Your Do Not Draft List

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
613
Reaction score
424
I’m still in on Estime despite the size similarity. Dillon is only back for one season and I think Estimé is just legit good.
Several of you guys are obviously much better judges of football talent than I am, but I really struggle to get a clear read on just how good Estime actually is without Alt and Fisher.

Every single play on his highlight films seem to begin with Alt or Fisher blasting a hole 3-6 yards wide in the defensive line, often plowing D-linemen all the way into the faces of the linebackers, and Estime just racing through the hole while the safeties and cornerbacks try desperately to get an angle on him from halfway across the field. Which is a lot harder for them to do when not a single lineman gets a hand on him to slow him down; the dude's going full speed by the time he's past the D-line, and he just races through the 2nd layer so much faster than the DBs are used to seeing. They just don't have as much time to react and adjust as they're used to. They're not used to seeing a big, powerful running back hitting the secondary so unimpeded.

I'm not saying the man's a one-trick pony, because he clearly has some tools - his power, for one thing; I think a lot of the tackles he breaks are made easier by the fact that he gets through those big holes so fast nobody's close enough to get a clean grasp of him, and first contact is a one-handed grab or a glancing blow, but even when someone does draw a bead on him, he's hard to stop. He also seems to have a gift for spotting late-developing lanes through the linebackers as they adjust to the collapsing line. He has terrific balance and vision, and is a very smart and patient runner. He's a good back, no question - I'm just not sure how good he'd be if he didn't have those snowplows mowing down the D-line ahead of him.
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
14,141
Reaction score
5,014
I’m still in on Estime despite the size similarity. Dillon is only back for one season and I think Estimé is just legit good.

I am a fan for sure, I just sense they don’t is all.

Estime is a dog, have meant him personally and dude is to me a smaller version of Bettis, he has an acceleration a dude his size or build to me shouldn’t.
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
14,141
Reaction score
5,014
Several of you guys are obviously much better judges of football talent than I am, but I really struggle to get a clear read on just how good Estime actually is without Alt and Fisher.

Every single play on his highlight films seem to begin with Alt or Fisher blasting a hole 3-6 yards wide in the defensive line, often plowing D-linemen all the way into the faces of the linebackers, and Estime just racing through the hole while the safeties and cornerbacks try desperately to get an angle on him from halfway across the field. Which is a lot harder for them to do when not a single lineman gets a hand on him to slow him down; the dude's going full speed by the time he's past the D-line, and he just races through the 2nd layer so much faster than the DBs are used to seeing. They just don't have as much time to react and adjust as they're used to. They're not used to seeing a big, powerful running back hitting the secondary so unimpeded.

I'm not saying the man's a one-trick pony, because he clearly has some tools - his power, for one thing; I think a lot of the tackles he breaks are made easier by the fact that he gets through those big holes so fast nobody's close enough to get a clean grasp of him, and first contact is a one-handed grab or a glancing blow, but even when someone does draw a bead on him, he's hard to stop. He also seems to have a gift for spotting late-developing lanes through the linebackers as they adjust to the collapsing line. He has terrific balance and vision, and is a very smart and patient runner. He's a good back, no question - I'm just not sure how good he'd be if he didn't have those snowplows mowing down the D-line ahead of him.

It’s fine to disagree, I don’t see Estime in that sense at all. Our middle of the oline wasn’t nearly as blessed as our edges and there were times Estime was making things happen between the tackles, catch a seem and accelerate after making a man miss.

Will be interesting to see how he does at the next level.
 

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
613
Reaction score
424
It’s fine to disagree, I don’t see Estime in that sense at all. Our middle of the oline wasn’t nearly as blessed as our edges and there were times Estime was making things happen between the tackles, catch a seem and accelerate after making a man miss.

Will be interesting to see how he does at the next level.
I got the sense that I wasn't seeing a well-balanced sampling, because these films were all about his most spectular runs - most of which seemed to start with a huge hole, giving him a full head of steam before he was clear of the line. I saw no plays in which he was stacked up at the line or stuffed behind the line, which of course you know had to have happened. Just the highlight reel runs, almost all of which were probably possible because of the big holes.

So I'm sure it was disproportionate. I know you've seen a hell of a lot more of him than I have.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,545
Reaction score
8,138
Location
Madison, WI
Austin Booker - I know many are excited about his upside, but he has barely played at a program that isn't amazing and he cut down some significant weight from claimed 260s to 240 for the testing and still didn't put up amazing testing scores. Not always a fan of a guy transferring but I think Austin would have been better served transferring to a higher profile school for one year and coming out next year.....not a dice roll I want to take.
I had to laugh when I tried to read this article. I mean who the F writes this stuff? Whoever it was, has no basic clue about football. See if you can pick out the glaring mistakes.

 

Sanguine camper

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 14, 2014
Messages
1,963
Reaction score
592
I looked at some highlights of Marshawn Kneeland from Western Michigan after he came in for a visit to Lambeau. Don't know why? He reminds me of Dean Lowry. Too small for DT and not quick enough for the edge. Please don't draft him. He had midling production in the MAC because he appears to play with a slow initial burst.
 
OP
OP
Dantés

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
It's much more fun to be positive in the lead up to the draft and I'm always a little hesitant to say who I DON'T want GB to take because I hate being down on their picks as soon as they're made. But we all have guys we don't like. Who are yours and why? For me, age, size, injury history and athleticism are usually the factors that steer me away from a prospect. Players that don't hit until they're older than the competition fail at a higher rate and players who are exceptions in terms of size and/or athleticism are usually bad bets.

Xavier Worthy & Troy Franklin: Despite the recent success of a some smaller receivers, I am still thoroughly out on guys that are this rail thin. I think being extremely skinny makes a player injury prone, unable to accrue YAC, easy to disrupt during a route, and poor at the catch point.

Troy Fautanu: What bothers me about Fautanu is age and when he broke out. He did not establish himself as a starter until his age 22 season and he wasn't dominant until he was a 23 year old. He will be 24 by week 6 of his rookie year. Compare that to a guy like Graham Barton (who is just straight up better) who was playing at 18 and starting by 19. You don't have to like it, but there is strong correlation between a younger breakout age and succeeding in the NFL. This ought to be common sense-- if you're already good AND you have more development in front of you, chances are you will be better than someone who is through more of their developmental years.

Tyler Guyton & Patrick Paul: Guyton and Paul are both on the older side AND the developmental side. They will be 23 year old rookies who will need at least a redshirt before you want them on the field regularly. 1) I don't want to invest high capital in guys who are old and yet need time. 2) It's a red flag that they're older than their peers but still raw. Furthermore, at 6'7" neither of them have a positional safety net; they make it at tackle or they wash out.

Cooper Beebe: I don't think that Beebe has the length or grip strength to be the player in the NFL that people think he will become. He's probably a guard only and I could see him failing to launch in the NFL just because defenders easily get into his chest and he struggles to stay engaged.

Jer'Zhan Newton: If the Packers draft a defensive lineman, I want someone who can bring a skill that they currently lack. Newton's size/game would be redundant, in my opinion, to Brooks and Wyatt. He doesn't bring the elite length of a Darius Robinson and he doesn't have the true 1T/3T versatility of a Byron Murphy.

Braden Fiske: There are a lot of red flags on Fiske. His length is in the bottom 5th percentile, which gets most of the attention. However, my bigger issue is that he's already 24 years old and didn't dominate in his last year of college. He was pretty good for Florida State, but not great. He was very good in the MAC, a la Karl Brooks. But I don't want to spend a top 50 pick on a guy who was very good in the MAC.

Payton Wilson: Stylistically, I think Wilson and Walker are too similar and wouldn't complement each other. Furthermore, Wilson is old (24 this month) and has an extensive injury history. The age bothers more less in his case (he was very good as a young player for NCSU), but I don't think linebacker and shoulder issues marry well.

Nate Wiggins: A lack of physicality and willingness in the running game and at the catch point were the biggest red flags on Wiggins' scouting report and then he weighed in over 6'1" and 173 pounds. The odds that his profile hits in the NFL are stupidly low. Let someone else make that mistake.

Tyler Nubin & Kam Kinchens: Both of these guys worked out in such a way that they would have to be outliers if they were going to hit in the NFL. It's possible that one or both are exceptions, but I like to let other teams draft exceptions.

Calen Bullock: I just fundamentally hate the idea of a safety being 6'2" and under 190 lbs. I am so sick of DB's who can't get guys on the ground.

A couple updates on this in my own thought process:

Tyler Guyton: Wikipedia lists his age as being 22 currently and turning 23 in June. Brugler has him a year young-- 21 on draft day. Additionally, the notion of maybe moving Zach Tom inside has me more intrigued with some of the RT prospects (Mims, Guyton, Rosengarten). If Guyton is only 21 and he was late to the offensive line in college (only played it in 2022 and 2023), I can see why he is developmental and still has a clear pathway for growth. So in light of that, I'd be fine with the pick.

Nate Wiggins: I've read that Wiggins played in the 190's and slimmed down in the attempt to blaze the forty (which he did). He's still very soft on film. However, if he can play at 6'1" 190, you can at least envision the potential to grow as a tackler. I'm still not very high on the pick, but I'm a lot lower on the idea if he's trying to play in the 170's.
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
14,141
Reaction score
5,014
A couple updates on this in my own thought process:

Tyler Guyton: Wikipedia lists his age as being 22 currently and turning 23 in June. Brugler has him a year young-- 21 on draft day. Additionally, the notion of maybe moving Zach Tom inside has me more intrigued with some of the RT prospects (Mims, Guyton, Rosengarten). If Guyton is only 21 and he was late to the offensive line in college (only played it in 2022 and 2023), I can see why he is developmental and still has a clear pathway for growth. So in light of that, I'd be fine with the pick.

Nate Wiggins: I've read that Wiggins played in the 190's and slimmed down in the attempt to blaze the forty (which he did). He's still very soft on film. However, if he can play at 6'1" 190, you can at least envision the potential to grow as a tackler. I'm still not very high on the pick, but I'm a lot lower on the idea if he's trying to play in the 170's.

Tom moving inside I brought up a long time ago and remember getting poo poo'd LOL but he truly gives us MASSIVE flexibility and allows Gute if he wants just roll with the best OL prospect if he wants...if that is a Barton/Morgan type likely to slide inside or if it is Guyton/Mims/Suamataia guys that are strongly considered solely RT but high level RT prospects.
 

Members online

No members online now.

Latest posts

Top