1. Welcome to Green Bay Packers NFL Football Forum & Community!

    Packer Forum is one of the largest online communities for the Green Bay Packers. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Sign Up or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Off/Def rankings by Football Outsiders

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Murgen, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. Murgen

    Murgen MechaPackzilla

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2007
    Messages:
    3,288
    Ratings:
    +585
    Couple of different ways to look at it. But overall, Packers are ranked higher for weighted team offense and defense. Weighted means games earlier in the year as giving less weight to reflect more on how the teams are playing now vs earlier in the season.

    Team Defense:
    GB #2
    ATL #17

    Team Offense:
    GB #10
    ATL #13

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis
     
  2. GreenGoldAngel

    GreenGoldAngel Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2010
    Messages:
    819
    Ratings:
    +133
    I will talk about rating or rankings next. A of people were dismayed the a 7-9 team made the playoff & received a home field advantage. I like the NFL's rules for determining which teams are playoff eligible to make the playoffs. This system has kept the maximum number of teams in the hunt for a playoff spot, which is great for fans and thus good for the NFL. What I do disagree with is the seeding of the six teams.I could write a 3 page paper on this but I won't, No way should a7-9 team be a higher seed than NO or GB (but in certain circumstances they could). OK, according to NFL rules, the following teams were playoff eligible in the NFC, SEA, GB,CHI, PHI,NO,ATL. My solutions:
    Seeded by strength of schedule, Resulting seeding:
    1) Green Bay
    2) Chicago
    3) Philadelphia
    4)Atlanta
    5)New Orleans
    6) Seattle

    A second argument can be made using something called SRS. Resulting seeding:
    1) Green Bay
    2) Atlanta
    3) Philadelphia
    4)Chicago
    5) New Orleans
    6) Seattle

    Pro-Football-Reference.com - Pro Football Statistics and History

    Click on STS and you will get a masters degree in mathematics. Thanks for bringing up the topic.

    EDIT: I picked these methods using logic. I had no idea Green Bay would end up the #1 seed.
     
  3. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2010
    Messages:
    16,590
    Ratings:
    +4,273
    why wouldnt you reseed on overall record?
     
  4. GreenGoldAngel

    GreenGoldAngel Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2010
    Messages:
    819
    Ratings:
    +133
    A reasonable question. Give me some time to think about it and I will get back to you. Thx
     
  5. Murgen

    Murgen MechaPackzilla

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2007
    Messages:
    3,288
    Ratings:
    +585
    I think most fans wouldn't really understand complex formulas to determine the seeding. Also, Atlanta fans would be pissed if they had to come to Lambeau to play after beating us at their place.

    I think Ivo nailed it with overall record, with the traditional tiebreaking system used if you wanted to redo the seeding.

    Personally I don't think the NFL shouldn't change the seeding rules. The current seeding system has worked (until this year) and It's annoying for seattle to host a playoff game, but no need to go change the seeding rules. If GB hadn't blown some games, they would have had the 2nd seed and be rested last Sunday.
     
  6. GreenGoldAngel

    GreenGoldAngel Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2010
    Messages:
    819
    Ratings:
    +133
    I understand where you are coming from. Please give me some time to think about your position and IVO's. I am learning that giving a quick response without thinking it through usually gets me in trouble. My ideas have weaknesses also. It's just a nice subject to think about. I'm going to do a post on the AFC, using all of our ideas just to see what the seeds look like, and then give my thoughts on the value of each. Thx for your input.
     
  7. GreenGoldAngel

    GreenGoldAngel Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2010
    Messages:
    819
    Ratings:
    +133
    OK, lets reseed on over all records. What does that look like?
    1) Atlanta
    2) Bears
    2) New Orleans
    Now need a tie breaker plan
    4)Eagles
    4)Packers
    Now a tie breaker plan
    6) Seattle

    The only tie breakers that are official are the NFL's
    1) Head to head....Packers beat Eagles.
    2) Win % in conference- Packers win this
    3) Win% against common opponents..Packers win this
    4) Strength of Schedule...Packers win this
    5) Best net points in conference..Packers win this
    6) Best net points in all games...Packers win this
    7) Best net touchdowns for all games...Packers win this.

    I don't have the power to change NFL rules but I have a lot of reasons for wanting to change the way they do the seeding. So based on won-loss, Packers should have been a #4 seed.
     
  8. GreenGoldAngel

    GreenGoldAngel Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2010
    Messages:
    819
    Ratings:
    +133
    The complex formulas were built using the NFL' own traditional tie breaking system, How can you compare Atlanta & Green Bay when they only played the same opponents twice out of 16 games. Their schedules are as comparable to Big Ten Schedule as to a Pac-Ten schedule. The Packers schedule called on them to play the NFC East And the AFC East, Falcons played AFC North and the NFC WEST. Why did the Packers Have to Play the Jets and falcons on road and the Bears get both at home? Yes the Falcons had a 13-3 record vs the Packers 10-6 record. But if they are playing completely different schedules, how does comparing W-L records make any sense? The NFL put some thought into tie breaking rules, which I wish they could some how use in seeding. I have not heard any complaints about tie-breaking rules. So just for fun, let's lookk at Green Bay- Atlanta vs the NFC and the NFL.
    1) Head to head....Props to Atlanta
    2) Common foes...GB 2-0, Atlanta 1-1
    3) W/L % in NFC..Props to Atlanta (which is why I hate that they don't play a common schedule)
    4) Strength of schedule... No contest..Green Bay
    5) Best net points in conference......Green Bay
    6) Best net points in all games.....Green Bay
    7) Best net TDs in all games......Green Bay
    8) winner of coin flip...lol...hope it never gets to that.

    Thanks for listening. The rules aren't going to change, was just something for me to ponder on.
     
  9. red4tribe

    red4tribe Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2009
    Messages:
    943
    Ratings:
    +435
    Honestly, I would just leave everything the way it is now. The Seahawks victory over the Saints is causing this knee-jerk reaction. It doesn't happen too often when a 7-9 teams hosts a 12-4 team and it likely won't happen again for a long, long time. And who knows? Maybe home field advantage played less of a role than we thought in that last game. Maybe Hasselback was just that hot.

    I have no problem with the Packers having to go on the road for every game. We didn't win our division, fair and square. Chicago, Atlanta, Philly and Seattle all did. Off the top of my head, the only other instance I can think of when a clearly inferior team hosted a better team was when 8-8 San Diego hosted 12-4 Indy in 2008. San Diego won. I like how the division winners host at least one game each and I think it should stay that way.
     
  10. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2004
    Messages:
    3,154
    Ratings:
    +1,312
    If you believe in the divisional setup, then you have to give the divisional winner a home game.

    I'd like to see another 2 teams in each conference make the playoffs, and eliminate the bye for 2 teams. You'd still have only 3 rounds to get to the Championship, and it would help to eliminate a 10 and 6 team missing the playoffs.
     
  11. GreenGoldAngel

    GreenGoldAngel Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2010
    Messages:
    819
    Ratings:
    +133
    JBood, I always respect your opinion, I do like the divisional setup for teams qualifying to be in the playoffs, but not for seeding. Fine, a teams qualifies for the playoff with a 7-9 record, I don't mind that, but I do mind that they they are a #4 seed. Read my posts on this thread supporting the seeding problem.
     

Share This Page