Team Changes for Next Season

[El Guapo]

I guess you are talking CM3 with 0 tackles. But he did not play middle linebacker. They put him on the D line in the middle and iet him move around the center. Looking to rush.

I think that he's talking about that season where injuries hit the ILB group so bad that they did move Clay Matthews to ILB for a stretch of games.

 

[OldSchool101]

I still disagree with that statement. He had 11 sacks the year we moved him halfway (ish) through the season. He got moved there because Hawk was our best ILB (and getting old and slow himself) and everyone else was terrible. 6.5 sacks the next year as a primary ILB, 3rd down edge rusher.

Was he past his peak, sure. 2016, he moved back to OLB full time, but missed time due to injury, only starting 9/playing 12 games. Still logged 5 sacks in limited time.

I’ve always defended that move. Used to drive Captainwhimm crazy. Yet I remember that season well as I tracked the rankings. The move out Nick Perry Square on the field with Peppers on the other side. Even Parsons gets slack as a “bad run defender” which is totally untrue and you can see him right up until injury playing the Run really well. Heck he chased down Caleb on a run and literally saved what would’ve been a game winning TD scramble. Here Nick Perry was able to get FT work. That group took us from #21 ranked pre Bye Week to a #13 ranked Scoring Defense by Week 17. Do the math. If you’re 8 tests in averaging a D+ grade? What do you need to score on the next 8 contests to move to a solid B grade? A #5 area scoring D is the answer and that was one of Dom Capers bullseye moves imo.

PS the reason I remember as I said we needed about a number 12 ranked defense to put us over the top. We ended up finishing that number 13 and we lost an overtime in the NFC championship game. I don’t normally get that lucky but a sliver better D and we were poised to go all the way.

 

[mradtke66]

I’ve always defended that move. Used to drive Captainwhimm crazy. Yet I remember that season well as I tracked the rankings. The move out Nick Perry Square on the field with Peppers on the other side. Even Parsons gets slack as a “bad run defender” which is totally untrue and you can see him right up until injury playing the Run really well. Heck he chased down Caleb on a run and literally saved what would’ve been a game winning TD scramble. Here Nick Perry was able to get FT work. That group took us from #21 ranked pre Bye Week to a #13 ranked Scoring Defense by Week 17. Do the math. If you’re 8 tests in averaging a D+ grade? What do you need to score on the next 8 contests to move to a solid B grade? A #5 area scoring D is the answer and that was one of Dom Capers bullseye moves imo.

At the time, the move was necessary. Our ILBs were awful and got our best players on the field. It's just that Matthews wasn't really that good of an ILB and it didn't take too long for the league to target and thus exploit him.

 

[OldSchool101]

At the time, the move was necessary. Our ILBs were awful and got our best players on the field. It's just that Matthews wasn't really that good of an ILB and it didn't take too long for the league to target and thus exploit him.

The only one getting exploited directly after they moved CM3 was our opponent. CM3 was never built to be a Stack Backer. He’s a prototypical Edge. Yet this was the result of CM3 playing iLB in 2014.

19.65 pts/game allowed
84.4 yards/gm rushing allowed
(#4 ranked in the NFL across that span)
7-1 record
1-1 in Postseason
(should’ve been a SB appearance)

42 tackles (pacing 84)
27 Solo (pacing 54)
9 TFL (pacing 18 TFL; 21.4% TFL rate)
14 QB hits (pacing 28 QB hits)
5 PD (pacing 10 Pass Def)
8.5 Sacks (pacing 17 Sacks and yes he did that in 8 contests)

This was bad iLB play?

As a comparison this was Edgerrin Cooper production in his 16 games (divided by 2 to symbolize a similar 8 games)

59 Tackles
31 Solo
2 TFL
1.5 QB Hits
1.5 PD
0.5 Sacks
0.5 FF

The CM3 move will go down as pure brilliance on Dom Capers part. It was a gutsy call and it was an absolute 100% BULLSEYE Coordinator A+ move. I’m not even a big Dom supporter, but it’s undeniable in brilliance.

 

[mradtke66]

Sure, Maybe sometime later. The only one getting exploited directly after they moved CM3 was our opponent. CM3 was never built to be a Stack Backer. He’s a prototypical Edge. Yet this was the result of CM3 playing iLB in 2014.

19.65 pts/game allowed
84.4 yards/gm rushing allowed
(#4 ranked in the NFL)
7-1 record
1-1 in Postseason
(should’ve been a SB appearance)

42 tackles (pacing 84)
27 Solo (pacing 54)
9 TFL (pacing 18 TFL; 21.4% TFL rate)
14 QB hits (pacing 28 QB hits)
5 PD (pacing 10 Pass Def)
8.5 Sacks (pacing 17 Sacks and yes he did that in 8 contests)

This was bad iLB play?

Naw, in worked in 2014. The team pivoted and made it work. I think k the league didn’t really expect us to actually do it and it was magic in a bottle.

2015 was bad. I don’t k ow if his heart wasn’t in—different being a 1/2 season standin vs a full time starter, everyone else getting a bead on him, the parts around him being worse and trickling down…but I come back to having back to back weeks with 0 tackles. That should be impossible at ILB.

 

[OldSchool101]

Naw, in worked in 2014. The team pivoted and made it work. I think k the league didn’t really expect us to actually do it and it was magic in a bottle.

2015 was bad. I don’t k ow if his heart wasn’t in—different being a 1/2 season standin vs a full time starter, everyone else getting a bead on him, the parts around him being worse and trickling down…but I come back to having back to back weeks with 0 tackles. That should be impossible at ILB.

Ah but see that’s not accurate. Matthews recorded 1 TFL against Oakland. So that was a mistake also. You can’t record a TFL and have zero Tackles.
Against Oakland they ran 25 times (34.7%) and Carr passed 47 times (65.3%). Latavius Murray ran just 21 times for 3.71 per carry. That doesn’t sound our LB’s getting pummeled to me?

Randall took an INT to the house and it was 14-0 Packers to start.
30-20 somewhat easy victory. Oakland was in total desperation throwing the ball 65.3% 2:1 ratio.
Terrible game to judge a LB in Tackles across multiple seasons. Now Carr was running for his life after being Sacked 3 Times and throwing a pair of INT. Including a Pick6.
Carr finished 49.3% completion rate and had a 64% Passer rating. The guy was under constant duress all day.

In the Cardinals game you are referencing, Arizona only ran 24 times all day as it was a blowout loss for GB. Rodgers was Sacked 8 times. Total anomaly 38-8 score after Q3. The Arizona Defense scored 14 points. How many contests does our Offense offer 2 TD’s? Cmon that’s not a fair game to blame our Defense and certainly not 1 player. That game was not CM3’s fault. This was a total meltdown by our Offense. Probably not the best game to use to display an 24 game evaluation grade. You ride the derogatory CM3 wave and pick his lowest snap count (48) across 24 contests?? Is that a coincidence? Cmon that’s a totally unfair 24 game evaluation. Now the guy isn’t my favorite but he doesn’t deserve this being misrepresented either.



The argument that CM3 wss “really bad” was always a desperation “reach” with little to zero effort looking at the actual games imo.
I’m no expert. But this much I’m 100% positive sure of. You don’t play 24 straight games in the NFL with
22% TFL rate
15 Sacks (.625 Sacks per game)
33 QB hits
1 TFL per game (24) and get graded poorly. 1 TFL per game is basically leading the history of the NFL. Very few players record above 1.0+ TFL per contest.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/tackles_loss_career.htm

CM3 at ILB rose the ranks and held at #24 in history between Ndamukong Suh and Michael Strahan

 

[mradtke66]

Ah but see that’s not accurate. Matthews recorded 1 TFL against Oakland. So that was a mistake also. You can’t record a TFL and have zero Tackles.
Against Oakland they ran 25 times (34.7%) and Carr passed 47 times (65.3%). Latavius Murray ran just 21 times for 3.71 per carry. That doesn’t sound our LB’s getting pummeled to me?

Randall took an INT to the house and it was 14-0 Packers to start.
30-20 somewhat easy victory. Oakland was in total desperation throwing the ball 65.3% 2:1 ratio.
Terrible game to judge a LB in Tackles across multiple seasons. Now Carr was running for his life after being Sacked 3 Times and throwing a pair of INT. Including a Pick6.
Carr finished 49.3% completion rate and had a 64% Passer rating. The guy was under constant duress all day.

In the Cardinals game you are referencing, Arizona only ran 24 times all day as it was a blowout loss for GB. Rodgers was Sacked 8 times. Total anomaly 38-8 score after Q3. The Arizona Defense scored 14 points. How many contests does our Offense offer 2 TD’s? Cmon that’s not a fair game to blame our Defense and certainly not 1 player. That game was not CM3’s fault. This was a total meltdown by our Offense. Probably not the best game to use to display an 24 game evaluation grade. You ride the derogatory CM3 wave and pick his lowest snap count (48) across 24 contests?? Is that a coincidence? Cmon that’s a totally unfair 24 game evaluation. Now the guy isn’t my favorite but he doesn’t deserve this being misrepresented either.



The argument that CM3 wss “really bad” was always a desperation “reach” with little to zero effort looking at the actual games imo.
I’m no expert. But this much I’m 100% positive sure of. You don’t play 24 straight games in the NFL with
22% TFL rate
15 Sacks (.625 Sacks per game)
33 QB hits
1 TFL per game (24) and get graded poorly. 1 TFL per game is basically leading the history of the NFL. Very few players record above 1.0+ TFL per contest.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/tackles_loss_career.htm

CM3 at ILB rose the ranks and held at #24 in history between Ndamukong Suh and Michael Strahan

Im not saying our linebackers were getting pummeled, only that CM3 wasn’t well suited and didn’t play well. The TFL but 0 tackles, that’s funny and I hate the stat site here.

I also want to pick nits because you’re including his much better (statistically) 2014.

I’m basing a lot of my opinion on my memory of watching him play. He didn’t drop right. He took bad angles at times. He made it work due to his gifts, it oof. He very much looked like the EDGE out of position that he was.

And finally, some of those positive stats were when they put him back at OLB in dime, 3rd and long, and etc. I’d love to see the stats there, but I don’t know of a site out there (that is free) that has that level of breakdown. My vague recollection was he got to do so 10-20% of the time, but I fully admit I could be off.

 

[OldSchool101]

Im not saying our linebackers were getting pummeled, only that CM3 wasn’t well suited and didn’t play well. The TFL but 0 tackles, that’s funny and I hate the stat site here.

I also want to pick nits because you’re including his much better (statistically) 2014.

I’m basing a lot of my opinion on my memory of watching him play. He didn’t drop right. He took bad angles at times. He made it work due to his gifts, it oof. He very much looked like the EDGE out of position that he was.

And finally, some of those positive stats were when they put him back at OLB in dime, 3rd and long, and etc. I’d love to see the stats there, but I don’t know of a site out there (that is free) that has that level of breakdown. My vague recollection was he got to do so 10-20% of the time, but I fully admit I could be off.

Sure. It’s hard to break it down by every role he plays. The first thing you’ll notice right off the bat is we know 100% he played exclusively ILB in 2014 and it’s not a small sample. Yet he had 8.5 Sacks across 8 games.

So we can label him positionally or move him but the reality is you don’t pace 17 Sacks unless you’re still being used heavily as a Pass Rusher. For Clay to rack up 8.5 Sacks, 41 Tackles at what I’d call a Probowl alternate 22% TFL rate is nothing short of “highly productive”.

2015 wasn’t as exceptional as a wonderful 2014. Yet Clay was not bad. That’s just not true. Also taking 1 of 2 games out of context just displays an axe to grind. No player is ever judged on 1 sub par performance and you and I both know that. We similarly can’t take his best game and ignore his full body of work. We have to at minimum look at his 2014-2015 campaign to grade him. The guy didn’t even play ILB and he still was very effective

 

[OldSchool101]

The change for next season that I’d like to see most is a substantial interior DT that can move the pocket back. Right into the loving arms of Gary or Lukas or Parsons.
I might even consider bringing in a known FA and try to jeep it <=7.5Mil yearly. Then drafting another iDT by RD5 at latest. Then bouncing Stack as the odd man out.

My FA/Draft model will change shortly. As of now I’m ideally going like this if the chips fall perfectly.

IDT (FA outside purchase)

RD2 OC
RD3 CB
RD4 RB
RD5 TE quality blocking TE with some receiving prowess)
RD7 QB
RD7 PR
RD7 CB

 

[Heyjoe4]

"One of" doesn't isolate him down as the third greatest, at least I've never taken that as meaning that - noted though, and will try to not use that verbage as I do follow the mindset if one misunderstood you and said something, there is always others that also misunderstood and didnt' say a word.

I understand the point you were trying to make, but admit it was confusing at first. Anyway, thanks for the follow up. Probably everything we write is subject to interpretation.

Back to the original point, criticism of Hawk is misplaced IMO. There is always baggage that comes with being selected high in the draft, esp #5 overall. Expectations have nowhere to go but down.

Hawk was a consistently good ILB for I think nine years. He was pretty fast and a sure tackler. He may get confused at times with Martinez, who was also a very good tackler but not a standout anywhere else. For some reason I don't understand, I liked Hawk but never cared much for Martinez. They both made a ton of tackles, as expected. Hawk just had a better nose for the football.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Sacks are not the soul God-stat of defensive edge players. CMIII's best days were absolutely behind him at that stage - that doesn't mean he was bad.

Number of sacks gets more attention than it deserves IMO. Of course it's an important stat, and I hold a solid DE to 10 plus sacks a year as in terms of production. That's just one way to measure a DE. Even a guy like M Garret, with the record of 20 plus sacks, adds a lot more to the defense (as does Parsons) that isn't reflected n stats. 20 plus sacks just represents 20 plus snaps. There are a whole hell of a lot more snaps - and they are all important.

Just one example - how many incomplete passes or INTs are caused when a QB has to throw the ball too soon - or when the QB throws the ball too soon just fearing a sack?

 

[Heyjoe4]

I haven't read this whole thread, so forgive me if this has been asked and answered.

What are your opinions on keeping McManus, or rolling the dice with Havrisik? I think McManus should still be playing in the NFL, but the Packers are arguably in a SB window, and so missing two FGs and a PAT in a playoff game is unacceptable. (Well, it's always unacceptable. And McManus alone was not responsible for the loss to the Bears. Even so......)

So is it time to say goodbye to McManus and give the job to Havrisik, and find an UDFA for the PS?

I vote yes for Havrisik, just barely, and based on his production in limited action in GB. Curious to what everyone thinks. Thanks all!

 

[gopkrs]

I haven't read this whole thread, so forgive me if this has been asked and answered.

What are your opinions on keeping McManus, or rolling the dice with Havrisik? I think McManus should still be playing in the NFL, but the Packers are arguably in a SB window, and so missing two FGs and a PAT in a playoff game is unacceptable. (Well, it's always unacceptable. And McManus alone was not responsible for the loss to the Bears. Even so......)

So is it time to say goodbye to McManus and give the job to Havrisik, and find an UDFA for the PS?

I vote yes for Havrisik, just barely, and based on his production in limited action in GB. Curious to what everyone thinks. Thanks all!

It's a good question. I have no answer. McManus looks so on at times he just looks great. So I have to wonder if injuries are the problem. But he's a career 82 percenter I think, so are injuries a chronic thing with him? And pulling him down to 82? Maybe you can't believe him and so the coach has a tough time to make the call if he should play. Havrisik is an unknown for me. He made some very good kicks for us. If he can be consistent all through training camp; maybe he's the way to go. And the snapper. Is he the guy? That should be a position imho that the coach can and should be spot on. Both snapping and making a block.

 

[mradtke66]

Sure. It’s hard to break it down by every role he plays. The first thing you’ll notice right off the bat is we know 100% he played exclusively ILB in 2014 and it’s not a small sample. Yet he had 8.5 Sacks across 8 games.

So we can label him positionally or move him but the reality is you don’t pace 17 Sacks unless you’re still being used heavily as a Pass Rusher. For Clay to rack up 8.5 Sacks, 41 Tackles at what I’d call a Probowl alternate 22% TFL rate is nothing short of “highly productive”.

2015 wasn’t as exceptional as a wonderful 2014. Yet Clay was not bad. That’s just not true. Also taking 1 of 2 games out of context just displays an axe to grind. No player is ever judged on 1 sub par performance and you and I both know that. We similarly can’t take his best game and ignore his full body of work.

Ha. But I do like to argue.

He was a good pass rusher. That’s only part of the job of an ILB. You’re dropping into coverage 80% of the time. 2014 ended well because he wasn’t an agent of chaos. I legit wonder if he did as well as he did because he play unsoundly enough that he was wrong enough to confuse the other guys. What’s the line about the best swordsman not fearing the 2nd best, but rather the 100th?

He was still being situationally used as an Edge defender for the back half of 2014.

And I repeat, because I think it’s getting lost, the move in 2014 was necessary. It was a forced move based on injury and circumstance. I think the pro bowl nod was not falling flat on his face making the switch mid season and actually being successful.

2015 when he was the starter from training camp was less good. I have more or less always held this opinion. He had splash plays, he was too talented not to, but he could disappear.

This isn’t some crazy insult. He was better suited and more successful at Edge.

 

[OldSchool101]

Ha. But I do like to argue.

He was a good pass rusher. That’s only part of the job of an ILB. You’re dropping into coverage 80% of the time. 2014 ended well because he wasn’t an agent of chaos. I legit wonder if he did as well as he did because he play unsoundly enough that he was wrong enough to confuse the other guys. What’s the line about the best swordsman not fearing the 2nd best, but rather the 100th?

He was still being situationally used as an Edge defender for the back half of 2014.

And I repeat, because I think it’s getting lost, the move in 2014 was necessary. It was a forced move based on injury and circumstance. I think the pro bowl nod was not falling flat on his face making the switch mid season and actually being successful.

2015 when he was the starter from training camp was less good. I have more or less always held this opinion. He had splash plays, he was too talented not to, but he could disappear.

This isn’t some crazy insult. He was better suited and more successful at Edge.

That’s the thing. Each of us interpret a particular player differently. That’s fine I respect your opinion. It was very necessary and it was a load to handle Perry, peppers and Clay simultaneously. Also Clays 4.6 speed at 255lb made him rangy. It’s also likely his TFL were because he high % came downhill. He did have more than adequate Passes Defensed though in 2015 as noted. So that showed a competent Coverage guy.

I seem to recall a PED violation? Maybe I’m confusing that. It seemed his productivity dropped after he got caught. Might be confusing with another LB etc.. its been a minute.

Anyway on to 2026. I’m ok with Q but I’m really hoping we don’t overpay. He’s below average in coverage and often a step out of place. He is really good at Run anticipation. I’m confused what happened to Hopper though. There’s a reason they only sprinkle him.

 

[mradtke66]

That’s the thing. Each of us interpret a particular player differently. That’s fine I respect your opinion. It was very necessary and it was a load to handle Perry, peppers and Clay simultaneously. Also Clays 4.6 speed at 255lb made him rangy. It’s also likely his TFL were because he high % came downhill. He did have more than adequate Passes Defensed though in 2015 as noted. So that showed a competent Coverage guy.

I realized I wasn't saying this right, so sorry for beating this dead horse...

In 2015, he had good stats for an ILB. In an extreme example, if all of his sacks and TFLs happened when he was aligned as an OLB on 3rd and long, then I would not count those as evidence that he was a good ILB. Hopefully that makes more sense, and why I wish for more stats.

 

[OldSchool101]

I realized I wasn't saying this right, so sorry for beating this dead horse...

In 2015, he had good stats for an ILB. In an extreme example, if all of his sacks and TFLs happened when he was aligned as an OLB on 3rd and long, then I would not count those as evidence that he was a good ILB. Hopefully that makes more sense, and why I wish for more stats.

I hear ya. But I think you’re right. You’re beating it to a dead horse. Lol

We both know that Clay was playing a dual role there based on his QB hits and Sack count. Very few iLB post 8.5 sacks in 8 games. I’m convinced he was an OLB Wolf in ILB Sheep’s clothing. It kept him on that field and that’s what was important. I think I saw he played every contest 16/16 and his lowest snap count was Arizona 82%+.

Btw. The 2015 #12 in scoring Defense slightly outranked the 2014 Defense. Both the 2014 Defense and 2015 Defense played good enough to Contend at the NFC championship and Divisional level and lose both in OT.

Arizona Cardinals ran 19 times for 40 yards in our Divisional loss. The ILB didn’t seem to be the problem. The same Clay you pointed out for not making a tackle 2 weeks earlier dominated against Arizona and posted a team High 6 tackles (5 solo) and 1 TFL.

Clay Matthews was the leading component in a group allowing 2.1 per carry rushing.

 

[OldSchool101]

Had you picked on Clay in 2013, 2016,17,18,19. Ok I’m on board.
You picked the wrong seasons to say he was washed up. That is where I jumped off the Clay Jab train.
CM3 made the Probowl both 2014 and 2015 seasons. 27 Tackles for Loss and 17.5 Sacks in 28 contests starting after the Bye week conversion. Either that or I’m just imagining this stuff.