A Case for Chop Robinson

[Dantés]

After paying Rashan Gary, drafting Lukas Van Ness, and keeping Preston Smith, spending pick #25 on an edge rusher is probably not on most Packer fans' radar. However, one of my favorite realistic draft options this season is Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson. I want to make the case for him.

Need: I think the need for a player like him is great than what we might perceive. For starters, Preston Smith is 32 this season and they will be able to get out of his contract after this season if they wish to. Secondly, Enagbare tore his ACL in the play-offs and could easily miss the entire season. But thirdly, and most important to me, Robinson is a different type of rusher than they have on the roster. Just as a team might be set with vertical receivers, but lack an underneath option, so this DE group has very good/viable three down players, but no true sack artist speed rushers. Robinson is that type of defensive end and there aren't many in this class.

Value: Over the last 20 years, the nerds have been arguing for the value of pressure that doesn't result in sacks. It's true that pressure is valuable (hurries, knockdowns, etc.). But sacks are still exponentially more valuable that any other form of QB pressure. Teams score on less than 25% of the drives in which a sack occurs. EPA (expected points added) on dropbacks with pressure is around -0.4; EPA on dropbacks that result in sacks is around -2.0. This is why smart teams are willing to invest in sack-getters even if they can't play on every down. Saleh's Jets drafted Will McDonald. The Eagles invested heavily in Haason Red**** and now Bryce Huff. If all of your pass rushers win by playing through the opponent, you're going to be limited in sack production because those typically aren't fast wins. Robinson has the skills to win in a hurry.

Athletic Profile: When you add Robinson's reported 6.98 3 cone from his pro day to his combine numbers, you're talking about a 9.74 RAS. The indicators of explosiveness are really strong, confirming what he shows on film. His 1.53 split is 99.4% and his 10'8" broad jump is 98.5%. I tried to find the comps of DE athletes who were over 250#, ran under 4.50, and had a sub 7.0 second three cone. There aren't any. I fully believe modern prospects are out-performing past generations in part because they have learned how to train specifically for these drills. But even if you allow for that, Robinson is a rare athlete who has proven via testing what everyone believed they were seeing on the field-- namely elite explosion and speed.

So why would he even be there at #25? Because he is unrefined and lacks production. He only has 17.5 TFL and 9.5 sacks over the last two seasons combined. He's also probably not a 3 down player as a rookie. Those are the reasons he could potentially fall to Green Bay. But in my opinion, the issues are coachable. He's only 3 seasons out of high school and just 21 years old. There's a lot more meat on the pork chop here. And if he only ever becomes a ~60% snap guy but who accrues 10-15 sacks on an average season, he's absolutely worth the pick. In fact, it would be a homerun.

So that's my case. I think Robinson should be on their short list of guys to take at #25 with the likes of Graham Barton or Kool-Aid McKinstry.

 

[sschind]

If Gute thinks this guy is the guy I'd have no problem with taking him. IMO you can never have enough talent at any position. I see enough good things about Robinson to be comfortable with the pick. The good thing about the Packers situation is they have the flexibility to take whichever player Gute thinks is the best for the Packers. I'm confident he will make a good choice and pretty much nothing will surprise me.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Dantes, sounds you think it would be a risk to trade back and still hope to get him in the early 2nd?

 

[AmishMafia]

I have a comp for you - Micah Parsons. Parsons is a bit faster (40), but Chop is quicker (10 yd) and change of direction (shuttle) while being about 10 lbs heavier.

Which makes me wonder about him playing LB. He has TRex arms - but so does Micah.

I can see him being a fun piece for Hafley to move around and cause some havoc. A lot to work with there.

 

[Dantés]

Dantes, sounds you think it would be a risk to trade back and still hope to get him in the early 2nd?

I assume but you never know.

 

[gopkrs]

That's why I have no idea who we'll draft at 25. There are a couple of positions that will probably be available with good players. I'm hoping to go interior line if one of the 2 or 3 are there, or one of the tackles that will be good at interior. But if a pass rusher is there? Or DeJean or a CB? The only way I could see trading down is if there are a fistful of players on our board still, and we don't trade down very far. But then that won't net us much and I really don't believe a 6th round pick would be worth it when we can take the player we want.

 

[Dantés]

That's why I have no idea who we'll draft at 25. There are a couple of positions that will probably be available with good players. I'm hoping to go interior line if one of the 2 or 3 are there, or one of the tackles that will be good at interior. But if a pass rusher is there? Or DeJean or a CB? The only way I could see trading down is if there are a fistful of players on our board still, and we don't trade down very far. But then that won't net us much and I really don't believe a 6th round pick would be worth it when we can take the player we want.

What makes it a mystery to me personally is this:

The most obvious needs are either lower value positions, positions that lack a lot of high end talent at the top of the draft, or both.

They need a SS, but there isn’t one worth the 25th pick.

They need a LB, but unless they are really high on a particular player, there isn’t a fit there either.

They need to add to the interior of the line, but that isn’t a position they tend to draft in round 1.

They need a tackle, but the types of players they tend to like at tackle are in short supply in round one.

 

[DoURant]

I'm really leaning towards secondary, namely CB in the 1st. I just feel with Hafley being a secondary guy, that getting him a player in his first season that fits his "specialty" is a logical choice. EDGE and OL are my 2nd and 3rd choices, Enagbare's injury puts EDGE in my top 3, and OL they really need 3 picks in this draft. That being said, I think Gute is going to throw a curveball at us, that will will make us scratch our heads and say " of course, why didn't I think of that".

 

[Thirteen Below]

I'm really leaning towards secondary, namely CB in the 1st. I just feel with Hafley being a secondary guy, that getting him a player in his first season that fits his "specialty" is a logical choice. EDGE and OL are my 2nd and 3rd choices, Enagbare's injury puts EDGE in my top 3, and OL they really need 3 picks in this draft.

Can't argue with the logic of that, but I've listened to a lot podcssts and interviews with him, and one thing thatg seems consistent for him is that he believes the whole defense starts at the line of scrimmage. His feeling is that in order for the secondary to do their whole "defensive back" thing, the quarterback needs to be forced into making decisions he doesn't want to have to make faster than he wants to have to make them. Sounds like he prioritizes pressuring the QB - make him throw a pass he was hoping he wasn't going to have to make, because that's how mistakes happen and mistakes are what you want the other team to make as often as possible.

I really think that now that Hafley has McKinney, Chop Robinson is probably at the top of his Christmas list. I'm not necessarily saying Gute is going to agree, or go along with it, but I do think Hafley would prefer an explosive, penetrating edge demon.

But then again, that is largely based on another opinion of mine - that Gute is going to trawl one more safety out of the free agent pool before the off-season is over.

That being said, I think Gute is going to throw a curveball at us, that will will make us scratch our heads and say " of course, why didn't I think of that".

But then, of course.... yeah. There is that.

So who knows. He could very well do something out of a clear blue sky, and make every single one of us look foolish. In fact, that's probably the more likely possibility. And if (and when) he does, OK - I'll be fine. I'm convinced the man has a plan in mind, and whatever it is, I trust it. Because he knows how to do his job 100 times better than I know how it should be done.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's why I have no idea who we'll draft at 25. There are a couple of positions that will probably be available with good players. I'm hoping to go interior line if one of the 2 or 3 are there, or one of the tackles that will be good at interior. But if a pass rusher is there? Or DeJean or a CB? The only way I could see trading down is if there are a fistful of players on our board still, and we don't trade down very far. But then that won't net us much and I really don't believe a 6th round pick would be worth it when we can take the player we want.

Agreed. This might be a good year for Gluten to trade up. There are about four CBs who are likely to be gone by #25, and the talent really drops off from there. The secondary, even with the addition of McKinney is average so my guess is that will be the first pick.

I've seen some mocks where Cooper DeJean falls to #25, and he's the guy I hope they get. And then I read an article suggesting the Packers would have to trade up to #15 to get him. I think if Gluten can get inside #20 pick he can pick up a good CB, maybe DeJean. I like DeJean because he's so athletic and could play CB or S.

Dantes makes a pretty good case for Chop Robinson, and ya gotta love the guy's name. I'd be fine with that pick if the CBs are gone. The other alternative is to draft a T or iOL at #25. That's fine as well but they can probably get what they need in the 2nd round.

It's just not a very exciting draft. A lot of WR talent and OL talent. I'd be very surprised to see a WR taken at #25.

 

[OldSchool101]

Oh yeah. I think he fits that same profile as we like at Edge. High ceiling, medium-high floor.. gambling on development a little bit there. He does need some pass rush move refinement, but that’s not that uncommon for a Rookie and I almost view that as a positive. I’ve seen several scouts use Micah Parsons comparison (but Chop being less refined). Just the mere fact they mention Parsons ought to tell us something.
Preston, Gary, Lukas, Chop and eventually Enagbare? That’s about as deep a pass rush group as I’ve ever seen in GB.
I think Hafley could bring him into sub packages along with Rashan and Preston in a 5 man rush scenarios. No way do you block Clark, Wyatt/Brooks, Gary, Preston and Chop all simultaneously. You’d have 1.75 sec to throw.

Then grab Junior or Edgerrin to pair with Quay? Someone on their Offense is eventually getting hurt!

 

[Thirteen Below]

Agreed. This might be a good year for Gluten to trade up. There are about four CBs who are likely to be gone by #25, and the talent really drops off from there. The secondary, even with the addition of McKinney is average so my guess is that will be the first pick.

I've seen some mocks where Cooper DeJean falls to #25, and he's the guy I hope they get. And then I read an article suggesting the Packers would have to trade up to #15 to get him. I think if Gluten can get inside #20 pick he can pick up a good CB, maybe DeJean. I like DeJean because he's so athletic and could play CB or S.

Using the Drafttek trade value chart, #25 and #88 get us #14 or #15 if either New Orleans or Indianapolis want an extra 2nd rounder.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Using the Drafttek trade value chart, #25 and #88 get us #14 or #15 if either New Orleans or Indianapolis want an extra 2nd rounder.

Interesting, thanks 13. I thought it would have taken more to move up 10 spots. I wouldn't be surprised if he moves up. Not a lot of good alternatives at position of need, and CB certainly fits the bill. The article I read said that at #15 they were likely to take DeJean. That would be a solid addition, along with McKinney, to the secondary. I think Stokes is all but done, and don't really expect JA to be resigned.

 

[tynimiller]

What makes it a mystery to me personally is this:

The most obvious needs are either lower value positions, positions that lack a lot of high end talent at the top of the draft, or both.

They need a SS, but there isn’t one worth the 25th pick.

They need a LB, but unless they are really high on a particular player, there isn’t a fit there either.

They need to add to the interior of the line, but that isn’t a position they tend to draft in round 1.

They need a tackle, but the types of players they tend to like at tackle are in short supply in round one.

THIS 100%


I don't need anyone to win me over on a Chop Robinson pick or even a Darius Robinson pick. High value position, provides insurance to a second year LVN and injured Kingsley while also providing a different end piece that really isn't like any we have.

Everything you've said and many of us have observed lead me to strongly think we are heading to a trade up, trade back or a CB/Edge pick - two of the most high positional value spots that would receive instant playing time (a true outside corner could easily start by bye week honestly in GB).

 

[El Guapo]

The longer you can let a top player sit on the bench, learning the scheme and the speed of the game, the better that player should be in the end. Therefore I am fine with drafting BPA even if it's at a position of strength. If a Aaron Rodgers happened and Marvin Harrison Jr was available for the Packers, I sure would hope that we would pick him too!

 

[Thirteen Below]

Interesting, thanks 13. I thought it would have taken more to move up 10 spots. I wouldn't be surprised if he moves up. Not a lot of good alternatives at position of need, and CB certainly fits the bill. The article I read said that at #15 they were likely to take DeJean. That would be a solid addition, along with McKinney, to the secondary.

I'm a little surprised, too. There are a few charts out there, but supposedly the Draftek version is the one NFL teams put the most stock in. Here it is, if you want to check it out...

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

I keep reminding myself, this year we're probably going to see a completely new version of Gtekunst. For the first time, he's going to be all-in on the Super Bowl, and probably make some much bolder decisions than we're used to seeing him make. We have more draft capital this year than 29 of the 31 other teams, and if ever he's going to make a splashy deal, this would probably be the year. If there's someone he really feels is "the" piece we need, I can see him making the move.

I think Stokes is all but done, and don't really expect JA to be resigned.

This is a crucisl year for Jaire, which is one reason I think we'll go CB fairly early and more than once. He needs to be on the field. If he's unable to stay healthy, I don't see Gutekunst breaking the bank to extend him in 26 - or possibly even keep him around at all.

A lot of people were suggesting a few months ago that we trade him or even release him, but the dead cap was over $27,000,000 and it was arguably a year too early to give up on him anyway. But another year like last one, and it won't be too early at all. His 2026 salary is nearly $28,000,000, and his dead cap is down to $10.7M. Cap management is going to start getting a lot tougher in 26, and the $17M that we'd save would make things a lot easier. Plus, he'd have some significant trade value with a full year left on his contract.

 

[PikeBadger]

Using the Drafttek trade value chart, #25 and #88 get us #14 or #15 if either New Orleans or Indianapolis want an extra 2nd rounder.

I think you're going to be more accurate by using the Packers reality trade value chart, using the Watson & King picks as your guide.

Edit: And Love and Nelson.

 

[tynimiller]

I think you're going to be more accurate by using the Packers reality trade value chart, using the Watson & King picks as your guide.

Edit: And Love and Nelson.

Now to be fair, the most realistic trade chart to value is the Rich Hill one, because he's constantly reviewing actual trades and updating. Now of course you have QB driven trades which in all reality is a world all alone. But Rich's have always seemed to be fair closer to reality than many.

 

[Heyjoe4]

THIS 100%


I don't need anyone to win me over on a Chop Robinson pick or even a Darius Robinson pick. High value position, provides insurance to a second year LVN and injured Kingsley while also providing a different end piece that really isn't like any we have.

Everything you've said and many of us have observed lead me to strongly think we are heading to a trade up, trade back or a CB/Edge pick - two of the most high positional value spots that would receive instant playing time (a true outside corner could easily start by bye week honestly in GB).

I think this might be a year where Gluten trades up. One of the many mock drafts had him trading up to #15 to take Cooper DeJean. Jared Verse is an Edge guy I like, but most mocks have him gone top 10. DeJean can play S or CB, but it will have to be one or another. Need to avoid another Micah Hyde/Casey Heyward situation.

The secondary need, at CB or S, is the #1 need IMO. Wallace is playing well enough at LT that they don't need to use the first pick on a LT. iOL, Edge and other needs can be addressed later.

And this is a good year to trade up. They have two picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Might as well use one in an otherwise underwhelming draft and get a guy worth getting.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm a little surprised, too. There are a few charts out there, but supposedly the Draftek version is the one NFL teams put the most stock in. Here it is, if you want to check it out...

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

I keep reminding myself, this year we're probably going to see a completely new version of Gtekunst. For the first time, he's going to be all-in on the Super Bowl, and probably make some much bolder decisions than we're used to seeing him make. We have more draft capital this year than 29 of the 31 other teams, and if ever he's going to make a splashy deal, this would probably be the year. If there's someone he really feels is "the" piece we need, I can see him making the move.


This is a crucisl year for Jaire, which is one reason I think we'll go CB fairly early and more than once. He needs to be on the field. If he's unable to stay healthy, I don't see Gutekunst breaking the bank to extend him in 26 - or possibly even keep him around at all.

A lot of people were suggesting a few months ago that we trade him or even release him, but the dead cap was over $27,000,000 and it was arguably a year too early to give up on him anyway. But another year like last one, and it won't be too early at all. His 2026 salary is nearly $28,000,000, and his dead cap is down to $10.7M. Cap management is going to start getting a lot tougher in 26, and the $17M that we'd save would make things a lot easier. Plus, he'd have some significant trade value with a full year left on his contract.

All good points, and thanks for that Trade Value Chart link.

And you summarize the situation with JA well. The best situation would be for him to have a solid year and increase his trade value. He's a great corner when healthy, but he's not worth $21 mil/year. I hope I'm wrong about Stokes and he rebounds.

Leads me to believe Gluten trades up to 15 for a CB, most likely Cooper DeJean. But there are some other v good corner who will be gone by #25. So yeah, go for it.

 

[tynimiller]

I think this might be a year where Gluten trades up. One of the many mock drafts had him trading up to #15 to take Cooper DeJean. Jared Verse is an Edge guy I like, but most mocks have him gone top 10. DeJean can play S or CB, but it will have to be one or another. Need to avoid another Micah Hyde/Casey Heyward situation.

The secondary need, at CB or S, is the #1 need IMO. Wallace is playing well enough at LT that they don't need to use the first pick on a LT. iOL, Edge and other needs can be addressed later.

And this is a good year to trade up. They have two picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Might as well use one in an otherwise underwhelming draft and get a guy worth getting.

If you told me to list three guys I could see us trading up that far for it would be Verse, Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. I just see safety too much in DeJean and I don't see Kyle Hamilton level type either so I'm not thinking we trade up for that....at least not that far...now small move to 20-23 sure.

Matter of fact I believe in Q enough to say if Gute wanted to trade our 25, 58, 88 for Jets 10th and like a 6th back to pick him I'm 100% on board with it. I'm one hundred percent in the belief that Q is CB1 and a top 5 prospect from this draft.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If you told me to list three guys I could see us trading up that far for it would be Verse, Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. I just see safety too much in DeJean and I don't see Kyle Hamilton level type either so I'm not thinking we trade up for that....at least not that far...now small move to 20-23 sure.

Matter of fact I believe in Q enough to say if Gute wanted to trade our 25, 58, 88 for Jets 10th and like a 6th back to pick him I'm 100% on board with it. I'm one hundred percent in the belief that Q is CB1 and a top 5 prospect from this draft.

You convinced me of something. Better to take a player who plays one position extremely well rather than a "tweeter". Mitchell and Arnold would be great additions to the secondary. I think Arnold is forecast to go first, but one of them should be there at #15. I wouldn't give up so much capital though to get to #10. I'm not convinced it's necessary.

 

[DoURant]

If they trade up to the mid teens, Latu would have to also be a consideration.

 

[tynimiller]

If they trade up to the mid teens, Latu would have to also be a consideration.

Disagree unless 20 or closer - his hands are the best in that group, but he lacks the phenomenal athletic profile at least for me of someone I'm going up that high and spending that much equity for.

Latu avoided agility testing I think based on film because he again isn't one to win reps ever due to that - as it isn't something he's typically the better of in a match up. Latu's hands are phenomenal though and trust me if we draft Latu I'm going to be very intrigued to see if his flexibility and agility can grow BUT also can his handwork be passed to some others. He is a first round prospect, I'm just of the camp he is worthy of say trading up to 10-15 range for.

 

[gopkrs]

It seems like we are getting away with our interior line problems. If we hold on to the pick; someone should be there and then maybe the linebacker next. Then the RB or corner and another lineman. If someone else drops to us...ok. But it seems like we will get some quality players if we hold pat. Just my opinion.