First "Quarter" Reflections From a Statistical Standpoint

tynimiller

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Lot of different statistical lines and thoughts so no one thread fit this, so here is a bunch of observations and stats so far from our season now that we are essentially a "quarter" (that 17th game takes that truly from us now) of the way through the regular season.

Missed Tackles An Issue
PFF has us at 25 total, pro football reference 19...either way we are not good compared to the league and not terrible but we missed according to PFF 10 each of the first two weeks. The more troubling thing is that De'Vondre Campbell has been the biggest issue in this stat. We simply cannot afford to have our main starting off ball backer not playing at a level we need. Campbell miss% this year is 14% right now...last year it was 2.8%....we gotta get at least halfway back to that IMO.

Explosive Plays Are Happening
Green Bay to some have a sputtering offense, but one promising statline is that they are one of the best. In passing plays over 20 yards we are second only to the Lions with 17 total. We are second overall when you add up those 20+ passing plays plus 10+ yard running plays. Big plays are happening, which hasn't always been the case. Aaron Jones alone has accounted for 13 of our total 35 explosive plays with 12 of those being runs over 10 yards (3rd most in the league on the ground).

3rd Down Defense is TOPS!
While the defense at times has given up swaths of ground late in games, this team one third downs has been incredible. One of only two teams with sub 30% conversion rate...we set at tops with opposing teams only converting 10 out of 42 times for 23.8%. That is essentially a full 15% better than the league average!!! Folks this is special. While we are middle of the pack in RZ defense, this 3rd down stuff is incredible.

Sacks a Plenty...for one especially
Team wise we have 11 sacks, which only 5 teams have more than us (5 other teams have 11). Gary accounts for nearly half of those though with 5. This is a special pace of 21 total sacks for Gary...if he sniffs that 16+ range there is a solid chance we could have a DPOY candidate. Overall Pressures the team is 7th in the league according to Pro Football Reference creating pressure on 27.7% of the chances to.

We don't have a 1,000 yard pace WR...but we do have THREE 600+ yard guys...
Yup, that's right we have three guys on pace to break that 600 yard mark...Lazard leads the pace projecting to have 928 yards if he stays healthy and keeps his trend...Romeo is on pace for 782 and Cobb at 637. Honestly, that SOLID production out of your top 3 WRs in the room and IF they did that would total 2,347 yards...last year our top 3 WRs put up 2,496 yards.

Rushing Projects Well Too
Jones is presently on pace to flirt with 1,389 yards (last year 803) again just needs to stay healthy. Dillon projects to 896 if trends stay (799 last year). It is tough to envision Jones keeping his YPC as high as he presently boasts at 6.8....but who knows.

Turnover differential not good
The team has 4 takeaways and 6 giveaways (3 INTs and 3 Fumbles Lost)....this is one facet we have to get better at.

Pat O'Donnell has been incredible
He is averaging a better distance than Bojo by a little but check out this INSANE line. Bojo had 18 punts end up inside the 20....Pat already just four games in has 11. ELEVEN!!! Bojo had only 12 fair catches...Pat already has 7. SEVEN. Now Pat has averaged one additional punt a game in his four vs Bojo across the 2021 season....but still.

Yards After Contact and Yards After Catch We Are Excelling
Yards after contact Aaron Jones is one of the best this year so far, averaging an additional 3.4 yards. ONLY Rashaad Penny averages more after that contact. Dillon isn't terrible with his style difference and is the 33rd best in this, 31st best RB (as Allen and Lamar made list). As for Yards After Catch...Doubs is the 20th best in the league but the 9th best WR in total yards after catch. We have FOUR (Jones, Dillon, Cobb, Doubs) in the Top 35 in average yards after the catch per reception.

Runyan is a pass protect BEAST
Jon Runyan after week 4 is now one of ONLY TWO offensive lineman in the league to have played at least 50 pass blocking snaps and not give up a pressure. Corey Linsley is actually the other one. Runyan has been credited with 124 clean pass protecting snaps this year according to PFF.

Rodgers Fourth Quickest So Far

Aaron is averaging only 2.46 seconds before getting the ball out of his hand, good for the fourth quickest in the league. Right now according to PFF Rodgers is completing over 80% of his passes when he no longer has the ball by 2.5 seconds.
 

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Rodgers Fourth Quickest So Far
Aaron is averaging only 2.46 seconds before getting the ball out of his hand, good for the fourth quickest in the league. Right now according to PFF Rodgers is completing over 80% of his passes when he no longer has the ball by 2.5 seconds.
I'm sure those 2 foot jet sweep "passes" aid in these stats.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I'll be honest the pace our offense has yards wise actually surprised me from both a rush and passing perspective.
 

milani

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Lot of different statistical lines and thoughts so no one thread fit this, so here is a bunch of observations and stats so far from our season now that we are essentially a "quarter" (that 17th game takes that truly from us now) of the way through the regular season.

Missed Tackles An Issue
PFF has us at 25 total, pro football reference 19...either way we are not good compared to the league and not terrible but we missed according to PFF 10 each of the first two weeks. The more troubling thing is that De'Vondre Campbell has been the biggest issue in this stat. We simply cannot afford to have our main starting off ball backer not playing at a level we need. Campbell miss% this year is 14% right now...last year it was 2.8%....we gotta get at least halfway back to that IMO.

Explosive Plays Are Happening
Green Bay to some have a sputtering offense, but one promising statline is that they are one of the best. In passing plays over 20 yards we are second only to the Lions with 17 total. We are second overall when you add up those 20+ passing plays plus 10+ yard running plays. Big plays are happening, which hasn't always been the case. Aaron Jones alone has accounted for 13 of our total 35 explosive plays with 12 of those being runs over 10 yards (3rd most in the league on the ground).

3rd Down Defense is TOPS!
While the defense at times has given up swaths of ground late in games, this team one third downs has been incredible. One of only two teams with sub 30% conversion rate...we set at tops with opposing teams only converting 10 out of 42 times for 23.8%. That is essentially a full 15% better than the league average!!! Folks this is special. While we are middle of the pack in RZ defense, this 3rd down stuff is incredible.

Sacks a Plenty...for one especially
Team wise we have 11 sacks, which only 5 teams have more than us (5 other teams have 11). Gary accounts for nearly half of those though with 5. This is a special pace of 21 total sacks for Gary...if he sniffs that 16+ range there is a solid chance we could have a DPOY candidate. Overall Pressures the team is 7th in the league according to Pro Football Reference creating pressure on 27.7% of the chances to.

We don't have a 1,000 yard pace WR...but we do have THREE 600+ yard guys...
Yup, that's right we have three guys on pace to break that 600 yard mark...Lazard leads the pace projecting to have 928 yards if he stays healthy and keeps his trend...Romeo is on pace for 782 and Cobb at 637. Honestly, that SOLID production out of your top 3 WRs in the room and IF they did that would total 2,347 yards...last year our top 3 WRs put up 2,496 yards.

Rushing Projects Well Too
Jones is presently on pace to flirt with 1,389 yards (last year 803) again just needs to stay healthy. Dillon projects to 896 if trends stay (799 last year). It is tough to envision Jones keeping his YPC as high as he presently boasts at 6.8....but who knows.

Turnover differential not good
The team has 4 takeaways and 6 giveaways (3 INTs and 3 Fumbles Lost)....this is one facet we have to get better at.

Pat O'Donnell has been incredible
He is averaging a better distance than Bojo by a little but check out this INSANE line. Bojo had 18 punts end up inside the 20....Pat already just four games in has 11. ELEVEN!!! Bojo had only 12 fair catches...Pat already has 7. SEVEN. Now Pat has averaged one additional punt a game in his four vs Bojo across the 2021 season....but still.

Yards After Contact and Yards After Catch We Are Excelling
Yards after contact Aaron Jones is one of the best this year so far, averaging an additional 3.4 yards. ONLY Rashaad Penny averages more after that contact. Dillon isn't terrible with his style difference and is the 33rd best in this, 31st best RB (as Allen and Lamar made list). As for Yards After Catch...Doubs is the 20th best in the league but the 9th best WR in total yards after catch. We have FOUR (Jones, Dillon, Cobb, Doubs) in the Top 35 in average yards after the catch per reception.

Runyan is a pass protect BEAST
Jon Runyan after week 4 is now one of ONLY TWO offensive lineman in the league to have played at least 50 pass blocking snaps and not give up a pressure. Corey Linsley is actually the other one. Runyan has been credited with 124 clean pass protecting snaps this year according to PFF.

Rodgers Fourth Quickest So Far
Aaron is averaging only 2.46 seconds before getting the ball out of his hand, good for the fourth quickest in the league. Right now according to PFF Rodgers is completing over 80% of his passes when he no longer has the ball by 2.5 seconds.
Good information. What the stats do not reveal is a 2 point and a 3 point OT win. We could easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1. 2 key plays on defense this season. Stopping the Bucs 2 point try and stopping the Pats after a 1st down at our 48 in OT. O'Donnell has been a blessing. Rodgers will probably continue to release quick until he can get consistent route running more than 10 yards downfield. It is good to have Tonyan back but I believe in light of no major weapon like Adams downfield we have to find a way to move with our TEs. A young threat like a Jimmy G, a Kittle, a Jermichael Finley would force defenses to play us differently.
 

McKnowledge

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Numbers never lie, but the interpretation of them can and do change.

I think this offense is better than expected.

There is a high probability that GB doesn't produce a 1,000 receiver. So what?!

3-4 guys crossing 600 yards is a nice achievement.

I think come Thanksgiving, Green Bay will be humming like a fine tuned truck.

The run game can be dominant and if Christian Watson gets a couple jet sweeps and screens, then opposing defenses will go crazy.

This team is a legitimate threat out the NFC.

However, this is not the year to be timid and conservative.

I want to see this team hungry and slightly unhinged.

Lambeau needs to restore the fear opposing teams felt when they came North.

Better to be the bully, not the bullied.
 

Magooch

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Somehow we are still top-10 in the league too in 3rd down conversions (20/47, 42.6% per Pro Football Reference) which is crazy to me as it feels like we've successfully converted like four third downs all year, lol.
 
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Somehow we are still top-10 in the league too in 3rd down conversions (20/47, 42.6% per Pro Football Reference) which is crazy to me as it feels like we've successfully converted like four third downs all year, lol.
Yes. That’s kind of the mark of a great team on the rise for me. When they Win close games (that are very winnable to begin with) but yet they get in their own way to a degree. We’re playing C+ B- grade football considering who is running the show, but we’re winning games and gaining steam. The only team that blew us out was MN and it really happened in the first 2 Quarters of the opening game of the 2022 season (on the road). That MN game would be much closer if played this week. By the time we play them at Lambeau, we should be 3-5pt. favorites.

Our litmus test will be Buffalo. We won’t have any respect until we can hang with the big boys.
 

milani

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Somehow we are still top-10 in the league too in 3rd down conversions (20/47, 42.6% per Pro Football Reference) which is crazy to me as it feels like we've successfully converted like four third downs all year, lol.
Is it because we have had 47 3rd downs in 4 games? That is almost 12 per game. A team that does well on 1st and 2nd done gets to 3rd down less. And a team that scores in faster or shorter drives has less 3rd downs. So far we have not appeared to be a big strike team this year. Drops? The home run to Watkins in garbage time was our longest of the year. Different offense this year so far.
 
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