Packers V Bills Game Thread: Home is NOT on the Range Edition

[Mondio]

or they can just call out their BS

Strongly disagree in saying Lazard and Newman have same value. Lazard is a $8M a year minimum WR in this league if not more like $10M/yr given the market being set the last year or so for them.

No if we were looking to rebuild you're most likely somehow moving Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Preston Smith. P Smith IMO is worth more than Roquan or close given his level of play at a premiere position with an incredibly team friend contract through 2026 and easily cuttable any point before then, Roquan whom Bears got a 2nd and a 5th (plus a vet depth ILB) isn't a rusher and is a one year rental guy. IF we truly wanted to move Preston I could easily see us get a similar package to some extent.

Tonyan is an excellent one year rental type guy IMO for a team looking for now...Lowry a 6th or 7th for a team with up front injuries I could see for sure. Maybe a swap of picks their 5th for Lowry and our 7th type deal at most.

Unless Rodgers is done here we aren't rebuilding though and won't be sellers so our disagreements of value will never been known LOL

Roquan smith is one of the premier ILB's in the league. One of those guys that can do it all and are highly coveted. Barely a handful of those guys exist in the NFL. He's in his 5th year and smack in the prime of his career.

Preston, while a highly productive player is not a premier pass rusher. he's good, but he doesn't jump off the screen. He's good against the run. He's a very stable, very reliable player. Definitely has value and a decent contract that doesn't make trading for him prohibitive, but he's also 8 years in and on the backside of his career now.

 

[tynimiller]

or they can just call out their BS

Roquan smith is one of the premier ILB's in the league. One of those guys that can do it all and are highly coveted. Barely a handful of those guys exist in the NFL. He's in his 5th year and smack in the prime of his career.

Preston, while a highly productive player is not a premier pass rusher. he's good, but he doesn't jump off the screen. He's good against the run. He's a very stable, very reliable player. Definitely has value and a decent contract that doesn't make trading for him prohibitive, but he's also 8 years in and on the backside of his career now.

I am not saying Preston is a better NFL player than Roquan - but there is a reason there is more value on edge rushers than ILB, it is just the nature of the league. Their value at best is closer to the same than as far as the post I was discussing IMO

 

[Mondio]

that first part was not in response to you, just fyi

 

[Heyjoe4]

Just speaking as to what I believe his worth is as an NFL player, not considering any cap implications

Hey Ty, do you know why the Packers extended Savage's fifth year option? Could they have not done that, cut him after this year, and saved 47.9 mil in cap? He had a good first year as I recall, but I lost track of his missed tackles in the Bills game.

 

[tynimiller]

Hey Ty, do you know why the Packers extended Savage's fifth year option? Could they have not done that, cut him after this year, and saved 47.9 mil in cap? He had a good first year as I recall, but I lost track of his missed tackles in the Bills game.

The team clearly took the gamble that Savage was more like his 2020 season than the slightly down 2021 season...they had to exercise it when they did and it was a coin toss. I would have errored to not picking him up, BUT part of me wonders if they didn't want to risk entering the 2023 season losing BOTH starting safeties since Amos will be in FA after this year.

It truly was a choice I would have hated to have to make...they chose to believe in what they saw to pick the guy originally and the good 2020 season. 2022 is looking bad again and unfortunately we are now stuck with his contract....and most likely will have to see him in his final season....which watch he will ball out being in a contract year next year.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Strongly disagree in saying Lazard and Newman have same value. Lazard is a $8M a year minimum WR in this league if not more like $10M/yr given the market being set the last year or so for them.

No if we were looking to rebuild you're most likely somehow moving Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Preston Smith. P Smith IMO is worth more than Roquan or close given his level of play at a premiere position with an incredibly team friend contract through 2026 and easily cuttable any point before then, Roquan whom Bears got a 2nd and a 5th (plus a vet depth ILB) isn't a rusher and is a one year rental guy. IF we truly wanted to move Preston I could easily see us get a similar package to some extent.

Tonyan is an excellent one year rental type guy IMO for a team looking for now...Lowry a 6th or 7th for a team with up front injuries I could see for sure. Maybe a swap of picks their 5th for Lowry and our 7th type deal at most.

Unless Rodgers is done here we aren't rebuilding though and won't be sellers so our disagreements of value will never been known LOL

I have a hunch Brady will really retire after this year. Maybe he can salvage his disintegrated marriage, but even if he can't, he'll quit (if he's smart) so he doesn't become a complete stranger to his kids.

I'm pretty sure with Rodgers' ego, he won't retire the same year as Brady so they don't go into the HOF together. That will be Brady's day and probably garner a LOT of attention for Mr. GOAT. Rodgers induction would be an afterthought publicity wise. I don't think Rodgers could stand that. (And I really don't lame him. He's had an amazing career and deserves a spotlight.)

So - let's assume all that is true and Rodgers sticks around for another year. No need to start a fire sale yet. Try to get him some real WRs and shore up the OL. And Doubs and maybe Toure will be even better. They could still very well contend next year. And I'm sure they'll have a real DC by then, and MLF will be better from the lessons learned this year. Thoughts?

 

[Magooch]

If you think loading up on 6th and 7th round picks is the way to rebuild have at it. IMO.
GB will not trade Love or Watson (maybe you meant Watkins) who no-one would take.
List one. No one would take them.
1. Savage- no one not even the Pack want him on that 5th year option. GB is stuck with him.
2. Bakh- contract makes him untradeable.
List 2. If injuries made a team desperate you could get a 7th.
1. Lowry
2. Tonyan
List 3. Guys you could get a 6th for.
1. Newman
2. Lazard
List 4 - could probably get a 4th rounder for P. Smith
IMO.

I don't know if it's TOTALLY accurate but I'd say you're mostly there.

Problem for us right now is pretty much that we have a lot of guys that we arguably "should" get rid of and/or who are underperforming, overpaid, etc...but still perhaps offer us more value on the field than we would ever get in return for moving on from them.

 

[Mondio]

I'm pretty sure with Rodgers' ego, he won't retire the same year as Brady so they don't go into the HOF together. That will be Brady's day and probably garner a LOT of attention for Mr. GOAT. Rodgers induction would be an afterthought publicity wise. I don't think Rodgers could stand that. (And I really don't lame him. He's had an amazing career and deserves a spotlight.)

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[tynimiller]

I have a hunch Brady will really retire after this year. Maybe he can salvage his disintegrated marriage, but even if he can't, he'll quit (if he's smart) so he doesn't become a complete stranger to his kids.

I'm pretty sure with Rodgers' ego, he won't retire the same year as Brady so they don't go into the HOF together. That will be Brady's day and probably garner a LOT of attention for Mr. GOAT. Rodgers induction would be an afterthought publicity wise. I don't think Rodgers could stand that. (And I really don't lame him. He's had an amazing career and deserves a spotlight.)

So - let's assume all that is true and Rodgers sticks around for another year. No need to start a fire sale yet. Try to get him some real WRs and shore up the OL. And Doubs and maybe Toure will be even better. They could still very well contend next year. And I'm sure they'll have a real DC by then, and MLF will be better from the lessons learned this year. Thoughts?

I believe the Brady thought may be in his mind but I also believe Rodgers vanity is big enough to think the day would be shared honestly.....regardless with the extension he negotiated and the way the thing is structured I don't believe he is done for sure.

So as hard as it might be for even him, MLF and Gute and fans to swallow this year is all about setting up for 2023....the issue with that logic is there are TONS of contracts of notable players up after this year that would need replaced or addressed:

Amos
Cobb
Lowry
Crosby
Jenkins
Lewis
Lazard
Tonyan
Reed
Watkins
Barnes
Leavitt
Ford
Nijman
Nixon
T Davis

Then you have a few guys contract wise that don't make sense keeping without addressing/restructuring or trading:

Aaron Jones goes from this year hit of $5.9 to $20+ million
Kenny Clark goes from a hit this year of $9.975m to $23.973M
Bakhtiari is $13.42M this year and $29M next year...but for first year would save us $6M roughly if cut...if he wants to play out with Rodgers, would be amazing if he'd rework his contract, add a year maybe...
DeVondre hit goes from $4.2M to $8.25M
Rasul goes from $3.3M to $6.766M

If we want to exercise Love's fifth year that decision needs made by May of next year.

All that just to show, there is a TON of things for GB and Rodgers by extension to be willing to work through and possibly advocate to some veterans in recruiting to make 2023 viable push. The good news is Doubs, Watson, Toure all will have a full year of experience with Rodgers....even Amari is showing glimpses now or at minimum a pulse.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I believe the Brady thought may be in his mind but I also believe Rodgers vanity is big enough to think the day would be shared honestly.....regardless with the extension he negotiated and the way the thing is structured I don't believe he is done for sure.

So as hard as it might be for even him, MLF and Gute and fans to swallow this year is all about setting up for 2023....the issue with that logic is there are TONS of contracts of notable players up after this year that would need replaced or addressed:

Amos
Cobb
Lowry
Crosby
Jenkins
Lewis
Lazard
Tonyan
Reed
Watkins
Barnes
Leavitt
Ford
Nijman
Nixon
T Davis

Then you have a few guys contract wise that don't make sense keeping without addressing/restructuring or trading:

Aaron Jones goes from this year hit of $5.9 to $20+ million
Kenny Clark goes from a hit this year of $9.975m to $23.973M
Bakhtiari is $13.42M this year and $29M next year...but for first year would save us $6M roughly if cut...if he wants to play out with Rodgers, would be amazing if he'd rework his contract, add a year maybe...
DeVondre hit goes from $4.2M to $8.25M
Rasul goes from $3.3M to $6.766M

If we want to exercise Love's fifth year that decision needs made by May of next year.

All that just to show, there is a TON of things for GB and Rodgers by extension to be willing to work through and possibly advocate to some veterans in recruiting to make 2023 viable push. The good news is Doubs, Watson, Toure all will have a full year of experience with Rodgers....even Amari is showing glimpses now or at minimum a pulse.

Thanks Ty. Yeah Russ Ball is gonna be one busy dude for the next 10 months......

 

[Heyjoe4]

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LOL Mondio! Maybe Rodgers ego isn't that big. Maybe he could hold Brady's hand as they walk through the gates of Canton!

 

[gopkrs]

For this year, I have not given up on a playoff spot yet. We need to get on a roll and the coaches have to gametime adjust. But I don't want to spend on outside players. I think we can do it with what we've got. We could change around some on personnel. Like Savage. And so I am not for dismantling either. Except maybe a few coaches. jmo

 

[Heyjoe4]

For this year, I have not given up on a playoff spot yet. We need to get on a roll and the coaches have to gametime adjust. But I don't want to spend on outside players. I think we can do it with what we've got. We could change around some on personnel. Like Savage. And so I am not for dismantling either. Except maybe a few coaches. jmo

Yeah there is zero margin of error. They need to win 7 or 8 of their last nine games to have a shot. Those are long odds considering how hard the schedule is. There was at least some sign of life against the Bills. Yeah, there's always hope. It's not a strategy though, just hope.

 

[Heyjoe4]

For all the hand-wringing we're doing, the entire NFC with the exception of the Eagles isn't very good. The Packers are one game out of a seventh playoff seed. I know, I know - so what? All the smart money says the SB winner will be the Bills, Chiefs, or Eagles, and that's probably true.

But if the packers add a receiver and get help on the OL (even if it's just Bakh and Jenkins playing together), they might get to 10 wins. More likely 9. Would a 9-8 record be enough for a seventh seed? Maybe. But Gluten has to do something TODAY.

 

[Toad]

Even the players are upset over the play calling. Defensive play calling terrible and predictable and not trusting receivers to catch the ball, not running the ball enough and dumb mental mistakes by players. Where is the coaching staff this season??? All checked out???!

 

[tynimiller]

Yeah there is zero margin of error. They need to win 7 or 8 of their last nine games to have a shot. Those are long odds considering how hard the schedule is. There was at least some sign of life against the Bills. Yeah, there's always hope. It's not a strategy though, just hope.

I concur, slightly adjust the figure though as the way things appear to be shaking out 9 wins is the minimum number for sure probably to make a WC slot. Looking at schedule we need to sweep Lions, beat Bears and we sit at 6 wins, beat Titans at 7...then we have to win 2 of the other 5 including the Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I concur, slightly adjust the figure though as the way things appear to be shaking out 9 wins is the minimum number for sure probably to make a WC slot. Looking at schedule we need to sweep Lions, beat Bears and we sit at 6 wins, beat Titans at 7...then we have to win 2 of the other 5 including the Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings.

Makes sense. 9 wins probably gets a seventh seed, that’s how bad the NFC has become this year. I’d certainly take it. Anyway to get to the dance is ok.

 

[tynimiller]

Makes sense. 9 wins probably gets a seventh seed, that’s how bad the NFC has become this year. I’d certainly take it. Anyway to get to the dance is ok.

Having a top seed hasn't worked, I'll take a barely in fired up Rodgers.

 

[McKnowledge]

I have a hunch Brady will really retire after this year. Maybe he can salvage his disintegrated marriage, but even if he can't, he'll quit (if he's smart) so he doesn't become a complete stranger to his kids.

I'm pretty sure with Rodgers' ego, he won't retire the same year as Brady so they don't go into the HOF together. That will be Brady's day and probably garner a LOT of attention for Mr. GOAT. Rodgers induction would be an afterthought publicity wise. I don't think Rodgers could stand that. (And I really don't lame him. He's had an amazing career and deserves a spotlight.)

So - let's assume all that is true and Rodgers sticks around for another year. No need to start a fire sale yet. Try to get him some real WRs and shore up the OL. And Doubs and maybe Toure will be even better. They could still very well contend next year. And I'm sure they'll have a real DC by then, and MLF will be better from the lessons learned this year. Thoughts?

Brady is a lifer.

He's given up his marriage for the game he loves. Those are facts. I won't speculate on the rest of his personal life.

I think he's moving to San Francisco or sliding over to New Orleans.

He'll play til he can't no more, physically or mentally. He'll go out like Favre. He's not seeing ghosts yet.

Packer must get a veteran WR today!!!

Brandin Cooks is perfect for the rest of the year.

Immediate production and professional presence.

Aso, Green Bay might want to go get Bradley Chubb.

More pass rushing is needed. Give up the picks...

The Packers need difference makers ASAP!!!

 

[OldSchool101]

For all the hand-wringing we're doing, the entire NFC with the exception of the Eagles isn't very good. The Packers are one game out of a seventh playoff seed. I know, I know - so what? All the smart money says the SB winner will be the Bills, Chiefs, or Eagles, and that's probably true.

I know we don’t want to acknowledge this, but Dallas is going to be very much contending for a #1 or #2 seed if they remain healthy.

 

[tynimiller]

I know we don’t want to acknowledge this, but Dallas is going to be very much contending for a #1 or #2 seed if they remain healthy.

Eagles and Dallas are both going to be stout clear through. There is a world I wouldn't be shocked that division provides three playoff teams honestly if the Giants stay decent.

 

[Pkrjones]

Aso, Green Bay might want to go get Bradley Chubb.

More pass rushing is needed. Give up the picks...

The Packers need difference makers ASAP!!!

Denver wants multiple 1st's for Chubb... not gonna happen.

 

[McKnowledge]

Denver wants multiple 1st's for Chubb... not gonna happen.

Maybe they should. They spent two 1st rounders this year what's 2 more?

 

[OldSchool101]

Eagles and Dallas are both going to be stout clear through. There is a world I wouldn't be shocked that division provides three playoff teams honestly if the Giants stay decent.

Yeah.
Not sure who’s noticed but one thing that hasn’t helped is we’re playing all the teams in the AFC East and NFC East. Those are both strong Divisions

That Tyreek Hill is on fire. He’s making the Davante trade deal look bad. He’s on pace for 2,041 receiving yards (17 games) He’s pacing just 45 total yards in a season behind the leading Receiver in NFL history #1 Calvin Johnson 1,964 (16 games).

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah.
Not sure who’s noticed but one thing that hasn’t helped is we’re playing all the teams in the AFC East and NFC East. Those are both strong Divisions

That Tyreek Hill is on fire. He’s making the Davante trade deal look bad. He’s on pace for 2,041 receiving yards (17 games) He’s pacing just 45 total yards in a season behind the leading Receiver in NFL history #1 Calvin Johnson 1,964 (16 games).

It's easy to imagine Eagles/Cowboys in the NFCCG (I hate even writing that). I just have a hunch it's the Eagles' year, at least in the NFC. Anything but the Cowboys, please.