Dantés
Gute Loot
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2017
- Messages
- 12,025
- Reaction score
- 2,957
@Cincinnati Smeagol here's what I think of the Bengals...
Offense:
-Mixon may or may not be able to go next week with his ankle injury. He's a rarity in that he's a true, blue bell cow. He basically has accounted for every single RB carry prior to getting hurt. Their rushing attack is OK when he's playing; I doubt it will be able to do anything of note without him.
-Burrow is more of the same in that he's a low aDOT, high completion % passer. That said, he's been more dangerous than Garoppolo or Roethlisberger when he does choose to take shots: 3 TD and 1 INT when targeting 20+ yards down the field. Despite getting the ball out pretty quickly, Burrow has a surprisingly high sack % (9.3 is 5th highest among full time starters). His interception % (3.7) is 3rd highest among full time starters. Now that said, his TD % is sky high at 8.4% (3rd behind Jameis and Mahomes), though that's a little misleading as his attempts are way down (only 107 so far).
-Rookie Ja'marr Chase has been the reason why those deep shots are effective at times. He's dangerous down the field. He could cause problems with the injuries in the defensive backfield that the Packers are dealing with. Tyler Boyd has been their chain mover, especially with Tee Higgins out recently. Like Mixon, it also seems that Higgins is on the bubble this week. If he can't go, and Mixon is out, then their list of viable targets will be getting pretty short.
-They've played Vs. Vikings, @ Bears, @ Steelers, and Vs. Jaguars and have yet to exceed 24 points in regulation. So bottom line, their offense has been consistent, but consistently unimpressive. They're 21st in points per game (not counting their OT field goal) and 17th in points per drive. Very little about this offense scares me, though it's entirely possible that they have a season-high scoring output against a depleted Green Bay secondary. My main concern would be to keep Chase from creating the explosive play.
Defense:
-The Bengals' defense is off to a great start. They're allowed 18.75 ppg, and no one has exceeded 24. However, they have yet to play a legit offense, outside of perhaps Minnesota (and week one results are by far the least informative). They're also not exactly holding teams below their normal output. The Vikings scored 24 and average 24. The Bears scored 20 and average 16. The Steelers scored 10 and average 17. The Jaguars scored 21 and average 19. So in other words, they basically allow teams to score about what they would normally.
-The run defense in particular has been stout-- 3.7 YPC allowed is 8th best in the league. Their net yards per pass attempt allowed (5.5) is very strong. They're among the league leaders in sacks, fueled mainly by sub-rusher iDL B.J. Hill and ED Trey Hendrickson.
-Despite the fact that they've played mostly bad offenses, I don't think their defense is totally a mirage-- they do have a number of quality players on the depth chart (thinking esp. of D.J. Reader, Logan Wilson, Jessie Bates, etc.). But I do think there's a personnel weakness when it comes to their corners. I don't see a guy on the roster that Rodgers couldn't pick on if he wanted to.
Overall:
I think the Bengals' offense could have their best showing of the season, especially if their weapons are healthy. Green Bay's pass rush has been wanting, and if Savage and Alexander are hurting, they will struggle to cover guys. If Mixon and Higgins are out, they will help the Packers mask their deficiencies. This could also be a game in which the pass rush of GB gets going, just given the poor play of the Bengals' OL.
At the same time, I think the Bengals' defense could easily have their worst showing of the season, given that they haven't faced anything like Rodgers and the Pack so far this season.
Given that they're at home, I could see this one going either way. A finish in the neighborhood of 34-28 would be my expectation (with either team winning).
Offense:
-Mixon may or may not be able to go next week with his ankle injury. He's a rarity in that he's a true, blue bell cow. He basically has accounted for every single RB carry prior to getting hurt. Their rushing attack is OK when he's playing; I doubt it will be able to do anything of note without him.
-Burrow is more of the same in that he's a low aDOT, high completion % passer. That said, he's been more dangerous than Garoppolo or Roethlisberger when he does choose to take shots: 3 TD and 1 INT when targeting 20+ yards down the field. Despite getting the ball out pretty quickly, Burrow has a surprisingly high sack % (9.3 is 5th highest among full time starters). His interception % (3.7) is 3rd highest among full time starters. Now that said, his TD % is sky high at 8.4% (3rd behind Jameis and Mahomes), though that's a little misleading as his attempts are way down (only 107 so far).
-Rookie Ja'marr Chase has been the reason why those deep shots are effective at times. He's dangerous down the field. He could cause problems with the injuries in the defensive backfield that the Packers are dealing with. Tyler Boyd has been their chain mover, especially with Tee Higgins out recently. Like Mixon, it also seems that Higgins is on the bubble this week. If he can't go, and Mixon is out, then their list of viable targets will be getting pretty short.
-They've played Vs. Vikings, @ Bears, @ Steelers, and Vs. Jaguars and have yet to exceed 24 points in regulation. So bottom line, their offense has been consistent, but consistently unimpressive. They're 21st in points per game (not counting their OT field goal) and 17th in points per drive. Very little about this offense scares me, though it's entirely possible that they have a season-high scoring output against a depleted Green Bay secondary. My main concern would be to keep Chase from creating the explosive play.
Defense:
-The Bengals' defense is off to a great start. They're allowed 18.75 ppg, and no one has exceeded 24. However, they have yet to play a legit offense, outside of perhaps Minnesota (and week one results are by far the least informative). They're also not exactly holding teams below their normal output. The Vikings scored 24 and average 24. The Bears scored 20 and average 16. The Steelers scored 10 and average 17. The Jaguars scored 21 and average 19. So in other words, they basically allow teams to score about what they would normally.
-The run defense in particular has been stout-- 3.7 YPC allowed is 8th best in the league. Their net yards per pass attempt allowed (5.5) is very strong. They're among the league leaders in sacks, fueled mainly by sub-rusher iDL B.J. Hill and ED Trey Hendrickson.
-Despite the fact that they've played mostly bad offenses, I don't think their defense is totally a mirage-- they do have a number of quality players on the depth chart (thinking esp. of D.J. Reader, Logan Wilson, Jessie Bates, etc.). But I do think there's a personnel weakness when it comes to their corners. I don't see a guy on the roster that Rodgers couldn't pick on if he wanted to.
Overall:
I think the Bengals' offense could have their best showing of the season, especially if their weapons are healthy. Green Bay's pass rush has been wanting, and if Savage and Alexander are hurting, they will struggle to cover guys. If Mixon and Higgins are out, they will help the Packers mask their deficiencies. This could also be a game in which the pass rush of GB gets going, just given the poor play of the Bengals' OL.
At the same time, I think the Bengals' defense could easily have their worst showing of the season, given that they haven't faced anything like Rodgers and the Pack so far this season.
Given that they're at home, I could see this one going either way. A finish in the neighborhood of 34-28 would be my expectation (with either team winning).
