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Nickel and Dime'd again

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by JBlood, Feb 13, 2013.

  1. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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  2. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    According to the author, the other reason was Hayward "was a revelation", Williams "stayed healthy" and they "weren't shy" using Shields and House opposite Williams. IOW, the play of the CBs allowed them to use nickel and dime. IMO this reinforces (to the degree you agree with the author) that CB is not a need for the Packers as long as they retain Shields.

    The blurb on cheesheadtv also notes the Packers allowed 4.6 ypc in their base and 5.1 ypc in the nickel and dime. I liked one of the comments that noted the raw averages don't take into consideration the average down and distance so they aren't very telling - on 3rd and 15 a 6 yard run is a victory for the D. IMO the Packers have to improve vs. the run but if you are looking at just one stat on the defensive side of the ball, it's points surrendered. The Packers improved significantly in that stat from 2011 to 2012 but they still have some improving to do and if they improve again I really don't care which percentage of snaps were in the base, nickel, or dime.
     
  3. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    The writer notes the Pack led the league in 5+ DB sets the past two years, then attributes the 2012 phenomenon to Heyward, a 2012 rookie, and other personnel variables!?

    In fact, 5+ DB sets went down slightly in 2012 from 69.0% in 2011.

    While I can't locate a reference, if memory serves the Packers were at or near the top of the league in 5+ DB sets in 2010 as well, somewhere in the 60-70% range, with Woodson wrecking havoc in the nickel back spot.

    We've seen a lot of personnel changes from the "starting" nickel package at the start of 2010 to the end of 2012, while frequency of use has stayed relatively constant.

    The logical conclusion would be high nickel/dime frequency is a function of scheme, not personnel.

    I agree with Jack that the CB crew to 4 deep on the roster is a strong coverage group, assuming good health.
     
  4. ExpatPacker

    ExpatPacker Cheesehead

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    If so then using the draft to improve at ILB and DT/NT would be very important. Packers' lack of a pass rush has been the focus of a lot of discussion, but it's the rush defense that's a problem.

    Assuming Perry comes back and improves (a fairly safe assumption), I wonder if an ILB like Kevin Minter is worth taking in round 1. Or a DT Jonathan Jenkins who excels as a run stuffer who doesn't get blown off the line. I'd lean toward Jenkins over Minter if he's available...of course we haven't seen the combine yet.

    Jonathan Bostic at ILB might be a good pick in the middle rounds.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    NT is not an immediate concern, though they are hard to find and we'll need one or two by 2014. As discussed in other threads, if Jenkins drops 15-20 lbs. for the Combine, he'll probably be out of reach; he could blow up to top 15 with a good showing. If he shows up at 360 lbs., you have to wonder about motivation. He must know weight drop is what all the scouts want to see and there's a lot of money on the table associated with those 15-20 lbs. Taking the heavier version in our spot in the first round requires strong belief in your ability to whip him into shape...in this respect he might be a reach in the first round. Still and all, even at 360 lbs., the guy has a motor that runs into the 4th. quarter. He has Pro Bowl-potential if the talent can be harnessed. Right now, he should be on the short list.

    ILB has to be a concern because there are injury, performance, upside and/or contract question marks associated with every ILB name on the roster. For me, this is a case of insufficient information regarding injuries and contracts. That said, what we've been missing from the incumbents is coverage skills. Jones has probably been our best coverage guy, which is not exactly confidence-instilling, and he's a FA on the bubble. Minter's an ex-safety, so you gotta figure he's got some coverage skills and potential as a 3-down, 3-tool ILB (hit, blitz, cover). He'd be insurance for Bishop failing to recover fully, and the eventual replacement for Hawk if he's kept around for another year, which probably won't be decided until after June 1. Minter should be on the short list. If nothing else, we might be able to trade down with BALT if he's still on the board if we like a couple of other guys instead.

    Safety has one big question mark...will Woodson be on the team in 2013? If not, an argument could be made for going safety as high as the 1st. round. Other than Woodson, none of the guys we have next to Burnett look like 3-down players. If I had to guess, I'd say we try to get Woodson down to $5 mil and stand pat at the position.

    We have an issue at DE; we have not gotten anywhere close to replacing Cullen Jenkins' consistency and production. We don't have a proven 3-down player who can move inside and get some pressure in nickel. Neal fits the blueprint, but we've only seen a few flashes in between stretches of questionable play. We tried to address the issue last season by drafting a couple of 4-3 DTs worked in rotation. That helped some; the pass rush was improved. The problem is the 8 or so prototype guys in the draft over the last two seasons were taken off the board before our pick. This year, the draft looks quite thin for prototype 3-4 DEs.

    For good or ill, OLB will probably not be a high priority. The 1st. round pick in his second season will be given every chance to fail, and then some. We might be looking at a backup in the middle rounds. If Walden is not re-signed, the need goes up somewhat. OLB in the 1st. or 2nd. round would be an acknowledgement that Perry was a mistake; GM's don't do that until at least the 3rd. year.

    In summary, assuming Woodson returns, we have ILB and DE spots without solid 3-down players, even if you assume everybody returns healthy. If Woodson is released, add S to the list.
     
  6. CHIpackFAN

    CHIpackFAN Cheesehead

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    While watching the 49ers, i noticed that no matter what the offense shows, the very rarily come out of there 3-4 alignment. I really believe that has to be a key to there success, outside of the phenomenal players that they have. We very rarily stay in our 3-4 alignment.
     
  7. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    The point is that until we control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, we'll struggle. We need better play on both sides of the lines.
     

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