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Resign one of the 3?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by ivo610, May 2, 2013.

  1. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Finley is a great talent, and discussions about his drops aside, he doesn't produce like a Jimmy Graham when you talk about elite TEs. Finley has the talent to be one but plays like a good TE. I've heard all the arguments about how he can stretch the linebackers and defense in general, but I don't see it happening on a regular basis when I watch the games.

    IMO - we could let Finley go and get similar production out of other TEs while concentrating our resources on other positions of need.
     
  2. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Pray tell, what other Tight Ends??? Did you see Ryan Taylor on Sunday? Puleeeze the rest of our Tight ends are ordinary at best. We would have to draft one high if we let Finley go.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2013
  3. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Too early to tell. But based on what we've seen so far I think the likely order of priority is:

    Shields
    Jones
    Finley
    Raji

    I would surmise Shields and Jones represent good fits at a reasonable price tag. I'd guess Shields will not get any team's #1 cover corner money partly because draft status hangs over guys' heads in the second contract, whether that makes sense or not. In the past, Shields has always drawn the opponents' #2 wide out, which raises questions. He's drawing more #1's this year so the picture could change if he does well against them. I'll be particularly interested to see how he does against Alshon Jeffery, who just had a breakout game and is in his second year. Shields made him his little b*tch last season.

    I doubt Jones will get anybody's #1 receiver money. He's a situational player with a narrowly defined set of skills...he doesn't have game-breaking speed and he's iffy over the middle. He just doesn't fit anybody's profile of a stretch the field deep threat nor a 100 catch possession receiver. The general perception would be the TDs largely accrue to Rodgers. He's worth more to us than most other teams. And we don't have a 4th. receiver now who would take his place who has shown anything.

    Finley will probably ask for too much money and somebody just might pay him. Without knowing Finley's demands, I'd guess he'll be moving on. Unfortunately, the senior TEs in the 2014 draft class is a thin group if nfldraftscout.com is to be believed. That may be the biggest factor in Finley's favor.

    Raji...what's to say? The guy is again nearly invisible...he's just taking up space which we can say in his favor is most of the job. We might call him solid, but the guy doesn't make any plays. Pickett outplays him regularly. The Packers did grade him high last year, but is he really worth the money? They graded Wells high and made little attempt to keep him. Again, draft status counts in the second contract. Raji was a high pick...money continues to accrue to that status, whether anybody thinks that makes sense or not. Jolly has played well and has low mileage for his age with the 3 year hiatus; Daniels continues to progress; Worthy will be back; Pickett seems ageless and might be good for another year.

    Speaking of Pickett, because of his age he won't draw much interest in FA. We should be able to keep him on reasonable short term deal. If he finishes the year the way he started, he could be a valuable cheap re-sign.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2013
  4. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    Sam Shields - I wouldn't be shocked if he received an extension during this season. He is having another very strong season and should be a starter alongside Casey Hayward next year.

    James Jones - Jones didn't receive any offers three years ago when he was three years younger and I can't see him getting a big offer at the age of 30. As weird as it sounds, Jones should be a Packer for life. He rounds out the Packers Big 3 Receivers very nicely. Can I see another team offering him a big contract because teams throw around money? Yes. Do I see it happening? No.

    BJ Raji - He is a franchise tag candidate for sure. He's extremely valuable to the team.

    Finley - I have no idea. He's been a mystery since he was drafted and he's still a mystery. How can you possible put a price on him?

    The Packers strategy of not signing free-agents and overpaying for veterans should pay off. The money is there for these players to come back.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It might help to look at all the 2014 FAs:

    Shields
    Jones
    Finley
    Raji
    Pickett
    Jolly

    (It's interesting to note that all of the big men will be FAs, yet TT made drafting one a middling priority, despite Pickett's age and Jolly's uncertain prospects at the time. This would suggest Raji was a priority signing at the time. That might have changed. Or maybe the plan is to transition to the Texan's approach...a small, quick 3-4 front as perhaps suggested by the Datone Jones pick.)

    Neal
    EDS
    Jennings
    Starks
    Wilson
    Kuhn
    Lattimore (restricted)
    Quarless
    Wallace
     
  6. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Pickett had his career extended by moving back to NT, but that only buys us a few more years with him. Jolly also plays a hand in Raji's contract situation. Wilson may be gone as soon as Worthy gets back.
     
  7. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Jennings should be RFA as well and will receive some form of tender if that's the case, as will Lattimore.

    EDS will be back on a short term deal, and Neal seems to be playing his way to a new deal. Those two should be listed with those top guys.
     
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Correct, he is.
     
  9. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Heyward is a better fit at nickel back where he had an outstanding rookie year. His long speed is a liability at cover corner. His skills say he belongs in the middle of the field...short speed, vision, anticipation and a willingness to get physical.

    House is faster which is why they keep trying to put him out on the edge. He's looked promising except for one very bad preseason game from which he's still trying to recover. He's been hurt alot, so he hasn't gotten that much work, so I wouldn't yet grade down his upside.

    I think Williams is with us for awhile unless and until House proves up or some hot shot comes along out of the next draft class. Once Heyward is back, House might not see much of the field except maybe in dime. It might take an injury to see where he's at.
     
  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Neal played up to a new deal in this last game. We need to see a follow-up, especially with Matthews down. He needs to be our best edge rusher now, as much as I hate to say it.

    Yeah, EDS will probably be back because he'll be cheap. But in my opinion, if anybody thinks he looks good I'd suggest it's because Saturday was so bad in contrast. You hate to say stuff about a potential HOFer, but Saturday had nothing left in the tank for us...he couldn't get to the second level which is a kinda sorta minimum requirement of an NFL center, which was one reason (if not the main reason) our run game was so bad last season.

    EDS is adequate given what he'll be paid, but I wouldn't discount somebody beating him out. We may see Lang tried at center and Barkley at guard (his natural position) when Bulaga gets back. In any event, I think he'll be competing for his job with somebody.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2013
  11. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    I completely agree.

    Who knew the reason Neal was underachieving was because he was completely miscast? Had we done this a long time ago...

    "Adequate" might be a bit generous, I prefer "serviceable." He may be able to develop, But I'd prefer Barclay and Tretter start practicing snapping now. Many also saw Bakhtiari as a Center prospect, but I like him better at Tackle (needs more anchor). Barclay was born to play the interior. Tretter has the set to be an elite Center prospect, but only Time will tell. I didn't like keeping LJ and GVR over Robinson, but I can see why we chanced it. EDS may be "cheap" but if we don't make it a 2 year deal it's overpaying.
     
  12. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    I personally think this is Pickett's last season in the league. He's 34 years old, won a Super Bowl and made a ton of money in the league. Guys like Jones, Worthy, Daniels, Raji and Josh Boyd were all drafted to replace Pickett. I love watching him play, but I would wager that 2013 is his final season.
     
  13. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    I would tend to agree with you, but I could see Williams becoming a cap casualty if the Packers need the room. Heyward and Shields are the future of the position. I'm curious to see how House develops and how Williams' contract affects his standing with the team.
     
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Somebody needs to make the case for Heyward as a cover corner. His fine work last year was out of the nickel, more so in zone than man. His Combine 40 was nearly 4.6. We can't assume a fine nickel performance translates to cover corner success. Nickel corner skills have more in common with strong safeties than cover corners.
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    And yet Pickett takes nearly every snap in the base D and continues to stay healthy. I don't know his snap count, but it's probably in the 20's per game as base-only player, and has been for a few years. That's not a lot of wear and tear.

    Of the names you mentioned, only Raji and Boyd are NT types, and that assumes Boyd can put on more bulk. Raji has already been discusses as possibly a poor value given what others might offer him, and Boyd hasn't seen the field. Has he even been game day active yet?

    I don't know Pickett's personal view on the matter, but I've not heard him declare this is his last season. I have no reason to believe he won't want to play, and no reason to believe he doesn't have another good season in him.

    Then there's Jolly. We can keep both Pickett and Jolly for a lot less money than Raji by himself. I'd go with that pending what happens the rest of the season.
     
  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Neal...I would not draw any conclusions from one good game. You need to see him against a variety of teams / match-ups to see where he's at. Remember Walden's "breakout" Defensive Player of the Week game in 2011?

    Good point about Tretter...the Packers were planning to work him at center in camp.

    I suppose "serviceable" is small notch down from "adequate"...I'll agree with that for EDS.
     
  17. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Well if that doesn't bring you back to reality I don't know what will. Still, Neal has a nice string of performances thus far IMO
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    String? I'd call it one game...this last game.
     
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  19. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Outside of 1 game (Which is obviously not this last game) I've liked what I've seen from him.
     
  20. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    I agree with HRE about Heyward – he doesn’t have the speed to be a cover corner. His instincts make him extremely valuable in spite of that. For those hoping for or anticipating Williams’ departure IMO House is the best hope to take his spot. Another possibility with either a little, or a lot more experience at CB is James Nixon – he’s got decent size and is very fast (I’ve seen his 40 time out of college listed as low as 4.29). But he spent a lot of time in college at WR. (BTW, if he’s active we may see him returning kicks.) Or perhaps a rookie will surprise at CB next spring.

    IMO Hyde joins Heyward as not having enough speed for the outside. That, and my concern about Jennings and McMillian at safety, was why I was hoping Hyde would be tried at safety.

    If he can stay healthy and lives up to billing anything like Bakhtiari has, I see Tretter as the OC of the future. If he’s not ready I agree Lang could get a chance with Barclay moving to OG.

    Whether or not this is Pickett’s last season IMO guys like Jones, Worthy, and Daniels are too light to replace him. In order, my guess is only Raji (337 lbs), Jolly (325 lbs) and Boyd (310 lbs) would be looked at to replace Pickett (338 lbs). The next heaviest DL is CJ Wilson at 305 lbs and since he’s been inactive 2 of the first 4 games his roster spot may be in jeopardy next season. (All weight numbers are from the official roster … and therefor probably wrong.)
     
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  21. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    I don't agree with this at all. You can't opt to keep two tackles in their 30's over Raji, it doesn't make any sense. Jolly could stay on the team, but Raji is extremely valuable to the defense. You also have to check the number of times the Packers actually run a standard, base defense. Raji is a better pass rusher and more valuable in dime and nickle packages.
     
  22. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    Week 6 Defense (66 total plays)

    Defensive line: B.J. Raji 40, Mike Daniels 36, Johnny Jolly 23, Ryan Pickett 22


    Week 5 Defense (67 total plays)

    Defensive line: B.J. Raji 35, Mike Daniels 30, Datone Jones 23, Ryan Pickett 21


    Week 3 Defense (56 total snaps)

    Defensive line: B.J. Raji 32, Ryan Pickett 25, Mike Daniels 22, Johnny Jolly 18
     
  23. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    What doesn't make sense is overpaying a guy. There is nothing about Raji that is "extremely".
     
  24. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    He plays the most snaps on the defensive line each game and makes an impact. It's to considered "overpaying" if the guy makes an impact. Cletidus Hunt was overpaying for a lineman. Vonnie Holiday was overpaying for a lineman. Raji should be properly compensated for the role he plays on defense.
     
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  25. Bensalama21

    Bensalama21 Ben

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    His Raji Freestyle dance is extreme :)
     
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