Packers Roster Assessment, 2025 Off-Season

[OldSchool101]

Guessing at our new WR Matthew Golden usage is a bit tougher because there’s not a lot of direct comparables. The first thing I did was I looked up a couple of earlier selections to see how they were implemented in their Rookie year when a chunk of draft capital is spent. The further back we go, the more variance just because our Offense has evolved so much:
Rookie Javon Walker 50 targets
Rookie Christian Watson 66 targets
Rookie Jayden Reed 94 targets

One thing that’s changed remarkably is once Adams got traded? The ball gets spread around much more evenly. No WR has had more than 95 targets with Love under Center. In Adams final season he had 169 targets. Last season individual targets were
Wicks (96)
Reed (95)
Doubs (72)
Kraft (70)
I think a good estimate with Golden targets is somewhere between 50-100 so 75 seems like a pretty adequate middle ground guess.

 

[OldSchool101]

Now Golden finished in the 70’s % catch rate finishing up College.
That’s amazing because his average Target was over 11 yards per. On passes over 15 yards he has a very good 60%+ catch rate. In contested he was 62%. He only dropped 6%

When you watch his tape from Texas one observation that jumps off the page to me anyway. A pretty good mix of poorly thrown passes his way. Especially Ewers he would even miss him by 5 yards a few times.

I think Golden will finish around 65% catch rate at 15 yards per catch. That’s a pretty safe estimate with wiggle room. That’s 50 catches or 750 yards in his Rookie season. I’m trying to account for the return of Watson also. If #9 was out for 2/3 season I’d round that up to 85-90 catches or around 850-900 yards area (Reeds area)

 

[OldSchool101]

The one outlier on O targets is we have quite a few guys who can ball. Any one of these guys passing 500 yards area wouldn’t shock me. Kraft, Musgrave, Reed, Doubs, Wicks, Golden, Watson. It’s just a lot of quality options, which could point the arrow down on targets to any guy in particular. It’s 7 guys eating off a Large Pizza. There’s also several capable RB’s eating up Receiving targets also.

I say that to put in a disclaimer. There’s a real chance that no player sees even 80 receiving targets (again) Meaning there’s no clear #1 Receiving option. That’s fine with me also, we may have 6 guys with 50+ targets or 5 guys with 60 targets that kind of thing
It makes it real tough for an opponent to game plan because we can shift gears smoothly.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I didn't refer to Heath. I only said I would rather Melton be a DB/punt returner than a receiver. At least that's what I meant to say. If he can't do that; I don't see a reason to keep him. imho

Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying. And I agree that Melton may be of more value to the team as a DB/PR. The WR room is very crowded and he wouldn't get a lot of playing time even if he made the 53, and that's a big "if".

 

[Heyjoe4]

Now Golden finished in the 70’s % catch rate finishing up College.
That’s amazing because his average Target was over 11 yards per. On passes over 15 yards he has a very good 60%+ catch rate. In contested he was 62%. He only dropped 6%

When you watch his tape from Texas one observation that jumps off the page to me anyway. A pretty good mix of poorly thrown passes his way. Especially Ewers he would even miss him by 5 yards a few times.

I think Golden will finish around 65% catch rate at 15 yards per catch. That’s a pretty safe estimate with wiggle room. That’s 50 catches or 750 yards in his Rookie season. I’m trying to account for the return of Watson also. If #9 was out for 2/3 season I’d round that up to 85-90 catches or around 850-900 yards area (Reeds area)

Good analysis of Golden OS, and thanks for the college stats. I hope your safe estimate numbers come true! That would be a solid rookie year.

I didn't realize he was getting that deep on his targets and catches. I watched some of his tape, and it seemed like he caught everything. I'm excited to see what he can do. And if he does come out of the gates fast, that will improve the games of Reed and Doubs who both took a sideways step last year imo.

As for Watson - I expect we'll see him back before mid-season. He needs to get better at route running, developing a diverse route tree, and catching the ball. The guy is an athletic freak and these guys know that they get out of rehab what they put into it. He'll be back sooner than expected. And paired with Golden, well that's a powerful duo at WR.

 

[gopkrs]

Good analysis of Golden OS, and thanks for the college stats. I hope your safe estimate numbers come true! That would be a solid rookie year.

I didn't realize he was getting that deep on his targets and catches. I watched some of his tape, and it seemed like he caught everything. I'm excited to see what he can do. And if he does come out of the gates fast, that will improve the games of Reed and Doubs who both took a sideways step last year imo.

As for Watson - I expect we'll see him back before mid-season. He needs to get better at route running, developing a diverse route tree, and catching the ball. The guy is an athletic freak and these guys know that they get out of rehab what they put into it. He'll be back sooner than expected. And paired with Golden, well that's a powerful duo at WR.

Yeah, Paired with Golden he should be able to get open even better. Not to mention others. If our O line is anywhere close to what it should be, if Gutenkust drafted and traded well; we will only need to worry about blitzes. And they need to constantly be afraid of the run.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah, Paired with Golden he should be able to get open even better. Not to mention others. If our O line is anywhere close to what it should be, if Gutenkust drafted and traded well; we will only need to worry about blitzes. And they need to constantly be afraid of the run.

I really hope Golden has a great rookie season. The Packers have a number of very good, but not great WRs - Reed, Doubs, Watson. By starting fast, Golden will be a catalyst for the other WRs. Of course he hasn't played a single down, but I am optimistic.

And we haven't even mentioned Kraft. He's capable of putting up an 800 yard plus season. And if Musgarve is healthy, well that's just one more target for Love, likely on passes 20 yards plus downfield.

I'm not quite sure what to expect from the defense. But if the offense plays even close to its level of talent, well the job of the defense gets a bit easier.

 

[gopkrs]

I wonder why we we haven't seemed to look at Rasul Douglas. Bad feelings? Wants too much money? We have enough corners? Lost a step?

 

[OldSchool101]

I wonder why we we haven't seemed to look at Rasul Douglas. Bad feelings? Wants too much money? We have enough corners? Lost a step?

I’m not sure behind the scenes stuff. However my guess is he’s not our first option at CB. He’s coming off a down year and he’s hit the magical number of 30. Purely a guess here but we might consider him as a depth or contingency option, which puts him closer to Vet minimum type $$ plus some small incentives. I doubt he comes back for that and I probably wouldn’t either.

 

[OldSchool101]

I will say this though on Defense. I did not realize how good (to expectation) Carrington Valentine ranked last season. #45 out of 222 eligible CB’s with a 70.3% grade. (60.0 is the mean I believe)
Nixon had an ok + season also finishing with a 64.5% overall grade or #87/222. Although when we consider he flipped outside to replace JA? I think he played admirable. Ge also was exceptional at being disruptive.
-#4/222 in Pass Rush grade (92.7%) which is Elite.
#166/222 in receptions yards per catch allowed (8.9 yards) but was impressive in Receptions allowed (56)
which ranked #10/222
-#32/222 in Pass Breakups.
I forgot Keisean’s natural position growing up was Outside CB, he says he never played Slot CB until coming to GB.

Nate Hobbs grades since his Rookie season (PFF)
2021 81% grade
2022 61% grade
2023 69% grade
2024 61% grade.
So he was average to good across a large sample. However what was impressive in 2024 was his 81% Run Defense grade.

So while our CB’s are not world beaters, they are either:
1. Early in their career
2. Switching positions
3. Very good graded in several individual categories, but around average graded overall.
4. Above average to pretty good compared to their peers leaguewide.


As a comparative our Day 1 selection Stokes in 2024 graded average to below average. 61.3% or #112/222. However Eric’s best singular category #47/222 (tackle assists) he needed help! He was poor in Run Stop #183/222 or 50.8% grade which is well below average. We just got an upgrade just walking him imo. Stokes was near non existent in creating any explosive plays whatsoever. O Sacks,
0 INT, O passes Defenses, O Forced Fumbles 0 fumble recoveries.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I wonder why we we haven't seemed to look at Rasul Douglas. Bad feelings? Wants too much money? We have enough corners? Lost a step?

Douglas went to the Bills, right? How old is he? He's got to be over 30. But he'd almost certainly improve the current CB group.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I will say this though on Defense. I did not realize how good (to expectation) Carrington Valentine ranked last season. #45 out of 222 eligible CB’s with a 70.3% grade. (60.0 is the mean I believe)
Nixon had an ok + season also finishing with a 64.5% overall grade or #87/222. Although when we consider he flipped outside to replace JA? I think he played admirable. Ge also was exceptional at being disruptive.
-#4/222 in Pass Rush grade (92.7%) which is Elite.
#166/222 in receptions yards per catch allowed (8.9 yards) but was impressive in Receptions allowed (56)
which ranked #10/222
-#32/222 in Pass Breakups.
I forgot Keisean’s natural position growing up was Outside CB, he says he never played Slot CB until coming to GB.

Nate Hobbs grades since his Rookie season (PFF)
2021 81% grade
2022 61% grade
2023 69% grade
2024 61% grade.
So he was average to good across a large sample. However what was impressive in 2024 was his 81% Run Defense grade.

So while our CB’s are not world beaters, they are either:
1. Early in their career
2. Switching positions
3. Very good graded in several individual categories, but around average graded overall.
4. Above average to pretty good compared to their peers leaguewide.


As a comparative our Day 1 selection Stokes in 2024 graded average to below average. 61.3% or #112/222. However Eric’s best singular category #47/222 (tackle assists) he needed help! He was poor in Run Stop #183/222 or 50.8% grade which is well below average. We just got an upgrade just walking him imo. Stokes was near non existent in creating any explosive plays whatsoever. O Sacks,
0 INT, O passes Defenses, O Forced Fumbles 0 fumble recoveries.

Nice summary of the CB group OS, thanks. I had no idea Valentine ranked that high, or that Stokes was soooooo bad at run stop and that Hobbs is so good. I don't usually consider how good a CB is at run stop, but it at least shows an ability to tackle.

Stokes had a great rookie year as I recall, and then injuries happen and he's never been the same.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nice summary of the CB group OS, thanks. I had no idea Valentine ranked that high, or that Stokes was soooooo bad at run stop and that Hobbs is so good. I don't usually consider how good a CB is at run stop, but it at least shows an ability to tackle.

Stokes had a great rookie year as I recall, and then injuries happen and he's never been the same.

On a bad day Hobbs graded out as Stokes career day in the Running game.
I think Hafley does a good job putting CB’s in positions to be successful as that’s kinda his specialty. If we can get similar or better production from Valentine and Nixon to what we saw last year, I think we’re good to go without JA. Hobbs might not be a Probowl Corner, but the more I’ve researched him he seems to be that higher floor player who’s average + in the Passing game and highly assertive against the Run.

Once again I really don’t think we NEED a starting CB. I think we could use a veteran CB to fill out our depth though. Problem is most better CB’s want to be featured more. That also stagnates developing guys in that room and you miss seeing what you have behind our starters.

 

[Heyjoe4]

On a bad day Hobbs graded out as Stokes career day in the Running game.
I think Hafley does a good job putting CB’s in positions to be successful as that’s kinda his specialty. If we can get similar or better production from Valentine and Nixon to what we saw last year, I think we’re good to go without JA. Hobbs might not be a Probowl Corner, but the more I’ve researched him he seems to be that higher floor player who’s average + in the Passing game and highly assertive against the Run.

Once again I really don’t think we NEED a starting CB. I think we could use a veteran CB to fill out our depth though. Problem is most better CB’s want to be featured more. That also stagnates developing guys in that room and you miss seeing what you have behind our starters.

I think the CB group will be fine. The S group was radically improved last season with the additions of McKinney and Williams.

My concern is with the play of DT/Edge. The LB group should take another step up this year. We've all heard it - the D has to create more pressure/sacks. Gluten seems to think they will. That makes the jobs of the CBs and Ss a lot easier.

 

[gopkrs]

Back to offense. I don't think it's a bad thing that Watson won't be coming back till later in the season. As long as he is coming back. Give him a few games to get in real shape and we are going to have a really dynamic bunch of pass catchers. Meanwhile I believe we will do well until he gets back. Mixing up running and passing. We'll really be good if that O line jells.

 

[OldSchool101]

Back to offense. I don't think it's a bad thing that Watson won't be coming back till later in the season. As long as he is coming back. Give him a few games to get in real shape and we are going to have a really dynamic bunch of pass catchers. Meanwhile I believe we will do well until he gets back. Mixing up running and passing. We'll really be good if that O line jells.

Amen. It appears they put him on PUP so not to use a Roster spot. So technically we can start the season with 7-8 WR’s. 6 on the 53, 1 on PUP and I think another makes PS. If my math is correct we can keep 2 of Bo, Malik, Mecole or outside chance someone else impresses and stays home.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Back to offense. I don't think it's a bad thing that Watson won't be coming back till later in the season. As long as he is coming back. Give him a few games to get in real shape and we are going to have a really dynamic bunch of pass catchers. Meanwhile I believe we will do well until he gets back. Mixing up running and passing. We'll really be good if that O line jells.

Agreed. There is a lot to like about this offense. Gluten beefed up the OL and added impact players. If Love can get his game to slow down, this will be a top offense. And with Golden at least temporarily replacing Watson's speed, there shouldn't be a hiccup while waiting for Watson to return.

Imagine an offense with Golden and Watson as the wide outs and Reed or Doubs in the slot. And then Kraft and Musgrave at TE. There is also the ability to substitute with guys like Wicks, maybe Heath/Melton/Hardman. Add in a very dynamic RB game and this looks like a terrific offense.

But.......... they still gotta play the games...

 

[Sunshinepacker]

And with Golden at least temporarily replacing Watson's speed, there shouldn't be a hiccup while waiting for Watson to return.

This is something i think a lot of fans are misinformed about. Golden is really fast in his underwear but when his speed was tracked on the field at Texas, he was about as fast as an average receiver. For example his speeds were notably slower than fellow rookie receivers Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, and Luther Burden III. I think he’ll be a good addition to the receiving corps but for those expecting him to be an elite speedster will probably be disappointed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

This is something i think a lot of fans are misinformed about. Golden is really fast in his underwear but when his speed was tracked on the field at Texas, he was about as fast as an average receiver. For example his speeds were notably slower than fellow rookie receivers Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, and Luther Burden III. I think he’ll be a good addition to the receiving corps but for those expecting him to be an elite speedster will probably be disappointed.

That's interesting and certainly something to watch for.

There is a difference between a fast 40 yard dash, and playing fast on a football field in a real game. Although I am expecting him to play fast. Speed and his catch % were two big reasons he was drafted in the first round.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm thinking he's gonna be quick and fast. Those two things will get you open deep sometimes.If he has a really fast 2nd gear coming out of a cut; that first 5 steps after the fake cut gets separation immediately. We'll see. I really haven't seen that much of him.

 

[Pkrjones]

I'm thinking he's gonna be quick and fast. Those two things will get you open deep sometimes.If he has a really fast 2nd gear coming out of a cut; that first 5 steps after the fake cut gets separation immediately. We'll see. Iect really haven't seen that much of him.

Correct. His "calling card" is that Golden is reliable: quick feet, gets open, strong hands, and makes catches. I'm hoping he becomes Love's "Amon-ra St. Brown"... when GB needs a play Golden will be open & make the play.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Correct. His "calling card" is that Golden is reliable: quick feet, gets open, strong hands, and makes catches. I'm hoping he becomes Love's "Amon-ra St. Brown"... when GB needs a play Golden will be open & make the play.

This is what I'm expecting him to play like. He runs great routes and has great hands but he's not a burner. Even the Texas coach said he was surprised that he ran a 4.29, he expected him to run something like a 4.4.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm thinking he's gonna be quick and fast. Those two things will get you open deep sometimes.If he has a really fast 2nd gear coming out of a cut; that first 5 steps after the fake cut gets separation immediately. We'll see. I really haven't seen that much of him.

I haven't watched a lot of his college tape either. The little I saw showcased his route running and catching ability.

I don't think a 4.29 40 happens by accident. Certainly Sunshine is right, he's gonna be slowed by the turf and wearing pads. That said, I still expect he can take the top off a defense much like Watson does, although unlike Watson, that won't be his calling card. His ability to get open anywhere on the field quickly, and make catches is what I mostly expect out of him. Pkr mentioned Amon st. Ra. I'd certainly be happy if he had that kind of success.

I'll certainly watch for his speed though and hope the 4.29 wasn't an aberration. I don't think it is.

 

[DoURant]

Big news for the OL... and it's "Not" Elgton Jenkins.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[tynimiller]

Big news for the OL... and it's "Not" Elgton Jenkins.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Pretty much right on the per year I assumed, touch more signing bonus but as expected.