Home Field

[Unomee]

How is it that the team has not yet clinched HFA? They do own tie breaker with the Saints and why would the 49er's get it assuming the pack were to lose it's final two games?

 

[Bensalama21]

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

If we lost our last 2 games and the 49ers won the last 2 games, I believe they would win #3

 

[BillyBoy]

Common games is correct, they mentioned it on ESPN last night.

 

[GreenBlood]

How is it that the team has not yet clinched HFA? They do own tie breaker with the Saints and why would the 49er's get it assuming the pack were to lose it's final two games?

You can go here and play what-if all day and you'll see that we don't have it locked up. If we lose our last two and SF wins theirs, they will have HFA. They have the tie-breaker. But that's four games that have to go SF's way. We only need one of them to go our way.


http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[realcaliforniacheese]

Makes me shudder we are even talking about this, when last week it was, nobody left can beat us. WE LOCK CHRISTMAS.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Home field is overrated anyway, as if us winning 4 post-season games just last year didn't prove, our us losing our last HOME playoff game to the Giants in 2008, who also won 4 playoff games away from their home, to win the Super Bowl.

For a team like the Saints, they've struggled away from their dome though... losing at Seattle somehow.

 

[GreenBlood]

Home field is overrated anyway.

I'd much rather be playing at Lambeau than Candlestick. SF plays especially well at home. They are a different team on the road, where their wins have been much closer.

 

[Jules]

Also if you end up in SF you may have to suffer through 20 minute black outs. *sigh*

Beat the Bears Sunday night and end this thing. The Packers can and should beat the Bears.

 

[FrankRizzo]

I guess I agree with that.
I just have BAD memories of our last 4 HOME playoff games. We lost 3 of them: Giants, Vikings, Falcons...... as 7+ point favorites.
Meanwhile we ran the table last year on the road.

COMPROMISE? http://packersinsider.com/2011/12/packers-should-move-lambeau-to-miami/

 

[Jules]

I guess I agree with that.
I just have BAD memories of our last 4 HOME playoff games. We lost 3 of them: Giants, Vikings, Falcons...... as 7+ point favorites.
Meanwhile we ran the table last year on the road.


COMPROMISE? http://packersinsider.com/2011/12/packers-should-move-lambeau-to-miami/

I hear ya. I am a Colts fan first after all LOL. I know all too well what it is like to have a glorious regular season to see it come crashing down at the wrong time. I pray it won't happen to Green Bay. I don't think it will and I hope I am right on this one.

Sometimes the first game coming off the bye week is the toughest. A team with momentum waltzing in and all that jazz.

 

[okcpackerfan]

Home field is overrated anyway, as if us winning 4 post-season games just last year didn't prove, our us losing our last HOME playoff game to the Giants in 2008, who also won 4 playoff games away from their home, to win the Super Bowl.

For a team like the Saints, they've struggled away from their dome though... losing at Seattle somehow.

don't be so short sighted, the numbers over many many many years of playoffs greatly FAVOR the HOME team

 

[FrankRizzo]

don't be so short sighted, the numbers over many many many years of playoffs greatly FAVOR the HOME team

OK, go back 30 years and tell me how many times the #1 seeds make the Super Bowl. I bet it's no more than half the time.

 

[realcaliforniacheese]

OK, go back 30 years and tell me how many times the #1 seeds make the Super Bowl. I bet it's no more than half the time.

Well playing a month at home with a bye week in there sure as hell can't hurt.

 

[okcpackerfan]

OK, go back 30 years and tell me how many times the #1 seeds make the Super Bowl. I bet it's no more than half the time.

a better analysis - how about you go back 30 years and tell me often the road team wins in the playoffs, I bet its below 50%.

 

[Jules]

OK, go back 30 years and tell me how many times the #1 seeds make the Super Bowl. I bet it's no more than half the time.

No matter what, you would rather be at home. And you would rather force dome teams to come to the cold and stuff like that.

I'll tell you this. The #1 seed has not been the best of luck for AFC teams since 2005. I can't go through history but of course you would rather be at home.

2005-Colts one and done
2006-Chargers one and done
2007-Pats lost SB
2008-Titans one and done
2009-Colts lost SB
2010-Pats one and done

At least the NFC has a SB winner in recent years who has had the #1 seed.

Both #1 seeds don't tend to go to the SB either. In 2009 it almost seemed rare for both to get there.

This is from before the 2009 playoffs:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8152fe3b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

In taking a closer look at the seed slots, the No. 2 seed has produced the most Super Bowl champions. When grouped together, the top two seeds -- who would own first-round byes -- have a 66.6 percent change of making it to the Super Bowl and a 27.8 percent chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy. Keep in mind that there has not been a No. 1 seed vs. No. 1 seed Super Bowl matchup in this nine-year span. A No. 1 seed has faced a No. 2 seed three times, and the No. 2 seed has won the Super Bowl all three times. It happened in 2001, when the New England Patriots defeated the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. It happened the following year, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. And, it happened again in 2004, when the Patriots defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

The chances of winning a Super Bowl from the No. 3, 4, 5 or 6 seeds are the same. The best "wild-card" stories involved the No. 6-seeded 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers defeating the No. 1-seeded Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XL. The No. 5-seeded New York Giants defeated the No. 1-seeded -- and previously unbeaten -- Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. The only No. 1 seed to hoist the Lombardi Trophy were the 2003 Patriots, who defeated the No. 3-seeded Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

The 14-0 Colts have already clinched the AFC's top seed this year. The Saints can clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed with a win on Sunday at home against the 2-12 Buccaneers. There will be a lot of talk about how great a Colts-Saints Super Bowl matchup would be if the two could meet in South Florida in early February. However, keep in mind the trends of the past nine years. The No. 1 seeds have just a five percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Two No. 1 seeds have yet to meet in the Super Bowl this decade, and haven't done so since the 1993 season when the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills met in Super Bowl XXVIII.

The Colts and Saints have looked like great teams all season, but the biggest mountain has yet to be climbed. It would be wise to pay closer attention to the teams that finish in the No. 2 seed, which at this point appears to be the San Diego Chargers and Minnesota Vikings.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Right, that illustrates just how irrelevant that gaining the #1 seed is.

Remember the 2007 season in which the Packers and Cowboys were both 10-1, met in Dallas, Farve sucked, knicked his elbow up, younr Aaron came in with us in a 27-10 hole, and almost dug us all the way out?

That game gave the Cowboys the #1 seed and us the #2 seed. We were both clearly the top 2 teams in the NFC pretty much from Sept til January when the playoffs began. During that season, the Cows had spanked the Giants two times, and we crushed them once too, in New York.

When the playoffs came, the Giants went to Tampa, won.
Went to #1 Dallas. Won.
Went to frozen Green Bay. Won.

I'm just trying to caution people that with the way we played on the road last year in the playoffs, and the way we've not protected home field in the playoffs the past 4 or 5 games, and the way our offense is built around a high octane, precison passing strategy, with a lot of receivers who drop balls, playing in ice cold weather is not going to help our composition.

We are not a physical team on either side of the ball. We don't have a strong mindset to run, and we don't stop the run well.

Pray that the middle part of January is unseasonably warm in Green Bay.

 

[GreenBayGal]

I think Rizzo has a valid point. The real advantage at home is the crowd and familiar territory. However, last season's playoffs on the road were very successful for us. Maybe the team on the road has that extra adrenalin. (last week's KC game excluded) I personally like the home games because I feel the local love. Yet, IMO, it all depends on which one of our teams shows up to play.

 

[Bogart]

I think Jules is right.


The only # 6 seeds that won the Super Bowl were the 2010 Packers and the 2005 Steelers (with thanks to the refs)


Last year is probably the only time in the next 10 years you will see a wild card seed from the NFC make it to the Super Bowl, and statistically, GB would have been a higher seed had they pulled through a few games. What other wild card teams other than GB, and the Giants of 2007 had some statistical advantage over everyone else? Pack never trailed by more than 7 points ever last season, no other teams had that, and each loss was 7 points or fewer.

I'm not saying wild card teams suck, but you do want homefield advantage. This team won it last year on the road for 3 games, but that barely ever happens in the league. What would you rather have? Going on the road for 3 games to the Super Bowl, or home field advantage knowing you are safer in your own stadium? I think I'd go with option B, especially if it comes down to Dome teams. You WANT to force those dome teams like New Orleans and Detroit to come to a cold weather atmosphere, as they are dome teams.

 

[ivo610]

our recent record at home in the playoffs is very depressing. Not sure if I will ever get over the Giants game.