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Keys to Sunday

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by warhawk, Nov 16, 2006.

  1. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    I have read a lot of the "experts" picks and quotes and, for one, am not buying it.

    Belichick has curiously gone away from the run against two teams not so great in that department and lost both times.

    I believe he has figured out that his WR's are fairly mediocre and will try to run it more this week. His RB's carried them earlier in the year. Plus it's November in Green Bay. Not the time to rely on a passing game that hasn't done much lately.

    I also think he is smarter than to buy into the Packs "last in pass defense" stats that everyone wants to bring up in picking the Pats. Since converting to the 3-3-5 on passing downs we have gotten much better there. Our LB's are really starting to flourish in their roles.

    Here are the keys to victory:

    1) No red-zone turnovers or TO's for a score. We need some kind of points every time we get down there.

    2) Do not get down early. This is why the Pats have been successful on the road this year and has helped their run defense totals greatly.

    3) Get them in 3rd down passing situations. We have been good there and it would mean we have done the job against the run.

    4) No freebee touchdowns like the last two weeks. We cannot afford to GIVE a touchdown away to a good team. I will throw up if I see our guys looking over their right shoulder and seeing a receiver wide open down the sidelines AGAIN!

    5) Win Time of Possession. If we can run it (the Pats had trouble with this
    against Denver's zone blocking scheme) I believe Brett will be able to make some big plays against their banged up defensive backfield with the play action.

    6) Moll holds his own and MM continues to make the right adjustments to what Belichick throws at us.

    7) the Pat's third string RG does not. Can you spell A-J H-A-W-K? All the talk has been on how Belichick will exploit Taushers absence. How about what we do with this guy?

    I am convinced Belichick will go back to what got them six wins. Running the ball. If we come up big there and make Brady throw it they have shown they struggle to win. He will not go away from the run three weeks in row unless we take a lead that forces him to, or, we flat outplay them against it.
     
  2. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    In regards to #2 above.

    The Pats success on the road has resulted from getting up big early.

    Vs. Vikes 17-0 at the half

    vs. Jets 17-0 at the half

    vs. Buffalo 21-3 at the half

    vs Cincy 14-6 at the half (not so big but winning)

    Let's see how they do on the road when they are losing at the half for once!

    Go Pack!
     
  3. agopackgo4

    agopackgo4 Cheesehead

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    Speaking of "no easy TDs" I wouldnt count on it. My guess is that if Brady see's a weakness in our DB's he is going to exploit it. Unlike the Vikings did last week. And we definitly have weaknesses.
     
  4. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    I don't think it is something they can "see" as much as something they hope they can do to create a mix up. They are never going to know if we are going to blow a coverage assignment but can try to run some stuff that they have seen which created a blown coverage in the past.

    If we do blow a coverage you can count on Brady taking advantage of it.

    As far as their WR's running around open out there in general I doubt that will happen. That's where we have gotten better.

    As long as everybody back there stays on the same page they can prevent that easy score. My point is we can't just give them one this way where once a game someone is running wide open down there.

    Just giving NE seven would not be good. Turnovers killed us in the Buffalo game but that blown coverage TD hurt us bad in that game. We don't do it often but once may be to much against the Pats.
     
  5. dxbfan

    dxbfan Cheesehead

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    Absolutely. I think that more than the Moll vs. Seymour match up, which can be addressed through extra help, the greater challenge is going to be Brady vs. secondary, which we dont seem to to know how to address.
     
  6. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    This is sort of what went on in Miami...it turned out okay :)

    I found this as well on jsonline and was not aware of this..


    "One thing they'll do is they'll study the opponent, look at you and they'll try to devise things that take advantage of what they think your weaknesses are," said quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, who faced the Patriots four times in the past two years as Buffalo's offensive coordinator.
    "You could get a completely different look one week than you get the next week."


    That HAS to help MM and the staff with Tom's knowledge of BB system
     
  7. dxbfan

    dxbfan Cheesehead

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    Probably will, which is why I think we'll hold up okay on the O line. Not so sure about the secondary though.
     
  8. BlueMoose

    BlueMoose Cheesehead

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    And a little luck won't hurt;).
     
  9. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    Here' how I see it.

    Belichick went into the Vikes game knowing their run "D" was for real. So, even though the run is what had won games up to that point, he went to the four wide to beat them.

    It worked great. The Pat's smoked 'em.

    Belichick is thinking "geez, we are REALLY GOOD at this".

    Why else would he pass SO MUCH against the Colts and Jets who are NOT great against the run?

    Why do you think Seymour was grumbling so much about NE being "outcoached" after the Jets game. Sure, part of it was he felt he should have been playing more. But they had gone away from the run too.

    But had Belichick been suckered into believing his WR's were better than they really are? I believe maybe so.

    Now he has to game plan the Pack and decide if he wants to attack with the pass again (which is becoming very unpopular out there in the Northeast) or go back to their bread and butter and run the ball.

    I, for one, will be extremely surprised if we don't see them tucking it in a RB's arms a whole bunch on Sunday.
     
  10. Cory

    Cory Cheesehead

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    I HOPE they run the ball. Or at least try to quite often on sunday. I think we can shut down their run game. Or at least keep it from being effective.
     
  11. Greg C.

    Greg C. Cheesehead

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    Excellent thread. Thanks for getting it started, warhawk. I think our tight ends will play a major role, but as blockers rather than receivers. There will be lots of max protection. Driver and Driver #2 (Greg Jennings) are good at going over the middle, so maybe the Pack can exploit the absence of Rodney Harrison, which was a huge loss for the Patriots. I hope the Packers can run the ball well, and they will keep trying, but I have a feeling they will need to win it through the air.

    On defense, I like our chances against the run. The Packers have been consistently good against the run this season. Has anyone had a big rushing day against the Packers yet? Maybe Kevin Jones of the Lions, but I can't think of any others. So I hope they try to run. If they pass a lot, who knows what will happen because our safeties are so awful. They could kill us with crossing routes and stuff like that.

    But as I've said in another thread, special teams are what scare me. Our kick coverage team has had huge lapses in the last two games (one of which was cancelled out by a borderline penalty), and both our kick and punt return teams have had horrible blocking. It's been just brutal watching Woodson trying to get anything going on punt returns. It's like he's running straight into a tornado. But if the special teams can play them even, I like our chances.
     
  12. all about da packers

    all about da packers Cheesehead

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    Not to come off as rude, but why are people assuming Belichick is the one calling the plays? As far as I recall, Josh McDaniels was the OC and one responsible to the O playcalling.

    He is a young OC, and more importantly a QB coach. I think he (McDaniels) failed to realize that Brady can only do much, the bias resulting from working with Brady and watching him develop into a star.

    I think Belichick will obviously talk to him to get back to doing the basics, and you will see more of a run the ball and control time of possesion style of play.

    As for our secondary, I don't expect much. If they can't sort out "communication problems" in 14 weeks thus far, they aren't going to do it in one week. There is a huge problem somewhere along the starting 11 of the D, and we need to sort it out.

    I look for Belichick to blitz alot. Simple premise: bring more than they can block. If Belichick can get the extra protection to focus on picking up the blizters, the O-line (young interrior and RT) may be left to handle the D-Line alone which might lead to more pressure/not as many lanes open to run to.

    At the end of the day, McCarthy is going to have to make the Packers want to win. They have to tough it out, grind out a win. Given that this is a young team, that is easier said than done.
     
  13. Cory

    Cory Cheesehead

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    I thought BB took over the playcalling after Weis left? That's what was said at least. It was a big story on how "BB isn't replacing Charlie Weis"...yadda yadda. Who knows and who cares because no matter what he's obviously involved.

    People are forgetting that these "breakdowns" in communication are becoming less and less and less frequent as the season goes on. Does anyone else notice this or is it just me? So I do believe it can be fixed and if schott wants to keep his job theyll figure it out.

    If BB blitzes alot it will be to his own demise, IMO. Our oline is young, but they will be ready as they have been for most of the season. Don't underestimate philbin and Jags. Favre has more options at the LOS this season and isn't an easy QB to confuse as he has been in the league so long. He can get the packers out of bad plays at the LOS as well as know where he wants to go with the ball right away.
     
  14. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    I think we can all count on the fact that the game plan will come from Belichick and this is what I am getting at about what direction they take.

    Whoever calls the plays is going with the plan BB creates for this game.

    Cory, I agree that the breakdowns are fewer and the "D" is much more solid through out an entire game but we still gave up one easy score each of the last two weeks.

    I think it's key we don't just give NE seven this week.

    I hope it is our running attack that is successful Sunday. NE has jumped out to such large leads in many games that the opposing teams run offense has had to be abandoned for the most part.

    Denver ran it well against them. That's encouraging for us. Last week Seymour got knocked back consistantly early on the Jet's first scoring drive. He got fewer reps after that and was not happy about it.

    I agree with Cory that our "D" has been much more solid and can be directly tracked to getting more consistant pressure on the QB. Ever since we went away from that dime we have been way better.

    Just that one screw up a game that has allowed an easy TD the last couple of weeks. We do not need to give a team like NE seven. Just hand it to them.

    I also think MM has proven he can play chess with anyone. BB will certainly try to create looks we haven't seen before. I think it's a great point by Cory that putting the final decision in Brett's hand at the LOS has proven to work. More often than not he makes a positive play out of a blitz.

    As Greg C. pointed out we have to get the ST's on track again. I think a few guys have been nicked up there. Hopefully Hodge can go. Blackmon too. They have helped there. We miss Fergy here more than at WR. He was good on ST's.

    Hopefully we can run the ball like Denver did against them. That will open up a big play opportunity against their banged up DB's.
     
  15. digsthepack

    digsthepack Cheesehead

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    My money says Greg Jennings will be THE difference maker on offense. They are gonna load up to stop DD and Jennings has the moves/savvy to break open with regularity under that set of circumstances.

    On defense....let's just say that if Brady is hurting...our D-line/backers WILL get to him and make him think about the next hit.
     
  16. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I would think BB and staff know about Jennings,and MIGHT have some sort of scheme for him but the one that might sneak up on them is Martin ( David)


    Interesting!!!

    Favre, one of the few veterans on the NFL's youngest roster, has been the biggest reason behind the Packers' improved play. He has thrown two interceptions in his last five games, his best stretch in four years, and is on pace to throw a career-low 12 picks.
     
  17. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    Not enough has been said or enough credit given BF for the decisions he has made at the line of scrimmage. Whatever BB has cooked up will be recognized by Favre at the line. He will get the boys set up to do the job from there. MM's three play option scheme he gives Favre has worked really well.

    As I pointed out previously they are down to their 3rd team RG. I think they have more to be worried about in protecting Brady than we do Favre. Our LB's are getting very comfortable when asked to bring pressure.
     
  18. all about da packers

    all about da packers Cheesehead

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    ^ Excellent posts there about the Favre point LT and warhawk.

    That is a very astute point, something that is overlooked too often.

    As for the key player, I'd say it will be Ahman. 132 yards rushing, 3 TDs. :)
     
  19. warhawk

    warhawk Cheesehead

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    I believe we can run it as well. Not many teams get big leads early on the road which would prohibit the run more than anything else. As long as we're not too far behind MM will keep pounding it. By the second half we should see AG in NE's backfield.
     
  20. Cory

    Cory Cheesehead

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    Gotta remember guys. NE's team and fans are NOT looking at this as an easy W. They hare their concerns about the Pack right now.
     
  21. mike_donnelly

    mike_donnelly Cheesehead

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    we need to get guys involved who haven't been performing. Yes, we do know that Kampman, Favre, Driver can get the job done, but if we want to be the best we need performance from Harris, Franks and others.
     
  22. agopackgo4

    agopackgo4 Cheesehead

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    you are comapring the Pats to the Dolphins??
     
  23. Greg C.

    Greg C. Cheesehead

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    That one made me scratch my head at first too. Then I took a longer look at longtimefan's post and realized that he was not comparing the Pats to the Dolphins. Instead, he was referring specifically to something the two games have in common: a rookie tackle having to block a really good DE. Colledge got off to a rough start against Jason Taylor but then settled down, so he's thinking that maybe Moll can do the same against Richard Seymour.
     

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