Parsons Trade

[Voyageur]

Ugh, option bonuses. I didn't realize Sportrac doesn't seem to account for that. Or at least doesn't seem to account for how options impact dead cap.

I now wonder if they plan on keeping as-is in 2028. He'll be expensive, but not absurdly so. Though that assumes he's still productive.

I have a hunch the decision to keep him or let him walk will be based on where they stand as to competition level. If they know they're going to have to rebuild they probably let him go. Possibly even finding a trade partner who would be willing to pay for his services.

 

[rmontro]

AI on back injuries in the NFL

While specific percentages vary between studies, NFL players have a high prevalence of back problems, with studies showing 30.9% of spinal injuries in one period were lumbar, 13% of athletes in one franchise had prior lumbar injuries, and up to 52% of football players reported a history of back pain compared to 44% of controls in a 2020 study. Additionally, disc degenerative changes were found in 89% of football players compared to 54% of non-players in a 2020 study.

I guess that pretty well answers my question as to why I have back problems, as well as my son's having them as well despite the fact that he's a workout freak at the age of 51.

I guess this is completely irrelevant to the conversation, but when I worked I used to throw my back out about three times a year. Usually took a couple weeks to heal, but I would work through it. I had kind of a semi desk job, with some occasional physical action. I've been retired for nine years now, and I've only thrown my back out once, about seven years ago.

 

[rmontro]

It's a pretty good defense I believe, and Hafley seems to get the best out of what he has to work with.

Can't wait to see what he can do with Parsons.

 

[OldSchool101]

Explaining Option Bonuses, Which Made Micah Parsons’ Contract Affordable

GREEN BAY, Wis. – As part of the trade to acquire Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers and Parsons agreed to a four-year contract extens

www.si.com

Great article on Parson's contract details. The color chart in the Ken Ingalls X post shows the accumulation of Option Bonus $ resulting in dead cap throughout the contract. There is no "easy out" after 3 years as the Option Bonus $ each year is spread out over remaining contract years.

Small cap #'s early on, but massive dead cap if cut: $91mil after '27; $68mil after '28; $44.665mil after contract ends after '29.

Yep. This is why I was saying it’s a 1-3-1 the way it was explained to me. Once you hit year 2 she’s a 4yr deal.

Good news. In Parsons 4th season he’ll have just turned 29yrs old. Also his average Salary normalizes and we will likely restructure him to take advantage of the time value of league cap increases. “Kicking the can down the road” won’t be as noisy as it has been in the past. This is evidenced by 30 teams now maxing voids out. I remember that number being just 2 teams just a few years pre Brian Gutenkunst era. The old “credit card” example is the antithesis of its effect. Credit cards compound debt and charge interest. Here the time value of contracts are exact opposite in that they act as a forgiveness with a portion of the debt. For every $1 borrowed today, it feels like .80% effect later. I’m probably a bit low on that on a longer, high priced contract.
It not erasing the debt, but it’s minimizing its effect. This is especially perfect for a team in a Win Now window.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Explaining Option Bonuses, Which Made Micah Parsons’ Contract Affordable

GREEN BAY, Wis. – As part of the trade to acquire Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers and Parsons agreed to a four-year contract extens

www.si.com

Great article on Parson's contract details. The color chart in the Ken Ingalls X post shows the accumulation of Option Bonus $ resulting in dead cap throughout the contract. There is no "easy out" after 3 years as the Option Bonus $ each year is spread out over remaining contract years.

Small cap #'s early on, but massive dead cap if cut: $91mil after '27; $68mil after '28; $44.665mil after contract ends after '29.

Thanks for posting.

As more details come out, I have gone from initially being very skeptical of the trade, to liking the trade, to now a feeling somewhere in the middle.

This trade will only be a successful one if Parsons stays healthy, Parsons plays at or above the level that he has been playing at AND the Packers have successful seasons for the next 3 years.

If Parsons gets injured, Parsons play declines or the Packers don't have successful seasons, this will be declared as a bad trade. Even more so, if the Cowboys draft picks from the Packers end up being top 10 picks.

 

[Magooch]

I mean, I guess that’s fair but at the same time - broadly speaking - if you trade for ANY player and they A.) can’t stay healthy; B.) declines in performance; or C.) doesn’t contribute to team success - isn’t that also a “bad” trade? Parsons might’ve cost more than most but ultimately IMO these sort of pass/fail markers aren’t unique to him or his situation…

I mean, really we could evaluate EVERY usage of team resources by the same rubric. What if we didn’t trade for Parsons and kept our picks - if the pick doesn’t pan out, can’t stay healthy, doesn’t help the team as much as they “should” - then that’s a failed pick too, no? Maybe we keep our extra 40m in cap space but the players we choose to invest it in fail by the same measure.

I guess we could say the issue is “putting all your eggs in one basket” (but I don’t really think we’re doing that) but at the end of the day whether it’s a trade, draft pick, extension, free agency signing, etc… these markers of success (or lack thereof) are pretty similar big-picture to me

 

[Voyageur]

I guess this is completely irrelevant to the conversation, but when I worked I used to throw my back out about three times a year. Usually took a couple weeks to heal, but I would work through it. I had kind of a semi desk job, with some occasional physical action. I've been retired for nine years now, and I've only thrown my back out once, about seven years ago.

No. It is relevant. Your history with a back problem points out how easy it is to have one. I have a problem, both my sons do, my wife does, and basically everyone I know, and all those that played sports seem to have some sort of back problems. It pretty much goes with the territory from what I'm seeing.

 

[Zartan]

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Not bad for a guy with a broken back that needs a wheelchair to get around.

 

[RRyder]

I think its going to be interesting how much playing time he gets Sunday. We won't get the full Parsons effect of him going from edge to stand up LB to all over the field untill he has a firmer grasp on the scheme but hes not going to need to have that great if a grasp to be told "put your hand in the dirt and get the QB"

I think hes going to play more then others do but will concede he'll most likely have a pitch count

 

[milani]

I'm not saying that at all....he could need a shot and be fine the rest of his career.

It's prob why Jerruh balked.....

There is a certain reality that you described. Many an athlete has had what begins as a minor injury and either heals or eventually gets worth. It could be career ending or life threatening. Sterling Sharpe had a neck injury late in the 1994 season and he became toast. Jimmy Taylor suffered a severe back injury in 1961 but still suited up for the Championship game. Paul Hornung suffered a pinched nerve in his neck during his career but continued to play. It finally ended his career after SB I. We were never given all the extensive medical details we receive today. Players were shot up and sent back into the lineup in the old days.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I guess we could say the issue is “putting all your eggs in one basket”

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You followed that statement with "(but I don’t really think we’re doing that)"

In that same post you said this:

I mean, really we could evaluate EVERY usage of team resources by the same rubric. What if we didn’t trade for Parsons and kept our picks - if the pick doesn’t pan out, can’t stay healthy, doesn’t help the team as much as they “should” - then that’s a failed pick too, no? Maybe we keep our extra 40m in cap space but the players we choose to invest it in fail by the same measure.

So lets state every egg (resource) used to obtain 1 player (1 egg):

- Kenny Clark
- 2026 1st round draft pick
- 2027 1st round draft pick
- $136M of guaranteed money/cap dollars

If the Parsons trade didn't happen how many different eggs would we still have?

I count at least 4, with the 4th one buying a whole lot more eggs. 2 of the other eggs, the draft picks, they are still mystery eggs. For all we know, those could be top 5 picks.

Anyway, it really isn't putting all your eggs in 1 basket, it is combining a bunch of assets (eggs), into 1 big Egg and then hoping that egg will contain more than what you lost to make it.

 

[milani]

I don't believe I ever inferred anything of the sort.

Interesting to note that I learned just in the LAST year that the doctor who gave birth to me in ancient history was one of the Bears team doctors before I was born prior to becoming a General practitioner. As a kid I wondered how he went to all the Bears games and even flew out of town to see them play back in the blackout days.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Interesting to note that I learned just in the LAST year that the doctor who gave birth to me in ancient history was one of the Bears team doctors before I was born prior to becoming a General practitioner. As a kid I wondered how he went to all the Bears games and even flew out of town to see them play back in the blackout days.

No wonder you hate the Bears! The first human contact that you had out of the womb was with a Bear fan, who proceeded to spank your a$$!

Technically speaking though, I think your Mom was the one "who gave birth to (you) me".

 

[milani]

No wonder you hate the Bears! The first human contact that you had out of the womb was with a Bear fan, who proceeded to spank your a$$!

Technically speaking though, I think your Mom was the one "who gave birth to (you) me".

And she was never a football fan. She *****ed and moaned when my dad was glued to the Bears game and I was following the Packer game. And when the Packers were getting throttled in that 1962 Thanksgiving game and I was crying, she could not understand while I would not eat my turkey dinner.

 

[Pkrjones]

... 2 of the other eggs, the draft picks, they are still mystery eggs. For all we know, those could be top 5 picks.

Seriously, really? Short of the team plane going down in a firey crash I can't foresee any way this GB team finishes at 4-13, which would be bottom 5ish.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Devils advocate.

Trade one of the two 1st round picks down for 2 day 2 picks. Keep Clark. Pick up 2 big hole filler free agents. That's 6 players with some solid veterans and some rookies who will contribute when those veterans contracts end...

Or, an elite de/OLB. Which the packers have been wanting since like nick perry.

Honestly, after some contemplation. I realized this team is built as well as we can through the draft. Can't get any younger than what we are now. So apparently they feel it's time to get a elite 26 yr old defensive leader.
A guy like Parsons makes every defender better. So it's not just his double digit sacks, and athleticism running down ball carriers. There's a butterfly effect.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Another thing I've noticed since the Parsons trade.

Parsons had 88 tackles and 13 sacks as a rookie. Wow... I'm curious if our defensive coaches can do a better job than Dallas, at getting Parsons good matchups.

Combined with some numbers showing Clarks stats have dropped off like 3 of last 4 years. I haven't been watching close enough the last 4 years. But the numbers show he hasn't been getting the stats.

Anyways. We went from an apparent down trend with Clark. To a player with a potentially higher ceiling than All-pro that he already is. Maybe Parsons has a couple 20 sack seasons in him?

 

[OldSchool101]

I count at least 4, with the 4th one buying a whole lot more eggs. 2 of the other eggs, the draft picks, they are still mystery eggs. For all we know, those could be top 5 picks.

What I’m seeing is that your argument only provides only the opportunity cost to acquire Kenny. I’m not arguing that part it’s in writing. Once you acquire a Top tier player and hold his contract he doesn’t completely lose demand in the market, so there’s an offsetthat draft value, it didn’t just mysteriously disappear etc.

I’d ask you to formulate a guess on what Micah Parsons is worth in 2028, when his Contract value normalized and he’s no longer in the top 5 paid Edge Rushers. Let’s assume performance does not improve and does not decline. Either of us can argue that’s career ending or playing at DMVP every season. So let’s go realistic here. Micah plays his average of 2021-2024 but extend it through 2025-2027.

Be as objective as you can. He’d still be 28yrs old but flipping 29yrs in May, during Training Camp 2028. What would Parsons Draft value be PRE 2028?” Draft? (I’m using PRE Draft because future draft selections lose weight and their value becomes harder to quantify).

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Seriously, really? Short of the team plane going down in a firey crash I can't foresee any way this GB team finishes at 4-13, which would be bottom 5ish.

Maybe the odds of the Packers finishing in the bottom 5 of the NFL in 2025 or 2026 isn't high, but it is a definite possibility. Ask the 49'ers how injuries can completely derail a season for a team with playoff aspirations. It has happened several times for them in the last decade. In 2018 and 2020, their injury plagued teams ended up with the 2nd and 3rd pick in the following drafts.

I guess what I am trying to get across is this. While Micah Parsons is a solid football player, he is just 1 of 11 defensive players on the field. Some seem to be equate him to be the missing link to Super Bowls. I don't really share that view, since I think we still need help at DT, CB and WR and to be quite honest, the jury is still out on Jordan Love. In his 4 years with Dallas, the Cowboys won 1 playoff game, with pretty decent teams. Last season, they finished 7-10 and got the 12th pick in the draft.

So yes, Micah Parsons has been a great player. My only question is will he be a great enough player for the Packers, to warrant the very large investment of their future assets into him? Time will tell.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’d ask you to formulate a guess on what Micah Parsons is worth in 2028, when his Contract value normalized and he’s no longer in the top 5 paid Edge Rushers. Let’s assume performance does not improve and does not decline. Either of us can argue that’s career ending or playing at DMVP every season. So let’s go realistic here. Micah plays his average of 2021-2024 but extend it through 2025-2027.

Given the structure of his contract, I don't see him being in Green Bay after the 2027 season without a restructure. So when you talk about what he will be worth in 2028, he will be worth whatever the market bares for his abilities at the time. We know that "team discounts" are pretty much a myth. If he isn't playing at a high level, he will be cut after 2027. If he is playing at a high level, the Packers will have to pony up more guaranteed money, to get him to redo his contract.

 

[El Guapo]

If he is playing at a high level, the Packers will have to pony up more guaranteed money, to get him to redo his contract.

Always a good problem to have

 

[Voyageur]

Given the structure of his contract, I don't see him being in Green Bay after the 2027 season without a restructure. So when you talk about what he will be worth in 2028, he will be worth whatever the market bares for his abilities at the time. We know that "team discounts" are pretty much a myth. If he isn't playing at a high level, he will be cut after 2027. If he is playing at a high level, the Packers will have to pony up more guaranteed money, to get him to redo his contract.

The days of a player spending his entire career with one team has pretty much ended. It's the nature of the business today. It's not going to change.

 

[Pkrjones]

Given the structure of his contract, I don't see him being in Green Bay after the 2027 season without a restructure. So when you talk about what he will be worth in 2028, he will be worth whatever the market bares for his abilities at the time. We know that "team discounts" are pretty much a myth. If he isn't playing at a high level, he will be cut after 2027. If he is playing at a high level, the Packers will have to pony up more guaranteed money, to get him to redo his contract.

After 2027 is not an "easy out" time to cut Parsons, as his Dead Cap is $91.243mil (see the color chart in my post 596). 2028 dead cap is just shy of $68mil which might be possible if split over 2 seasons with post Jun 1 designation. Whenever Parsons is gone it's going to be a messy cap situation.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Always a good problem to have

I was merely pointing out that while Parsons contract is through the 2029 season with the Packers, it might as well be called a 3 year deal that ends after 2027. I was answering @OldSchool101 question as to what Parsons value will be after those 3 years.

While some may view it as a "good problem" to have, having to re-up on a player that cost the team a kings ransom to acquire and is already under contract for 2 more seasons isn't that ideal of a situation to me. I am just not a fan of having to pony up another sizable bonus and guaranteed amount, just to make a contract cap friendly for a few more seasons, and push the painful dead cap out even further. At that point, if there is a strong market for Parsons, I would opt to trade him and cash out with some decent draft picks and cap savings.

 

[Voyageur]

If they traded Parsons after 3-years, they would only have to eat the cap money that came from the signing bonus and that could be split over the two-years the way it appears.

If that's the case, someone might be willing to pick up the salary and bonuses left for those two-years as long as they don't need to eat the signing bonus.

Just a thought.