Dantés
Gute Loot
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2017
- Messages
- 12,094
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It's much more fun to be positive in the lead up to the draft and I'm always a little hesitant to say who I DON'T want GB to take because I hate being down on their picks as soon as they're made. But we all have guys we don't like. Who are yours and why? For me, age, size, injury history and athleticism are usually the factors that steer me away from a prospect. Players that don't hit until they're older than the competition fail at a higher rate and players who are exceptions in terms of size and/or athleticism are usually bad bets.
Xavier Worthy & Troy Franklin: Despite the recent success of a some smaller receivers, I am still thoroughly out on guys that are this rail thin. I think being extremely skinny makes a player injury prone, unable to accrue YAC, easy to disrupt during a route, and poor at the catch point.
Troy Fautanu: What bothers me about Fautanu is age and when he broke out. He did not establish himself as a starter until his age 22 season and he wasn't dominant until he was a 23 year old. He will be 24 by week 6 of his rookie year. Compare that to a guy like Graham Barton (who is just straight up better) who was playing at 18 and starting by 19. You don't have to like it, but there is strong correlation between a younger breakout age and succeeding in the NFL. This ought to be common sense-- if you're already good AND you have more development in front of you, chances are you will be better than someone who is through more of their developmental years.
Tyler Guyton & Patrick Paul: Guyton and Paul are both on the older side AND the developmental side. They will be 23 year old rookies who will need at least a redshirt before you want them on the field regularly. 1) I don't want to invest high capital in guys who are old and yet need time. 2) It's a red flag that they're older than their peers but still raw. Furthermore, at 6'7" neither of them have a positional safety net; they make it at tackle or they wash out.
Cooper Beebe: I don't think that Beebe has the length or grip strength to be the player in the NFL that people think he will become. He's probably a guard only and I could see him failing to launch in the NFL just because defenders easily get into his chest and he struggles to stay engaged.
Jer'Zhan Newton: If the Packers draft a defensive lineman, I want someone who can bring a skill that they currently lack. Newton's size/game would be redundant, in my opinion, to Brooks and Wyatt. He doesn't bring the elite length of a Darius Robinson and he doesn't have the true 1T/3T versatility of a Byron Murphy.
Braden Fiske: There are a lot of red flags on Fiske. His length is in the bottom 5th percentile, which gets most of the attention. However, my bigger issue is that he's already 24 years old and didn't dominate in his last year of college. He was pretty good for Florida State, but not great. He was very good in the MAC, a la Karl Brooks. But I don't want to spend a top 50 pick on a guy who was very good in the MAC.
Payton Wilson: Stylistically, I think Wilson and Walker are too similar and wouldn't complement each other. Furthermore, Wilson is old (24 this month) and has an extensive injury history. The age bothers more less in his case (he was very good as a young player for NCSU), but I don't think linebacker and shoulder issues marry well.
Nate Wiggins: A lack of physicality and willingness in the running game and at the catch point were the biggest red flags on Wiggins' scouting report and then he weighed in over 6'1" and 173 pounds. The odds that his profile hits in the NFL are stupidly low. Let someone else make that mistake.
Tyler Nubin & Kam Kinchens: Both of these guys worked out in such a way that they would have to be outliers if they were going to hit in the NFL. It's possible that one or both are exceptions, but I like to let other teams draft exceptions.
Calen Bullock: I just fundamentally hate the idea of a safety being 6'2" and under 190 lbs. I am so sick of DB's who can't get guys on the ground.
Xavier Worthy & Troy Franklin: Despite the recent success of a some smaller receivers, I am still thoroughly out on guys that are this rail thin. I think being extremely skinny makes a player injury prone, unable to accrue YAC, easy to disrupt during a route, and poor at the catch point.
Troy Fautanu: What bothers me about Fautanu is age and when he broke out. He did not establish himself as a starter until his age 22 season and he wasn't dominant until he was a 23 year old. He will be 24 by week 6 of his rookie year. Compare that to a guy like Graham Barton (who is just straight up better) who was playing at 18 and starting by 19. You don't have to like it, but there is strong correlation between a younger breakout age and succeeding in the NFL. This ought to be common sense-- if you're already good AND you have more development in front of you, chances are you will be better than someone who is through more of their developmental years.
Tyler Guyton & Patrick Paul: Guyton and Paul are both on the older side AND the developmental side. They will be 23 year old rookies who will need at least a redshirt before you want them on the field regularly. 1) I don't want to invest high capital in guys who are old and yet need time. 2) It's a red flag that they're older than their peers but still raw. Furthermore, at 6'7" neither of them have a positional safety net; they make it at tackle or they wash out.
Cooper Beebe: I don't think that Beebe has the length or grip strength to be the player in the NFL that people think he will become. He's probably a guard only and I could see him failing to launch in the NFL just because defenders easily get into his chest and he struggles to stay engaged.
Jer'Zhan Newton: If the Packers draft a defensive lineman, I want someone who can bring a skill that they currently lack. Newton's size/game would be redundant, in my opinion, to Brooks and Wyatt. He doesn't bring the elite length of a Darius Robinson and he doesn't have the true 1T/3T versatility of a Byron Murphy.
Braden Fiske: There are a lot of red flags on Fiske. His length is in the bottom 5th percentile, which gets most of the attention. However, my bigger issue is that he's already 24 years old and didn't dominate in his last year of college. He was pretty good for Florida State, but not great. He was very good in the MAC, a la Karl Brooks. But I don't want to spend a top 50 pick on a guy who was very good in the MAC.
Payton Wilson: Stylistically, I think Wilson and Walker are too similar and wouldn't complement each other. Furthermore, Wilson is old (24 this month) and has an extensive injury history. The age bothers more less in his case (he was very good as a young player for NCSU), but I don't think linebacker and shoulder issues marry well.
Nate Wiggins: A lack of physicality and willingness in the running game and at the catch point were the biggest red flags on Wiggins' scouting report and then he weighed in over 6'1" and 173 pounds. The odds that his profile hits in the NFL are stupidly low. Let someone else make that mistake.
Tyler Nubin & Kam Kinchens: Both of these guys worked out in such a way that they would have to be outliers if they were going to hit in the NFL. It's possible that one or both are exceptions, but I like to let other teams draft exceptions.
Calen Bullock: I just fundamentally hate the idea of a safety being 6'2" and under 190 lbs. I am so sick of DB's who can't get guys on the ground.
