The "Do Not Draft List"

Dantés

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For me, when it comes to prospects, there are a few basic categories.

1) The guys I know and love and want my team to draft.

2) The ones I'm less familiar with, but like for whatever reason (maybe they just have good peripherals).

3) The players I'm indifferent towards or totally unaware of (lots of them in my case).

4) The guys I don't know well but lean against (maybe they just have bad peripherals).

5) The "Do Not Draft" guys-- players that I do not want at their projected draft cost and not just because of their position (e.g. another QB for the Packers).

So in that last category, here are my guys:

--Bernhard Raimann, OT, CMU: Where to begin. Raimann will be 25 for the majority of his rookie season. He's raw, having played only one season at tackle. His arms are beneath the 33" threshold. He's coming from a lower level of competition. So super old, super raw, and lacking length. Hard, hard pass.

--Abraham Lucas, OT, WSU: Largely considered a day 2 player, Lucas is an air raid tackle who is underdeveloped as a run blocker and will be 24 as a rookie. You'll notice a theme here: unless it's late, late, I do not want developmental prospects who are old.

--Christian Watson, WR, NDSU: If Watson is truly a fringe 1st round player, I do not want him. He's 23 and raw in his ability to play WR; if you're an old prospect, you better not be a project. He has amazing gifts, but he didn't play to his size in college. I was in on him when the cost was lower, but at this price you can have him. A guy like Jalen Tolbert is the same age and less physically gifted, but he's far more advanced in the details of the position and could be had 1-2 rounds later.

--Boye Mafe, ED, MINN & Arnold Ebiketie, ED, PSU: Both of these guys are in the same bucket for me as over-aged prospects who didn't come on until very late in their careers. They are both attractive prospects at the right price, but as fringe 1st rounders the juice isn't worth the squeeze for me. I struggle to trust players who didn't emerge in college until they were 22/23 years old.

--Devonte Wyatt, iDL, UGA & Phidarian Mathis, iDL, UA: I was never a huge fan of Mathis, but this pains me in regards to Wyatt, who I think is really intriguing overall. But both of these players are 24. I would not draft a 24 yo in the 1st round (you're talking about a guy who will be 29 by the time he's on a second contract), nor on day 2 unless they are special (and Mathis isn't close to special).

The theme here for me is obviously age. And that's two-fold. The obvious problem is that they would project to have shorter careers. But that's actually secondary in my mind. The bigger concern to me is that they had the benefit of being much older and more mature/developed than their competitors. You have to discount the tape grade of a 23 year old beating up on teenagers. And they typically have very old breakout ages (they wouldn't have waited this long to come out if they had broken out earlier), which tends to project poorly in terms of future success.
 

gopkrs

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The age thing does not bother me too much as to longevity as a 24 year old could still have an eight year career at probably any position. But I wonder if a prospect can look better than he is because he is playing against younger, less mature players.
 
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Oh, add Devin Lloyd to the list-- 24 yo rookie at a low value position. That's a no for me in the first round.
 

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--Christian Watson, WR, NDSU: If Watson is truly a fringe 1st round player, I do not want him. He's 23 and raw in his ability to play WR; if you're an old prospect, you better not be a project. He has amazing gifts, but he didn't play to his size in college. I was in on him when the cost was lower, but at this price you can have him. A guy like Jalen Tolbert is the same age and less physically gifted, but he's far more advanced in the details of the position and could be had 1-2 rounds later.

Wow. I'll take a talented receiver that responds well to coaching over someone that's a great route runner minus the athleticism any damn day.

I think reps between AR12 and Watson would speed up the kid's development.

Also, Watson is the kind of WR you scheme open and develope gradually with his understanding of the game.

If Watson is available then GB should take him.
 

wist43

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George Karloftis - I wouldn't consider an edge player that can't win or at least be a consistent speed threat around the corner.

Karloftis can beat average college T's around the corner, but better T's swallow him up. He has a low ceiling.

Drake London - London is always covered. He isn't going to scare anyone with his average speed. Just wouldn't consider a guy that is that limited athletically.

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I don't care about age, but Raimann is close to being a DND guy. He ducks his head - a lot - and I think that might be a function of his short arms.
 

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I pass on guys like Nkobe Dean of Georgia because they are tweeners. Too small to play their college position and too big to move to safety. Same can be said for some edge rushers. Edge rushers need to have a fast burst off the line like TJ Watt. Watching him at Camp Rabdall, you could see he was very similar to CM3. I only watched Karlaftis a couple of times from my living room but didn't see the fast twitch that you need at that position.
 

tynimiller

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George Karloftis - I wouldn't consider an edge player that can't win or at least be a consistent speed threat around the corner.

Karloftis can beat average college T's around the corner, but better T's swallow him up. He has a low ceiling.

Drake London - London is always covered. He isn't going to scare anyone with his average speed. Just wouldn't consider a guy that is that limited athletically.

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I don't care about age, but Raimann is close to being a DND guy. He ducks his head - a lot - and I think that might be a function of his short arms.

Can I get games where Karlaftis illustrates to be such a low grade player threat? He is a hybrid DE/EDGE style player that is comfortable down more than up but when asked illustrated that ability as well….

If you expect to draft him and purely have an edge speed rusher that was an ignorant expectation to have for such a player as he is…but I agree whole heartedly if all you want is a stand up speed rusher from the outside Karlaftis isn’t going to be on that list and shouldn’t be.
 

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Can I get games where Karlaftis illustrates to be such a low grade player threat? He is a hybrid DE/EDGE style player that is comfortable down more than up but when asked illustrated that ability as well….

If you expect to draft him and purely have an edge speed rusher that was an ignorant expectation to have for such a player as he is…but I agree whole heartedly if all you want is a stand up speed rusher from the outside Karlaftis isn’t going to be on that list and shouldn’t be.
So he's more of a Preston Smith type player not CM3 or Z'?
 
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Wow. I'll take a talented receiver that responds well to coaching over someone that's a great route runner minus the athleticism any damn day.

I think reps between AR12 and Watson would speed up the kid's development.

Also, Watson is the kind of WR you scheme open and develope gradually with his understanding of the game.

If Watson is available then GB should take him.

Where? At 22?

I’m not against Watson at any point in the draft, but he is not a first rounder.

He’s a better prospect than MVS was, but not dramatically. MVS went in the 5th.

Also, Tolbert is a good athlete in addition to being a more developed WR, and my preference for him is factoring that he’s projected to go about two rounds later.
 

thequick12

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Id take Watson in the 2nd round I think hes going to be a player...tho I too eould favor younger prospects
 

McKnowledge

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Where? At 22?

I’m not against Watson at any point in the draft, but he is not a first rounder.

He’s a better prospect than MVS was, but not dramatically. MVS went in the 5th.

Also, Tolbert is a good athlete in addition to being a more developed WR, and my preference for him is factoring that he’s projected to go about two rounds later.

Where did I say Christian Watson was a 1st round prospect or worthy of a 1st round selection?

Why don't you read what I posted and stop reaching and instigating.
 
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Where did I say Christian Watson was a 1st round prospect or worthy of a 1st round selection?

Why don't you read what I posted and stop reaching and instigating.

Calm down there, friend.

I was referencing my original post— I’m not against drafting Watson at any point, but as a projected fringe 1st rounder it’s too rich for me and I hence he’s on my list.
 

McKnowledge

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Calm down there, friend.

I was referencing my original post— I’m not against drafting Watson at any point, but as a projected fringe 1st rounder it’s too rich for me and I hence he’s on my list.

Its cool.

Watson is not gonna last past pick #40. That's just my humble opinion.

I just see the hype train coming for Watson and the second round has some great WR depth.

I would like see Watson added to GB but at the appropriate slot.

I think trading the #22 or #28 and getting a few picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds may be the best move.

Not necessarily to get Watson but there are other good WRs like Dotson, Peirce, Pickens, Bell, Moore plus other great players in general.
 

wist43

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Where? At 22?

I’m not against Watson at any point in the draft, but he is not a first rounder.

He’s a better prospect than MVS was, but not dramatically. MVS went in the 5th.

Also, Tolbert is a good athlete in addition to being a more developed WR, and my preference for him is factoring that he’s projected to go about two rounds later.
Watkins is a 1st pick, and Tolbert will go in the 2nd somewhere.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Tolbert go early to mid 2nd round.
 

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Where? At 22?

I’m not against Watson at any point in the draft, but he is not a first rounder.

He’s a better prospect than MVS was, but not dramatically. MVS went in the 5th.

Also, Tolbert is a good athlete in addition to being a more developed WR, and my preference for him is factoring that he’s projected to go about two rounds later.
I just wonder if Tolbert would last until pick #92. I would love him there. If we only have 1 WR in the 1st 4 picks it will be a long and nail biting wait for that pick at 92. Might have to take him at 59.
 

wist43

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I just wonder if Tolbert would last until pick #92. I would love him there. If we only have 1 WR in the 1st 4 picks it will be a long and nail biting wait for that pick at 92. Might have to take him at 59.
Dude, I've seen Tolbert mocked in the 1st!!!

I don't think he'll go that high, but there's a decent chance he's not even there at 53.
 

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Dude, me thinks people put way too much stock in these mock drafts. I just went thru some guys top 100 prospects and Tolbert did not make it. Does that mean this guy is right? Of course not. Though neither does it mean Tolbert won't last until 92 (which I doubt) because he is going in the 1st round in some mocks. I expect him to be available at 59 IMO.
 

tynimiller

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Dude, me thinks people put way too much stock in these mock drafts. I just went thru some guys top 100 prospects and Tolbert did not make it. Does that mean this guy is right? Of course not. Though neither does it mean Tolbert won't last until 92 (which I doubt) because he is going in the 1st round in some mocks. I expect him to be available at 59 IMO.

There is also a massive difference between prospect ranking and projecting where picks will fall.

I place odds Tolbert there at 59 higher than he not being there at 59. 92 is a gamble IMO
 

McKnowledge

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I just wonder if Tolbert would last until pick #92. I would love him there. If we only have 1 WR in the 1st 4 picks it will be a long and nail biting wait for that pick at 92. Might have to take him at 59.

All the second wave of WRs will be gone by #92.

I think GB should consider trading back and getting some picks between 33-50.

That's a sweet spot for good players that fills team needs.

Already possessing the #53 and #59, GB could use one of those to get more picks.

In the end, GB could possibly have 5-7 slots to get the top 60 players in the draft.
 
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Dantés

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I just wonder if Tolbert would last until pick #92. I would love him there. If we only have 1 WR in the 1st 4 picks it will be a long and nail biting wait for that pick at 92. Might have to take him at 59.

Gabe Davis lasted until #128– Tolbert could certainly be there at #92. Or not!

After the first 20 picks or so, trying to get really specific about where guys will go often turns out to be a fool’s errand. There are too many factors involved to be reliably predictive.
 

gopkrs

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All the second wave of WRs will be gone by #92.

I think GB should consider trading back and getting some picks between 33-50.

That's a sweet spot for good players that fills team needs.

Already possessing the #53 and #59, GB could use one of those to get more picks.

In the end, GB could possibly have 5-7 slots to get the top 60 players in the draft.
I understand where you are coming from. I want two very good receivers and I think we need them. If our guys are there at 53 and 59; I have no problem taking them. If not; and we could trade down not very far and we use that pick on a receiver; then I'm on board. Mocks are all over the place as far as how early on the really good receivers are going to go. Any combination of Burks, Watson, Jameson, Moore and Pickens will work for me. If they are there...take them. Otherwise move down a little. I'm thinking the Ohio State receivers will be gone.
 
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I understand where you are coming from. I want two very good receivers and I think we need them. If our guys are there at 53 and 59; I have no problem taking them. If not; and we could trade down not very far and we use that pick on a receiver; then I'm on board. Mocks are all over the place as far as how early on the really good receivers are going to go. Any combination of Burks, Watson, Jameson, Moore and Pickens will work for me. If they are there...take them. Otherwise move down a little. I'm thinking the Ohio State receivers will be gone.
That’s kinda where I’m at also.
It just seems there’s more quality #2 upside WR’s. There’s nothing at all wrong with that I’m not saying there’s no Chance at developing one into a #1 over several seasons.

Yet I feel like other teams will reach a little at WR before our #22 selection and I’m not interested in doing that. Because I also see 3-4 WR in that #30-50 overall range that aren’t really inferior to that 1B grouping. The 2A types smack dab in between our selections. I’d almost rather trade up using #53 packaged it’s much less painful there in Round 2 vs Day 1. It’s possible 1-2 are there at #53 or #59.. but I’d rather not wait and go empty handed.

These are all hypotheticals. I realize were ready to Rake someone over hot coals to even so much as mention not using a Day 1, WR selection. But there’s some Studs should be available earlier Round 2.
 
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To each their own, but Karlaftis is the furthest thing from a DND player for me.

-Over 30 TFL in 27 career starts.
-17.5 TFL in the Big 10 as an 18 year old.
-Just barely turned 21 a week ago.
-9.2 RAS athlete.
-Diverse background of rushing wide, head up, inside, standing up, or hand down.

He's not the ideal fit in that he doesn't complement Smith and Gary with a skill set that's all that diverse, but as a prospect he's about as clean as it gets.
 
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Dantés

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That’s kinda where I’m at also.
It just seems there’s more quality #2 upside WR’s. There’s nothing at all wrong with that I’m not saying there’s no Chance at developing one into a #1 over several seasons.

Yet I feel like other teams will reach a little at WR before our #22 selection and I’m not interested in doing that. Because I also see 3-4 WR in that #30-50 overall range that aren’t really inferior to that 1B grouping. The 2A types smack dab in between our selections. I’d almost rather trade up using #53 packaged it’s much less painful there in Round 2 vs Day 1. It’s possible 1-2 are there at #53 or #59.. but I’d rather not wait and go empty handed.

These are all hypotheticals. I realize were ready to Rake someone over hot coals to even so much as mention not using a Day 1, WR selection. But there’s some Studs should be available earlier Round 2.

I think that people get too hung up, generally, on "#1" versus "#2" and would do better to think in terms of roles.

What does the offense need at the position?

Well it would seem that they need an X who can beat press, they need someone who can consistently separate against man coverage, they need speed in general and particularly vertical speed, they need a power slot who can do dirty work in condensed formations, they need yards after catch/contact skills, they need traditional slot WR skills.

So what do they have currently? They have that power slot and traditional slot in Lazard and Cobb. That's about it.

So in what remains of FA, via trade, and in the draft, they need to start adding those roles that they currently lack. Let the production of #1 vs. #2 vs. #3 come out in the wash-- get the skill sets into the building so that the offense can execute as intended.
 

tynimiller

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To each their own, but Karlaftis is the furthest thing from a DND player for me.

-Over 30 TFL in 27 career starts.
-17.5 TFL in the Big 10 as an 18 year old.
-Just barely turned 21 a week ago.
-9.2 RAS athlete.
-Diverse background of rushing wide, head up, inside, standing up, or hand down.

He's not the ideal fit in that he doesn't complement Smith and Gary with a skill set that's all that diverse, but as a prospect he's about as clean as it gets.

Couldn’t agree more, and liking the post wasn’t enough.
 

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