The Aaron Rodgers performance thread

[Deleted member 6794]

I thought he was just talking about maybe the talent level of the receivers was/is not as bad as most think. Not necessarily a knock on Rodgers (although I do wish he would stop the facial expressions except when they are directed at himself). A lot of factors could be involved. eg, maybe relying on Graham so much when he was mostly out there just taking up space. Maybe clogging things up. Looking forward to Sternberger playing well.

I'm convinced the lack of overall talent at wide receiver was the main factor for the passing offense struggling last season. It would definitely be a knock on Rodgers if anybody disagrees with that take.

The offense didn't rely on Graham at all as he was targeted on only 11.3% of all passes. While I definitely hope Sternberger will have an impact this season I'm not overly confident about it.

No, but in the context of a discussion in which that HOF QB's recent performance is being questioned, and the quality of his receivers is being posited as a relevant factor, we'll likely get some.usable data and perspective on that specific factor.

In my opinion the depth chart at wide receiver and tight end last season provides sufficient useable data to make an educated guess about who to blame for Rodgers struggling.

 

[HardRightEdge]

...every quarterback in the NFL has favorites.

I put this to the test, looking at the 38 NFL players with at least 100 targets last season, adjusted for how frequently teams pass and adjusting for receiver games played. The data is for regular season only.

For example, the Packers threw 573 times (including 4 Boyle tosses), Adams played 12 games and had 127 targets.

573 / 16 x 12 = 430 prorated passes over 12 games. 127/430 = Adams drawing 29.6% of targets.

I've applied this formula to the other 37 players, with some comparisons to follow. Adams is unique in having missed as many as 4 games among those 38 players. Two missed 3 games (Evan and Kirk). 22 played all 16 games.

Instead of the prorated passes, we can look at the passes thrown and Adams targets in his actual games played. The Packers threw just slighly more in those 12 games with Adams target % dropping slightly:

127 targets / 436 passes = Adams drawing 29.1% of targets.

Similar adjustments for the other 37 players would be simply too much work, but with so few games missed among those other players the differences would likely be negligible compared to the prorated games methond. So, here are the top 20 "most favored receivers" based on a percentage of team targets adjusted for games played:

31.8 Michael Thomas
30.0 DeAndre Hopkins
29.1 Davante Adams
26.6 Allen Robinson
25.6 Jarvis Landry
25.6 George Kittle
25.0 Keenan Allen
24.7 Julian Eddelman
24.7 Odell Beckham, Jr.
24.6 Courtland Sutton
24.5 Julio Jones
24.0 Tyler Boyd
23.9 John Brown
23.8 Christian Kirk
23.6 Travis Kelce
23.5 Zach Ertz
23.5 Robert Woods
23.4 Jamison Crowder
23.1 Mike Evans
22.7 D.J. Moore

So, Adams was the 3rd. "most favored receiver" in the league. But how much difference is that really in Adams drawing 4.5% more team targets than 10th. ranked Sutton or 6.4% more team targets than 20th. ranked D.J. Moore?

The league threw 17,853 passes last season, 558 per team on average, 35 per team per game on average. The Packers threw 36 times per game.

4.5% of 35 passes is 1.6 targets per game. 6.4% of 35 passes is 2.3 targets per game.

Does Adams deserve those additional targets, 1.6 more per game than Sutton or 2.3 mor than Moore? It is not unreasonable to think so. There isn't much evidence to support the "Adams tunnel vision" argument.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Allison could catch 115 balls for 1,800 yards and 17 touchdowns next year and it still won't change the fact that he routinely let the offense and Rodgers down in 2019.

Adams let the offense and Rodgers down last year? Why? How? All I can think of is his turf toe injury that wasn’t his fault. Otherwise, he came within inches of a 1,000 yard year, in 12 games.

I’ll take that underperformance all day.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm convinced the lack of overall talent at wide receiver was the main factor for the passing offense struggling last season. It would definitely be a knock on Rodgers if anybody disagrees with that take.

The offense didn't rely on Graham at all as he was targeted on only 11.3% of all passes. While I definitely hope Sternberger will have an impact this season I'm not overly confident about it.



In my opinion the depth chart at wide receiver and tight end last season provides sufficient useable data to make an educated guess about who to blame for Rodgers struggling.

Kind of amazing that they won 14 games last year with that WR/TE group. I don’t know what that group will look like come opening day, but it will be a lot different than last year, I hope.

 

[gbgary]

Actually it's the receivers fault when not being prepared. While the coaches should definitely reduce those players snaps the lack of talent at the position most likely prevented them from doing it last season.

There's no reason for Rodgers to target receivers that lack talent or knowledge of the playbook.

these guys have offseason camps, training camp, and once selected a week's practice before a game to prove they're prepared. yes they have a responsibility to know their jobs but coaches shouldn't put them out there if they don't.
they wouldn't be on the team if they didn't have talent. their getting open shows they do...and we already know they ARE getting open. rodgers doesn't have the luxury of building a relationship with guys anymore. he needs to be more favre-like and just them the ball if they're open...and again, we know they're open.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

Watching the Pack vs Steelers Super Bowl. Fun.

 

[Heyjoe4]

these guys have offseason camps, training camp, and once selected a week's practice before a game to prove they're prepared. yes they have a responsibility to know their jobs but coaches shouldn't put them out there if they don't.
they wouldn't be on the team if they didn't have talent. their getting open shows they do...and we already know they ARE getting open. rodgers doesn't have the luxury of building a relationship with guys anymore. he needs to be more favre-like and just them the ball if they're open...and again, we know they're open.

Good point Gary. If guys don’t have talent and don’t know the playbook (and a few other common sense things you mentionEd), they shouldn’t be on the team. It’s not a sports a analogy, but the Stones practice for months before they hit the road on tour. They want a perfect performance. At this point, they’re playing songs they’ve played for many, many years. The key is flawless execution, and that has to be practiced and practiced and practiced, no matter how good you are (or in the case of the Stones, how old you are).

Like any business, some people are just lazy. If those people are GB players, show em the door. It’s not all on Rodgers, that’s for sure.

 

[Do7]

Watching the Pack vs Steelers Super Bowl. Fun.

We will make it back to another Superbowl and win it. I say within these next 2 years.

 

[GleefulGary]

Adams let the offense and Rodgers down last year? Why? How? All I can think of is his turf toe injury that wasn’t his fault. Otherwise, he came within inches of a 1,000 yard year, in 12 games.

I’ll take that underperformance all day.

Read what you quoted one more time.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

There isn't much evidence to support the "Adams tunnel vision" argument.

Especially considering the Packers were one of only two teams in the league that didn't feature at least two pass catchers with a minimum of 500 receiving yards.

these guys have offseason camps, training camp, and once selected a week's practice before a game to prove they're prepared. yes they have a responsibility to know their jobs but coaches shouldn't put them out there if they don't.

Unfortunately the coaches can only bench players if they have more talented replacements available to put on the field. That was obviously an issue with the receiving corps last season.

they wouldn't be on the team if they didn't have talent. their getting open shows they do...and we already know they ARE getting open. rodgers doesn't have the luxury of building a relationship with guys anymore. he needs to be more favre-like and just them the ball if they're open...and again, we know they're open.

There's no evidence that Allison, MVS, Kumerow, Shepherd or Davis were able to get open on a consistent basis.

 

[PackAttack12]

There's no evidence that Allison, MVS, Kumerow, Shepherd or Davis were able to get open on a consistent basis.

There is plenty of evidence if you choose to look through Gary Goggles.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Especially considering the Packers were one of only two teams in the league that didn't feature at least two pass catchers with a minimum of 500 receiving yards.

I avoided that issue because the counter argument might be that was a function of tunnel vision. Of course, we know it was not.

 

[Pugger]

Kind of amazing that they won 14 games last year with that WR/TE group. I don’t know what that group will look like come opening day, but it will be a lot different than last year, I hope.

And this is why I'm kinda excited for this upcoming season if Gute bolsters our WR corps.

 

[HardRightEdge]

So, what was the last year the critics would say "Rodgers was Rodgers"? It would have to be 2016, the season prior to having his right collar bone busted up, with the following regular season stat line:

65.6% / 4,428 yds. / 40 TDs / 7 INTs / 104.2 passer rating.

He must have been a better downfield pass that year than in 2019, right? Wrong.

Using pro-football-reference.com play finder screening for what they categorize as "deep passes", meaning 15+ air yards, we get the following Rodgers stats:

2016: 122 passes / 38.5% / 1,431 yards / 8 TDs / 3 INTs / 94.7 passer rating

2019: 127 passes / 37.0% / 1,419 yards / 10 TDs / 1 INT / 102.4 passer rating

2016 had:

• Nelson going 1,200+ yds./14 TDs in his ACL comeback year, 16 games played
• Adams having his breakout year going 997 yds./12 TDs, 16 games played
• Cobb chipping in for 600+/4 in 13 games
• Montogomery chipping in from the RB position
• Cook chipping in over 10 games played

2019 had:

• Adams who missed 4 games
• Jones and Williams combining for 88/727/8
• Graham's ups and downs
• Lazard's decent play over the back half of the season

Here we have yet another instance of confirmation bias, which is just a fancy way of saying evidence that supports a preexisting bias is noted while the evidence that debunks it is ignored. A close friend of confirmation bias is anecdotal evidence--a replay clip here and a replay clip there intended to support an argument when the body of work says otherwise.

Some would want to compare 2019 performance to 2011. Really? Arguably the greatest single season QB performance in the history of the game, those numbers compiled on only 502 throws? That was never to be repeated, just as Mahomes will never repeat his 2018 season, and Brady's 2007 was never repeated. And frankly, none of those three seasons ended in a Super Bowl win.

 

[gbgary]

There's no evidence that Allison, MVS, Kumerow, Shepherd or Davis were able to get open on a consistent basis.

add lazard and any TE lining up in the slot. one guy consistently open? no...but someone was open at least initially a lot. stuff happened, things broke down, etc. all i'm saying is at this point rodgers needs to be less picky and take a few more risks. he's got nothing to lose. it's not like it's going to cost them a super bowl or anything.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Read what you quoted one more time.

My bad. Retracted. Thanks Gary and sorry PackAttack. Senior moment.....

 

[Heyjoe4]

add lazard and any TE lining up in the slot. one guy consistently open? no...but someone was open at least initially a lot. stuff happened, things broke down, etc. all i'm saying is at this point rodgers needs to be less picky and take a few more risks. he's got nothing to lose. it's not like it's going to cost them a super bowl or anything.

It’s impossible to get into Rodgers’ head to decide if he’d rather throw the ball away than take a calculated risk (INT). His completion percentage seems to be dropping. I get angry too with the incompletions. That said, I have enough trust in Rodgers and his command of the game to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[HardRightEdge]

all i'm saying is at this point rodgers needs to be less picky and take a few more risks. he's got nothing to lose. it's not like it's going to cost them a super bowl or anything.

Right. Just wing it around since this 13-3 team has no chance of going anywhere. There's nothing to lose except football games, assuming they are played. You're sounding like one of those Favre dead-enders.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It’s impossible to get into Rodgers’ head to decide if he’d rather throw the ball away than take a calculated risk (INT). His completion percentage seems to be dropping. I get angry too with the incompletions. That said, I have enough trust in Rodgers and his command of the game to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I don't know how often I have to repeat this. What's the difference between Rodgers' career completion percentage when he was hailed as the GOAT pre-2017 vs. last year? About one incompletion per game.

And the INTs are down in the process. Of the 4 picks last year, there was the one that bounced off MVS on a short throw in the end zone against Philly, debated here as possible interference. That was to tie and go to OT. There was the one that bounced off Shepherd at the goal line that, along with a fumbled punt, got him cut. There was a long throw, nothing to lose, sideline psudo-punt on 3rd. and 20 directed toward Kumerow. That leaves one Rodgers mistake, misreading a zone coverage on a throw to Adams, picked off by Harris in the second Vikings game.

I don't think you have to get into Rodgers' head to know his risk/reward calculations. They are written all over the field, and they prioritize limiting INTs.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I avoided that issue because the counter argument might be that was a function of tunnel vision. Of course, we know it was not.

That argument wouldn't be valid as Rodgers threw more than 70% of his passes to a different receiver than Adams.

add lazard and any TE lining up in the slot. one guy consistently open? no...but someone was open at least initially a lot. stuff happened, things broke down, etc. all i'm saying is at this point rodgers needs to be less picky and take a few more risks. he's got nothing to lose. it's not like it's going to cost them a super bowl or anything.

It doesn't make any sense for Rodgers to force throwing the ball to receivers that aren't in the right spot or have troubles catching or holding on to the ball.

Once again, he missed open receivers from time to time. That happens to every other quarterback in the league as well.

But he definitely wasn't the main reason for the passing offense struggling.

 

[Do7]

I know this is obvious, but next year is gonna tell us a lot. With a year under the new system in his belt, HOPEFULLY a better plethora of weapons, it's safe to say Rodgers is gonna once again have to prove himself.

I still feel like we're beyond the point of criticizing him what he does in the regular season and it should only matter what happens in the postseason. I mean we got to the NFC Championship again, and last time Rodgers was in the playoffs we were in the NFC Championship. Yes we fell short, but not bad if you ask me.

 

[gbgary]

Right. Just wing it around since this 13-3 team has no chance of going anywhere. There's nothing to lose except football games, assuming they are played. You're sounding like one of those Favre dead-enders.

what the heck is a favre dead-ender?
we all know that 13-3 record was very deceptive. no need to discuss that further.

 

[rmontro]

I still feel like we're beyond the point of criticizing him what he does in the regular season and it should only matter what happens in the postseason

The regular season plays into that though. If we hadn't wrapped up that #2 seed, we probably would have never gotten to that NFC Championship Game.

 

[Mondio]

The regular season plays into that though. If we hadn't wrapped up that #2 seed, we probably would have never gotten to that NFC Championship Game.

why not? Seattle was going to beat us? MN was going to beat us? The team that MN beat was going to beat us? I was hoping for the Saints at Lambeau, sure we could have lost, but I don't think we would have. I think we would have done a great job putting pressure right up in Drew's face and between that and the cold they would have gotten stomped.

But seriously, We beat Seattle in the playoffs, beat MN Twice once with the division still on the line at the end of the season, lost to the Eagles in close one, and didn't play the Saints. I don't think the Eagles were in any position to put up much of a fight by the time playoffs came around. I would have loved a shot at the Saints. But then I guess if we beat them, then it would have been MN or the 9ers to get to the NFCCG so maybe we don't make it. But then Seattle would have deserved it?

 

[Heyjoe4]

I know this is obvious, but next year is gonna tell us a lot. With a year under the new system in his belt, HOPEFULLY a better plethora of weapons, it's safe to say Rodgers is gonna once again have to prove himself.

I still feel like we're beyond the point of criticizing him what he does in the regular season and it should only matter what happens in the postseason. I mean we got to the NFC Championship again, and last time Rodgers was in the playoffs we were in the NFC Championship. Yes we fell short, but not bad if you ask me.

Fans of a lotta other teams would kill for the kind of teams GB has fielded since the Holmgren/Favre/Wolf era began. To go from one HOF QB to another is incredible. Could GB have won a few more SBs? Yeah, I think so with better drafting and better use of free agency. But all in all, we have little to complain about. Quite the opposite.