I'd be OK with bringing back Lewis and signing a veteran receiver.

If Henry or even Hooper make it Free Agency, they are going to be pretty pricey, but possibly worth it. Any decent ILB is going to be very pricey as well. But yes, one of each might blow the *** of Free Agent spending.

Then you got your DL. The good news with the DL, its not in as dire need as ILB, but definitely would improve the defense with one good additional player. You might be able to find a cheaper vet with some tread on his tires or get lucky and find one in the draft.

 

[Dantés]

If Henry or even Hooper make it Free Agency, they are going to be pretty pricey, but possibly worth it. Any decent ILB is going to be very pricey as well. But yes, one of each might blow the *** of Free Agent spending.

Then you got your DL. The good news with the DL, its not in as dire need as ILB, but definitely would improve the defense with one good additional player. You might be able to find a cheaper vet with some tread on his tires or get lucky and find one in the draft.

The tight ends would be pricey relative to their positions, but not relative to the pass catcher market, generally.

The top avg. salary for a TE right now is 10M (our very own Jimmy Graham). Top wide receivers are making more than double that. Even if we gave Hunter Henry a deal that reset the TE market, we're talking about 11-12M. I could envision Emmanuel Sanders getting about the same on a 1-2 year deal.

To your point about a cheaper vet on the DL, Tyeler Davison has been a pretty good run defender for a couple years now (with the Saints and then the Falcons). Coming off a good year last offseason, he only got 1 yr, 900K. He's a guy I would look into.