RAS Comparisons

[Dantés]

With the combine around the corner, we are about to have an abundance of athletic testing data. To understand how much that matters, it's helpful to compare results with current NFL players. The RAS website does some of this, but I wanted to be more specific. So the point is to take positions, look at the best players at their position, and see what their testing was like when they were coming out of college.

 

[Dantés]

Tight End:

-T. Kelce: 9.27
-G. Kittle: 9.49
-D. Waller: 9.05
-M. Andrews: 7.26
-K. Pitts: 9.64
-D. Goedert: 9.48
-D. Schultz: 7.11
-T. Hockenson: 9.18
-H. Henry: 6.30
-M. Gesicki: 9.95
-Z. Ertz: 6.36
-J. Witten: 9.62
-D. Walker: 7.22
-G. Olsen: 9.47
-K. Rudolph: 7.74
-D. Njoku: 9.32
-T. Eifert: 9.06

The sample includes 17 names. 11 of them scored 9+ (65%). Only 2 were below 7.00 and 6.30 was the low number (12%).

The average is 8.5, which is ironic since no one actually landed in the 8's.

What this suggests is that, despite the sense the TE is a toughness/effort position, RAS scores correlate heavily with success. If a guy is under 6.00, the numbers would predict that he won't become a great player. And if he's under 9.00, his odds are much lower than those above 9.00.

Keep that in mind as the TE numbers come rolling in.

 

[Dantés]

Offensive Tackle:

-D. Bakhtiari: 6.72
-B. Bulaga: 7.33
-D. Dawkins: 8.8
-P. Sewell: 8.98
-T. Decker: 7.19
-B. O'Neill: 9.60
-R. Stanley: 6.02
-O. Brown: 0.72
-L. Collins: 7.11
-J. Wills: 8.44
-T. Smith: 9.68
-A. Thomas: 8.11
-L. Johnson: 9.96
-T. Armstead: 9.59
-T. Brown: 3.69
-B. Smith: 9.72
-T. Lewan: 10.0
-J. Matthews: 9.51
-T. Moton: 8.46
-T. Wirfs: 9.71
-G. Bolles: 9.17
-K. Miller: 9.99
-R. Slater: 9.71
-D. Humphries: 7.74
-T. Williams: 9.64

There's a sample of 25 players. 12 are above 9.0, another 5 are above 8.0, and another 4 above 7.00. So only 16% of the sample were below 7.00.

There are two low score outliers-- Orlando Brown at 0.72 and Trenton Brown at 3.69. This makes sense, as both players are gargantuan specimens who win with size/length more than athleticism.

Otherwise, the low score is 6.02 and the average overall is 8.22 (8.75 without the two outliers).

The numbers suggest that high end athleticism (9+) isn't quite as important as at TE, but still correlates with success. Maybe the more important observation is that sub 7.00 scorers are unlikely to become great starting tackles. However, we should keep in minds that RAS scores aren't as meaningful with size outliers (e.g. Dawand Jones).

Again, keep this in mind as the combine results come in.

 

[tynimiller]

Can we move this to the draft section for sake of finding quicker.

I concur with you and did a similar exercise at TE earlier this year as well.

Folks that don’t believe RAS is a strong indicator (not a guarantee) are fooling themselves.

 

[Schultz]

Tight End:

-T. Kelce: 9.27
-G. Kittle: 9.49
-D. Waller: 9.05
-M. Andrews: 7.26
-K. Pitts: 9.64
-D. Goedert: 9.48
-D. Schultz: 7.11
-T. Hockenson: 9.18
-H. Henry: 6.30
-M. Gesicki: 9.95
-Z. Ertz: 6.36
-J. Witten: 9.62
-D. Walker: 7.22
-G. Olsen: 9.47
-K. Rudolph: 7.74
-D. Njoku: 9.32
-T. Eifert: 9.06

The sample includes 17 names. 11 of them scored 9+ (65%). Only 2 were below 7.00 and 6.30 was the low number (12%).

The average is 8.5, which is ironic since no one actually landed in the 8's.

What this suggests is that, despite the sense the TE is a toughness/effort position, RAS scores correlate heavily with success. If a guy is under 6.00, the numbers would predict that he won't become a great player. And if he's under 9.00, his odds are much lower than those above 9.00.

Keep that in mind as the TE numbers come rolling in.

Just wondering. You say you took the best players. Who decided who were the best players? Are these the best receiving TEs? Are they the best overall, receiving and blocking combined? Thanks for the work you put into this.

 

[Dantés]

Wide Receiver:

-D. Adams: 6.54
-J. Jefferson: 9.69
-A. Thielen: 7.52
-A. St. Brown: 7.14
-D. Johnson: 4.21
-T. Higgins: 4.16
-J. Chase: 9.81
-A. Cooper: 8.56
-S. Diggs: 5.65
-T. Hill: 9.39
-G. Wilson: 7.7
-C. Lamb: 7.45
-A. Brown: 7.14
-T. McLaurin: 9.57
-B. Cooks: 9.14
-M. Pittman: 8.24
-C. Kirk: 6.25
-D. Moore: 9.65
-C. Olave: 8.65
-M. Thomas: 9.12
-M. Evans: 6.98
-C. Godwin: 9.66
-C. Sutton: 9.89
-D. Hopkins: 4.94
-B. Aiyuk: 8.46
-D. Samuel: 7.92
-C. Kupp: 5.00
-T. Lockett: 7.7
-D. Metcalf: 9.6
-A. Brown: 8.6

So there is a 30 player sample.

9.0+: 10 (33%)
8.0+: 15 (50%)
7.0+: 22 (73%)
Sub 7.0: 8 (27%)
Sub 6.0: 4 (13%)

The average is 7.81.

The lower end guys:

-Davante Adams
-Diontae Johnson
-Tee Higgins
-Stefon Diggs
-Christian Kirk
-Mike Evans
-Deandre Hopkins
-Cooper Kupp

Here's my read on these guys: they are, by and large, ball winners (e.g. Evans), route/release technicians (e.g. Adams, Diggs, Johnson, Kupp), or both (e.g. Hopkins, Higgins).

So in other words, RAS scores correlate with success here but not as strongly as at TE or OT. And if you're drafting a lower end guy, you probably want to make sure that they are very savvy route runners or physically imposing ball winners. Drafting guys sub 6.00 CAN work, but it's highly risky.

 

[Dantés]

Just wondering. You say you took the best players. Who decided who were the best players? Are these the best receiving TEs? Are they the best overall, receiving and blocking combined? Thanks for the work you put into this.

Me! I did.

I chose the guys that, according to my judgment, I would be content with if my team got a similar player in round 1.

That said, if there are names to add or subtract, throw them out there. Some names I wanted to include but regrettably couldn't because there is no RAS date for them (e.g. Gronkowski and Freiermuth).

 

[Dantés]

Can we move this to the draft section for sake of finding quicker.

I concur with you and did a similar exercise at TE earlier this year as well.

Folks that don’t believe RAS is a strong indicator (not a guarantee) are fooling themselves.

I would add this, knowing you agree.

The best way to use RAS is not usually to just draft all the highest scores. Rather it's best used to eliminate the guys that, statistically, have a super low chance of success. If you love a TE on tape, but he tests at a 4.5, history says that his chances of becoming a great player are tiny. If you strike him from your board or from your cluster for a particular round, you're avoiding what is probably a trap.

And if you eliminate all the sub-standard RAS results, you leave yourself with a pool of players that is just more likely to hit. I don't know the exact numbers, but if the average 1st rounder succeeds 50% of the time, then eliminating sub-standard RAS guys probably leaves you with a pool that will succeed, maybe, 62% of the time or something like that. So it just improves your odds.

 

[OldSchool101]

Good stuff, I’ll be watching the scores come across. Especially at TE.

I think Christian Watson is another good recent example at WR. Basically a 10.0 RAS and does very little for 1/3 season. Then in the middle 1/3 season, He just explodes in that Rookie class. Leading all Rookies in TD’s, even though he barely contributed early on.

 

[tynimiller]

Good stuff, I’ll be watching the scores come across. Especially at TE.

I think Christian Watson is another good recent example at WR. Basically a 10.0 RAS and does very little for 1/3 season. Then in the middle 1/3 season, He just explodes in that Rookie class. Leading all Rookies in TD’s, even though he barely contributed early on.

I'd love to add the Christian Watson 2023...which is Andrei Iosivas...he should flirt or run sub 4.3

 

[Schultz]

Me! I did.

I chose the guys that, according to my judgment, I would be content with if my team got a similar player in round 1.

That said, if there are names to add or subtract, throw them out there. Some names I wanted to include but regrettably couldn't because there is no RAS date for them (e.g. Gronkowski and Freiermuth).

You only answered part of my question and not the important part.

 

[OldSchool101]

You only answered part of my question and not the important part.

What is this the Gestapo?

My apologies Commodore Schultz!
Vee Vill not let it happen again!

 

[tynimiller]

What is this the Gestapo?

My apologies Commodore Schultz!
Vee Vill not let it happen again!

Dude Hogans Heroes is one of my favorites!

 

[Dantés]

You only answered part of my question and not the important part.

They are the tight ends that I think are performing or have performed in the past so as to be worthy of a 1st round pick. That's my answer. That favors receiving because that's the more valuable skillset. Though in a tight end, true combination ability is what's most valuable because of the ability that it gives the offense to disguise. That's why I think Gronkowski is the best TE of all time-- he could caught a 40 yard touchdown and put a 43DE in the first on successive plays. That's also why I think a healthy George Kittle is the most valuable TE in the game today.

But I would not ever consider a pure blocking TE to be worth a 1st round pick, no matter how good. For example, Marcedes Lewis of two years ago was as good as it gets as a blocking Y and he caught 10/107/3. That is not worth a 1st round pick because you can find it on the open market for 1-5M AAV. Same could be said about guys like Lee Smith, Chris Manhertz, Eric Tomlinson, Geoff Swaim, and the like-- they are good at what they do, but what they do will never merit a round 1 selection.

 

[Schultz]

Thanks for the well thought out answer While I disagree that most of the guys you listed are worth 1st round picks, I see them as Day 2 picks and would be happy if GB got a quality TE regardless of RAS score on Day 2.
Old school- it is Sergeant Schultz. When trying to be funny it helps (not always) to be accurate.

 

[Dantés]

Edge Players:

-Rashan Gary: 9.95
-Preston Smith: 9.8
-Danielle Hunter: 9.89
-Za'Darius Smith: 3.75
-Khalil Mack: 9.31
-T.J. Watt: 9.92
-Jason Pierre-Paul: 6.61
-Justin Houston: 9.26
-Trey Hendrickson: 9.53
-Myles Garrett: 9.99
-Von Miller: 9.97
-Matthew Judon: 6.98
-Carl Lawson: 6.16
-Demarcus Lawrence: 5.14
-Micah Parsons: 9.59
-Brandon Graham: 7.55
-Haason Red****: 9.08
-Montez Sweat: 9.88
-Jerry Hughes: 8.79
-Brian Burns: 9.90
-Cameron Jordan: 8.86
-Chandler Jones: 8.30
-Maxx Crosby: 9.64
-Joey Bosa: 8.90
-Nick Bosa: 9.44
-Leonard Floyd: 9.81
-Robert Quinn: 8.08

There's a 27 player sample.

9.0+: 16 (57%)
8.0+: 21 (75%)
7.0+: 22 (79%)
Sub 7.0: 5 (18%)
Sub 6.0: 2 (3%)

Average: 8.67

I consider edge to be THE position where RAS matters more than any other. If you are not at least a "good" athlete by NFL standards, the odds that you will become a great pass rusher are minimal. And even then, there is a heavy lean towards being a "great" athlete, by which I mean 8.0+.

If a guy is healthy, he tests fully, and is sub 7.00, you can't draft him in round 1. I don't care what his film says. You're trying to thread a needle.

 

[thequick12]

I'd love to add the Christian Watson 2023...which is Andrei Iosivas...he should flirt or run sub 4.3

I keep taking him with pick #116...be pretty cool to have borh those guys

 

[OldSchool101]

Edge, Adetomiwa Adebawore from Northwestern is someone I’d be watching very closely.
Benches 30 reps,
Squats 685lb
6.9 3-Cone
125” Broad
37.5 Vertical
Clocked right at 5.04 in 40 time at 6’1 1/2” X 282lb, but more explosive than fast. Although his 5-10 yard burst is surprisingly quick.
He needs some pass rush refinement and work in fundamentals, but his athletic traits give him a medium floor and nice ceiling. He reminds me of a young turbo’d Mike Daniels

While it’s not an immediate need, he could be a guy we take a 4-5th round flier on.

 

[tynimiller]

Edge, Adetomiwa Adebawore from Northwestern is someone I’d be watching very closely.
Benches 30 reps,
Squats 685lb
6.9 3-Cone
125” Broad
37.5 Vertical
Clocked right at 5.04 in 40 time at 6’1 1/2” X 282lb, but more explosive than fast. Although his 5-10 yard burst is surprisingly quick.
He needs some pass rush refinement and work in fundamentals, but his athletic traits give him a medium floor and nice ceiling. He reminds me of a young turbo’d Mike Daniels

While it’s not an immediate need, he could be a guy we take a 4-5th round flier on.

Hang on...where are you getting these numbers? Reported workout times? Official combine or pro days haven't happened for him?

Ade is a beast, and I have a solid 3rd round at worst expectation personally. I could see a draft where he goes last ten picks of the second honestly before slipping to the fourth. If he is there in the 4th I'd 100% classify that a steal like our Tom pick last year when we nabbed him.

 

[Dantés]

Safety:

-Adrian Amos: 8.62
-Harrison Smith: 9.09
-Minkah Fitzpatrick: 8.48
-John Johnson: 7.92
-Jessie Bates: 7.18
-Marcus Williams: 8.15
-Micah Hyde: 4.73
-Jordan Poyer: 5.32
-Devin McCourty: 8.54
-C.J. Gardner-Johnson: 7.86
-Kamren Curl: 7.41
-Kevin Byard: 7.84
-Marcus Maye: 6.04
-Justin Simmons: 9.38
-Justin Reid: 9.65
-Derwin James: 9.32
-Budda Baker: 5.43
-Talanoa Hufanga: 7.06

18 players.

9.0+: 4 (22%)
8.0+: 8 (44%)
7.0+: 14 (78%)
Sub 7.0: 4 (22%)
Sub 6.0: 3 (17%)

Average: 7.67

This is a position with fewer elite athletes-- likely because the better athletes with this body type land more often at CB or WR. However, the lesson is similar-- if you aren't above 7.00, the odds that you're going to be a good player go way down.

 

[Dantés]

Cornerback:

-Jaire Alexander: 9.54
-Patrick Peterson: 9.93
-Marlon Humphrey: 9.54
-Marcus Peters: 7.22
-Chidobe Awuzie: 9.64
-Tre'Davious White: 6.47
-Xavien Howard: 4.26
-Byron Jones: 9.90
-Adoree' Jackson: 8.78
-James Bradberry: 9.17
-Darius Slay: 8.76
-Desmond King: 6.60
-Stephon Gilmore: 9.74
-Kristian Fulton: 7.92
-A.J. Terrell: 9.55
-Marshon Lattimore: 10.00
-Jamel Dean: 9.93
-Carlton Davis: 6.37
-Patrick Surtain: 9.97
-Jalen Ramsey: 9.84

20 Players:

9.0+: 12 (60%)
8.0+: 14 (70%)
7.0+: 16 (80%)
Sub 7.00: 4 (20%)
Sub 6.00: 1 (5%)

Average: 8.66

 

[tynimiller]

Cornerback:

-Jaire Alexander: 9.54
-Patrick Peterson: 9.93
-Marlon Humphrey: 9.54
-Marcus Peters: 7.22
-Chidobe Awuzie: 9.64
-Tre'Davious White: 6.47
-Xavien Howard: 4.26
-Byron Jones: 9.90
-Adoree' Jackson: 8.78
-James Bradberry: 9.17
-Darius Slay: 8.76
-Desmond King: 6.60
-Stephon Gilmore: 9.74
-Kristian Fulton: 7.92
-A.J. Terrell: 9.55
-Marshon Lattimore: 10.00
-Jamel Dean: 9.93
-Carlton Davis: 6.37
-Patrick Surtain: 9.97
-Jalen Ramsey: 9.84

20 Players:

9.0+: 12 (60%)
8.0+: 14 (70%)
7.0+: 16 (80%)
Sub 7.00: 4 (20%)
Sub 6.00: 1 (5%)

Average: 8.66

Yup, CB is one of those positions that it is a stronger indicator on. Crazy honestly

 

[Dantés]

Running Back:

-Aaron Jones: 9.21
-Dalvin Cook: 4.66
-Joe Mixon: 9.46
-Nick Chubb: 9.16
-Kareem Hunt: 5.16
-Breece Hall: 9.96
-Rhamondre Stevenson: 4.02
-Ezekiel Elliott: 8.66
-Tony Pollard: 7.59
-Saquon Barkley: 9.97
-Jonathan Taylor: 9.51
-Derrick Henry: 8.78
-Christian McCaffrey: 8.52
-Alvin Kamara: 8.08
-Javonte Williams: 8.79
-Josh Jacobs: 5.72
-Kenneth Walker: 9.26

17 player sample.

9.0+: 7 (41%)
8.0+: 12 (71%)
7.0+: 13 (76%)
Sub 7.0: 4 (24%)
Sub 6.0: 4 (24%)

Average: 8.03

 

[Dantés]

Interior OL:

-Elgton Jenkins: 9.34
-Frank Ragnow: 9.93
-Ezra Cleveland: 9.92
-Kevin Zeitler: 7.66
-Joel Bitonio: 9.72
-Wyatt Teller: 8.79
-Rodger Saffold: 8.61
-Mitch Morse: 9.54
-David Andrews: 7.07
-Alijah Vera-Tucker: 9.80
-Zack Martin: 9.10
-Jason Kelce: 9.50
-Andrew Norwell: 4.68
-Quenton Nelson: 9.67
-Ryan Kelly: 9.54
-Brandon Scherff: 9.78
-Chris Lindstrom: 9.85
-Ryan Jensen: 7.16
-Shaq Mason: 9.17
-Quinn Meinerz: 9.98
-Joe Thuney: 9.85
-Creed Humphrey: 10.00
-Corey Linsley: 9.19
-Rodney Hudson: 1.33
-Gabe Jackson: 5.04

There's 25 guys there.

9.0+: 17 (68%)
8.0+: 19 (76%)
7.0+: 22 (88%)
Sub 7.00: 3 (12%)

Average: 8.57

 

[OldSchool101]

Hang on...where are you getting these numbers? Reported workout times? Official combine or pro days haven't happened for him?

Ade is a beast, and I have a solid 3rd round at worst expectation personally. I could see a draft where he goes last ten picks of the second honestly before slipping to the fourth. If he is there in the 4th I'd 100% classify that a steal like our Tom pick last year when we nabbed him.

NFLdraftbuzz.
Although I misrepresented his 40 time was 4.59. His shuttle was 4.05 pro shuttle. Made Bruce Feldman’s Freaks list