The "Do Not Draft List"

tynimiller

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I think that people get too hung up, generally, on "#1" versus "#2" and would do better to think in terms of roles.

What does the offense need at the position?

Well it would seem that they need an X who can beat press, they need someone who can consistently separate against man coverage, they need speed in general and particularly vertical speed, they need a power slot who can do dirty work in condensed formations, they need yards after catch/contact skills, they need traditional slot WR skills.

So what do they have currently? They have that power slot and traditional slot in Lazard and Cobb. That's about it.

So in what remains of FA, via trade, and in the draft, they need to start adding those roles that they currently lack. Let the production of #1 vs. #2 vs. #3 come out in the wash-- get the skill sets into the building so that the offense can execute as intended.

Many don’t care to look at needs and roles and holes like this though…they just flat refuse.
 

gopkrs

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So in what remains of FA, via trade, and in the draft, they need to start adding those roles that they currently lack. Let the production of #1 vs. #2 vs. #3 come out in the wash-- get the skill sets into the building so that the offense can execute as intended.
But saying Cobb is one of two guys we have is almost like saying we need another one.
 

tynimiller

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But saying Cobb is one of two guys we have is almost like saying we need another one.

This simply isn’t true.

When healthy, is the only issue one can have with Cobb. He is the most trusted target with the longest relationship with our QB on the team and balled out at times last year when his number was called.
 

gopkrs

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This simply isn’t true.

When healthy, is the only issue one can have with Cobb. He is the most trusted target with the longest relationship with our QB on the team and balled out at times last year when his number was called.
He is long in the tooth. And being able to stay on the field with the way he plays is certainly not a given. Those were the reasons I said that.
 

tynimiller

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He is long in the tooth. And being able to stay on the field with the way he plays is certainly not a given. Those were the reasons I said that.

Without looking it up how old do you think he is?

Again the on the field thing is fair, but no one can pretend he isn’t still productive when out there and fits the role on this team no one else does presently with Amari in the wings learning and suited skillset wise to replace someday hopefully.
 

gopkrs

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Without looking it up how old do you think he is?

Again the on the field thing is fair, but no one can pretend he isn’t still productive when out there and fits the role on this team no one else does presently with Amari in the wings learning and suited skillset wise to replace someday hopefully.
Ha. I guess I was thinking 30 but don't know. But he seems old. And when we will need him is at the end of the season. Do you trust him to be there?
 
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It's not Cobb's age that concerns me so much as his lack of availability. But he can still play.
 

tynimiller

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Ha. I guess I was thinking 30 but don't know. But he seems old. And when we will need him is at the end of the season. Do you trust him to be there?

Trust him no more or no less than any other slot WR in the league today honestly. It’s not a role which is easy to not get banged up or have injuries.

Shoot even Davante rarely stayed healthy a whole season and he worked the outside.
 

ThePerfectBeard

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Oh, add Devin Lloyd to the list-- 24 yo rookie at a low value position. That's a no for me in the first round.
You cannot put Devin Lloyd and Wyatt on DND because of age. They are extremely good talents at their position who could be great. I understand the thought process, but there are options before you have to sign them to a second contract. The Packers are going to have to adjust their normal philosophies in this draft I think.
 
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You cannot put Devin Lloyd and Wyatt on DND because of age. They are extremely good talents at their position who could be great. I understand the thought process, but there are options before you have to sign them to a second contract. The Packers are going to have to adjust their normal philosophies in this draft I think.

I personally think you can.

In Lloyd’s case, he’s already at a low value position. It’s comparable to a RB. If I’m advocating for either position, off ball LB or RB, in round one, they have to be perfectly clean as prospects. And if you’re that old, it just isn’t there for me.

In Wyatt’s case, you’re talking about a guy who did virtually nothing in CFB until he was 23. That should be terrifying. There is 100% place for drafting a 24 year old who didn’t break out until he was really old if he’s that talented. But it is not the 1st round, in my opinion.

I’m ok with pushing the boundaries beyond what they typically do. There’s a place for it. But don’t get drafting dudes in their mid twenties in the 1st round. There are good alternatives.
 

ThePerfectBeard

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I personally think you can.

In Lloyd’s case, he’s already at a low value position. It’s comparable to a RB. If I’m advocating for either position, off ball LB or RB, in round one, they have to be perfectly clean as prospects. And if you’re that old, it just isn’t there for me.

In Wyatt’s case, you’re talking about a guy who did virtually nothing in CFB until he was 23. That should be terrifying. There is 100% place for drafting a 24 year old who didn’t break out until he was really old if he’s that talented. But it is not the 1st round, in my opinion.

I’m ok with pushing the boundaries beyond what they typically do. There’s a place for it. But don’t get drafting dudes in their mid twenties in the 1st round. There are good alternatives.
So again, I definitely get your points, but I don't think an ILB who can do everything is a low value position. We've seen for years what a captain at that position can do for a defense. Just look at what Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner, Demario Davis, LaVonte David, Devin White, Darius Leonard, and Eric Kendricks do for their teams. Historically, the Packers don't value the position, but I've had this argument for years. Lloyd is a specimen and can do it all. Now, I don't think we'll go after him, but I have no problem with a player like that being 24.

Being a Georgia fan, I'm probably going to go ahead and agree with your take on Wyatt. He has a consistent motor and has consistently improved, but you're probably right that he isn't a first round pick, but more of an early to mid second.
 

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I always think a great middle linebacker can transport your D to the next level. I'm still wanting two receivers in the 1st if the right ones are there though. So from what I have read about him; I wouldn't put him on a dnd list.
 
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So again, I definitely get your points, but I don't think an ILB who can do everything is a low value position. We've seen for years what a captain at that position can do for a defense. Just look at what Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner, Demario Davis, LaVonte David, Devin White, Darius Leonard, and Eric Kendricks do for their teams. Historically, the Packers don't value the position, but I've had this argument for years. Lloyd is a specimen and can do it all. Now, I don't think we'll go after him, but I have no problem with a player like that being 24.

Being a Georgia fan, I'm probably going to go ahead and agree with your take on Wyatt. He has a consistent motor and has consistently improved, but you're probably right that he isn't a first round pick, but more of an early to mid second.

If someone valued the off ball LB position that way, I could understand it. Lloyd is old, but he isn’t a late bloomer— he’s been good for a long time.
 

wist43

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I see Karloftis as somewhere around the 3rd round.

He reminds a bit of Aaron Kampman, but I think Kampman was quicker around the corner. Kampman was 4th round pick (if memory serves me), and it took him some time to develop.

Z. Smith was also a 4th rounder, and took a few years to develop.

As for ILB, Campbell is good enough. I would have preferred Foye Oluokun, but he signed for $5 mil more per year than Campbell.
 

wist43

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So again, I definitely get your points, but I don't think an ILB who can do everything is a low value position. We've seen for years what a captain at that position can do for a defense. Just look at what Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner, Demario Davis, LaVonte David, Devin White, Darius Leonard, and Eric Kendricks do for their teams. Historically, the Packers don't value the position, but I've had this argument for years. Lloyd is a specimen and can do it all. Now, I don't think we'll go after him, but I have no problem with a player like that being 24.

Being a Georgia fan, I'm probably going to go ahead and agree with your take on Wyatt. He has a consistent motor and has consistently improved, but you're probably right that he isn't a first round pick, but more of an early to mid second.
I'm now convinced Wyatt will be long gone. William's too.
 

Schultz

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The original post says at current draft position. It does not say 1st round. Nor does it say whose current draft position.
 
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I see Karloftis as somewhere around the 3rd round.

He reminds a bit of Aaron Kampman, but I think Kampman was quicker around the corner. Kampman was 4th round pick (if memory serves me), and it took him some time to develop.

Z. Smith was also a 4th rounder, and took a few years to develop.

As for ILB, Campbell is good enough. I would have preferred Foye Oluokun, but he signed for $5 mil more per year than Campbell.

Rookie Season Age:

-Kampman: 23
-Smith: 23
-Karlaftis: 21

RAS:

-Kampman: No workout
-Smith: 3.73
-Karlaftis: 9.20

Top-End Production:

-Kampman: 9 sacks as a senior
-Smith: 6.5 sacks as a junior
-Karlaftis: 7.5 sacks as a freshman

Pre-Draft Assessment:

-Kampman: Mid-Round talent
-Smith: Mid-Round talent
-Karlaftis: 1st round lock
 
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The original post says at current draft position. It does not say 1st round. Nor does it say whose current draft position.

Relative to the current consensus projection.

For instance, most everywhere you look Watson is projected to go in the top 40 picks. So the Packers would have to take him in the 1st round, if that holds true. At that valuation, I pass. If the projections are wrong, as they often are, and he's there later, then I would not be opposed to drafting him.
 

tynimiller

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Rookie Season Age:

-Kampman: 23
-Smith: 23
-Karlaftis: 21

RAS:

-Kampman: No workout
-Smith: 3.73
-Karlaftis: 9.20

Top-End Production:

-Kampman: 9 sacks as a senior
-Smith: 6.5 sacks as a junior
-Karlaftis: 7.5 sacks as a freshman

Pre-Draft Assessment:

-Kampman: Mid-Round talent
-Smith: Mid-Round talent
-Karlaftis: 1st round lock

For the record if you enter in his workout day as cited in this article (http://www.espn.com/nfldraft/columnist?id=1361573) and run him as a DE, his RAS is good at 9.88
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I only am adding this, but I agree someone (no offense @wist43 ) is off their rocker if they don't think Karlaftis is a first round graded individual.
 

Schultz

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Relative to the current consensus projection.

For instance, most everywhere you look Watson is projected to go in the top 40 picks. So the Packers would have to take him in the 1st round, if that holds true. At that valuation, I pass. If the projections are wrong, as they often are, and he's there later, then I would not be opposed to drafting him.
Thanks for explaining.
 

Heyjoe4

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Wow. I'll take a talented receiver that responds well to coaching over someone that's a great route runner minus the athleticism any damn day.

I think reps between AR12 and Watson would speed up the kid's development.

Also, Watson is the kind of WR you scheme open and develope gradually with his understanding of the game.

If Watson is available then GB should take him.
I agree on Watson. I like him early in the second round. He's 23, and it seems a good number of guys are between 23 and 25. That's not too concerning, but it does take a fw years off their careers.
 

Heyjoe4

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I think that people get too hung up, generally, on "#1" versus "#2" and would do better to think in terms of roles.

What does the offense need at the position?

Well it would seem that they need an X who can beat press, they need someone who can consistently separate against man coverage, they need speed in general and particularly vertical speed, they need a power slot who can do dirty work in condensed formations, they need yards after catch/contact skills, they need traditional slot WR skills.

So what do they have currently? They have that power slot and traditional slot in Lazard and Cobb. That's about it.

So in what remains of FA, via trade, and in the draft, they need to start adding those roles that they currently lack. Let the production of #1 vs. #2 vs. #3 come out in the wash-- get the skill sets into the building so that the offense can execute as intended.
Good way to look at it. And that's helpful for later rounds, where a guy might not be ideal overall, but have a skillset that is lacking.
 
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While I understand the principle of age “too old”. For me its lower on the totem pole of negatives.

depends more on the position right? We’ve got OL playing high level at 33 years old in todays game. But a RB is rarely playing at 33yrs high level right? If I draft an OG at 23yrs old, I might get 10 years. If I draft a RB at 23yrs, he’s done in 6-7 years.

Plus, what % of overall players sign a contract with their originating drafted team past age 30yrs old? Isn’t that the age we’re more concerned? Exclude QB, K, Etc.. I bet a very, very low % drafted players are remaining with their original team anyway. so it’s a relatively minor impact for me. Certainly not enough to dismiss a top player. Maybe just enough to win a tiebreaker between 2 equal players is about all.

Now age from a standpoint of the first major leap in production in college? That’s a nice thought that makes me think they’ll produce faster. While under rookie deal. Those players come in more polished at 21-22 years old.
 
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McKnowledge

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I agree on Watson. I like him early in the second round. He's 23, and it seems a good number of guys are between 23 and 25. That's not too concerning, but it does take a fw years off their careers.

I think that's all based on perception no?

Watson seems ready to become a professional, and at 23, I expect him to hit the ground running if drafted by GB.

I'll gladly take 10 years of consistently great performances than 15 years of inconsistency.

Some guys careers lasted longer than they should've (Brett Farve) and others didn't last long enough (Sterling Sharpe).
 

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