NFC North 2025

[AmishMafia]

Bears fans are already declaring their season is over.

I went through the math twice and the Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs. They become the earliest playoff elimination in NFL history.

 

[OldSchool101]

I went through the math twice and the Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs. They become the earliest playoff elimination in NFL history.

Seriously though it’s a 12% odds of making the playoffs after an 0-2 start. However imo the odds in our Division are like 50% of that number. I’m not trying to be mean but as I said before season, this isn’t a good time for Chicago to push all their Cap chips in for a SB push.

 

[OldSchool101]

Interesting move by Minnesota. Goes to show that Clock can out value points in the closing minutes. They let Atlanta score a TD vs letting them eat another 2 minutes of gameclock… (40secX3) which would leave just under :90 sec and needing 2 scores. Now they at least have 3:30 left needing 2-scores to tie.

This one is over.

GB 1st Place in the division

 

[Magooch]

They are talking now like Burrow will miss three MONTHS with grade 3 turf toe.
We play Cincy in 3 weeks
(Well I guess technically 4 weeks. 3 games from now for us)

 

[OldSchool101]

They are talking now like Burrow will miss three MONTHS with grade 3 turf toe.
We play Cincy in 3 weeks
(Well I guess technically 4 weeks. 3 games from now for us)

That’s tough. Their schedule of opponents starts with the Vikings next week and covers the entire NFC North division. 4 of their next 7 games are NFC North.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Some of that can be fixed, but some of these are also issues that date all the way back to college, some are new bad habits developed last season...Now Johnson has to try and "fix" these issues - that his predecessor could not (and that his predecessor contributed to) - stuff that is fairly fundamental/basic things AND is trying to install his new offense around this QB...and has a terrible run game. I would not be too optimistic at all right now if I were in Chicago.

I think that whole post was an excellent deep dive into Williams and Chicago.

By the way... that vaunted Bear defense gave up 502 yards today, and Goff threw for 334 and 5 TDs - passer rating of 156, compared to 88 last week against us. Third highest of his career (he's had two perfect games).

Our resident Bears fan only lives about 8 miles from me, I believe, but I haven't been over to his den yet so I don't know exactly where he is. I kinda feel like I oughta drive over and check on the poor guy. I'm sure Ben Johnson was hoping for a much better showing on his return to Detroit.

By the way, elsewhere in the North, JJ McCarthy got shut down cold by the Falcons today - passer rating of 52.08.

 

[Voyageur]

I think that whole post was an excellent deep dive into Williams and Chicago.

By the way... that vaunted Bear defense gave up 502 yards today, and Goff threw for 334 and 5 TDs - passer rating of 156, compared to 88 last week against us. Third highest of his career (he's had two perfect games).

Our resident Bears fan only lives about 8 miles from me, I believe, but I haven't been over to his den yet so I don't know exactly where he is. I kinda feel like I oughta drive over and check on the poor guy. I'm sure Ben Johnson was hoping for a much better showing on his return to Detroit.

By the way, elsewhere in the North, JJ McCarthy got shut down cold by the Falcons today - passer rating of 52.08.

I think the Vikings are finding out that Darnold was more important to the offense than they thought. JJ doesn't impress me in the slightest. They were lucky they played the Bears week one. The way their offense was manhandled and the rush put on JJ pointed out some serious weaknesses that people are going to exploit.

The Bears are not close to being ready to compete for a playoff spot and probably won't be this year. All the hype meant nothing because there really isn't enough talent there to change the course of games. Fans will be screaming for heads to roll within a couple more weeks unless they already are. They need major rebuilding on both sides of the ball no matter what anyone thinks.

Detroit is a solid team. The Packers won't steamroll them in Detroit when we go there. We're going to have to play our "A" game to beat them. The injury bug will be resolved for them by then.

As of now, the Packers may be the best team in the NFC. That can change but as for now, it's the top of the heap.

 

[milani]

Seriously though it’s a 12% odds of making the playoffs after an 0-2 start. However imo the odds in our Division are like 50% of that number. I’m not trying to be mean but as I said before season, this isn’t a good time for Chicago to push all their Cap chips in for a SB push.

That does not forebode
well for KC.

 

[AmishMafia]

Seriously though it’s a 12% odds of making the playoffs after an 0-2 start. However imo the odds in our Division are like 50% of that number. I’m not trying to be mean but as I said before season, this isn’t a good time for Chicago to push all their Cap chips in for a SB push.

No team has ever lost the first 2 games of the season, to division opponents, and then made the playoffs.

 

[XPack]

49ers have started hot and have the easiest schedule. Eagles and Lions cannot be discounted.

We are ahead as of now, but a close pack.

 

[AmishMafia]

49ers have started hot and have the easiest schedule. Eagles and Lions cannot be discounted.

We are ahead as of now, but a close pack.

We are only 2 games in, not a lot of opportunity for any team to distance themselves.

I was hoping the Lions beat the Bears. Proves they don't suck as bad as they looked against us. Maybe it was just a clunker game for them. I think the answer is in between. They aren't as good as they were last year and we have improved.

Our offense is struggling right now. Well, maybe not struggling, but we are playing below our capabilities. Our OLine is in disarray with injuries. It usually took a few games before they were playing their best anyway. A little more time for Love and a little more room in the running lanes for Jacobs and this team will take another step.
With scoring more points and forcing the other team to pass more, and giving our defense more time to rest between series, this team can be even more scary for opposing teams.

 

[tynimiller]

I wanted the Bears to beat the Lions - NFL doesn't do rankings, base seeding on purely standings and the Lions being the better team be nice if Bears slid a W in...that said it is clear the Lions are no slouch like some naive people claimed after week 1.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

I wanted the Bears to beat the Lions - NFL doesn't do rankings, base seeding on purely standings and the Lions being the better team be nice if Bears slid a W in...that said it is clear the Lions are no slouch like some naive people claimed after week 1.

Bears look bad.

Maybe that will change, but for now they look like a train wreck.

 

[Magooch]

I think that whole post was an excellent deep dive into Williams and Chicago.

By the way... that vaunted Bear defense gave up 502 yards today, and Goff threw for 334 and 5 TDs - passer rating of 156, compared to 88 last week against us. Third highest of his career (he's had two perfect games).

Our resident Bears fan only lives about 8 miles from me, I believe, but I haven't been over to his den yet so I don't know exactly where he is. I kinda feel like I oughta drive over and check on the poor guy. I'm sure Ben Johnson was hoping for a much better showing on his return to Detroit.

By the way, elsewhere in the North, JJ McCarthy got shut down cold by the Falcons today - passer rating of 52.08.

One fundamental issue I think they may run into as well is that I'm just not convinced Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are ever going to be a great fit with each other.

Look at Ben Johnson's success with Goff. What kind of qualities did Goff bring to the table for Johnson? He is accurate and places the ball well. He is a great "rhythm" player. He is mechanically sound and has good timing. For my money is an above-average QB, but I wouldn't call him an "elite" one.

Most would probably agree that Caleb Williams is the "higher ceiling" player. But look at the qualities Caleb brings to the table: He's got a big arm, he's great at extending plays, he is a top athlete, he's a great "improv" or off-script player. He can play "hero ball" and make those "circus throws" when flushed out. On the flip side though...IMO a lot of Caleb's weaknesses are precisely the strengths that Goff brings to the table and helped him to mesh well with Johnson's offense: he struggles to work through his progression. He doesn't have good anticipation/timing. He doesn't want to play "scheduled" football with rhythm plays. He is not accurate. And he tends to default to those "hero ball" or "off script" or "circus" plays too easily. So you've got a QB who wants to play fast and loose and a coach who wants his QB to be rhythmic, tight, and precise. Even if Caleb improves in some areas, I'm not sure he will ever fundamentally be the guy who Johnson wants (or has had the best success with, at least) for his offense.

 

[Magooch]

What is also absolutely BAFFLING to me is that the Bears handed out an extension running thru 2029 to Ryan Poles (GM) this past summer. It legitimately felt like they gave an extension based on being the "offseason champs". The roster he has put together is just plain BAD. It feels like it was assembled by a child who keeps getting fixated on new "toys" and little more. They have a nice pass-catching group, but that's it. Every other group is mediocre and even with some nice pass-catchers it feels like there's simply nothing that team does particularly well at any level right now.

Look at this past draft. They drafted TE Colston Loveland #10 overall, and through two games he has been a total non-factor (and TBH at times it feels like Johnson isn't scheming much for him because their line/pass pro can't afford to keep sending the TE on pass routes but that's another issue...). WR Luther Burden (#39) is basically a special teams player so far. OL Ozzy Trapilo has 5 special teams snaps and was a healthy scratch in week 2. DT Shemar Turner (#62) hasn't played at all yet and was also a healthy scratch this past week.
That's four players drafted inside the top-64 picks and none are contributing at all right now.

Go back to last year. You have Caleb taken at #1 of course, and naturally he's getting minutes. WR Rome Odunze at #9 looks like a great player. Past that? OL Kiran Amegadjie (#75) was another healthy scratch this week. Tory Taylor (#122)...is a punter, and a pretty average one at best. DL Austin Booker (#144) had a total of 21 combined tackles last season, and he's on IR.

They made much to-do about reworking their OL, and they still stink. They had a 3rd and 1 and called two consecutive QB sneaks and failed to convert. It was especially ironic as it felt like they really wanted to improve their OL primarily for the sake of giving Caleb more time and a cleaner pocket...but then ask/expect these guys to also be short yardage maulers. I don't think you can always have it both ways...

Ironically, I know many complain each year around draft season that we seem to always invest our draft capital in "boring" picks along the lines. Poles' roster-building in Chicago is like the opposite of that, it's what you'd get if you let fans just pick whatever fun player they wanted. They went out and gave a huge contract to DJ Moore (4 years/110m)...and then turned around and drafted Odunze, Loveland, and Burden.

This is probably all sounding a bit scatterbrained at this point and TBH it probably is, if only for the fact that they have SO many problems right now it's hard to keep track of them all and I'd have absolutely no idea where to even start addressing them.

 

[milani]

Bears look bad.

Maybe that will change, but for now they look like a train wreck.

The have some strengths. They just went up against 2 teams that won 28 games a year ago. Had they opened the season against the Saints and Dolphins and Panthers they would have a few Ws right now. The Packers still have to play them twice. So if they are a wreck I hope they show it.

 

[OldSchool101]

No team has ever lost the first 2 games of the season, to division opponents, and then made the playoffs.

oh im sure that’s true. It was also much harder to qualify pre 2020-2021 so the playoffs are not out if the question for the bears either.

The 2007 Giants started 0-2 and not only made the Playoffs, they Won the Super Bowl. The Giants didn’t need to Win the Division (2nd place) so in their case Division record would’ve been irrelevant.
In 2024, GB lost 5 Division games and made Postseason, so the order of losing the first 2 Division matchups doesn’t negate a Playoff appearance either.
Keep in mind that we have had only 4 seasons played with BOTH
1. A 17 game season
2. A 7 seed Conference playoff spot

Since 2021, We’re starting to see teams like the 2024 Broncos qualify. They started 0-2 in the Conference, then lost 2 of their first 3 Division games starting 5-5. They ended up 3rd in their Division, but qualified for Postseason and Lost to Buffalo opening weekend. THAT is probably the best pathway for Chicago. Scraping back to a 10-7 or 9-8 3rd place North finish and 7th seed.

We all recall the 2024 Packers. Going 1-5 in the Division but qualifying as a 7th seed. Division record was irrelevant they got in on overall picture.
The 2024 Rams, Ravens and Broncos all started 0-2. Then qualified for postseason. Denver’s 3rd place Division finish didn’t prevent them from Playoffs.

While it’s not suggesting it’s good to start 0-2 in the Division, it’s not anywhere near impossible to pull out of that tailspin and qualify. My bigger concern is the fashion in which the Bears lost. Allowing a 50 Burger to Detroit and knowing that Green Bay just embarrassed Detroit should be serious cause for concern. Chicago has a serious uphill battle.

 

[AmishMafia]

What is also absolutely BAFFLING to me is that the Bears handed out an extension running thru 2029 to Ryan Poles (GM) this past summer. It legitimately felt like they gave an extension based on being the "offseason champs". The roster he has put together is just plain BAD. It feels like it was assembled by a child who keeps getting fixated on new "toys" and little more. They have a nice pass-catching group, but that's it. Every other group is mediocre and even with some nice pass-catchers it feels like there's simply nothing that team does particularly well at any level right now.

Look at this past draft. They drafted TE Colston Loveland #10 overall, and through two games he has been a total non-factor (and TBH at times it feels like Johnson isn't scheming much for him because their line/pass pro can't afford to keep sending the TE on pass routes but that's another issue...). WR Luther Burden (#39) is basically a special teams player so far. OL Ozzy Trapilo has 5 special teams snaps and was a healthy scratch in week 2. DT Shemar Turner (#62) hasn't played at all yet and was also a healthy scratch this past week.
That's four players drafted inside the top-64 picks and none are contributing at all right now.

Go back to last year. You have Caleb taken at #1 of course, and naturally he's getting minutes. WR Rome Odunze at #9 looks like a great player. Past that? OL Kiran Amegadjie (#75) was another healthy scratch this week. Tory Taylor (#122)...is a punter, and a pretty average one at best. DL Austin Booker (#144) had a total of 21 combined tackles last season, and he's on IR.

They made much to-do about reworking their OL, and they still stink. They had a 3rd and 1 and called two consecutive QB sneaks and failed to convert. It was especially ironic as it felt like they really wanted to improve their OL primarily for the sake of giving Caleb more time and a cleaner pocket...but then ask/expect these guys to also be short yardage maulers. I don't think you can always have it both ways...

Ironically, I know many complain each year around draft season that we seem to always invest our draft capital in "boring" picks along the lines. Poles' roster-building in Chicago is like the opposite of that, it's what you'd get if you let fans just pick whatever fun player they wanted. They went out and gave a huge contract to DJ Moore (4 years/110m)...and then turned around and drafted Odunze, Loveland, and Burden.

This is probably all sounding a bit scatterbrained at this point and TBH it probably is, if only for the fact that they have SO many problems right now it's hard to keep track of them all and I'd have absolutely no idea where to even start addressing them.

Nobody has ever accused the Bears for being 'to smart for their own good.'

It is not impossible for them to turn it around and have a good season. Caleb can be a great QB, but he isn't quite ready. He has a lot of skill talent around him. Ben Johnson could be a great HC. Both he an Caleb both need to learn their roles. That is likely to take a year or two.

They should have built up their trenches before skill group. Some QBs are NFL ready when they come out, Caleb is not.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nobody has ever accused the Bears for being 'to smart for their own good.'

It is not impossible for them to turn it around and have a good season. Caleb can be a great QB, but he isn't quite ready. He has a lot of skill talent around him. Ben Johnson could be a great HC. Both he an Caleb both need to learn their roles. That is likely to take a year or two.

They should have built up their trenches before skill group. Some QBs are NFL ready when they come out, Caleb is not.

I think GB looks wiser everytime we see a JJ Mcarthy or Caleb Williams suffer a little bit. Our philosophy of Slow rolling skill players is painful requiring significant patience.
Transition into NFL speed and and allowing time for some continuity between OL, QB, WR groups takes time. I’m beginning to believe more and more a QB should stand learn fur 1-2 seasons. It’s almost counter productive to throw a guy to the wolves too early. IMO there’s a danger to their confidence due to lack of preparation that almost backs them up a season. I know it’s counter productive to gaining a year or two of that Rookie season $$, but it’s a cost of doing business.

The magic number if possible is learning under a veteran QB for 1-2 seasons with some mop up duty and maybe a start mixed in there in week 18 etc. Then they start year 3 and get a year to gear up. You can still negotiate their 5th year like GB did, so you’ve still got a QB primed and on cheap $$ for 2 seasons.

 

[Pugger]

Burrows went down for Cincy in the first half. Browning at QB. Wonder if he will be OK to face us in 4 weeks?

Ouch. That turf toe is so bad he is going to require surgery! My big toe hurts just thinking about that...

 

[Pugger]

I think that whole post was an excellent deep dive into Williams and Chicago.

By the way... that vaunted Bear defense gave up 502 yards today, and Goff threw for 334 and 5 TDs - passer rating of 156, compared to 88 last week against us. Third highest of his career (he's had two perfect games).

Our resident Bears fan only lives about 8 miles from me, I believe, but I haven't been over to his den yet so I don't know exactly where he is. I kinda feel like I oughta drive over and check on the poor guy. I'm sure Ben Johnson was hoping for a much better showing on his return to Detroit.

By the way, elsewhere in the North, JJ McCarthy got shut down cold by the Falcons today - passer rating of 52.08.

Yes, both the Chicago and MN games were brutal to watch if you were a fan. Yikes.

 

[formerlybis]

I suspect that when the time comes in December where we play 2 games in 3 weeks, the Bears will have figured some things out. I wish they were on our schedule now. Same with the Vikes who we don't play until late Nov - they'll figure out what McCarthy is good at or move to Wentz.

 

[Voyageur]

Nobody has ever accused the Bears for being 'to smart for their own good.'

It is not impossible for them to turn it around and have a good season. Caleb can be a great QB, but he isn't quite ready. He has a lot of skill talent around him. Ben Johnson could be a great HC. Both he an Caleb both need to learn their roles. That is likely to take a year or two.

They should have built up their trenches before skill group. Some QBs are NFL ready when they come out, Caleb is not.

The Bears have had 5 offensive coordinators since 2018. Each time the name changes, so does the offense. Players are drafted to fill specific needs within an OC's schemes and then the OC is gone and way too many players end up as square pegs trying to fill round holes. This goes back on Poles, and the fact the Bears were stupid enough to believe this guy is a football guru who can develop a winning organization. He's where the changes should have started, and maybe even up with the President, who was dumb enough to believe this guy is something special.

If you look at winning programs, they have a consistency in their coaching staffs at least at the top, and when coordinators are changed, the incoming candidates are well versed in the existing offense and defense employed and do not try to install wholesale changes.

Even Jeff Haley, the Packers defensive coordinator acknowledged when he took the job that you need to be able to build on the players you've already got in house because you can't change all of them overnight to fit a completely new system. Haley is successful to this point because he recognizes that you need to lean on the abilities that each player has and blend it into a total package.

As long as the Bears and Vikings don't understand that they'll continue to shoot themselves in the foot.

 

[Firethorn1001]

I suspect that when the time comes in December where we play 2 games in 3 weeks, the Bears will have figured some things out. I wish they were on our schedule now. Same with the Vikes who we don't play until late Nov - they'll figure out what McCarthy is good at or move to Wentz.

Not a knock on you, but I love how every team in the NFL can improve consistently (better in the offseason, every draft hits, every FA hits, every coaching moves hits) while the Packers can do absolutely nothing other than stay static or regress.

In other words, the Packers can figure some things out too in particular on the offensive side.

 

[XPack]

Temperance is good and fine, but it should not stop us from being optimistic. We did good against Divisional and Conference opponents who finished high last season and that is no mean feat.

In the short term, I'm optimistic about the next 5 games, Browns are struggling and we've recently done well vs the inconsistent Cowboys. If Burrow doesn't return, our job vs Bengals will be a bit easier. Cardinals and Steelers after that are winnable games too.

We should get the Ws in place as we prepare for the Eagles, Giants, Vikings, Lions, Bears run-in at November.