Jake Ryan to jax

[longtimefan]

To Jax

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Thus closing the book on Ted Thompson's Failed 2015 draft.

1. Damarious Randall, CB (30th overall pick)

2. Quinten Rollins, CB (62)

3. Ty Montgomery, WR (94)

4. Jake Ryan, LB (129)

5. Brett Hundley, QB (147)

6. Aaron Ripkowski, FB, (206)

6. Christian Ringo, DE (210)

6. Kennard Backman, TE (213)

 

[gonzozab]

Aaaaaaaaand Teddy's 2015 draft is gone.

 

[Snoops]

That whole draft class lmao

 

[gonzozab]

Is Teddy's now officially monumental failure of a draft class the worst draft class ever? I should really pose this question as a poll.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[OldSchool101]

That’s gotta set some sort of failure record

 

[gonzozab]

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Trivia Question. What do the following names have in common?

1. Damarious Randall
2. Quinten Rollins
3. Ty Montgomery
4. Jake Ryan
5. Brett Hundley
6. Aaron Ripkowski
7. Christian Ringo
8. Kennard Backman

Answer: None of them should have been drafted by the Packers.

 

[gonzozab]

It's as if using a second round pick on a basketball player was a bad decision.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The value of the 2015 draft is, in a way, water that went under the bridge last year and prior, with 2018 closing out their rookie contracts.

Let's say some those guys had panned out. They'd get paid now, there would have been less cap, and some of these new free agent contracts would not get signed. Or they would have moved on as unaffordable and you'd be back to where you are now.

What is relevant today is what do you get this season out of the accumulated 2016 - 2019 cheap rookie contracts?

2019 is entirely unknown and 2018 is still an open book. 2017 and 2016? Not so great:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The value of the 2015 draft is, in a way, water that went under the bridge last year and prior, with 2018 closing out their rookie contracts.

Let's say some those guys had panned out. They'd get paid now, there would have been less cap, and some of these new free agent contracts would not get signed. Or they would have moved on as unaffordable and you'd be back to where you are now.

While somewhat of an optimistic way to look at it, what we don't get out of the 2015 draft class is a 5th year option from one guy or any starters or backup players from the others. The risks of second year contracts aside, I would rather roll that dice on a good quality homegrown player, one that you invested valuable draft capital in.

As far as the money to sign new free agents, I doubt we would have had to spend that money, nor the draft capital along the way to try and make up for the busted picks as each one busted out.

The other thing lost here, is the compensatory picks you can get from losing guys after their 4th/5th year. Jake Ryan is the only one of the 2015 draft that made it that far to account for it, but won't matter at this point, we won't be receiving a CP in 2020.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[thisisnate]

Well, to be fair to Ted on this one, he... yeah, I got nothin.

 

[gbgary]

Thus closing the book on Ted Thompson's Failed 2015 draft.

1. Damarious Randall, CB (30th overall pick)

2. Quinten Rollins, CB (62)

3. Ty Montgomery, WR (94)

4. Jake Ryan, LB (129)

5. Brett Hundley, QB (147)

6. Aaron Ripkowski, FB, (206)

6. Christian Ringo, DE (210)

6. Kennard Backman, TE (213)

geesh!

 

[HardRightEdge]

While somewhat of an optimistic way to look at it, what we don't get out of the 2015 draft class is a 5th year option from one guy or any starters or backup players from the others. The risks of second year contracts aside, I would rather roll that dice on a good quality homegrown player, one that you invested valuable draft capital in.

As far as the money to sign new free agents, I doubt we would have had to spend that money, nor the draft capital along the way to try and make up for the busted picks as each one busted out.

The other thing lost here, is the compensatory picks you can get from losing guys after their 4th/5th year. Jake Ryan is the only one of the 2015 draft that made it that far to account for it, but won't matter at this point, we won't be receiving a CP in 2020.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

While the 5th. year option on Randall would have been a deal had he been Pro Bowl caliber, the rest would have to get paid now what they are worth if they were such players. While there is presumably less risk in paying your own players as known quantities within in a system, paying these 5th. year players had they panned out, recent history has borne that out: Perry, Cobb, Matthews.

Bottom line: If you're paying a star player $2 - $3 mil under a rookie contract that's a key piece in getting aggregate performance over pay. If he gets $10 or $15 mil per year starting in year 5, not so much.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While the 5th. year option on Randall would have been a deal had he been Pro Bowl caliber, the rest would have to get paid now what they are worth if they were such players. While there is presumably less risk in paying your own players as known quantities within in a system, paying these 5th. year players had they panned out, recent history has borne that out: Perry, Cobb, Matthews.

Bottom line: If you're paying a star player $2 - $3 mil under a rookie contract that's a key piece in getting aggregate performance over pay. If he gets $10 or $15 mil per year starting in year 5, not so much.

I think you can put any kind of lipstick you want on the 2015 draft class, but the bottom line to me, it was pretty much a failed draft class. Much like the 2011 class, but at least Cobb emerged out of that one.

 

[El Guapo]

I had hopes that they'd bring back Jake Ryan for cheap. He had 80+ tackles in his second and third seasons and, I thought, was headed to even more in 2018 before blowing out his knee. He seemed to be dependable and might have been a good compliment to Martinez in 2019 for the right price. Oh well.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think you can put any kind of lipstick you want on the 2015 draft class, but the bottom line to me, it was pretty much a failed draft class. Much like the 2011 class, but at least Cobb emerged out of that one.

Where in anything I said did I put lipstick on the 2015 draft? I didn't.

To repeat, my point is when a draft class gets to its 5th. year, which in that is case now, there are no bargains left in the class regardless of what you had done. The damage from that draft was incurred in 2015 - 2018. If those players were any good you'd pay them now or replace them now, and the pay-over-perforance advantage evaporates.

The damage from the 2015 draft is water under the bridge. Mediocre drafts in 2016 and 2017 is a price paid in the 2016 - 2019 window. 2018 and 2019 draft classes better pan out or there isn't any way forward.

 

[PackerDNA]

Ryan is no loss.

 

[OldSchool101]

We also seem to be on a anti-injury prone player kick. Which is completely fine by me

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I had hopes that they'd bring back Jake Ryan for cheap. He had 80+ tackles in his second and third seasons and, I thought, was headed to even more in 2018 before blowing out his knee. He seemed to be dependable and might have been a good compliment to Martinez in 2019 for the right price. Oh well.

Wouldn't be surprised if they felt he was too much like Martinez and Pettine is looking for a faster, more disruptive compliment to Martinez?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Where in anything I said did I put lipstick on the 2015 draft? I didn't.

To repeat, my point is when a draft class gets to its 5th. year, which in that is case now, there are no bargains left in the class regardless of what you had done. The damage from that draft was incurred in 2015 - 2018. If those players were any good you'd pay them now or replace them now, and the pay-over-perforance advantage evaporates.

The damage from the 2015 draft is water under the bridge. Mediocre drafts in 2016 and 2017 is a price paid in the 2016 - 2019 window. 2018 and 2019 draft classes better pan out or there isn't any way forward.

I think we are both going to end up repeating ourselves with this one

For me a Draft class can pay off in several ways:

• Performance of each player while on their 4/5 year contract.
• Are they worth something in a trade before the end of the contract?
• Are they worth resigning after said contract is up?
• Compensatory picks created when not resigned.

We could go through and analyze each of the 8 picks that compromised the 2015 draft class, but right out of the gate, 7 of the 8 don't even fit into the last 2 categories. Although we got Kizer and a swap of 4th and 5th round picks for Randall and a 2020 7th rounder for Monty, I would still say that all 8 collectively fell pretty short of receiving very high marks on all 4 of those items.

Now maybe all you are saying is, "let it go, it doesn't matter, since they are all gone now"? But in evaluating Ted Thompson's 2015 draft class, history isn't going to give it a very high grade and I would fully agree.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Now maybe all you are saying is, "let it go, it doesn't matter, since they are all gone now"?

No, what I'm saying, and I don't know how I could have make it clearer, is if those players were any good they would be in the 5th. year, second contract. You'd be paying those guys or you'd be signing these new free agents but not both.

If they were any good they'd now be outside what is always the needed critical mass of cheap players from the last 4 drafts still on rookie contracts which is now 2016-2019. 2015 is therefore water under the bridge.

This free agent group isn't a replacement for the 2015 draft that never way; they are making up for deficiencies in the last 3 drafts.

I can't think of another way to say it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

No, what I'm saying, and I don't know how I could have make it clearer, is if those players were any good they would be in the 5th. year, second contract. You'd be paying those guys or you'd be signing these new free agents but not both.

If they were any good they'd now be outside what is always the critical window of cheap players from the last 4 drafts which is now 2016-2019. 2015 is therefore water under the bridge.

Honestly, I have no clue what you are trying to say. Sounds like you are indifferent to the fact that all 8 players basically busted out, because their contracts are now up and because of that, we don't have to resign them, but can resign other players. Just an odd "silver lining" if that is what you are pointing out. Since it doesn't take into effect what we didn't get for 4 years from each player.

I would love to have had the "problem" of still having all 8 players on the team and all 8 performed way beyond expectations and we had to figure out a way to keep them all. This also might have meant we won a Super Bowl or 2 during those 4 years. However, out of the 256 players selected in the 2015 draft, the Packers selected 8 and IMO all 8 fell way short of their expected value, while they were actually even on the team. Thus, why I would term the 2015 draft a bust for the Packers.


Doesn't matter to me if they make it to their 5th or 9th year, because while they were Packers, they didn't deliver what was expected out of the investment.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

No, what I'm saying, and I don't know how I could have make it clearer, is if those players were any good they would be in the 5th. year, second contract. You'd be paying those guys or you'd be signing these new free agents but not both.

If they were any good they'd now be outside what is always the needed critical mass of cheap players from the last 4 drafts still on rookie contracts which is now 2016-2019. 2015 is therefore water under the bridge.

This free agent group isn't a replacement for the 2015 draft that never way; they are making up for deficiencies in the last 3 drafts.

I can't think of another way to say it.

Most times I agree with you but that is an odd take in my opinion. While players in their fifth demand more money teams definitely benefit from retaining draft picks even after their rookie deals have expired.

Therefore Thompson's 2015 draft has to be considered a huge failure.