Preseason Game #2: Packers at Ravens

[rodell330]

I understand Packers fans being concerned about Rodgers' durability as he hasn't been able to stay fully healthy for several seasons.

It's possible that he will be able to perform at an elite level into his 40s though.

If Shady Brady and Brees can perform at elite levels into their 40’s, there’s no doubt that Rodgers who’s got a stronger arm and more athletic ability than both can. Rodgers has never had the luxury of playing in a dome or under elite coaching like those two have tho.

 

[Croak]

Hmmm. I wasn't aware that Gillette Stadium was dome. Learn something new everyday I guess.

 

[sschind]

Talk of tanking is ... well it's too bad. I hope there can be some way of finding the culprits who do it and then making them pay. I'm talking about the teams, not the people on message boards.

Poker knows more about tanking than Oddball did. All those negative waves you know.

A hoarse, a hoarse, my Kingdome for a hoarse.

Of coarse of coarse

The problem being that you won't know the Packers aren't going to win the Super Bowl in 2020 before it's too late to tank for Lawrence

"Tank for Lawrence" doesn't have quite the ring to it as "Suck for Luck" did. We need to work on that.

If Shady Brady and Brees can perform at elite levels into their 40’s, there’s no doubt that Rodgers who’s got a stronger arm and more athletic ability than both can. Rodgers has never had the luxury of playing in a dome or under elite coaching like those two have tho.

Its possible he can but its also possible he has peaked and is on his way down. I doubt it but just becasue Brady and Brees played well for so long doesn't mean somebody else will even if he does have more skills to begin with.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers would have the benefit of the fifth year option using a first round pick on a quarterback replacing Rodgers at some point.

I struggle to construct a scenario where a 2020 high pick QB would be put on a 5th. year option, the year after Rodgers current contract expires.

That new QB would have to play in relief enough to make you think he's worth that option, the QB of the future, in which case you'd move on from Rodgers no later than the new guy's year 4 when Rodgers dead cap has dropped to zero. For 2020 (2016 draftees), the QB 5th. year option salary is $23 mil for top 10 pics, $16 mil for 11-32 picks. Adjust that for cap and QB inflation in the mean time. You don't drop that money on pure spec.

If the new guy has given reasons to drop that option dough on him after year 3 when the 5th. year option deadline comes due, and you keep Rodgers during that new guy's year 4 in Rodgers 2023 contract year, Rodgers (or anybody's agent) would know he's a lame duck. That's no way to run the 2023 season. Better to cut bait and move on after the new guy's year 3.

Timing is everything. And that's assuming you've picked the right guy and not some bust or mediocrity which happens more often than getting a mid-tier or higher starting QB in the first round. If you get the timing wrong, you have to do a Garoppolo before you get nothing when the guy hits free agency. 3 years in advance of the target year is far enough to get a do over if the guy isn't showing what is needed. Don't be Cleveland with multiple do overs. You only get a couple of chances before sliding off the cliff.

While you wait for that high cost draftee to show his stuff (or not), the costs are not negligible. Devin Bush, this year's #10 pick for example, will be paid $19 mil over 4 years under the rookie salary scale. If anybody thinks Rodgers sucking this much cap has its drawbacks, then pile another $4 mil per year on top of that for a #10 pick QB relative to a cheap Kizer. To have that pick and that cap sitting on the bench is surely no free lunch.

The current backup QBs do not inspire much confidence, to be sure. But if you're going high in the draft for a QB, you better have a deeper plan than "backup" given the costs. Whether going high for the QB of the future in 2020 makes sense is better left for after this season with critical information coming out of it. A team has to suck to get high pick in the draft after all.

Or just do what winners do: draft Jarrett Stidham in the 4th. round.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Hmmm. I wasn't aware that Gillette Stadium was dome. Learn something new everyday I guess.

A word to the wise. You'd have to be a glutton for pushishment to read every post on this board. Consequently, if you don't use the reply function when posting something like that most readers are not going to know what the h*ll you're talking about or to whom. If that's OK with you then it is OK with me--so long as you're not replying to something I wrote.

Or is this a smart phone thing where an app doesn't have that function? I don't own one so I wouldn't know. And get off my lawn.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If Shady Brady and Brees can perform at elite levels into their 40’s, there’s no doubt that Rodgers who’s got a stronger arm and more athletic ability than both can. Rodgers has never had the luxury of playing in a dome or under elite coaching like those two have tho.

Rodgers definitely could perform at an elite level into his 40s but he has to stay healthy. Unfortunately he hasn't been aböe to for years.

I struggle to construct a scenario where a 2020 high pick QB would be put on a 5th. year option, the year after Rodgers current contract expires.

Agreed, that's why I'm advocating to not select Rodgers successor until at least the 2021 draft.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Agreed, that's why I'm advocating to not select Rodgers successor until at least the 2021 draft.

Knowing what we know now, that's a fair assumption.

Circumstances over the coming season could dictate otherwise. There are plenty of known unknows. For instance, Rodgers sustains another serious injury, the team tanks, the scouting department identifies a Luck-type "QB of the decade" that falls to their pick. Conversely, the Packers win the Superbowl in 2019, and the #1 QB on their board makes a Rodgers-like fall to #32 because, this time, that guy is too tall and immobile as the copycat league tries continues to hunt for the next Russell Wilson. Or Rodgers is fit as a fiddle over the next two seasons, the Packers win the Super Bowl in 2020, and Rodgers is extended to pick up cap space in 2021 pushing a big slug of dead cap into 2022 and 2023 and keep doing what you've been doing. Or you could make a misjudgement with that draft like Kizer being a "first round talent" taking you to an as yet unscripted Plan C. The possibilities are endless.

The point being, sh*t can happen, good and bad, but as it stands now Rodgers' dead cap/savings in the 2022 season makes turning the page in a 2020 draftee's third season a plausibility even if unlikely based on what we know now.

This is just another one of those situations where making a projection is beyond the reach of even the front office. Various "war plan" scenarios can be scripted out but that's as far as far as it goes. There can be a kind of war that was not unanticipated or no war at all.

 

[Croak]

A word to the wise. You'd have to be a glutton for pushishment to read every post on this board. Consequently, if you don't use the reply function when posting something like that most readers are not going to know what the h*ll you're talking about or to whom. If that's OK with you then it is OK with me--so long as you're not replying to something I wrote.

Or is this a smart phone thing where an app doesn't have that function? I don't own one so I wouldn't know. And get off my lawn.

 

[Croak]

HRE - It was a quick reply to Rodell. I do read as many posts as I can since, to my knowledge I'm still a moderator. And yes I'm using a cell phone, but not always. Now about who's lawn it is ...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Knowing what we know now, that's a fair assumption.

Circumstances over the coming season could dictate otherwise. There are plenty of known unknows. For instance, Rodgers sustains another serious injury, the team tanks, the scouting department identifies a Luck-type "QB of the decade" that falls to their pick. Conversely, the Packers win the Superbowl in 2019, and the #1 QB on their board makes a Rodgers-like fall to #32 because, this time, that guy is too tall and immobile as the copycat league tries continues to hunt for the next Russell Wilson. Or Rodgers is fit as a fiddle over the next two seasons, the Packers win the Super Bowl in 2020, and Rodgers is extended to pick up cap space in 2021 pushing a big slug of dead cap into 2022 and 2023. The possibilities are endless. Or you could make a misjudgement with that draft like Kizer being a "first round talent" taking you to an as yet unscripted Plan C.

The point being, sh*t can happen, good and bad, but as it stands now Rodgers' dead cap/savings in the 2022 season makes turning the page in a 2020 draftee's third season a plausibility even if unlikely based on what we know now.

This is just another one of those situations where making a projection is beyond the reach of even the front office. Various "war plan" scenarios can be scripted out but that's as far as far as it goes. There can be a kind of war that was not unanticipated or no war at all.

Fully agree and good analysis.

Packer fans should be a bit used to this. Without trying to bring the whole Favre debate back, this reminds me a bit of the last several years of Favre's time in Green Bay, but for different and similar reasons. In the case of Favre, it really wasn't about money or health, but more his commitment to playing in Green Bay and the drama that surrounded him. With Rodgers, you have the money, health and to some extent, depending how you view it, his personality, keeping us all guessing how much longer he will play.

Bottom line, both QB's at this age still had a ton of talent, it was just a matter of how much of that talent would be available and how it jived with the Packer organization and fan base.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Fully agree and good analysis.

Packer fans should be a bit used to this. Without trying to bring the whole Favre debate back, this reminds me a bit of the last several years of Favre's time in Green Bay, but for different and similar reasons. In the case of Favre, it really wasn't about money or health, but more his commitment to playing in Green Bay and the drama that surrounded him. With Rodgers, you have the money, health and to some extent, depending how you view it, his personality, keeping us all guessing how much longer he will play.

Bottom line, both QB's at this age still had a ton of talent, it was just a matter of how much of that talent would be available and how it jived with the Packer organization and fan base.

I didn't want to get into the reasons why the Rodgers draft was more than just "best player available", but since you bring it up....

Oh, never mind.

 

[HardRightEdge]

HRE - It was a quick reply to Rodell. I do read as many posts as I can since, to my knowledge I'm still a moderator. And yes I'm using a cell phone, but not always. Now about who's lawn it is ...

I was wondering if the smart phone app even has that "reply" function. That was the nub of my post. In this case, I see the quote and your response split into two different posts. ?

As for the lawn, that quip was about not wanting such a device, alluding to my aged disposition. Not really, though. While I am very close to Medicare enrollment I am an ex-software designer. I have other non-conforming reasons that do no involve cost. But the posturing makes for a joke, lame as it might be, not a comment about who runs the show.

But since you mention it, it seems to me that under the new ownership the moderators have been using a lighter touch, letting threads wander where they want to go with more frequency. If that's the case, I approve of letting the inmates run the asylum from time to time, being a guy who likes a good digression, and letting it be their lawn.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I didn't want to get into the reasons why the Rodgers draft was more than just "best player available", but since you bring it up....

Oh, never mind.

Who knows, we might see a similar situation repeat itself for some of the very reasons you pointed out in your earlier post.

 

[Croak]

I was wondering if the smart phone app even has that "reply" function. That was the nub of my post. In this case, I see the quote and your response split into two different posts. ?

As for the lawn, that quip was about not wanting such a device, alluding to my aged disposition. Not really, though. While I am very close to Medicare enrollment I am an ex-software designer. I have other non-conforming reasons that do no involve cost. But the posturing makes for a joke, lame as it might be, not a comment about who runs the show.

But since you mention it, it seems to me that under the new ownership the moderators have been using a lighter touch, letting threads wander where they want to go with more frequency. If that's the case, I approve of letting the inmates run the asylum from time to time, being a guy who likes a good digression, and letting it be their lawn.

Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out how the phone interface works. And I AM on Medicare. Lol. It is certainly wonky at best.