Time to make the donuts again.
We have now a stable picture with more clarity and a better understanding of the details.
2018 BIG PICTURE
Current 2018 cap space for the top 51 according to the NFLPA is approximatedly $10.8 mil ("Cap Room") compared to approximately $10.9 mil about a week ago. This suggests Joey Mbu is included in the top 51, bumping off another player out of the 51 who had a cap number about $100,000 less than his.
https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report
From recent analysis, I've concluded that spotrac.com and overthecap.com should not be referenced for this number or other aggregate numbers.
Using the NLFP data and this source
https://www.packersnews.com/story/s...ary-cap-space-entering-free-agency/410810002/ here's the aggregate basic math:
(1) NFLPA 2018 total available cap from the above link = $177.2 mil NFL cap + $3.9 mil carryover + $4.0 mil in unidentified credits and adjustments =
$185.2 mil
[While we do not know precisely the nature of the credits and adjustments, one component appears to be "likely to be earned" 2017 incentives that were not earned that are "rebated" prior to the start of the 2018 league year. An example would be per game bonues not earned.]
(2) NFLPA "Prior Year Carryover" = $3.9 mil
(3) NFLPA "Team Cap" = $173.7 mil
(4) Dead Cap + any late adjustments (see Goodson in the above link as a possible example) = $7.6 mil (derived)
(1) = (2) + (3) +(4)
We can also derive the current top 51 cap committments without referring to spotrac or overthecap:
$185.2 total available cap - $10.8 mil remaining cap space - $7.6 mil dead cap + any late adjustments =
$166.8 mil top 51 cap commitments
For what it's worth, this top 51 cap commitment number syncs fairly closely to overthecap ($165.5 mil) and spotrac ($165.8 mil), but the $166.8 mil should be deemed more accurate. We'll come back to this cap commitment later.
2018 REMAINING CAP FLEXIBILITY
Players 52 and 53 must be subtracted from cap space: $1.2 mil
The practice squad subtraction is at a minimum 10 players x 17 weeks x $7,600= $1.3 mil + $76,000 per playoff week. I'll us $1.5 mil for this number.
PUP and IR players count against the cap as well as their replacements on the 53 man roster, so some cap can be expected to be held in reserve for these eventualities. If the replacements are minimum salary rookies, the cap cost is about $500,000 per full season equivalent. I'll use $3 million as the reserve. 6 full season rookie equivalents is a healthy number, however you don't know if going to the street for a Howard Green might be called for. Unused reserve carries over to 2019.
Releasing certain players would generate cap savings, Bulaga being the most significant possible example, though that outcome is unknown and clearly dependent on his ability to play. Conversely, releasing a player whose dead cap exceeds his cap savings would bite into the cap, though I do not see any likely candidates in this category. I'll treat these as net zero considerations until events dictate otherwise.
These practical considerations reduces the NFLPA $10.8 cap room cited above to $5.1 usable for additional signings. It's still possible an Ahmad Brooks or Jahri Evans type signing is possible if injury or unsatisfactory performance requires shoring up a position or two.
Anything used now is that much less that cannot be carried over.
2019 OUTLOOK
If your expectation is, "make the playoffs and see what happens", then you can stop here.
My personal view is if the Packers win the Superbowl this season, then I can tolerate some roster rebuilding and year or two of retrenching if that's what's required. If they do not win, then that ultimate goal carries over to 2019 and we return to the annual FA and draft gnashing of teeth in fixing what went wrong. I certainly hope to be wrong, but I do not think this roster is championship caliber. Too much hangs on too many vets returning to former glories, or close to it, while too many first contract players must elevate. It could all come together at the end, but I don't expect it.
Though the NFLPA does supply existing 2019 contractual cap commitments, spotrac shows $152.3 mil for 52 players, or for 2018 apples to 2019 oranges, $151.7 mil in current 2019 top 51 cap commitments. This agrees closely with overthecap's $151.9 mil. Split the difference at $151.8 mil.
Note that the 2019 top 51 committments are only $15 mil less than the current ones, while the 2019 numbers do not include the following free agents:
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/green-bay-packers/available/
I find this inauspicious. One can argue the cap will go up $10 mil or so, increasing the cost differential between the two rosters to $25 mil. However, the cost of valued free agents keeps going up at what seems to be a higher percentage rate than the salary cap increase percentage. The rich get richer, etc. etc. And if you do not win in 2018, the FA replacements need to be better than the guys replaced. Re-signing some of them to lesser amounts than currently does not improve the overall talent level. And the $25 mil could be a much lesser amount if Rodgers is renegotiated. The other possibility is that a sufficient number of first contract players ascend to a level of play sufficiently above their pay to compensate for losses. That's a highly optimistic view.
RODGERS CONTRACT WILDCARD
The 2019 numbers assume Rodgers plays under his current contract for 2019 with a cap number of $21.1 mil.
As noted previously, a scenario where, for example 5 years are added to the existing contract with a $100 mil signing bonus is untenable. This was the form of his last extension with smaller numbers. The signing bonus cap hit would be allocated over 2018 - 2022 at $20 mil per year. Not only would that put the Packers $9 mil over the cap right now before further necessary subtractions requiring some significant cuts to clear cap, it adds another $20 mil to the 2019 commitments.
What about just guaranteeing 2018 and 2019, no signing bonus, with the payoff coming is large, guaranteed amounts over the first few of the additional 5 years. For the total 7 years to average $35 mil, those back 5 years would need to average about $41 mil per year. To get to $35 mil per year over 3 years to stay at or near the top of the heap over that period, 2020 baloons to $63 mil. While this might seem palatable in the "2020 is too far out to consider" viewpoint, which I mostly share, that's a prohibitive baloon number while Rodgers might not be to keen on having to wait 2 years to see any of the raise in his pocket. Even still, $35 mil per is too low if keeping up with top earners as he goes along is in fact a negotiatiating point.
Rewriting the last two years of the current deal into a 7 new year deal could create a "cap friendly" structure with that $100 mil signing bonus and $1 mil in salary the first two years. That's break even cap-wise in 2018 and 2019, But the balooning of cap obligations starts in 2020 with very, very large amounts, something the Packers may not wish to look forward too.
Anything that involves something on the order of a $100 million signing bonus to defer as much cap hit as possible raises the question as to whether the Green Bay Packers, Inc. have that cash sum available not already committed to projected needs and reserve.
The overall picture improves if Rodgers is made to finish out the contract and then use the franchise tag in 2020 if performance warrants. I would not be averse to adding a very large "unlikely to be earned" incentive tied to winning the Superbowl to the existing contract for years 2018 and 2019. That probably wouldn't be all that appealing to any player given that outcome is largely out of his control. But it would be better than nothing, and something I believe most would be happy to pay if earned.
