Josh Jones at ILB?

[Deleted member 6794]

The point remains, if not quite as extreme as in my erroneous calculation: how do you justify the following relative valuations?:

sack: 1.0
hit: 0.75
hurry: 0.75

Just because PFF says so when it seems so counter intuitive?

Sacks have a higher relative value than that.

It stands to reason that a hit = hurry + contact. How does no value accrue to whacking the QB vs. not?

While I believe that PFF's metric doesn't present a realistic evaluation of sacks, hits and hurries it seems you undervalue pressure to a certain degree.

 

[HardRightEdge]

While I believe that PFF's metric doesn't present a realistic evaluation of sacks, hits and hurries it seems you undervalue pressure to a certain degree.

Pressure = sacks + hits + hurries

Perhaps you meant to say that I undervalue hurries, because I sure don't undervalue sacks, which should be obvious from the preceding posts, and I certainly value hitting the QB more than many (including the league) would be willing to admit.

Maybe I do undervalue hurries, but I'm pretty darn sure PFF overvalues them relative to sacks and hits.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

Pressures include sacks, hits and hurries. Perhaps you meant to say that I undervalue hurries, because I sure don't undervalue sacks and I see value in hitting the QB that many (including the league) would prefer not to admit.

Maybe I do undervalue hurries, but I'm pretty darn sure PFF overvalues them relative to sacks and hits.

Pressures are overvalued on GB because we all have no faith that the opposing QB won't complete a big pass against our horrific secondary unless he goes down with the ball in his hands.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Pressures are overvalued on GB because we all have no faith that the opposing QB won't complete a big pass against our horrific secondary unless he goes down with the ball in his hands.

You seem to be saying Packer fans overvalue sacks relative to the other pressure plays because they have no faith that a hit or hurry would do any good.

I come at this particular issue from a general football perspective rather than focusing on the performance of one very bad secondary in one particular year.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

You seem to be saying Packer fans overvalue sacks, not pressures, because they have no faith that a hit or hurry would do any good.

I come at this particular issue from a general football perspective rather than focusing on the performance of one very bad secondary in one particular year.

I meant overvalued by PFF as it pertains to GB. We only value sacks. If doesn't matter if the QB is feeling pressure if we have Gunter matched up in man coverage with the likes of someone like Julio Jones.

 

[gbgary]

sapp and charles hailey wouldn't be in the hof if it weren't for hurries and hits. they weren't big sack guys. a lot of times someone else ends up with the sack from your hit or hurry.

 

[brandon2348]

I would take consistent pressure over the occasional sack any day which is what we have gotten with Matthews lately of the latter.

Obviously I like sacks but constant pressure gets the offense out of rhythm and disrupts timing. Gets most QB's off there spot. In order to accomplish this effectively you have to be able push the pocket up the middle which makes things much easier for the edge guys. If you can't push the middle the edge guys will be hit and miss.

 

[HardRightEdge]

sapp and charles hailey wouldn't be in the hof if it weren't for hurries and hits. they weren't big sack guys. a lot of times someone else ends up with the sack from your hit or hurry.

I like hits.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I would take consistent pressure over the occasional sack any day which is what we have gotten with Matthews lately of the latter.

Obviously I like sacks but constant pressure gets the offense out of rhythm and disrupts timing. Gets most QB's off there spot. In order to accomplish this effectively you have to be able push the pocket up the middle which makes things much easier for the edge guys. If you can't push the middle the edge guys will be hit and miss.

Most guys with a lot of sacks don't just stumble their way into them. They also get plenty of pressures. And the argument that the guys on the interior have absolutely anything to do with an OLB rushing the passer makes no sense whatsoever. Who are the guys on the inside helping Khalil Mack to get to the QB?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I would take consistent pressure over the occasional sack any day which is what we have gotten with Matthews lately of the latter.

Pressures = sacks + hits + hurries

I think you meant you'd prefer consistent hits and hurries over the occasional sack.

Regardless, that was not the question put before the court.

The question before the court is: Are 4 hurries of equal value to 3 sacks? PFF thinks so. That equivalency is embedded in their pass rushing and pass blocking scores.

 

[brandon2348]

Pressures = sacks + hits + hurries

I think you meant you'd prefer consistent hits and hurries over the occasional sack.

Regardless, that was not the question put before the court.

The question before the court is: Are 4 hurries of equal value to 3 sacks? PFF thinks so. That equivalency is embedded in their pass rushing and pass blocking scores.

Yeah "hits and hurries".

I think it is a real difficult thing to evaluate on an individual basis because there are just so many variables (position, coverage, scheme etc) but I think 4 to 3 is a tad high ratio and I would probably go 4-2 just because a sack leads to a definite final outcome.

 

[brandon2348]

Most guys with a lot of sacks don't just stumble their way into them. They also get plenty of pressures. And the argument that the guys on the interior have absolutely anything to do with an OLB rushing the passer makes no sense whatsoever. Who are the guys on the inside helping Khalil Mack to get to the QB?

It's ridiculous to think that pressure up the middle doesn't help the edge guys. You mention "Khalil Mack" who is one of the games premiere edge rushers. How many teams have a "Khalil Mack" type player? We certainly don't and most other teams don't either. Its not as simple as just getting a "Khalil Mack" cause they are hard to attain.

Go look at the 2012-13 Seahawks tape and then come back and tell me pressure up the middle dosen't help. The Seahawks play a 4-3 scheme and pressure up the middle makes or breaks that whole defense. Lately they have been breaking more with not as much success in this area.

Pushing the pocket is everything.

 

[thequick12]

josh jones was working with the safeties today during otas. he was covering haha clinton dix in the slot and blitzing on every play i watched except one in which he made a mistake and covered ha down the field when he was supposed to blitz. safeties coach darren perry had him run the play again

 

[OldSchool101]

I would take consistent pressure over the occasional sack any day which is what we have gotten with Matthews lately of the latter.

Obviously I like sacks but constant pressure gets the offense out of rhythm and disrupts timing. Gets most QB's off there spot. In order to accomplish this effectively you have to be able push the pocket up the middle which makes things much easier for the edge guys. If you can't push the middle the edge guys will be hit and miss.

The act of disrupting timing is somewhat non-quantitative, but yet is arguably one of the most qualitative facets that affect a passers performance. One of the things I've noticed we've generally gotten away from, that was a large part of our success with past Defenses, is having a Corner(s) or Safety who possesses the size, ability and speed to disrupt timing. Guys like Leroy and Charles were masters at reading, reacting and disruption. It's time to get back to that philosophy and I believe it's no coincidence that Josh Jones possesses some 0f those same traits. Great Defenses have to have an Offensive mentality, meaning they need to attack Offenses and attack the ball like it was theirs. We played last year like we were defending, not attacking (and even slow at that)
Speed was an obvious goal this draft and we were lacking without Shields. We just got significantly faster on this Defense so it will be interesting to see what Dom can do to take us to the next level and finally, once again, set the tone and dictate rather than be dictated to.
It will not take an elite Defense to win a Championship this year with AR12 and all his weaponry. The chances of us being elite this year are zilch. It will take an improving (top 12 Defense or so) with an opportunistic mindset and a renewed focus to put us over the top. BTW that goes especially for the D position coaches.

 

[brandon2348]

The act of disrupting timing is somewhat non-quantitative, but yet is arguably one of the most qualitative facets that affect a passers performance. One of the things I've noticed we've generally gotten away from, that was a large part of our success with past Defenses, is having a Corner(s) or Safety who possesses the size, ability and speed to disrupt timing. Guys like Leroy and Charles were masters at reading, reacting and disruption. It's time to get back to that philosophy and I believe it's no coincidence that Josh Jones possesses some 0f those same traits. Great Defenses have to have an Offensive mentality, meaning they need to attack Offenses and attack the ball like it was theirs. We played last year like we were defending, not attacking (and even slow at that)
Speed was an obvious goal this draft and we were lacking without Shields. We just got significantly faster on this Defense so it will be interesting to see what Dom can do to take us to the next level and finally, once again, set the tone and dictate rather than be dictated to.
It will not take an elite Defense to win a Championship this year with AR12 and all his weaponry. The chances of us being elite this year are zilch. It will take an improving (top 12 Defense or so) with an opportunistic mindset and a renewed focus to put us over the top. BTW that goes especially for the D position coaches.

I've been preaching for speed in the middle of the defense for what seems years now. I actually call it "speed with an attitude". Thompson is finally doing it from the inside out rather then outside in. You look at Clark, Jones and Adams and these are all guys that fit the mold. I like long fast corners with this approach as well.

Just gotta hope Ted isn't a couple years late.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Pressure = sacks + hits + hurries

Perhaps you meant to say that I undervalue hurries, because I sure don't undervalue sacks, which should be obvious from the preceding posts, and I certainly value hitting the QB more than many (including the league) would be willing to admit.

Once again, passer rating significantly drops by applying pressure on quarterbacks. That number obviously doesn't include sacks as the quarterback doesn't throw the ball on that plays.

As I've mentioned repeatedly I agree that PFF puts too much value on hits and hurries but I would prefer to have a defense capable of constantly putting pressure on opposing QBs even without getting a high number of sacks over a defense like the Packers one last season which finished within the top 10 in sacks but hardly had any other pressures.

And the argument that the guys on the interior have absolutely anything to do with an OLB rushing the passer makes no sense whatsoever.

There's absolutely zero doubt that edge rushers hugely benefit from interior defensive linemen pushing the pocket.

It will not take an elite Defense to win a Championship this year with AR12 and all his weaponry. The chances of us being elite this year are zilch. It will take an improving (top 12 Defense or so) with an opportunistic mindset and a renewed focus to put us over the top.

While I agree that it doesn't take an elite defense for the Packers to win a championship I doubt the unit will improve enough to finish next season withon the top 12 in points allowed.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

A sack also entails loss of yards which you did not mention. That's critical.

And when you get down to it, a hit is a hurry + QB contact. There's an obvious value add, right? Or maybe the QB didn't see you coming, holds his spot, and wasn't hurried at all. All the better. You're more likely to get wounded duck if you hit the guy than if you merely "hurry" him.

I'd like to see "hit" vs. "hurry" stats to know if what seems intuitively obvious is borne out in numbers. Also, I'm more interested in what a QB does immediately after a hit rather than before.

We also have to ask the question, "what the hell constitutes a "hurry" in the first place?" I'd like to see clips of 10 borderline calls, 5 that counted as hurries and 5 that didn't, to even know what they are counting.

Hits and hurries might generate INTs; sacks also might generate fumbles. Stats are needed to reverse what would be intuitive.

I see a lot of counter intuitive scoring and a black box.

Because the hits and hurries lead to bad passes which lead to INTs far more often than sacks lead to fumbles. QB rating falls off a cliff when a QB is under pressure. Yes, sacks are more notable and are a certain loss of down but a bad pass, while higher variance in outcome, has a higher chance of leading to a much better outcome for the defense (e.g., change of possession).

You can dislike the stat all you want but evidence points that it matters a great deal and carries over from season to season. Remember 2011 when Clay had 6 sacks but a huge amount of hits and hurries? Turns out that the hits and hurries were far more predictive of his ability than the sacks. Same thing holds true for most players.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Because the hits and hurries lead to bad passes which lead to INTs far more often than sacks lead to fumbles.

I like hits. My bone of contention is chiefly with how PFF values hurries relative to sacks and hits, though I think there the 1.00:0.75 valuation ratio of sacks to hits understates sack value.

As to your statement, are you sure hurries lead to more turnovers than sacks (i.e., the strip sack) on a per incident basis in measuring the relative valuation of the plays? I'm not and in fact I doubt it.

Forced fumbles is a stat that is not given much credit because of the situational oddity. An INT is definitively a turnover to be credited to a single player. A forced fumble may not result in a turnover and the guy forcing it is generally not in position to recover it. I think there's a tendency to think of the recovery, and therefore the turnover, as matter of serendipity, and since the turnover cannot be attributed to a single player.

Using ESPN's stats, the league in aggregate forced 483 fumbles last season with 285 recovered for a 59% recovery rate.
While the recovery may be a matter of serendipity in terms of the recovering player being in the right place at the right time, the guy forcing the fumble has made an impactful play 59% of the time, and that ain't serendipity. On balance, a forced fumble is worth more than half of an INT.

Here's another question. When a defender leaps at the line and tips a ball does PFF credit that as a "hurry" when he didn't actually hurry anything? I don't know, but it strikes me as a whole other category of defensive play (pass rusher passes defended) just as strip sacks should be different category. Some guys have a knack for such plays, others do not.

There's something interesting in the following example of PFF pass rusher ratings. This one presents a ranking of their top 25 pass rushers from "8 months ago". While not dating web pages is a digressionary pet peeve of mine, we can infer from the Chandler Jones notes that this data is through week 7 of the 2016 season:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-the-nfls-top-25-pass-rushers/

The impact of strip sacks is mentioned once under Von Miller's write-up. This is evidently a subjective observation because the value of the strip is not reflected in the numerical rankings because a sack is, well, just a sack in the player scoring world according to PFF.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

Because the hits and hurries lead to bad passes which lead to INTs far more often than sacks lead to fumbles. QB rating falls off a cliff when a QB is under pressure. Yes, sacks are more notable and are a certain loss of down but a bad pass, while higher variance in outcome, has a higher chance of leading to a much better outcome for the defense (e.g., change of possession).

You can dislike the stat all you want but evidence points that it matters a great deal and carries over from season to season. Remember 2011 when Clay had 6 sacks but a huge amount of hits and hurries? Turns out that the hits and hurries were far more predictive of his ability than the sacks. Same thing holds true for most players.

There have also been countless TDs thrown and big plays achieved by QBs under pressure. There has never been a TD thrown, or a single yard gained by a QB who has been sacked. They are drive killers on most occasions, and though there's no chance an INT will be thrown, there's a huge possibility that an unaware QB will fumble the ball when hit, which happens all the time.

Pressures are great, but the impact can't be compared to a sack. From an individual perspective, I don't disagree with PFF's point system for pressures, I'm just a bit suspicious when certain players covert such a low number of them into sacks. But as for arguing that a pressure can possibly have more value than a sack, that's a bit silly.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Once again, passer rating significantly drops by applying pressure on quarterbacks. That number obviously doesn't include sacks as the quarterback doesn't throw the ball on that plays.

I know. You mentioned the 60-some passer rating under "pressure". And as I noted earlier, by definition, that passer rating is limited to hits and hurries. Sacks cannot be included by definition since the ball was not thrown.

Following on an earlier exchange, how do you get to equivalency of sacks to hit/hurry passer rating? Let's look at a couple of examples.

Let's say you generate 40 sacks as the Packers did last season. And lets say, theoretically, all of those sacks were for zero yards with no strip recoveries. That's theoretical because if they were for zero yards they'd not be credited as sacks, but that's not relevant to the point.

In that case the, the passer rating equivalent would be 40, i.e., the same as a QB going 0-40 with no INTs and, of course, no yards or TDs.

If they were for negative yards in the aggregate, which of course they must be, the passer rating is still 40; the passer rating is designed for some meaningful number of throws and does not contemplate a passer having net negative yards. Regardless, the lost yards create an equivalency of less than a 40 passer rating in their value.

Further, if you generate just one strip sack recovery out of those 40 sacks, considering it an INT equivalent, then the equivalent passer rating drops to 29. Two strip sack recoveries...it drops to 19. And, again, that includes zero credit for the negative yards in those 40 sacks.

 

[PackFan2]

Thought this was gonna be some info on Josh Jones performance thus far as a linebacker but all I'm reading bout is hits, hurries and sacks. Hehe..

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here's perhaps the most troubling thing about PFF's pass rush (and pass blocking) stats:

Regardless of how they are weighted, does anybody see anything peculiar in their relative weights:

Sack: 1.00
Hit: 0.75
Hurry: 0.75

It's the round numbers!

We would like to think these weightings are based on a detailed study of historical outcomes of the respective plays and their relative impacts. if that were the case, wouldn't we expect to see ratios that look something like: 1.00:0.76:0.74 or some other set that shows some odd number differentiation? Yes we would.

While they may do a very credible job evaluating "every player on every play", that says absolutely nothing about the grading model. It has the look of something thrown against the wall during a conference room lunch meeting.

 

[jakemillar]

Kind of jumping in on the convo here, but I feel like some may be undervaluing the effect of a "QB hurry" on 85% of QBs in the NFL. Guys like Rodgers, Stafford, Big Ben, are less effected by a hurry because they're able to adjust their launch angles to compensate for the rush their seeing, wherever it may be coming from.

Someone like Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco, who are very robotic in movement & throwing motion, more rhythm reliant passers, are effected by any level of a collapsing pocket much more.

The PFF "0.75" value for hits & hurries is one of many arbitrary numbers I feel they gather to grade players which always has me not being as sold as most in terms of a players PFF grade being the end all be all.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Thought this was gonna be some info on Josh Jones performance thus far as a linebacker but all I'm reading bout is hits, hurries and sacks. Hehe..

That's just the way it goes sometimes. Actually all of the time once a thread gets to a critical mass of posts. Then the mods arbitrarily shut down some and let others run.

Look on the bright side. You, as a literate individual, have at your disposal one of the underappreciated powers of the internet age: "The Power of Skimming".

 

[HardRightEdge]

The PFF "0.75" value for hits & hurries is one of many arbitrary numbers I feel they gather to grade players which always has me not being as sold as most in terms of a players PFF grade being the end all be all.

Exactly.

Now, I'm not going to claim the PFF distortions disqualify Watt, Miller and Mack as elite pass rushers. That would be foolish. By my lights Mack's 5 forced fumbles might just supplement his elite pass rush rating, and Miller's 3 might not detract. I say "might" because I don't know how many of those forced fumbles were on sacks vs. run plays, but the numbers do suggest a facility.

However, Irvin and Beasly led the league in forced fumbles with 6 each. How many were on sacks? Some one imagines, but regardless forcing a fumble is not factored into PFFs ratings.

Carlos Dunlap had a remarkable 15 passes defended, 13th. in the league behind 12 DBs. How many of those were on unhurried jumps at the line? Are those counted? And even if these are included in hurries, wouldn't PDs, i.e., a tipped ball, likely lead better defensive outcomes than an ordinary hurry where neither the QB nor the ball is touched?

My general point is that I'm not convinced that the 15th. rated pass rusher might not actually be the 5th. best under a more scientifically constructed scoring model. We can extend that to pass blocker ratings.