NFC North Watch 2023/24

Poppa San

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With a 3 game lead in the loss column with 5 or 6 games left, it looks like Detroit is the NFCN champions barring a catastrophic collapse ..... or ..... the Lions doing Lions things.
 

milani

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With a 3 game lead in the loss column with 5 or 6 games left, it looks like Detroit is the NFCN champions barring a catastrophic collapse ..... or ..... the Lions doing Lions things.
The Packers have to be leery of games against Carolina, NY, and Tampa. The Bears and Vikings automatically light your fire. But these other teams who will be out of it do not get you excited. MLF has to get them pumped up.
 

El Guapo

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The Lions don't have the cake schedule that we have, so albeit a long shot, I wouldn't crown them champs yet. They play the Cowboys, Broncos (riding a 5 game win streak against some good teams), and the Vikings twice. It is not crazy to think that they could lose three of those games.

We've got to run the table or only lose one game to have a shot at the playoffs.
 
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The Lions don't have the cake schedule that we have, so albeit a long shot, I wouldn't crown them champs yet.

We've got to run the table or only lose one game to have a shot at the playoffs.
Did you mean Division Winner?
Relook at that bold part. A Win at KC puts us in a 3-way tie for a 6th/7th seed. Dont let the 5-6 record get you hung up it’s somewhat deceptive. In most years you’d be correct though with a 5-6.

The current 6th seed Seattle is at 6-6 holds the better NFC Conference record (5-4). Their schedule looks like this:
@ 49ers 8-3 (NFC)
Eagles 10-1 (NFC)

@Titans 4-7
Steelers 7-4
@Arizona 2-10 (NFC)
There’s a very likely chance Seattle will hold a 6-6 Conference record unless it upsets SF OR Eagles + beats their easier opponent in Arizona. I can see a likely scenario where Seattle finishes 8-9 or 9-8
(6-6 in conference)

The Packers 4-3 Conference would need only match Seattles record AND beat 3 NFC teams along the way. Which is a very probable outcome.
KC 8-3 (AFC)
@Giants 4-8 (NFC)
Buccaneers 4-7 (NFC)
@Panthers 1-10 (NFC)
@Vikings 6-6 (NFC)
Bears 4-8 (NFC)

What’s also a key detail and some don’t realize is the Packers are also in a 3- way tie with Rams/Saints at 5-6. But we beat both teams ;)
Ironically Andrew Whitworth on the NFL “nightcap” last night was the only one aware of this, possibly because he’s a LA Rams supporter and is looking for ways into postseason. The others on the NFL panel last night had blank stares as Whitworth picked the Packers as a viable outsider to sneak in. That’s coming from an LA alumni
Imo it’s a minuscule crowd that wants to believe in the Packers because we weren’t supposed to be here and naturally, it “just don’t fit” when you see 5-6.
 
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I figured that. I agree it would be highly unlikely to win the division.

Im not sure about the odds to make the playoffs but imo (based on schedules) if we beat KC our odds tip to around 55% of making postseason

Being an AFC game though and IF we lose? It’s only a slight drop in postseason probability. The Vikings are on a bye and Seattle has already lost their week 13 matchup on Thursday. So my guess is in that 45% area of postseason factoring SOS.
 

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If we win out and the Lions lose to the Vikings twice, we win the division. But them losing twice to the Vikes is the only way we get the tiebreaker at 11-6. That said, I can't see the Lions winning more than one of their last 4. They look completely dejected and their coach is a fricking moron.
 

Team Ronny

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Wouldn't that be something! After all the talk about no A.R...youngest team in the league..gonna be a bad year..The Green Bay Packers win the division! Then to top it off Lions lose out and don't make the playoffs..that would be AWESOME!
 

gatorpack

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If we win out and the Lions lose to the Vikings twice, we win the division. But them losing twice to the Vikes is the only way we get the tiebreaker at 11-6. That said, I can't see the Lions winning more than one of their last 4. They look completely dejected and their coach is a moron.
Packers and Lions actually have the same division record right now. If they lose one to the Vikings plus one other game, Packers will win division if they win out.
 
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If we win out and the Lions lose to the Vikings twice, we win the division. But them losing twice to the Vikes is the only way we get the tiebreaker at 11-6.
Thanks to that playoff calculator we can see that the Vikings only need to split games IF Detroit gets beat at AT&T (Dallas) and loses to Denver. In that scenario GB and Detroit could tie at 11-6 and we’d be a #3 seed. It’s probably not fair because Dallas or Philly would be the better team but one will be at best a #5 seed.
 
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BrokenArrow

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Packers and Lions actually have the same division record right now. If they lose one to the Vikings plus one other game, Packers will win division if they win out.
Using the NFL playoff machine I couldn't find any other combination where we won the tiebreaker earlier today. Went back to check again and it did as you said here. Hmm... that's good though.
 

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