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Interesting Theory Shared With A Friend...

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by tynimiller, Apr 15, 2021.

  1. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Could Rodgers cost us Jaire or Davante?

    Was busy working away when a text came through the other night with that being all it said. I was intrigued and shot back "explain".

    Condensed down we all know there is just not a world where fiscally we will be able to give Jaire and Adams both what they deserve, while also having what was up until recently the highest paid LT and one of the most expensive QBs after 2021 season. You're talking over in 2022 if we resigned both - Rodgers, Bahk, Zadarius, Clark alone have a $111M cap hit add in what another $25-$40M hit with both Jaire and Adams depending on structure....we are looking at dang near if not over $150M in literally 6 players.

    If Rodgers has another 2020 level type campaign this team will no doubt lose one of the three; Rodgers, Adams and Jaire.


    Sucks. I mean everyone is focused on the future of Rodgers, but many don't realize or haven't realized his future controls the future of arguably the best CB and WR the league has ATM.

    No matter where you sit on this team and how you feel the future should go or what decisions should be made. Embrace 2021 Green Bay fans, because post 2021 season is going to be much more difficult than this year was zero doubt in my mind.
     
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  2. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I disagree with that completely. The team can structure contracts and deals in such a fashion to keep all three of those guys if they want to. As an example, the top-6 contracts next year for the Chiefs total $142M. As a further example if the Packers decide to let Adams go because they would rather keep Lowry, Turner, and Lewis (combined 2022 cap hit of ~20.8M) then they're certifiably insane (and that's not even discussing the necessary restructure of Big Z's contract which has a 2022 cap hit of $28M). Unless Green Bay decides it's Jordan Love time, this team is going to be very top heavy but I don't see any realistic scenario where Adams and Jaire aren't Packers going forward.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2021
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  3. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I mean you can move pieces and money hits for sure, but kicking can down the road will always eventually catch up to a team and force a stripping. It is going to be a year of tough decisions for sure after 2021 is done though.

    Doing that though also has a trickle impact.....what money is left to sign a WR back from Lazard/MVS/EQSB....Tonyan decision...
     
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  4. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Yes, and none of the guys you listed there are worth losing Adams or Jaire over. There is definitely a trickle down effect and that's why the team needs to be drafting players that can take the place of the lower paid guys on the roster. I'm glad the Packers brought back Aaron Jones but it now doesn't seem to make much sense that they drafted a RB in the second round when they could obviously use that help at other positions more. I LIKE Dillon, but using a second round pick on a guy who is going to be a backup for 75% of his rookie deal isn't a method of team building I agree with.
     
  5. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    I am not saying you're wrong, in any way... by that reasoning it made no sense bringing Preston Smith back (or not cutting him) with 1st rounder Rashan Gary waiting in the wings, also. With young guys on rookie contracts, expected to play a large role those 2 should be gone with that cap $ used on new rookie pool. There are still another move required to free-up the estimated minimum $2.6Mil (if Gute stays @ #29, more if he trades up).
     
  6. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I remember reading similar things about the fact that people are so focused on the 2021 cap, they don't realize just what kind of cap hell the Packers could be in for 2022. Those articles focused on the top 6 salaries and what they look like on the cap.

    All this moving your bills out into the future comes at a cost, not having enough cap space to put them under, in the future.

    A lot of this will depend on the 2021 season and what the NFL decides to do with the 2022 cap and eventually the 23.

    But for those who think its as easy as "just keep pushing the money out", it isn't. The Packers were in great shape until Covid and 2020/21 derailed their pretty sound financial plan. Nobody knows what 2022 or 23 is going to look like and I think that, as well as not being fully sure on Rodgers future, is a good reason we aren't seeing more cap pushed out, especially Rodgers cap.
     
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  7. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Exactly and there are others too, CB is a big area (4 of them). Obviously as you or someone else stated, the 2021 draft needs to be viewed as hopefully finding replacements for some of these guys, but no guarantees. What do you do if King, Sullivan, Tonyan and anyone else have big years?

    Packers 2022 free agents
    • Davante Adams, WR
    • Jaire Alexander, CB (fifth-year option)
    • Kevin King, CB
    • Robert Tonyan, TE
    • Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
    • Equanimeous St. Brown, WR
    • JK Scott, P
    • Chandon Sullivan, CB
    • Josh Jackson, CB
    • Lucas Patrick, G
    • Devin Funchess, WR
    • Will Redmond, S
    • Oren Burks, ILB
    • Hunter Bradley, LS
     
  8. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Lot of money and every WR from most experienced to lease - add in Lazard who will be up for a tender if I'm right as well?
     
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  9. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Oooops, not sure why Lazard wasn't on that list, but yes, he will be a RFA next year. So that is 4 CB's and the 5 WR's that are currently a top the depth chart + our #1 TE. Bad timing to have all that come due for sure.
     
  10. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Totally agree. Looking out 10 months, I think there is a good chance that Z. Smith will be replaced as a core player by Gary after this season. With the future salaries of both of the Smith’s in mind, I expect to see an Edge and a LB like Z. Collins drafted this year.
     
  11. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I will actually predict a different Smith scenario. I just have a sense Z is going to sign an extension that is very team friendly and allows some push in to future years as he wants to retire in GB and has made that clear - but he still won't be cheap. Preston is in his final year IMO...but I've said that before.
     
  12. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Z Dog's recent "restructure" really is going to force the Packers to do something next season with him. If they do nothing, he has a cap hit of $28.13 M. As opposed to cutting him loose and it is "just" a $12.38M cap hit. Nasty hits either way. I hope we can keep him for years to come, but at what cost?
     
  13. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I will clarify, certain positions I have no problem drafting a backup when it's more than possible for the backup to play significant snaps. Edge rusher? Very possible for the 3rd guy to play numerous snaps at important parts of the game (additionally, Gary is big enough that it's possible the coaching staff might have had him play DE). Corner is another position I have no issue drafting a backup since teams play so much nickel and dime defense. Running back is NOT a position where the backup is going to have a massive impact on the team and second round picks should have large impacts when you're paying a few players a majority of the salary cap.

    To your point, Dillon was going the Gary route until the Packers brought back Jones. Now, Dillon is a second round pick that is injury insurance for Jones. I just don't think that's a good use for a second round pick on a title contending team that has gaping holes in other spots on the roster.
     
  14. sschind

    sschind Cheesehead

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    I disagree. I think the number 2 RB is very important in this offensive system, especially when the #1 and #2 complement each other so well. If Jones plays a full 16 games and gets say 250 carries (he had 200 in 14 games last year) and Dillon contributes another 125-150 (Williams had just over 1/2 the carries Jones did last year.) I think that is worth a 2nd round pick.
     
  15. ARPackFan

    ARPackFan GREAT SCOTT HUNTER!!! IT'S BACK TO THE 70s, MARTY!

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    I see a scenario where both Rodgers and Adams are gone in 2022. What if Rodgers is traded after the season either at his request or by the front office? If Love does not impress anyone during the upcoming season would Davante Adams want to stay in Green Bay? Overthecap has the projected franchise tag for WR at $19M.
     
  16. sschind

    sschind Cheesehead

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    I expect Adams to be extended before the season is over.
     
  17. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Honestly an Adams extension not happening to free space kinda surprised me more than nothing for Aaron, if the team clearly desires him to go no where just do it now.
     
  18. Schultz

    Schultz Cheesehead

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    What if ARP has a point. It could be Adams holding up the extension waiting to see what happens with Rodgers.
     
  19. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    What makes you think they are not working on Adam’s extension?
     
  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers will definitely make enough moves to create cap space to be able to sign Adams and Alexander to extensions. I fully expect the team to keep their cap hits low in 2022 with those numbers increasing once the salary cap is going to skyrocket with the new TV deals kicking in.

    It's true they won't be able to keep everyone around after this season though.
     
  21. thequick12

    thequick12 Cheesehead

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    Yeah I too totally disagree with that theory for the most part. There is no way they don't resign both adams and Alexander to big extensions...

    Rodgers himself is where things get more complicated...I think of the 3 you mentioned he is the most likely to not be a packer in 2022. Which once again I 100% disagree with.

    Now you have the Packers FO putting out stories through tyler dunne, Rodgers favorite reporter I'm sure, that the team wasn't able to make a big aquisition because of Rodgers refusal to restructure his contract..

    An assertion that everyone who understands the Packers FO did not and does not need Rodgers permission to restructure his contract, has to see as ridiculous including Rodgers himself. I'm quite certain Rodgers would take this kind of thing very personal, as he is the master of the grudge.

    I think it's very possible the Packers wanted to add void years while restructuring Rodgers to which he declined. A move I agree with by him because the Packers are clearly trying to have their cake and eat it too. Theyre playing both sides in an attempt to maintain the financial flexibility to be able to move on from Rodgers after this season or next. Rodgers is smart enough to know this. The bottom line is they could have restructured his roster bonus and base salary in 2021 and saved like 14 m against the 2021 cap while adding just 6.83 million to his cap numbers in both 2022 and 2023. I get the 2022 part would of been a bit of a problem. Which is I'm sure why the FO probably wanted to add void years to his contract in order to spread that 13.66 m out further.

    This seems to all be headed in a very bad direction for Packers fans unless Jordan Love really is that good. I can't believe that after mishandling the Favre situation that the Packers FO didn't learn anything from their mistakes and is set to repeat them with Rodgers. Alienating you FOH qb just isn't good business and now the Packers are set to repeat history. I just hope this time they aren't scared and they trade him to the bears if that's who will give up the most compensation. Because in the end with Favre they shout of just taken Minnesota's offer of 2 first round picks instead of just a 2nd from the jets.

    Because the way this is headed I can see Rodgers deciding he doesn't want to play for a team that treats the players with such a lack of respect. The Packers are notorious for it. We have to look no further than that insult offer they made to Jordy Nelson on his way out the door. Really? We'll let you be a packer if you play the season for 1 million. Who actually says that? I'll tell you who someone or someones who are totally brain dead to the concept of tact. You don't even make that offer it wasn't an offer so much as an insult.

    Well, asking Rodgers to add void years so you maintain the flexibility to move on from him after this season is the same kind of tactless action that has clearly resulted in their FOH qb feeling insulted and disrespected...
     
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  22. ARPackFan

    ARPackFan GREAT SCOTT HUNTER!!! IT'S BACK TO THE 70s, MARTY!

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    What you posted makes a lot of sense. I wish I knew what has been offered and countered by the Packers & Rodgers through his agent. I still think there is a slight chance that Rodgers forces his way out on a post June 1 trade.

    This is a few months old and I'm sure it has been posted somewhere but here is an interview with T.J. Lang.

    https://www.audacy.com/sports/nfl/tj-lang-aaron-rodgers-wants-to-make-packers-pay
     
  23. sschind

    sschind Cheesehead

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    Are you serious? You really want to know stuff? It's much more fun to guess and speculate on what was done and what was said than to know. That way if you guess right you win. That's the best part of guessing, the winning.

    If you know you can't win. You just know and so does everyone else so you don't get to say I told you so. That's the best part of guessing, being able to say I told you so. Well that and not having to admit you were wrong if you guess wrong. That's good too.
     
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  24. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Ju
    Just to be clear I agree with your first paragraph. The rest is pretty much supposition and clearly a rant against Packer mgmt, present and past.

    Players come and players go. The Green Bay Packers continue onward.
     
  25. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    You nailed it with this statement. What do we actually know about his contract talks or even better, what do we actually know concerning most of the rumors that center around Rodgers?

    40 years ago, we all would be sitting here smiling, knowing we have one of the greatest NFL QB's to ever play the game and be oblivious to all this noise. We wouldn't be hearing/reading 2 million different takes on the Aaron Rodgers "situations" via the internet.

    While I am not saying that none of what people are saying might turn out to be true, but there is also the possibility that it might turn out to be false. People love a good story, as well as a scoop. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Rodgers will quit football, become a professional wrestler or gameshow host and marry his brothers girlfriend. Let's see if I can get this story rolling!
     

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