Official 2018 4th round pick: J'mon Moore WR

[HardRightEdge]

Everything you said....is why....sometimes....these guys are still around in the 4th round

True...sometimes. But the inconsitency in this case is exceptional.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

True...sometimes. But the inconsitency in this case is exceptional.

going to probably be a boom or bust pick. Personally, I like the upside of Brown. But there again, there are people who think he won't make it in the NFL. Not sure if its the Packer optimism in me, but for whatever reason, I think all 3 of these rookie WR's are similar in big upsides, but won't be surprised if any or all of them bust.

 

[thequick12]

Everything you said....is why....sometimes....these guys are still around in the 4th round

The only reason this dude was around in the 4th is the 4.6 at the combine. Had he run the 4.49 intially he would have gone in the 2nd round. He was apparently consistent enough to post back to back 1000 yard seasons in the sec

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The only reason this dude was around in the 4th is the 4.6 at the combine. Had he run the 4.49 intially he would have gone in the 2nd round. He was apparently consistent enough to post back to back 1000 yard seasons in the sec

Could be about his 40, but Scouts knew what happened at the combine (he lined up in the wrong spot) and then saw the results of his Pro Day....which was a 4.48. I'm not a professional Scout, but I think most scouts would see what happened and it wouldn't be the sole reason he feel to the 4th round.

 

[AmishMafia]

Could be about his 40, but Scouts knew what happened at the combine (he lined up in the wrong spot) and then saw the results of his Pro Day....which was a 4.48. I'm not a professional Scout, but I think most scouts would see what happened and it wouldn't be the sole reason he feel to the 4th round.

I think his falling to the 4th had more to do with the depth of WR this year in the draft. JMon could have gone early 3rd in a normal year but because there were 15ish players rated at about his level, he lingered. Could have been any of those WRs. Teams took other positions in the 2nd and 3rd knowing they could still grab a pretty good WR in the 4th and 5th.

Thays why we ended up with 3 WRs late. They represented great value at those picks.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think his falling to the 4th had more to do with the depth of WR this year in the draft. JMon could have gone early 3rd in a normal year but because there were 15ish players rated at about his level, he lingered. Could have been any of those WRs. Teams took other positions in the 2nd and 3rd knowing they could still grab a pretty good WR in the 4th and 5th.

Thays why we ended up with 3 WRs late. They represented great value at those picks.

Agreed and good point. Crappy draft in the way of first round WR talent, but deep with a lot of guys that as you said, in a "normal" draft, would have been earlier pics and it was good timing for the Packers, who I believe were very much in need of retooling the position. Same could be said about the CB position in the draft. Ward was really the only one viewed as top 10 and there was a pretty large group of 2nd tier guys behind him, which is why Jackson was available at 45.

Now all we can hope for is the same thing to happen at Edge/OLB and possibly S in next years draft.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The only reason this dude was around in the 4th is the 4.6 at the combine. Had he run the 4.49 intially he would have gone in the 2nd round. He was apparently consistent enough to post back to back 1000 yard seasons in the sec

In recent history there have been very successful pros who were 2-time 1,000 yard receivers in the SEC: Jordan Matthews, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper. The list of one-time 1,000 yarders includes Alshon Jeffrey, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckahm. All were 1st. and 2nd. round picks.

On the other hand, there's Pharoh Cooper (4th round) who went 1136 / 973 (close enough), named All-Pro kick returner, but has contributied little in the passing game in two seasons. One-time 1,000 yarders include Shay Hodge (undrafted), Jarius Wright (4th. round), Da'Rick Rodgers (undrafted), Cobi Hamilton (6th. round), Justin Hunter (2nd. round), Bud Sasser (6th. round) and Laquon Treadwell (1st. round).

I think that's all of the 1,000 yarders who left college in 2009 - 2015 with 2 or more potential years in the NFL.

The NFL draft has been pretty successful in identifying which 1,000 yarders will succeed in the pros. Treadwell in particular is an interesting outlier. His Combine and Pro Day measurables were dreadful and the Vikings rolled the dice anyway. But that's neither here nor there vis a vis Moore who's measureables are much better.

The first thing Moore needs to do in order to not suffer the fate of those who came before him below the 2nd. round is to use his quickness and size to become a willing, able and reliable inside route runner. Otherwise, NFL corners will play outside technique, give him the inside route, force him to the sidelines, maintain contact, make him look like a 4.6 runner, and every downfield throw will be a contest. If he doesn't show he can catch and run on the inside routes, he might be open but he won't get the ball. If it's fear in the danger zone that's the problem, he needs to get past that to succeed. Otherwise, he'll look like this:

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[thequick12]

In recent history there have been very successful pros who were 2-time 1,000 yard receivers in the SEC: Jordan Matthews, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper. The list of one-time 1,000 yarders includes Alshon Jeffrey, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckahm. All were 1st. and 2nd. round picks.

On the other hand, there's Pharoh Cooper (4th round) who went 1136 / 973 (close enough), named All-Pro kick returner, but has contributied little in the passing game in two seasons. One-time 1,000 yarders include Shay Hodge (undrafted), Jarius Wright (4th. round), Da'Rick Rodgers (undrafted), Cobi Hamilton (6th. round), Justin Hunter (2nd. round), Bud Sasser (6th. round) and Laquon Treadwell (1st. round).

I think that's all of the 1,000 yarders who left college in 2009 - 2015 with 2 or more potential years in the NFL.

The NFL draft has been pretty successful in identifying which 1,000 yarders will succeed in the pros. Treadwell in particular is an interesting outlier. His Combine and Pro Day measurables were dreadful and the Vikings rolled the dice anyway. But that's neither here nor there vis a vis Moore who's measureables are much better.

The first thing Moore needs to do in order to not suffer the fate of those who came before him below the 2nd. round is to use his quickness and size to become a willing, able and reliable inside route runner. Otherwise, NFL corners will play outside technique, give him the inside route, force him to the sidelines, maintain contact, make him look like a 4.6 runner, and every downfield throw will be a contest. If he doesn't show he can catch and run on the inside routes, he might be open but he won't get the ball. If it's fear in the danger zone that's the problem, he needs to get past that to succeed. Otherwise, he'll look like this:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Ok after watching just the first two plays, on the first he blocks his man out of the screen. On the second you do realize that's not him that drops the slant and causes the int. From watching more one he's a very good blocker in the run game. Two I saw him beat his man and be open inside once when the qb went elsewhere and once for a td. He also runs a nice comback route then breaks a tackle and is quickly up the sideline for a long first down. I'm not sure what play you're referring to ? To me that tape was encouraging he was playing in a blowout and was still playing with great effort as a blocker and making plays as a pass catcher

 

[HardRightEdge]

You repeated a couple of my points in my post #149: willing blocker, the QB passing him up. However, note his routes are almost exclusively confined to the perimeter 1/4 of the field, and when he does run inside the QB doesn't look at him. There are reasons for that. These full-game spotlight tapes against top competition are instructive. Highlight tapes get you all the good and none of the bad. In that Auburn game, Moore had 2 catches for 35 yards and a TD and I don't see any evidence of him being double-teamed. The TD catch was nifty; where was that the rest of the game?

I take the following into conseration, which syncs with what I see:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/j'mon-moore?id=32462018-0002-5600-241e-b3b4f7f6d768

I wouldn't blindly parrot Zierlein's analysis; it's helpful to look at available scouting reports as an input since available tape is limited. For example, consider this on Valdez-Scantling:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/marquez-valdes-scantling?id=32462018-0002-5602-295b-f22af0b559c5

Zierlein notes "small hands for his size". False. V-S's hands measured 10". That's not small for any NFL player; that's a good number even for an OT. He notes too much body catching. I see can see where he might get that from the available 2016 tape, not so much in 2017. He shows good extention and hands in the few available instances where the QB had good ball placement. Zierlein notes his QB regularly underthrowing him. No kidding. When half the highlight reel catches are underthrows you do wonder how many opportunities went by the board. And body catches on underthrown balls are not a negative.

Conversely, against the highest ranked competition in 2017, UCF, where South Florida's QB threw for 503 yds. and 4 TDs in a shootout, V-Z's stat line was 2/9/0.

 

[thequick12]

You repeated a couple of my points in my post #149: willing blocker, the QB passing him up. However, note his routes are almost exclusively confined to the perimeter 1/4 of the field, and when he does run inside the QB doesn't look at him. There are reasons for that. These full-game spotlight tapes against top competition are instructive. Highlight tapes get you all the good and none of the bad. In that Auburn game, Moore had 2 catches for 35 yards and a TD and I don't see any evidence of him being double-teamed.

I take the following into conseration, which syncs with what I see:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/j'mon-moore?id=32462018-0002-5600-241e-b3b4f7f6d768

I wouldn't blindly parrot Zierlein's analysis; it's helpful to look at available scouting reports as an input since available tape is limited. For example, consider:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/marquez-valdes-scantling?id=32462018-0002-5602-295b-f22af0b559c5

Zierlein notes "small hands for his size". False. V-S's hands measured 10". That's not small for any NFL player; that's a good number even for an OT. He notes too much body catching. I see can see where he might get that from the available 2016 tape, not so much in 2017. He shows good extention and hands in the few available instances where the QB had good ball placement. Zierlein notes his QB regularly underthrowing him. No kidding. When half the highlight reel catches are underthrows you do wonder how many opportunities went by the board. And body catches on underthrown balls are not a negative.

Conversely, against the highest ranked competition in 2017, UCF, where South Florida's QB threw for 503 yds. and 4 TDs in a shootout, V-Z's stat line was 2/9/0.

Well the reason the qb ignored him when wide open on the slant on the 2nd play could of been because he's not a very good QB. Although he did complete the pass to a less open wr with a lot less room to run. Had he gone to moore he might still be running i don't watch much college but I don't remember Missouri ever having a QB that became a successful NFL starter. I guess closest thing was chase Daniel who maybe at best could be considered a successful backup. So essentially we're judging jmon while playing with Brett hundley presumably he's gonna be playing with Aaron Rodgers and undoubtedly that will make him look much better play in play out. The more I watch of him the more I see the similarities to Jordy. Not just the 6-3 size but also the way he doesn't waste motion after he catches the ball and quickly turns upfield almost always defeating the first tackle attempt. He already plays like a Packers receiver

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well the reason the qb ignored him when wide open on the slant on 2nd could of been because he's not a very good QB.

And maybe lousy coaching too because Moore doesn't even run many inside routes from what we can tell.

I'm not saying Moore was a bad pick; I'm saying the college tape shows limited route running and there may be a very good reason for that. Given the corners don't honor the inside should tell you something as to what they expect. You learn by doing and there ain't much doing in that regard.

Without that inside threat, he's going nowhere in the step up in compeition. I'm not saying he can't develop; there's plenting of athletic measurables and flash plays that say he can. I'm saying there's ample risk.

This is the Lake Wobegon time of the year where all the children are above average. My point is he was drafted in about the right spot, where WRs have a lot of work to do see the field, and the issue is not his speed per se; it's that NFL corners will crawl all over him and nutralize the speed he has if he does not develop as an inside threat. And developing that threat is a high bar under Rodgers exacting standards.

 

[thequick12]

And maybe lousy coaching too because Moore doesn't even run many inside routes from what we can tell.

I'm not saying Moore was a bad pick; I'm saying the college tape shows limited route running and there may be a very good reason for that. Given the corners don't honor the inside should tell you something as to what they expect. You learn by doing and there ain't much doing in that regard.

Without that inside threat, he's going nowhere in the step up in compeition. I'm not saying he can't develop; there's plenting of athletic measurables and flash plays that say he can. I'm saying there's ample risk.

This is the Lake Wobegon time of the year where all the children are above average. My point is he was drafted in about the right spot, where WRs have a lot of work to do see the field, and the issue is not his speed per se; it's that NFL corners will crawl all over him and nutralize the speed he has if he does not develop as an inside threat. And developing that threat is a high bar under Rodgers exacting standards.

Yeah he definitely needs time to develop especially in the Packers complex offense. But if the coaches are smart they won't overwhelm him and they'll put him in position to win.

Now let's talk about the slant he runs on that tape where the qb throws to the more inside wr. What do you see there? cuz I see a guy that will be able to do that against NFL cornerbacks his quickness is basically unmatched and inside routes are predominantly won with quickness.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah he definitely needs time to develop especially in the Packers complex offense. But if the coaches are smart they won't overwhelm him and they'll put him in position to win.

This could and should be said about all 3 rookie WR's, as well as Clark. So this leaves the Packers with Adams, Cobb, Allison and Davis as the WR's who should be ready to go on day #1. Davis doesn't have a ton of experience either and may not even make the roster. Packers are going to have to stay really healthy with their starting 3 or pray Clark or a rookie really makes a quick jump.