IMO it’s difficult to dispute that Raji takes plays off. McGinn who is tied into a lot of scouts and personnel people around the league has written they believe he ‘picks his spots’; and that agrees with the “eye test” too IMO. To me it’s a question of whether or not it’s due the number of snaps he as to “endure”. What is indisputable IMO is he has rare ability for a big man and is therefore, aside from elite QBs, the rarest of NFL players. Raji is 26 and will receive $4.49M this season.
Shields is 25 and a very good cover CB who improved his tackling last season. He’ll play for a $2.02M RFA tender this season.
Jones is 29 and played with more focus last season – by a significant amount IMO – than we’d ever seen previously. He’ll receive $3.15M this season including a roster bonus.
All three are good players the Packers would like to keep but what is the order of their value? I think answering three questions helps figure it out: 1. Which one is most easily replaced on the roster now? 2. What is their likely value in 2015 or 2016 if they’re extended? 3. How confident are you Thompson could draft their replacement?
1. My order of most easily replaced is Jones, Shields, Raji. The Packers are still deep at WR and this season Finley figures into the “WR” mix. Williams, House, and Hayward can be the three starters in the nickel but Shields may be better starting at CB than both Williams and House. There isn’t another Raji on the roster: Someone who can play NT well AND get pressure from NT or DE.
2. My order of likely value in the future is Shields, Raji and Jones. Jones is older by 4 and 3 years respectively. Shields over Raji just because of the number of snaps Raji plays will likely lead to injury or burn out. If that doesn’t happen, Raji over Shields.
3. This one is easy regarding Jones: Look at Thompson’s history drafting WRs. Shields is next based upon Thompson’s record and Raji is far behind: Finding motivated and talented big men is very difficult and I think it’s fair to say Thompson has been burned trying to find DL more than any other position.
So for me the order of value is Raji, Shields, and Jones. Jones is clearly the last of the three I would extend (and I like him a lot). It’s a closer call between the other two. Finding talented big men – particularly those over 320 lbs – is extremely difficult so I would slightly favor Raji. Money-wise I think it would take more to keep Raji and if they’re concerned he’d be even less consistently motivated, I’d understand it if they don’t extend him. Extensions often seem to be based somewhat on a players’ draft position (I think that’s nuts BTW) so the cost of Jones vs. Shields may be close, even though I think Shields is more valuable to the Packers.
Some unknowns that will figure in are: How demanding each will be; how motivated each will be upon signing an extension; and I haven’t looked into the cost of franchising one of them next season if the Packers would consider that option.