How Many Years Left for AR to replacement

[mongoosev]

depends if he gets some good receivers next year. if so, i'd say he could play into his 40s.

 

[rmontro]

depends if he gets some good receivers next year. if so, i'd say he could play into his 40s.

I agree with that, if they put some resources into the offense and build it up, make it fun for him and run the ball a lot, I could see Rodgers playing into his 40s.

 

[PackinMSP]

Or hopefully 1-2-3

1- Favre
2- Rodgers
3- next guy

I don't know how many SBs AR has left in him if I'm being honest

 

[HardRightEdge]

Or hopefully 1-2-3

1- Favre
2- Rodgers
3- next guy

I don't know how many SBs AR has left in him if I'm being honest

We don't know how many SBs anybody has in them if we're being honest.

 

[Pugger]

Typical Cowherd. Bear with me for a few excruciating paragraphs on the golf analogies before getting to the actual point.

For those of you who do not know anything about golf there are 18 holes in a round. If Aaron Rodgers was "on the 18th hole" as Cowherd mis-quoted him, Rodgers will be retiring before the conclusion of this year's playoffs. 15th. season, 18 holes, do the math. Math, accurate quotes and golf analogies are evidetly not Cowherd's strengths.

John Doran, on the other hand, mis-quoted him as saying he's "making the turn" with the 18th. hole in sight. In golf, "making the turn" typically means on the way to the 10th. hole tee box where on nearly every golf course the 18th. hole is visible. In that case, Rodgers would have 15 seasons left in the tank. To belabor the point, there's an alternative meaning of "making the turn". Rodgers could be on an elevated tee box on the 14th. hole at a far end of the course with the 18th. hole in sight. In this case, "making the turn" (which Rodgers did not even say) might mean there are 5 holes left out of 18 that lead back toward the clubhouse.

Rodgers actually said he is "seeing the 18th. hole coming up." What does that mean? Who knows. He could picture himself on that elevated 14th. tee box which would equate to 5 more seasons to age 41. On my home course I can see the 18th. hole from 10 and from some part of 14, 15, 16 and 17, but the course doesn't make the final turn toward the clubhouse until the par 5 17th. What do we make of that?

Am I making too much out of golf analogies? Absolutely. But I didn't start this absurdity with mis-quotes. How hard is it to quote a guy saying stuff on video anyway? It's not that hard.

More to the point:

Before 2018, Rodgers said he planned to play to age 40 or beyond, though he thought it realistic that it might not be with the Packers:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-the-packers-to-keep-him-around-into-his-40s/

That was before he signed his extension in 2018 which takes him to age 40. Still, on the eve of the 2019 season, his longevity in Green Bay was still playing on his mind:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...-got-their-offseason-right-he-might-not-have/

"My career is at stake every year I go out there. I got to perform, or else they’re going to find someone who can come in here and do it just as well for less. Every great player I’ve been around here has either finished up someplace else or had a disappointing end to their time here. I’d like to not be one of those, but I’m realistic enough to realize it’s happened to a lot of my close friends.”

There's no great revelation here. It's pretty rare for any player, even the HOFers, to play for one team for an entire career.

Fast forward to the eve of the 2019 season and we have this:

“We’ll see. I envision playing as long as my body feels good and I have the love for the game that I do right now that still fuels me and is still a passion. And I still love the daily grind and the practice and the preparation. If I can give everything to a team in that manner and my body feels good, I’m going to keep rolling."

So, we're pretty much where we thought we were to begin with. Rodgers plans to play as long as the above applies. How long will that be? Nobody knows at this juncture, probably not even Rodgers.

But succession planning is an entirely different issue. You'd prefer not to be left hanging with an announcement of an upcoming retirement near the conclusion of a season, be it this one or four years from now near the conclusion of the current contract.

What you don't want to do is draft a successor too soon and then be left like New England with Goroppolo having to be traded after his 3rd. year to get some value back before he hits free agency. 5th. year option or not with a 1st. rounder, you better expect to start that successor no later than year 3 or you run the risk of him going to seed sitting on the bench.

It's certainly feasible to draft a QB as high as the first round in 2020, with the idea he'll start in 2022 when Rodgers dead cap is manageable, but I highly doubt that will happen. A good draft in 2020 sans QB puts the Packers squarely in the window of championship opportunity. I don't think you pass up a non-QB in the first round.

2021? That's the most plausible scenario but too many other things can happen in the mean time--another Rodgers injury and an associated loss of love for the game. There is no reason to believe, as Cowherd would have it, that Rodgers is in that place now. But events could put him there before the next draft.

Will there be a QB worth taking in the first round in 2020 or 2021 when our turn comes up? In 2005 we got lucky that Rodgers fell. Normally a QB of his caliber in a draft doesn't last that long. We might not be able to find AR's replacement until we have one or two poor seasons and are in the position to draft one at the top of a draft.

 

[ARPackFan]

Will there be a QB worth taking in the first round in 2020 or 2021 when our turn comes up? In 2005 we got lucky that Rodgers fell. Normally a QB of his caliber in a draft doesn't last that long. We might not be able to find AR's replacement until we have one or two poor seasons and are in the position to draft one at the top of a draft.

Bingo!!! The number of game-changing QBs is a very small list.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Will there be a QB worth taking in the first round in 2020 or 2021 when our turn comes up?.

Dunno. It's going to be a low pick in the 2020 first round and I have a very hard time seeing the Packers spending that pick on QB.

If there's a guy who looks like he's worth taking in 2021, and he is taken, you won't know for quite awhile whether that guy is any good. It's a crap shoot. Here are the QBs taken in the first round over the last 10 years:

Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Mitchell Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariotta
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
E.J. Manual
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weedon
Cam Newton
Jack Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

Only two have even played in a Super Bowl, none have won one, and there are a lot of busts (and I imagine busts-to-be) in that list. Do you feel lucky?

 

[PackAttack12]

Dunno. It's going to be a low pick in the 2020 first round and I have a very hard time seeing the Packers spending that pick on QB in 2020 regardless.

If there's a guy who looks like he's worth taking in 2021, and he is taken, you won't know for quite awhile whether that guy is any good. It's a crap shoot. Here are the QBs taken in the first round over the last 10 years:

Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Mitchell Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariotta
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
E.J. Manual
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weedon
Cam Newton
Jack Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

Only two have even played in a Super Bowl, none have won one, and there are a lot of busts (and I imagine busts-to-be) in that list. Do you feel lucky?

By my count, 5 franchise changers (a generous number), along with 2 or 3 possible in the future. If the Packers are able to follow up Favre and Rodgers with another 1st ballot hall of famer seamlessly, it would be remarkably good fortune.

 

[El Guapo]

Back when Favre was playing is "will I, or won't I" retire game each season, one of the Packers beat writers did an analysis of how to replace a HOF quarterback. The question was whether teams were better off drafting a QB or acquiring one via trade or free agency. The overwhelming evidence was that most teams failed at having two HOF quarterbacks in a row. Those that did adequately replace them, did it through an equal mix of draft and player acquisition. Luckily, Green Bay pulled a rabbit out of its hat with Rodgers to follow up Favre.

The biggest problem (in my mind) with drafting a QB in the first round is that they are expected to start in Year 1. That is a recipe for disaster. HRE's list above would look significantly different if most of those QBs were allowed to marinate on the shelf for a few years and learn like Rodgers did. There's no substitute for experience, but there is also no substitute for learning the position well enough to be effective.

I'd be in favor of using a 1st round pick in the next year or two on the right QB. That said, I hope that we go WR with one of the top two picks in 2020 but Ted Thompson proved that you get the BPA in Round 1.

 

[pacmaniac]

Whoever we draft, we still gotta have the coaches around him who can develop him. That was one good thing about MM. If Rodgers had been drafted by the Bears, he probably would've had some disappointing seasons and would've been out of the league before 2010!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Will there be a QB worth taking in the first round in 2020 or 2021 when our turn comes up? In 2005 we got lucky that Rodgers fell. Normally a QB of his caliber in a draft doesn't last that long. We might not be able to find AR's replacement until we have one or two poor seasons and are in the position to draft one at the top of a draft.

It's possible Tua Tagovailoa drops to the Packers first round pick because of his hip injury. While he was widely considered a possible NFL franchise quarterback before the injury HRE's list should make you feel hesitant about feeling too optimistic about it.

I like the approach of having a possible replacement for Rodgers to sit behind him for some time but in my opinion next year's draft should mainly be used to improve the offense to make another run with Rodgers.

 

[PackAttack12]

I like the approach of having a possible replacement for Rodgers to sit behind him for some time but in my opinion next year's draft should mainly be used to improve the offense to make another run with Rodgers.

Agreed.

2020 should be the offseason of getting offensive reinforcements to reload around Rodgers for his age 36-40 years.

At the start of the 2020 season, Rodgers will be 36. So if you figure 36, 37, 38, 39, and potentially 40, that's five more seasons of potentially high level quarterback play. But they have to put more around him than what he currently has for those years in which he approaches 40.

Reload in 2020. And look to draft a potential replacement QB in 2021 or 2022.

 

[Mondio]

I always say, if they think the next "rodgers" is sitting there, take him. Outside of that, all eyes should be towards continuing to build a better team around him for the next 2 years before those thoughts even begin to creep in. We've made our bed so to speak. The cap is spent, the decision has been made. We're all in on this QB, and rightly so, for the next couple seasons.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think what will be interesting is to determine what type of quarterback will be needed to be drafted for a successor as well!

I mean obviously the old addage of the "protypical" 6'4 pocket passer is fine but we saw Andrew Luck retire lol so it means that size doesn't always necessarily hold up

Do you also go with a running type of QB?

Lamar Jackson is in the midst of one of the greatest seasons of an NFL QB. Ever. Right now actually. So do you go with a running dual threat QB.

Who knows?

I’m not crazy about the running QBs. Their shelf life seems to be 5 to 7 years, and then the pounding catches up, the legs get slower, and on. As for timing, they’re a year or two away from picking a successor. But if someone falls to them, and they’re still able to address ILB, TE, and WR, then why not?

 

[milani]

It's possible Tua Tagovailoa drops to the Packers first round pick because of his hip injury. While he was widely considered a possible NFL franchise quarterback before the injury HRE's list should make you feel hesitant about feeling too optimistic about it.

I like the approach of having a possible replacement for Rodgers to sit behind him for some time but in my opinion next year's draft should mainly be used to improve the offense to make another run with Rodgers.

Love to get LSU'S QB.

 

[Dblbogey]

I would draft a QB in the 2020 draft for his replacement. This will give him two years to sit and learn the system. I realize we need an OT, MLB and WR. But, we have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds for those positions. Maybe we can also get a couple of comp picks in the 4th found.

Comp picks are no more for Green Bay. That's the downside of picking up free agents, which I'm all for after the TT years..

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Love to get LSU'S QB.

There's no way Burrow drops to the Packers first round pick.

 

[El Guapo]

Want to read up on the Packers' needs heading into the 2005 draft? http://archive.jsonline.com/sports/packers/203119011.html/

Defense was a strong need, Darren Sharper was just released, and Mike Sherman had completely neglected the OL. The Packers had many more pressing needs than a first round QB, but Thompson went for BPA and was rewarded with total conciousness....so he had THAT going for him.