I'm going to try to blow a few minds here. But I think everyone can see what I'm saying. It's difficult explaining it but I'll try.
The best QBs in the NFL throw to a man before he comes open in his pass route. The average QB does it at times but opts to throw to what he perceives as a receiver who is open when he makes the throw. When you throw to the open man, and he's moving, the ball is often thrown behind them, not to where they will be because the QB's mind processes it in a "now" sense, not in a future based on movement. Think of how often we see Love throw behind his receivers, and I'm not referring to the back shoulder throw. It's quite often.
I hear a lot of announcers referring to it as being protective of the receiver or done because throwing it further out-front invites an INT. I disagree with them more than half the time as I watch the play unfold. I'm seeing a QB who doesn't trust the process of a timing route or one whose mind can't process what the receiver will do under various circumstances as presented by the way the defense plays. I think Love has a problem in trusting the system too often because he's unable to make those reads as the play is developing.
He has the arm and the ability to pin-point those throws but he lacks the trust in being able to do it because of the way they drilled it into his head during his first year as the starter when it came to dealing with reducing his number of INTs.
As a receiver, Romeo Doubs is a technician in running routes. He does it extremely well as some of us understand. But when he does run precise routes and sees that opportunities are blown because Love can't read the field properly, it leads to frustration. He knows in the back of his mind that Love is not connecting with his receivers the way he should. He's opting to throw to the open receiver not the one coming open where the best play actually is.
No matter how many great receivers the Packers trot out on the field with Love, until he trusts the system and let's it loose, we shouldn't expect elite play out of him. The biggest question we need to ask is whether or not it will ever happen, or will the Packers constantly try to "upgrade" their receiving corps in an attempt to deflect the responsibility away from Love. Unless they get Love to make those reads don't expect any more Lombardi Trophies to grace the Packer Hall Of Fame.
This year should be a good growth year from Jordan. His first year he was throwing a yard behind Receivers and there were a couple of games we lost because of it.
In 2024 he started rough. Across his first 3 Starts he posted a combined 56.1% reception rate. Throwing 8 TD’s to 5 INT and pedestrian 87.23% Passer Rating.
Across his next 12 games he threw
17 TD’s to just 6 INT; 64.5% rec rate and a stellar 100.3% Passer rating.
This is 2 years now that he’s clearly improved as the season progressed.
In his last 7 games of both of the 2023,2024 (14 games) seasons combined Love threw for
27 TD’s and 1 INT. Think about that. It’s Premier level QB play. Not HOF level (lack of top volume) but easily Probowl worthy. That was also against some good opponents with several Top 10 Defenses peppered into equation. It’s not like the level of competition fell off. Now I’m not suggesting this is automatic. I’m just pointing out that there is strong evidence to suggest that Jordan Love regularly tends to get in a groove as the season progresses.
What I’m most wanting to see is not Love being perfect TD:INT, but rather finding that “groove” earlier than Week 11. In year 3 one would expect to see that spike in consistent, clean production between games 6-8 area. My contention is this. If you can play a pair of 7 game stretches nearly error free and at Probowl level across your first 2 starting seasons? You can elevate those to longer stretches.
With this Defense he doesn’t need to carry the team anymore. Jordan needs to
1. Get adequate Protection (he did not have that at Cleveland)
2. Limit Costly Mistakes, particularly when we are playing with a TD+ lead into the 4th Quarter, Low scoring etc.
3. Be consistently good sooner in the season.