2018 Salary Cap Analysis

OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
While you bring up some valid points I don't believe the number is as high as you expect it to be.

There's another thing to consider in that a lot of high priced players on the roster have per-game active bonuses included in their contracts which they don't earn once being placed on injured reserve. Therefore the cost for a replacement is offset by not having to pay those bonuses.
It's too early to tell if my $4 million reserve is low or high. Sh*t can happen over the course of 6 months of OTAs, camp and preseason, or just blowing a bicep tomorrow lifting weights as I seem to recall happened to Raji two weeks before the season started. It's a middle of the road number at this juncture.

We're getting a little deep in the weeds now with those per game roster bonus recaptures. I like it! You can correct me if you can find a source, but I believe all per game roster bonuses count against the cap during the season even if the guy misses games. I believe the re-capture of that cap happens after the season. I've never seen an injured player's cap number reduced at the usual cites as he misses games in season.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,533
Reaction score
8,137
Location
Madison, WI
It's too early to tell if my $4 million reserve is low or high. Sh*t can happen over the course of 6 months of OTAs, camp and preseason, or just blowing a bicep tomorrow lifting weights as I seem to recall happened to Raji two weeks before the season started. It's a middle of the road number at this juncture.

We're getting a little deep in the weeds now with those per game roster bonu recaptures. I likek it! You can correct me if you can find a source, but I believe all per game roster bonuses count against the cap during the season even if the guy misses games. I believe the re-capture of that cap happens after the season. I've never seen an injured player's cap number reduced at the usual cites as he misses games in season.

I think you are right on game bonuses initially counting against the cap, since they are considered "expected" to earn bonuses.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
14,401
Reaction score
5,770
It's too early to tell if my $4 million reserve is low or high. Sh*t can happen over the course of 6 months of OTAs, camp and preseason, or just blowing a bicep tomorrow lifting weights as I seem to recall happened to Raji two weeks before the season started. It's a middle of the road number at this juncture.

We're getting a little deep in the weeds now with those per game roster bonu recaptures. I likek it! You can correct me if you can find a source, but I believe all per game roster bonuses count against the cap during the season even if the guy misses games. I believe the re-capture of that cap happens after the season. I've never seen an injured player's cap number reduced at the usual cites as he misses games in season.
So the bonus’ are basically like a tax exemption. They become realized when filing for a return. Interesting stuff.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
We're getting a little deep in the weeds now with those per game roster bonu recaptures. I likek it! You can correct me if you can find a source, but I believe all per game roster bonuses count against the cap during the season even if the guy misses games. I believe the re-capture of that cap happens after the season. I've never seen an injured player's cap number reduced at the usual cites as he misses games in season.

I guess you're correct that likely to be earned per-game active roster bonuses count against the cap during the season but the team recaptures the ones not having been paid after the season.

While that's not important for the current discussion the per-game active bonus for players being placed on injured reserve would be deemed as unlikely to be earned in the subsequent season and therefore wouldn't initially count against a team's cap.
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
I think you are right on game bonuses initially counting against the cap, since they are considered "expected" to earn bonuses.
Now we're getting even deeper in the weeds!

As the Captain rightly pointed out in another thread, the game day bonues are "unlikely to be earned" if the player missed games in the prior season. If, for example, Rodgers' contract was rewritten with game day bonuses for 2018, only 7 of the 16 would be "likely to be earned" since he missed 9 games last season. Those nine games worth of bonuses would not count against the 2018 cap, but if he did play all 16 games in 2018 they convert to "earned" at the end of the season and come off the cap for 2019.

However, in that example, if Rodgers blew his knee before the season started and spent the entire year on IR, those 7 "likely to be earned" game day bonuses would count against the cap until the end of the season.

So, I could have gotten more granular than in the above post. I perhaps should have said I don't believe "likely to be earned" game day bonuses come off the cap immediately but rather at the end of the season if the guy misses games. I await correction on that point if my observation is wrong. I base that observation on not having noticed it ever happening otherwise.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,533
Reaction score
8,137
Location
Madison, WI
Considering that I haven't seen many teams getting themselves into too much trouble with the league (Dallas and Washington in 2012?) in regards to the cap, as well as Ball historically doing a great job with the cap, I'm not going to lose much sleep over it. Fun conversation, but it reminds me of trying to figure out what compensatory picks we will or won't get.....sometimes very fuzzy math.
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
I guess you're correct that likely to be earned per-game active roster bonuses count against the cap during the season but the team recaptures the ones not having been paid after the season.
OK, then. The $4 million PUP/IR reserve in my analysis is, I think, a reasonable placeholder for now. The actual need could go up or down as we move along toward opening day.

One way that placeholder can be reduced is targeting a vet on the roster as expendable if required. I'll just pick a name: Jake Ryan.

Much to my disappointment, he never developed into a 3-down player. I thought he had that potential when drafted. Base defense? Sure. 2-down player under certain matchups? OK. 48% defensive snap count last season in 15 games? Sounds about right, give or take, given the "who else ya got?" part of the equation.

There's $1.9 mil in cap savings with his release before the season starts. Is he worth that cap? I'd say sure, while chipping in on special teams. But he's in his contract year. He's not a core player. Will the Packers draft an ILB somewhere in the top half of those 12 picks? Or move Gilbert or Biegel to the middle? Lots of possibilities. There's not much depth at the position even with Ryan which is the best argument to keep him.

So you could identify him as a possible cap recapture if needed before the season starts.

We could go through the same exercise with Kendricks, perhaps a more likely candidate if necessary. $1.7 mil in cap savings if cut. Good athlete, not a good route runner.
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
Considering that I haven't seen many teams getting themselves into too much trouble with the league (Dallas and Washington in 2012?) in regards to the cap, as well as Ball historically doing a great job with the cap, I'm not going to lose much sleep over it. Fun conversation, but it reminds me of trying to figure out what compensatory picks we will or won't get.....sometimes very fuzzy math.
The math ain't that fuzzy. What is fuzzy is whether you can get enough players who can actually play now out of the draft and how healthy the team will be.

You may not be aware, but the reason teams don't go over the cap once the 53 man roster is set, yada, yada at final cut downs is because they CAN'T.

The NFL cap is the hardest of hard caps. The league approves all contracts. They will not approve a contract that takes a team over the cap once the season starts. If you have zero cap at that juncture, a player goes to IR, and you have no cap to replace that player, tough luck buddy.

You then have two choices: play with 52 or cut somebody that clears enough cap for the IR replacement plus the replacement for the guy you cut if you want to get back to 53. And the guy you cut will need to have insufficient vesting such that his salary was not guaranteed for the year at week one.

Dallas and Washington was an entirely different situation. 2010 was an uncapped year under the terms of the final year of the prior CBA. The league had some kind of internal guidelines limiting teams from going hog wild in a "win now" spending spree. Washington and Dallas were deemed to have overstepped those limitations.

This is not that. The cap is hard and unbreachable once the season starts.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
It's donut making time again with overthecap.com having posted T. Williams contract. Some refinements and additional color have been added.

2018

overthecap.com shows $16 mil in cap space for the top 51. spotrac.com shows $14 mil for the top 51. These figures are before the following subtractions:


- draft class: $3 mil assuming the top 4 picks replace minimum minimum salary players
- players 52 and 53: $1 mil at the rookie minimum
- practice squad: $1 mil
- PUP/IR replacements, injury settlements and replacements of released players with dead cap from now to the end of the season: $4 mil reserve

This leaves effective remaining cap at $5 - $7 mil

There is not sufficient cap for any major FA addition without cutting somebody.

2019

overthecap.com shows $54 mil in cap space including rollover of the $16 mil noted above assuming a flat cap at $177.2 mil. spotrac.com shows $41 mil in cap space but evidently does not assume any rollover of the $14 mil 2018 cap space. Adding that in brings spotrac to $55 mil including rollover.

Let's assume a $10 mil bump in the cap for 2019 which brings available 2019 cap space to $64 - $65 mil

Current cap spending for 2019 in either case is for the following 30 players:

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

Here are subtractions from that $64 - $65 mil:

- The $9.5 mil in subtractions for 2018 noted above
- The same $9.5 mil in subtractions for 2019 (higher or lower depending on draft position and cap/salary schedule increases)
- Assuming the top four 2018 picks are still on the roster for 2019, subtract those players cap hits. Those players rookie cap hits will be $5 mil in 2018 per the scale. Second year cap hits are typically 25% above the rookie cap hit. Let's subtract $6.5 mil.
- I've included nothing for unlikely to be earned bonuses that are in fact earned
- I've included no adjustment for a Rodgers cap hit less than or more than the $21.1 mil he currently counts against 2019. If a deal gets done, I would think by the second year of a 5 year deal the number would be higher.

That brings the available cap to $38.5 - $39.5 mil with 40 players (including the top 4 picks in the 2018 and 2019 drafts and players 52 and 53 under contract), the PS and the reserve.

What needs to be accomplished with that $38.5 - $39.5 mil?

13 more players need to be added to the active roster. They could be cheap rookies or cheap second year players other than the top 4 picks in each of the two previous drafts that are already accounted for. That would bring the number of first and second year players to 21 with a bunch of cap rolled over. I find this implausibe except in a rebuilding program. Or it could be 18 first and second year players and 3 additional significant FA signings sucking up the cap?

Bottom line: The following players in the "win now" 2018 scenario will need to be replaced or re-signed through the next two drafts and with the $38.5 - $39.5 mil in free cap. If "win now" doesn't work then upgrades, not in-kind replacements, will be necessary:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/green-bay-packers/

The key to winning is not free agency where if you're lucky you get performance up to cap cost. The key to winning is getting a sufficient number of core and impact players out of the previous 4 drafts where those players are perfoming above cap cost. Thompson's mediocre-to-poor drafts have been an anchor and continue to be so. And if you're going to go into free agency to fill a couple of key spots, better to sign one or two second contract guys who's value is more likely to persist beyond the immediate needs of the current year.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

hallzi43

Cheesehead
Joined
Mar 5, 2018
Messages
435
Reaction score
18
wake up. this is a new nfl and the salary cap is for the most part lulz if you are a contender.
 

PackerDNA

Cheesehead
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
6,450
Reaction score
1,507
My question is do you have to be under the cap every second, or could you make a move that puts you over pending another move and have, say, 24 hours to be in compliance?
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
wake up. this is a new nfl and the salary cap is for the most part lulz if you are a contender.
Well, if you already have a championship caliber roster and are under the cap, then it doesn't matter so much. This is not that.
 

hallzi43

Cheesehead
Joined
Mar 5, 2018
Messages
435
Reaction score
18
Well, if you already have a championship caliber roster and are under the cap, then it doesn't matter so much. This is not that.

We have 60-80M in cap space looking at us in 2019. Nobody is worried about our cap going forward except you.
 

hallzi43

Cheesehead
Joined
Mar 5, 2018
Messages
435
Reaction score
18
You evidently didn't follow the math presented.

Oh i have. They can add another 20+M by opting out of Graham and Williams contracts and releasing Crosby and Bulaga. Good GM's have solve these things very easily and as long as you are building around #12 there shouldnt be much worry about our cap situation. If he is healthy, we are a playoff team.
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
My question is do you have to be under the cap every second, or could you make a move that puts you over pending another move and have, say, 24 hours to be in compliance?
Contracts are submitted to the league for approval. The league won't approve a contract if it puts a team over the cap. I imagine if somebody goofed and submitted a contract that would put them over the cap the league would inform the team to clear cap then approval would be granted.

I imagine your concern is whether a team has the ability to sign a player and then make the necessary cut afterward to stay under the cap. I would not think that would be problem. It would stand to reason you could come to terms with a player then submit that contract for approval along with notification of the cut.
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
Oh i have. They can add another 20+M by opting out of Graham and Williams contracts and releasing Crosby and Bulaga. Good GM's have solve these things very easily and as long as you are building around #12 there shouldnt be much worry about our cap situation. If he is healthy, we are a playoff team.
Oh, you can always cut guys to clear cap. Easy.

Why not now? Why sign rent-a-players? Why not clear the cap and invest in fewer players but young impact players?

If this team does not win now, then the cap expended this year on Graham, Williams, Bulaga, Wilkerson, Matthews, Cobb and Crosby is wasted.

I get it. Many fans want to win now and deal with the consequences later. I'm all for it if a championship is won. This roster is not good enough, though. A two year plan would have been better.
 

hallzi43

Cheesehead
Joined
Mar 5, 2018
Messages
435
Reaction score
18
Oh, you can always cut guys to clear cap. Easy.

Why not now? Why sign rent-a-players? Why not clear the cap and invest in fewer players but young impact players?

If this team does not win now, then the cap expended this year on Graham, Williams, Bulaga, Wilkerson, Matthews, Cobb and Crosby is wasted.

That was in reply to your thought this isnt a contending team. If it turns not to be, the guys we have signed are expendable. If we are contending, there isnt much a problem.
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
That was in reply to your thought this isnt a contending team. If it turns not to be, the guys we have signed are expendable. If we are contending, there isnt much a problem.
If it turns out not to be, then you've reduced your chances for the next year too becauase you dumped a bunch of cap down the crapper in 2018 for players who won't be around any more.
 

PackerDNA

Cheesehead
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
6,450
Reaction score
1,507
Contracts are submitted to the league for approval. The league won't approve a contract if it puts a team over the cap. I imagine if somebody goofed and submitted a contract that would put them over the cap the league would inform the team to clear cap then approval would be granted.

I imagine your concern is whether a team has the ability to sign a player and then make the necessary cut afterward to stay under the cap. I would not think that would be problem. It would stand to reason you could come to terms with a player then submit that contract for approval along with notification of the cut.


Thanks, HRE. And thanks for all of your time and effort on the cap.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
This leaves effective remaining cap at $5 - $7 mil

There is not sufficient cap for any major FA addition without cutting somebody.

The Packers could restructure the contract of either Matthews or Cobb as well.

2019

overthecap.com shows $54 mil in cap space including rollover of the $16 mil noted above assuming a flat cap at $177.2 mil.

It doesn't make a hige difference but OTC doesn't consider any possible rollover from this season for their numbers for 2019 but expect the cap to raise to $190 million next year.

My question is do you have to be under the cap every second, or could you make a move that puts you over pending another move and have, say, 24 hours to be in compliance?

Teams are allowed to be over the cap during the period after the season has ended until the start of the new league year. With the start of free agency every club has to be under the cap at any point moving forward.

We have 60-80M in cap space looking at us in 2019. Nobody is worried about our cap going forward except you.

I'm not concerned about the cap either but worry about the lack of talent on the roster with currently not a whole lot of money to spend though.

If he is healthy, we are a playoff team.

Agreed, the Packers should be a legit Super Bowl contender with Rodgers though.
 
OP
OP
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
Time to make the donuts again.

We have now a stable picture with more clarity and a better understanding of the details.

2018 BIG PICTURE

Current 2018 cap space for the top 51 according to the NFLPA is approximatedly $10.8 mil ("Cap Room") compared to approximately $10.9 mil about a week ago. This suggests Joey Mbu is included in the top 51, bumping off another player out of the 51 who had a cap number about $100,000 less than his.

https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report

From recent analysis, I've concluded that spotrac.com and overthecap.com should not be referenced for this number or other aggregate numbers.

Using the NLFP data and this source https://www.packersnews.com/story/s...ary-cap-space-entering-free-agency/410810002/ here's the aggregate basic math:

(1) NFLPA 2018 total available cap from the above link = $177.2 mil NFL cap + $3.9 mil carryover + $4.0 mil in unidentified credits and adjustments = $185.2 mil

[While we do not know precisely the nature of the credits and adjustments, one component appears to be "likely to be earned" 2017 incentives that were not earned that are "rebated" prior to the start of the 2018 league year. An example would be per game bonues not earned.]

(2) NFLPA "Prior Year Carryover" = $3.9 mil

(3) NFLPA "Team Cap" = $173.7 mil

(4) Dead Cap + any late adjustments (see Goodson in the above link as a possible example) = $7.6 mil (derived)

(1) = (2) + (3) +(4)


We can also derive the current top 51 cap committments without referring to spotrac or overthecap:

$185.2 total available cap - $10.8 mil remaining cap space - $7.6 mil dead cap + any late adjustments = $166.8 mil top 51 cap commitments

For what it's worth, this top 51 cap commitment number syncs fairly closely to overthecap ($165.5 mil) and spotrac ($165.8 mil), but the $166.8 mil should be deemed more accurate. We'll come back to this cap commitment later.

2018 REMAINING CAP FLEXIBILITY

Players 52 and 53 must be subtracted from cap space: $1.2 mil

The practice squad subtraction is at a minimum 10 players x 17 weeks x $7,600= $1.3 mil + $76,000 per playoff week. I'll us $1.5 mil for this number.

PUP and IR players count against the cap as well as their replacements on the 53 man roster, so some cap can be expected to be held in reserve for these eventualities. If the replacements are minimum salary rookies, the cap cost is about $500,000 per full season equivalent. I'll use $3 million as the reserve. 6 full season rookie equivalents is a healthy number, however you don't know if going to the street for a Howard Green might be called for. Unused reserve carries over to 2019.

Releasing certain players would generate cap savings, Bulaga being the most significant possible example, though that outcome is unknown and clearly dependent on his ability to play. Conversely, releasing a player whose dead cap exceeds his cap savings would bite into the cap, though I do not see any likely candidates in this category. I'll treat these as net zero considerations until events dictate otherwise.

These practical considerations reduces the NFLPA $10.8 cap room cited above to $5.1 usable for additional signings. It's still possible an Ahmad Brooks or Jahri Evans type signing is possible if injury or unsatisfactory performance requires shoring up a position or two.

Anything used now is that much less that cannot be carried over.

2019 OUTLOOK

If your expectation is, "make the playoffs and see what happens", then you can stop here.

My personal view is if the Packers win the Superbowl this season, then I can tolerate some roster rebuilding and year or two of retrenching if that's what's required. If they do not win, then that ultimate goal carries over to 2019 and we return to the annual FA and draft gnashing of teeth in fixing what went wrong. I certainly hope to be wrong, but I do not think this roster is championship caliber. Too much hangs on too many vets returning to former glories, or close to it, while too many first contract players must elevate. It could all come together at the end, but I don't expect it.

Though the NFLPA does supply existing 2019 contractual cap commitments, spotrac shows $152.3 mil for 52 players, or for 2018 apples to 2019 oranges, $151.7 mil in current 2019 top 51 cap commitments. This agrees closely with overthecap's $151.9 mil. Split the difference at $151.8 mil.

Note that the 2019 top 51 committments are only $15 mil less than the current ones, while the 2019 numbers do not include the following free agents:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/green-bay-packers/available/

I find this inauspicious. One can argue the cap will go up $10 mil or so, increasing the cost differential between the two rosters to $25 mil. However, the cost of valued free agents keeps going up at what seems to be a higher percentage rate than the salary cap increase percentage. The rich get richer, etc. etc. And if you do not win in 2018, the FA replacements need to be better than the guys replaced. Re-signing some of them to lesser amounts than currently does not improve the overall talent level. And the $25 mil could be a much lesser amount if Rodgers is renegotiated. The other possibility is that a sufficient number of first contract players ascend to a level of play sufficiently above their pay to compensate for losses. That's a highly optimistic view.

RODGERS CONTRACT WILDCARD

The 2019 numbers assume Rodgers plays under his current contract for 2019 with a cap number of $21.1 mil.

As noted previously, a scenario where, for example 5 years are added to the existing contract with a $100 mil signing bonus is untenable. This was the form of his last extension with smaller numbers. The signing bonus cap hit would be allocated over 2018 - 2022 at $20 mil per year. Not only would that put the Packers $9 mil over the cap right now before further necessary subtractions requiring some significant cuts to clear cap, it adds another $20 mil to the 2019 commitments.

What about just guaranteeing 2018 and 2019, no signing bonus, with the payoff coming is large, guaranteed amounts over the first few of the additional 5 years. For the total 7 years to average $35 mil, those back 5 years would need to average about $41 mil per year. To get to $35 mil per year over 3 years to stay at or near the top of the heap over that period, 2020 baloons to $63 mil. While this might seem palatable in the "2020 is too far out to consider" viewpoint, which I mostly share, that's a prohibitive baloon number while Rodgers might not be to keen on having to wait 2 years to see any of the raise in his pocket. Even still, $35 mil per is too low if keeping up with top earners as he goes along is in fact a negotiatiating point.

Rewriting the last two years of the current deal into a 7 new year deal could create a "cap friendly" structure with that $100 mil signing bonus and $1 mil in salary the first two years. That's break even cap-wise in 2018 and 2019, But the balooning of cap obligations starts in 2020 with very, very large amounts, something the Packers may not wish to look forward too.

Anything that involves something on the order of a $100 million signing bonus to defer as much cap hit as possible raises the question as to whether the Green Bay Packers, Inc. have that cash sum available not already committed to projected needs and reserve.

The overall picture improves if Rodgers is made to finish out the contract and then use the franchise tag in 2020 if performance warrants. I would not be averse to adding a very large "unlikely to be earned" incentive tied to winning the Superbowl to the existing contract for years 2018 and 2019. That probably wouldn't be all that appealing to any player given that outcome is largely out of his control. But it would be better than nothing, and something I believe most would be happy to pay if earned.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

PikeBadger

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
6,483
Reaction score
1,814
Time to make the donuts again.

We have now a stable picture with more clarity and a better understanding of the details.

2018 BIG PICTURE

Current 2018 cap space for the top 51 according to the NFLPA is approximatedly $10.8 mil ("Cap Room") compared to approximately $10.9 mil about a week ago. This suggests Joey Mbu is included in the top 51, bumping off another player out of the 51 who had a cap number about $100,000 less than his.

https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report

From recent analysis, I've concluded that spotrac.com and overthecap.com should not be referenced for this number or other aggregate numbers.

Using the NLFP data and this source https://www.packersnews.com/story/s...ary-cap-space-entering-free-agency/410810002/ here's the aggregate basic math:

(1) NFLPA 2018 total available cap from the above link = $177.2 mil NFL cap + $3.9 mil carryover + $4.0 mil in unidentified credits and adjustments = $185.2 mil

[While we do not know precisely the nature of the credits and adjustments, one component appears to be "likely to be earned" 2017 incentives that were not earned that are "rebated" prior to the start of the 2018 league year. An example would be per game bonues not earned.]

(2) NFLPA "Prior Year Carryover" = $3.9 mil

(3) NFLPA "Team Cap" = $173.7 mil

(4) Dead Cap + any late adjustments (see Goodson in the above link as a possible example) = $7.6 mil (derived)

(1) = (2) + (3) +(4)


We can also derive the current top 51 cap committments without referring to spotrac or overthecap:

$185.2 total available cap - $10.8 mil remaining cap space - $7.6 mil dead cap + any late adjustments = $166.8 mil top 51 cap commitments

For what it's worth, this top 51 cap commitment number syncs fairly closely to overthecap ($165.5 mil) and spotrac ($165.8 mil), but the $166.8 mil should be deemed more accurate. We'll come back to this cap commitment later.

2018 REMAINING CAP FLEXIBILITY

Players 52 and 53 must be subtracted from cap space: $1.2 mil

The practice squad subtraction is at a minimum 10 players x 17 weeks x $7,600= $1.3 mil + $76,000 per playoff week. I'll us $1.5 mil for this number.

PUP and IR players count against the cap as well as their replacements on the 53 man roster, so some cap can be expected to be held in reserve for these eventualities. If the replacements are minimum salary rookies, the cap cost is about $500,000 per full season equivalent. I'll use $3 million as the reserve. 6 full season rookie equivalents is a healthy number, however you don't know if going to the street for a Howard Green might be called for. Unused reserve carries over to 2019.

Releasing certain players would generate cap savings, Bulaga being the most significant possible example, though that outcome is unknown and clearly dependent on his ability to play. Conversely, releasing a player whose dead cap exceeds his cap savings would bite into the cap, though I do not see any likely candidates in this category. I'll treat these as net zero considerations until events dictate otherwise.

These practical considerations reduces the NFLPA $10.8 cap room cited above to $5.1 usable for additional signings. It's still possible an Ahmad Brooks or Jahri Evans type signing is possible if injury or unsatisfactory performance requires shoring up a position or two.

Anything used now is that much less that cannot be carried over.

2019 OUTLOOK

If your expectation is, "make the playoffs and see what happens", then you can stop here.

My personal view is if the Packers win the Superbowl this season, then I can tolerate some roster rebuilding and year or two of retrenching if that's what's required. If they do not win, then that ultimate goal carries over to 2019 and we return to the annual FA and draft gnashing of teeth in fixing what went wrong. I certainly hope to be wrong, but I do not think this roster is championship caliber. Too much hangs on too many vets returning to former glories, or close to it, while too many first contract players must elevate. It could all come together at the end, but I don't expect it.

Though the NFLPA does supply existing 2019 contractual cap commitments, spotrac shows $152.3 mil for 52 players, or for 2018 apples to 2019 oranges, $151.7 mil in current 2019 top 51 cap commitments. This agrees closely with overthecap's $151.9 mil. Split the difference at $151.8 mil.

Note that the 2019 top 51 committments are only $15 mil less than the current ones, while the 2019 numbers do not include the following free agents:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/green-bay-packers/available/

I find this inauspicious. One can argue the cap will go up $10 mil or so, increasing the cost differential between the two rosters to $25 mil. However, the cost of valued free agents keeps going up at what seems to be a higher percentage rate than the salary cap increase percentage. The rich get richer, etc. etc. And if you do not win in 2018, the FA replacements need to be better than the guys replaced. Re-signing some of them to lesser amounts than currently does not improve the overall talent level. And the $25 mil could be a much lesser amount if Rodgers is renegotiated. The other possibility is that a sufficient number of first contract players ascend to a level of play sufficiently above their pay to compensate for losses. That's a highly optimistic view.

RODGERS CONTRACT WILDCARD

The 2019 numbers assume Rodgers plays under his current contract for 2019 with a cap number of $21.1 mil.

As noted previously, a scenario where, for example 5 years are added to the existing contract with a $100 mil signing bonus is untenable. This was the form of his last extension with smaller numbers. The signing bonus cap hit would be allocated over 2018 - 2022 at $20 mil per year. Not only would that put the Packers $9 mil over the cap right now before further necessary subtractions requiring some significant cuts to clear cap, it adds another $20 mil to the 2019 commitments.

What about just guaranteeing 2018 and 2019, no signing bonus, with the payoff coming is large, guaranteed amounts over the first few of the additional 5 years. For the total 7 years to average $35 mil, those back 5 years would need to average about $41 mil per year. To get to $35 mil per year over 3 years to stay at or near the top of the heap over that period, 2020 baloons to $63 mil. While this might seem palatable in the "2020 is too far out to consider" viewpoint, which I mostly share, that's a prohibitive baloon number while Rodgers might not be to keen on having to wait 2 years to see any of the raise in his pocket. Even still, $35 mil per is too low if keeping up with top earners as he goes along is in fact a negotiatiating point.

Rewriting the last two years of the current deal into a 7 new year deal could create a "cap friendly" structure with that $100 mil signing bonus and $1 mil in salary the first two years. That's break even cap-wise in 2018 and 2019, But the balooning of cap obligations starts in 2020 with very, very large amounts, something the Packers may not wish to look forward too.

Anything that involves something on the order of a $100 million signing bonus to defer as much cap hit as possible raises the question as to whether the Green Bay Packers, Inc. have that cash sum available not already committed to projected needs and reserve.

The overall picture improves if Rodgers is made to finish out the contract and then use the franchise tag in 2020 if performance warrants. I would not be averse to adding a very large "unlikely to be earned" incentive tied to winning the Superbowl to the existing contract for years 2018 and 2019. That probably wouldn't be all that appealing to any player given that outcome is largely out of his control. But it would be better than nothing, and something I believe most would be happy to pay if earned.
2019 Cap - we are in the exact middle of the league right now for 2019 cap liabilities. The 14 expiring contracts is not alarming to me at all. We are in better shape than just about everyone else in the league. The only team I could find with less free agents is the LA Chargers with 12. Actually found a couple of Super Bowl teams with more than 30. The big unknown at this point is as you stated, the Rodgers contract restructure. All of this got me to thinking, what happens if fans that left the game last year, don’t come back? What are the NFL revenue numbers going to look like then? There are some very intriguing scenarios that could affect free agency/salary cap/player contract structures etc.
 

Mondio

Cheesehead
Joined
Dec 20, 2014
Messages
15,893
Reaction score
3,797
2019 Cap - we are in the exact middle of the league right now for 2019 cap liabilities. The 14 expiring contracts is not alarming to me at all. We are in better shape than just about everyone else in the league. The only team I could find with less free agents is the LA Chargers with 12. Actually found a couple of Super Bowl teams with more than 30. The big unknown at this point is as you stated, the Rodgers contract restructure. All of this got me to thinking, what happens if fans that left the game last year, don’t come back? What are the NFL revenue numbers going to look like then? There are some very intriguing scenarios that could affect free agency/salary cap/player contract structures etc.
It's based on TV contracts and I'm not sure when those will be renegotiated or expire. Eventually dropping viewership could affect this, but I do not think it's a linear relationship. There are a lot of things competing for our eyeballs and with so many things being viewed online, without commercials and "on demand" any time advertisers can have a larger captive audience, those are dollars better invested. NFL football games most likely will still draw huge money, even if viewership overall is down. the concentration of viewers at that time will be much higher than a lot of other programing where 10,000 people might be watching at any hour of any day.

regardless, most of the people I see talking about the non football issue are people that never took time out of a Sunday to watch a game anyway. Don't get me wrong, football has it's obstacles to retain fan viewers and some of this could blow up, but so far, a lot has been hot air. Nobody I know has stopped following football that actually followed football before. Some say they have, yet they know what's going on with Rodgers and his contract, or that we drafted 3 WR that are tall and fast.
 

Members online

No members online now.
Top