The Importance of Turnovers

[Pokerbrat2000]

How many games have we watched in our life time where one turnover decides the game?

For the most part the Packers offense was pretty good at protecting the ball in 2015 and that allowed them to finish 10th in the givetake away rankings. However, their defense was only 18th in take aways. A number I hope they can improve on next year. I think the importance of the stat shows up when you look at what teams finished near the top and the teams near the bottom and those teams records.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/sort/takeTotal

If you look at fumbles (recovered by us), we sink all the way down to 29th!

I remember a few times watching Matthews come in for a sack with a clear shot at the ball, but instead he chose to make the big splashy sack instead. Peppers is the only guy that sticks out in my head that seems to make a consistent effort to strip balls. I realize that always going for the ball and not making the tackle isn't the best thing, but you would hope we could improve in this area.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How many games have we watched in our life time where one turnover decides the game?

For the most part the Packers offense was pretty good at protecting the ball in 2015 and that allowed them to finish 10th in the givetake away rankings. However, their defense was only 18th in take aways. A number I hope they can improve on next year. I think the importance of the stat shows up when you look at what teams finished near the top and the teams near the bottom and those teams records.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/sort/takeTotal

If you look at fumbles (recovered by us), we sink all the way down to 29th!

I remember a few times watching Matthews come in for a sack with a clear shot at the ball, but instead he chose to make the big splashy sack instead. Peppers is the only guy that sticks out in my head that seems to make a consistent effort to strip balls. I realize that always going for the ball and not making the tackle isn't the best thing, but you would hope we could improve in this area.

The Packers coaching staff put an emphasis on forcing more fumbles during the 2013 offseason. It seemed to work that year as the defense finsihed tied for sixth in forced fumbles two years ago. Unfortunately the unit has dropped to 20th and 21st respectively in ´14 and ´15. Maybe Capers should once again make it a primary target for next year.

A ton of drops is mostly responsible for the defense not getting more interceptions. According to McGinn the defensive players dropped a total of 18 interceptions while holding on to only 18. It seems that´s an even worse drop rate than Adams.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't recall the year, but I believe it was when Lovie was there. I remember always hearing about the Bears defense being taught to strip the ball whenever possible. That year, I believe the Bears led the league in turnovers and it seemed like the ball was never too safe around their defense. I would like to see more of this by the Packers. Of course, going after the ball and missing it and the tackle, can be a bad thing too!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't recall the year, but I believe it was when Lovie was there. I remember always hearing about the Bears defense being taught to strip the ball whenever possible. That year, I believe the Bears led the league in turnovers and it seemed like the ball was never too safe around their defense. I would like to see more of this by the Packers. Of course, going after the ball and missing it and the tackle, can be a bad thing too!

I would be excited if the Packers forced more fumbles going forward but agree that making the tackle is the most important job for a defender.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

A ton of drops is mostly responsible for the defense not getting more interceptions. According to McGinn the defensive players dropped a total of 18 interceptions while holding on to only 18. It seems that´s an even worse drop rate than Adams.

That's just crazy and a # that really needs to change. Not sure what the league "norm" is, but if they even got 1/2 of those, how does that change the season? I know the ones Shields missed against AZ could have changed the result of that game.

Turnovers can be a matter of luck (good and bad), but when you see who finished at the top of the league in forcing them and/or having fewer, the importance can't be over looked.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's just crazy and a # that really needs to change. Not sure what the league "norm" is, but if they even got 1/2 of those, how does that change the season? I know the ones Shields missed against AZ could have changed the result of that game.

Turnovers can be a matter of luck (good and bad), but when you see who finished at the top of the league in forcing them and/or having fewer, the importance can't be over looked.

I think that both getting interceptions and forcing fumbles is a talent that can be practiced to some degree as well. Recovering fumbles is mostly luck though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Recovering fumbles is mostly luck though.

Unless you are Cam Newton and don't think its worth your time to try to recover one.

 

[jrock645]

Well, our db's need to take advantage of opportunities for INT's. In years past, our secondary could be pretty opportunistic. Not so this year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Well, our db's need to take advantage of opportunities for INT's. In years past, our secondary could be pretty opportunistic. Not so this year.

I agree, we had missed opportunities for more INT's, but we were 9th in the league in that category and 29th in fumbles recovered. Lack of hard hitting or stripping the ball or just bad luck?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree, we had missed opportunities for more INT's, but we were 9th in the league in that category and 29th in fumbles recovered. Lack of hard hitting or stripping the ball or just bad luck?

Well, we ranked only 21st in forced fumbles as well, which IMO is the more important category as recovering a fumble is pure luck.

 

[Half Empty]

Not if a player deliberately backs away from a recovery.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not if a player deliberately backs away from a recovery.

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[Mondio]

Big talent, big body, small mentality. he's Cam. When things are great, it's all about him. When it's bad, he's a child. Soaks up every last everyliving second he can with the camera all on him when things are good. When they aren't so good, sulks and whines like a child. You CAN show grace in defeat and not like it. it's called maturity. Who wouldn't like to just act on every feeling however they'd like to at any given moment. He's right, it tells me "who" he is. A big talent with a small mind and no maturity. Maybe he'll grow up one day

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers coaching staff put an emphasis on forcing more fumbles during the 2013 offseason. It seemed to work that year as the defense finsihed tied for sixth in forced fumbles two years ago. Unfortunately the unit has dropped to 20th and 21st respectively in ´14 and ´15. Maybe Capers should once again make it a primary target for next year.

A ton of drops is mostly responsible for the defense not getting more interceptions. According to McGinn the defensive players dropped a total of 18 interceptions while holding on to only 18. It seems that´s an even worse drop rate than Adams.

Shields had 2 if not 3 alone in the Arizona game that should have been picks.

 

[Mondio]

Shields had 2 if not 3 alone in the Arizona game that should have been picks.

I think that month off from the concussion was evident then. He normally is fairly good at playing the ball in the air. he locates it well and makes a play. He was just out so long. His physical skills were there and he could keep up to receivers, but he just couldn't locate and make a play on the ball like normal. I think it was from missing so much game time. But that's how she goes sometimes.

 

[El Guapo]

Either that or he played a great game on the ground but just had a bad game catching passes. I doubt that he forgot how to catch a ball. Either way he missed some. It happens, and unfortunately it happened to the Packers too much this season.

 

[Mondio]

Either that or he played a great game on the ground but just had a bad game catching passes. I doubt that he forgot how to catch a ball. Either way he missed some. It happens, and unfortunately it happened to the Packers too much this season.

it's not that he forgot how to catch, but breaking with receivers then getting your head up and locating and catching the ball takes reps. It's why you see those dropped by both receivers and DB's in TC and the preseason, but less as the season goes on. They get used to all the things happening at game speed. It's a lot easier to just catch a ball, or just run with a receiver than it is to run with a receiver, react to a break, have your eyes leave the receiver, locate the ball, make a play on it, then catch it. It's obvious he had a bad day catching the ball, I think that's why. I think if he'd have had 2 weeks of game play heading into the playoffs, he makes at least 1, probably 2 INT's on those chances.

 

[JBlood]

If you look at fumbles (recovered by us), we sink all the way down to 29th!

You probably have to hit someone in order to get them to fumble.

 

[jrock645]

I agree, we had missed opportunities for more INT's, but we were 9th in the league in that category and 29th in fumbles recovered. Lack of hard hitting or stripping the ball or just bad luck?

A little of all of that. We don't have a terribly punishing defense and they've never played for strips like Chicago did under Lovie. Granted, I'd rather be a good tackling team than risk big plays going for the fluke fumbles, if I have to trade.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The 2012 Bears Defense lead the league in turnovers with 44, The Packers had 22 this year. The Bears defense also had 8 Pick 6's that year and only gave up about 15 points/game. The biggest reason they finished 10-6 and didn't make the playoffs was that their offense failed them the last half of the season.

While I don't expect a season of 44 turnovers (Carolina led the league with 39 in 2015), it sure would be nice to see the Packers secondary be more sure handed and see more aggressiveness when it comes to trying to force fumbles.

 

[TJV]

Perhaps the most important TO stat is TO differential. Interesting that while Carolina led the league in TO differential with +20, Denver tied for 19th at -4. The Packers tied for 10th with +5. (The Packers led the league last season with +14.)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Perhaps the most important TO stat is TO differential. Interesting that while Carolina led the league in TO differential with +20, Denver tied for 19th at -4. The Packers tied for 10th with +5. (The Packers led the league last season with +14.)

While I agree TO differential is an important stat. and a team always strives to be on the plus side of it, IMO if you only look at it alone, you don't see the big picture. All you see is +/- stat. that combines both the offense and defenses abilities in this area. The Packers are a classic example of that this year. We all know Rodgers doesn't throw a lot of picks and for the most part, our offense was average on securing the ball and not fumbling, which is why we were tied for 4th best in the league at not turning the ball over. So this inflates our differential and the casual observer will say "Hey we were really pretty good in the turnover department this year". But were we? Not on forcing them, that's on the defense.

I view this as almost the same as looking at scoring differential. You can have a really high powered offense and if at the end of the year you say, "Hey our point differential was tops in the league", does this matter if your defense sucks?

So while our offense continues to do very well in hanging on to the ball, I think our defense could use some improvement on taking it away.

 

[Half Empty]

While I agree TO differential is an important stat. and a team always strives to be on the plus side of it, IMO if you only look at it alone, you don't see the big picture. All you see is +/- stat. that combines both the offense and defenses abilities in this area. The Packers are a classic example of that this year. We all know Rodgers doesn't throw a lot of picks and for the most part, our offense was average on securing the ball and not fumbling, which is why we were tied for 4th best in the league at not turning the ball over. So this inflates our differential and the casual observer will say "Hey we were really pretty good in the turnover department this year". But were we? Not on forcing them, that's on the defense.

I view this as almost the same as looking at scoring differential. You can have a really high powered offense and if at the end of the year you say, "Hey our point differential was tops in the league", does this matter if your defense sucks?

So while our offense continues to do very well in hanging on to the ball, I think our defense could use some improvement on taking it away.

My concern would be that turnovers correlate pretty well with winning (turn it over less than the other guy, you probably win), but point differential correlates exactly to winning (score more than the other guy, you do win). If the defense sucks, but your team still has the top point differential, the offense must be lights-out. I'd point to the 2011 Packers as the prime example. We all felt the defense was poor/suspect/inadequate, but the offense just blew everyone else away (except, of course, when it counted).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My concern would be that turnovers correlate pretty well with winning (turn it over less than the other guy, you probably win), but point differential correlates exactly to winning (score more than the other guy, you do win). If the defense sucks, but your team still has the top point differential, the offense must be lights-out. I'd point to the 2011 Packers as the prime example. We all felt the defense was poor/suspect/inadequate, but the offense just blew everyone else away (except, of course, when it counted).

The 2011 Packers were ranked second in the league in TO differential at +24 during the regular season. Once they lost the turnover battle in the playoffs (-3) against the Giants the team was eliminated. Especially in the playoffs the TO margin is pretty important.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

(except, of course, when it counted).

LOL....probably the part I had in my mind when trying to correlate the two stats. Guess all I am trying to say is that if all you look at is the TO differential (which yes, its important) you are mixing offensive and defensive stats the can dilute the big picture. This year the Packers defense was not very good at forcing turnovers and I think it showed in some of the outcomes.