Favre - Big Game Choke Theory

[IronMan]

Favre - Big Game Choke Theory
Myth?

Maybe we should put Kari Byron from Mythbusters on the case:

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[tromadz]

I'll be in my bunk.

 

[Heatherthepackgirl]

Obviously he has more positives than negatives, but there are enough negatives to block us from the SB. We need a QB who makes one bad decision a game AT MOST. Yes we had bad defenses, but Favre hasn't looked spectacular in most of his playoff games since the beginning of the Sherman era.

Fact of the matter is that we need a QB who doesn't throw INTs in overtime in the playoffs.

I'm curious as to who you think would be a QB that would lead the Packers teams that Favre had to Super Bowl victories?

I honestly think that Packers fans as a whole need to step back for a second and put things in perspective. We went to the NFC title game 4 out of the 16 years that Favre was our QB. How many other franchises in the NFL have had this kind of success in the past 16 years?

The other thing people forget about Favre is that you got a QB that has played in EVERY game. Do you realize how hard it is to find a durable QB? Look at the IR lists this year for QB's. Rodgers has been injured twice for prolonged periods already. Also, Favre has played his entire career at Lambeau in cold weather. YES, he put up those stats in December with cold weather. Manning and Romo play in a dome with HOF WR's in Owens and Harrison and Favre puts up similar numbers to them. Appreciate what you got the last 16 years.

IMO, he was a big reason that a lot of those post Holmgrom teams got to the playoffs in the first place. Like honestly speaking, which other QB's do you think would have got those teams to the spots they were in? Brady, Manning, Young? That's 3 QB's out of the 50+ that have probably played in the last 10 years. The defense stops 4th and 26, we'er in the conference championship game. The defense stops Young/Owens on that last second play, IMO, we beat the Falcons with that momentum. Things are relative, yeah Favre has had bad games but he's had more good than bad, appreciate what you got and compare it to what other teams have experienced in the last 16 years.

Think about our divison. Imagine being a Vikings, Bears or Lions fan. Look at their QB position in the same 16 years. What you got wiht Favre was someone special. He wasn't superman, he was human. He wasn't hte greatest of all time but he was pretty darn close given his circumstances.

Again IMO, we're lucky to have had hte memories we've had because I think our coaching + defense post Holmgrom era was terrible.

GREAT POST REDSOX!

It's so true, most people do not understand nor appreciate how good we have it. We need a QB that won't throw INTs in big games? Yeah, well Africa needs food to feed its starving children every day, need doesn't equal reality. We have it so well its not even funny. Does anyone recall the Quarterback carousel/frenzy that went on this year? How many teams stuck with one starting QB the ENTIRE year? The percentage is unbelievable. Brett makes mistakes because, wow, he's human, and the fact that he isn't the center of the greatest salary cap filled teams has something to do with it too. But I'm not putting down our team, we were unbelievable this year, and considering the youth and inexperience we had, what we did this year was practically unheard of. So maybe instead of complaining and whining about the flaws of a player that had brought us to the unthinkable, instead be grateful of how far we had come, and with this huge learning experience under our belts, imagine the possibilities that could come for us next year

Great posts Sar and Redsox!! I couldnt have said it any better.

 

[tromadz]

Brett makes mistakes because, wow, he's human

Yeah, but it's the boneheaded rookie-like mistakes that are killer. It would make sense if his physical talents declined and THAT was the reason for his mistakes, but it's not. His physical talents are amazing still, which should be impossible, but mentally...I dunno, man. I dunno. I'm so bummed still. Don't mind me.

and the fact that he isn't the center of the greatest salary cap filled teams has something to do with it too.

Ahh, there it is.

 

[IronBMike]

A Favre was good about it this year, save for a few situations, but he picks the wrong situations to lose his cool. The two picks he threw against the Giants were crushing and in NO circumstance would someone like Joe Montana or Tom Brady etc thrown those.

Did not Brady throw 3 INTs in a Playoff game this year? Let's check the stats...

Now, Montana, I could agree with you. Brady stunk it up and got bailed out by Maroney. No Maroney, it would be Giants beating the Chargers in the SB.

Brady could afford to have the picks and take those risks. Neither of Favre's picks should've happened because of the situation.

 

[Cdnfavrefan]

Easy to say now since the Pats won but I'm not sure why he can afford a pick inside the 10 anymore then another player. Yes Favre has had bad games in playoffs that can't be argued but is that any exception from other QB's. Sure Dilfer and Johnson could afford to only throw sure passes but with a lot of our teams Brett was relied on to air it out. I will say though that's why this last game was a disapointment cause it was one of his first playoff games where he could of almost been able to play a game manager game but we all know it just ain't in him. I think I'd have to call Peyton Manning a lot more of a big game choker then Favre

 

[WinnipegPackFan]

Fact of the matter is that we need a QB who doesn't throw INTs in overtime in the playoffs.

Terry Bradshaw's playoff stats the 4 years they won the SB:

1974:
touchdowns:3 ints: 1
1975:
touchdowns:3 ints: 5
1978:
touchdowns:8 ints: 4
1979:
touchdowns:6 ints: 4

Now his playoff career totals:
touchdowns 30 ints: 26
Thats 26 ints in 19 games. He even threw 3 picks in SB XIV but they still won the game. Why did they win so many games? Because they had good TEAMS.

Great post Midwest!!!

Love it Midwest,

Most people don't bother to research this stuff...Good job !!!

 

[cheesey]

Like was said already..........we have needs on the TEAM that will keep us in games. The Giants game proved that. Harris couldn't stop Burris, and our run game stunk. Yet we made it that far because Favre played go well all season. He won alot of our early games with his arm when we had NO running game. When you get to the playoffs, thats when your weaknesses TEAM wise are shown to the world. If we can fix those, Favre won't have to try so hard, and we can win it all.
I still think having him is better then unproven Rodgers.
JMO

 

[Timmons]

Is Favre a big game choker? I'll put it like this: He is more of a big game choker than his is a big game winner.

On average, he throws two or three passes a game that we'd all love to have back. Some of those turn into INTs and that loses games.

In order to win it all in the playoffs, you have to sting together wins against good teams. This is where his inconsistency hurts us.

He's got the experience to know better, I wish he'd use it.

Publish all the stats you want, I still think we'd be better off with a more accurate, and risk averse QB. Sure, it wouldn't be as fun to watch.

Also, consider this: If he weren't Favre, he would have been benched in three games this year. And while I'm at it, how did Aaron do against the Cowboys?

When Brett retires, I will be sad that his playing time is over, however, I will also look forward opportunities that this team will have. When he is out of the spotlight, I think the whole team will step up. All of football will be worse off for it, it but the Packers won't be.

 

[Obi1]

Is Favre a big game choker? I'll put it like this: He is more of a big game choker than his is a big game winner.

On average, he throws two or three passes a game that we'd all love to have back. Some of those turn into INTs and that loses games.

In order to win it all in the playoffs, you have to sting together wins against good teams. This is where his inconsistency hurts us.

He's got the experience to know better, I wish he'd use it.

Publish all the stats you want, I still think we'd be better off with a more accurate, and risk averse QB. Sure, it wouldn't be as fun to watch.

Also, consider this: If he weren't Favre, he would have been benched in three games this year. And while I'm at it, how did Aaron do against the Cowboys?

When Brett retires, I will be sad that his playing time is over, however, I will also look forward opportunities that this team will have. When he is out of the spotlight, I think the whole team will step up. All of football will be worse off for it, it but the Packers won't be.

I respectfully diagree.

You are correct in your assessment of the 3 bad passes however lets not lose the sight of his 12 or so VERY good passes he usually makes every game. Like the one to Driver that went for 90 yards, the one to Jennings in OT for 80 yards that won the game, etc.

Year in, Year out, he has made plays that many OTHER elite QBs couldn't make. His experience is what made him have the kind of year he had in 2007.

Finding fault is easy. Especially when there are few to find. Do you think that other QBs might also throw a few passes/game that they wish they had back? Can those QBs make the kind of plays Favre makes as often as he does? Don't forget, Favre's talent gets him the opportunities to make plays that some olther QBs wouldn't even get a chance to make.

To dwell on his mistakes doesn't change anything. It just makes you underappreciate him the player, the man, the warrior within.

 

[Zombieslayer]

I agree with Obi1.

While yes, he throws 3 bad passes a game, he throws several that NO OTHER QB could have thrown, which keeps us in the game in the first place.

The Giants were balanced. And their head coach was always one step ahead of everyone else. He knew what you were going to do before you did it. That's why they beat us. That's why they beat the Pats. That's why they deserved to hold the Lombardi.

We wouldn't have been in that game had it not been for Favre. he pulled off a miracle against Seattle. His leadership got Grant to shake it off and pull off the game of his life. Imagine if it had been some other QB, without Favre's charisma. Favre elevates everyone else around him.

Was he bad against the Giants? No. He just wasn't top notch. Look at his stats. They were decent. They weren't bad. His production was better than Tom Brady's production. Brady wasn't as aggressive and didn't get as good results. And we keep forgetting just how bad the weather was in Lambeau against the Giants. It's not easy to air the ball with that kind of weather.

 

[chibiabos]

op: One tends to forget many of the games in which Brett has thrown very ill-advised passes. That it is his nature to try and win games by himself; it does no good to do that in a game that desperately needs all players to do their parts. Eventually GB will have to replace Brett and then you can all find out whether he was the the one person that made the team what it has been or not. Has Brett lost games for GB? Certainly, and so have numerous others. Don't forget many of the coaching erors as well. Guess it just amazes me that so many GB fans fixate on just one player. Team sports are just that: more then one individual contributes both to the wins and the losses.

 

[trippster]

Did Driver run the the correct route on that ill fated pass? Do we know for sure? How about Favres great touch pass to our TE in the endzone? What about the audibles? Do you honestly think that Rodgers is going to not make mistakes as he learns how to play in crucial games? Are you willing to sacrifice a season or two for him to get his feet under him?

If you eat steak everyday, it eventually becomes so-so until you are stuck eating spam. Then that steak tasted pretty darn good.

The other side of this debate is not about his poor choices but how about the last second reads and hitting the correct guy, or making the adjustment or NOT making the adjustment when the defense is showing blitz but not coming? Do we all know enough to say we can judge him on that?

EVERY QB makes throwing mistakes. It is a split second jidgement call. Favres ability to make throws that other QB's wouldn't even attempt (much less pull off,) have kept many a drive alive, resulting in wins. If you are going to saddle the blame on him for the losses for his int's then count the wins for his smart plays too. Totaling them up, I would think his ratio is extremely high. If I recall, didn't Eli make a very poor throw late in the SB that was not int'ed? So did Brady. So has EVERY QB that has ever played the game.

if you want or expect perfection, take up gymnastics. that is the only place I ever hear of perfection in sports.

Why would anyone give up on a top five producing KNOWN commodity for what they THINK might be better? And by thinking that Rodgers might be better you are in fact saying that the coaching staff does not realize it.

I would be willing to bet the farm that if Rodgers was our QB the entire season (assuming he might be healthy ALL season) we wouldn't have even been in the playoffs. His time will come. There is no need to rush it.

 

[Obi1]

Trippster

Isn't this statement saying the same thing twice?

"In the first place God made idiots; that was for practice; then he made Bear and Viking fans. "

 

[trippster]

Not really. He wanted to make sure he could make a really good idiot before he made the bear and viking fans.


It was a take off of an old Mark Twain Joke. First God made idiots for practice, then he made politicians. (I think)

 

[Obi1]

Not really. He wanted to make sure he could make a really good idiot before he made the bear and viking fans.


It was a take off of an old Mark Twain Joke. First God made idiots for practice, then he made politicians. (I think)

Yeah, Twain was a pro at saying things twice...

However, credit to the Bears, Lions and the Vikings... Oh My! They made the division look tougher than before.

 

[Timmons]

I'm not rushing Rodgers and I'm not saying that other QBs are perfect either. My point is Brett's flaw... the ill-advised pass. His first pick of this game was classic Brett, and not required. Thank God for the fumble recovery.

He makes the throws that he makes because he takes the risk. My point is that it isn't always required.

Furthermore, to point out the 90 yard TD pass to driver is not a result of Brett being great. Donald was wide open.

What Brett has brought us is not accuracy, it's longevity. See it however you need to, I'll miss him when he's gone too. The difference is that I think there is a chance that we'll be better without him. If our next QB is a accurate and decent decision maker, our team will be better for it.

If you want to get down the the tacks and details of it, then name a game that Brett won for us. The last great classic Brett drive that I can remember was a long time ago, regular season against Tampa, in Tampa. They just scored, and he followed it with a 90+ yard clock eating drive against their awesome defense. He did that by playing within the team, not by forcing the passes that he shouldn't.

The other great Brett game was against the Raven's when Ray Lewis was the 'man'. Our OC told Brett that he was going to pass for over 300 yards and he did and we won that game and the performance was that good.

As for how we se him, how is it that Rodgers played better against the Cowboys in Dallas this year?

He is worthy of everything that he's earned, but that doesn't make him perfect. I'm just willing to point it out.

Would I play QB roulette with the whole league? Hell no. Many teams have a lot bigger QB problems than ours. I think Rodgers is capable however, and a better overall fit for our current offense. Short gains with YAC.

 

[Pack93z]

If you want to get down the the tacks and details of it, then name a game that Brett won for us.

Could very well be argued that we won the Denver, San Diego, and 1st Minnesota games because of Brett and his decision making plus gambling.

The last great classic Brett drive that I can remember was a long time ago, regular season against Tampa, in Tampa. They just scored, and he followed it with a 90+ yard clock eating drive against their awesome defense. He did that by playing within the team, not by forcing the passes that he shouldn't.

The first part of the season, up through the Denver game we had little to nothing of an offense other than passing the ball on short dunks and moving the ball down the field, all while maintaining a pretty high ranking in offensive stats. Won't those count in these long drive discussions?

In big games, where everything is on the line, I think Brett tightens up and presses to hard. I don't believe he is a bad decision maker or just isn't accurate enough. I truly believe he works himself into such a state that he becomes impatient more so. After 17 years, I don't think anyone can change that but Brett.

Think about to the MVP years, he played the same way. Heck look at the years before we won the Superbowl.. he played the same way everytime in Dallas.. call it whatever you want, but if we want to win it all we have to be able to be balanced on offense. Don't care whom QB's.. if we get behind early or abandon the running game, chances are we aren't going to be holding up the Lombardi.. Ask Billy the Cheat and Wonder boy.

 

[chibiabos]

op: As I stated earlier Brett has always been a risk taker. His major problem has always been his lack of awareness of defensive alignments and of course his greatness is his ability to squeeze balls into places he really shouldn't. I do agree it woud be great for GB to have a lower profile QB who is more accurate and plays within the profiles of the game plans, but that does require very good pass receivers, something GB has been a bit on the short side of until recently. If Rodgers doesn't turn into an injury prone QB he may well be that type of QB. Either way, next season will be a real test of both McCarthy's system and TT's proficiency in obtaining the necessary players for a run at the Super Bowl.

 

[Timmons]

If you want to get down the the tacks and details of it, then name a game that Brett won for us.

Could very well be argued that we won the Denver, San Diego, and 1st Minnesota games because of Brett and his decision making plus gambling.

The last great classic Brett drive that I can remember was a long time ago, regular season against Tampa, in Tampa. They just scored, and he followed it with a 90+ yard clock eating drive against their awesome defense. He did that by playing within the team, not by forcing the passes that he shouldn't.

The first part of the season, up through the Denver game we had little to nothing of an offense other than passing the ball on short dunks and moving the ball down the field, all while maintaining a pretty high ranking in offensive stats. Won't those count in these long drive discussions?

In big games, where everything is on the line, I think Brett tightens up and presses to hard. I don't believe he is a bad decision maker or just isn't accurate enough. I truly believe he works himself into such a state that he becomes impatient more so. After 17 years, I don't think anyone can change that but Brett.

Think about to the MVP years, he played the same way. Heck look at the years before we won the Superbowl.. he played the same way everytime in Dallas.. call it whatever you want, but if we want to win it all we have to be able to be balanced on offense. Don't care whom QB's.. if we get behind early or abandon the running game, chances are we aren't going to be holding up the Lombardi.. Ask Billy the Cheat and Wonder boy.

Pack93,
I'd have to rewatch your games mentioned above. All that stands out in my memory now is that Brett's long ball sucked, except for the Denver game. I believe he had two great long passes in that game, (and one to win it). However, how good was Denver this year? How 'big was this game?

As for the early season drives, sure we've done it this year, but not against a defense like Tampa had in that win. That was a great Brett drive and without any 'big play punctuations that I remember.

My point is an extension of yours I think. We're both saying that consistency is required to win the SB and in order for Brett to win it, his team his going to have to make up for him bad games. The problem is in the play offs, it's harder to do so. It's true at all positions, however it's easy to pick on Brett for this and demand more of him due to his ability and experience. His high's are high and his lows are low. If we could tighten those up, I think that would be a difference maker for us.

As for making up for weaknesses, the same could be said about our running game in the Giants game. We had to cover for a lack of a running game and couldn't get it done. It's the same problem, just a different horse.

 

[longtimefan]

If you want to get down the the tacks and details of it, then name a game that Brett won for us.

Could very well be argued that we won the Denver, San Diego, and 1st Minnesota games because of Brett and his decision making plus gambling.

The last great classic Brett drive that I can remember was a long time ago, regular season against Tampa, in Tampa. They just scored, and he followed it with a 90+ yard clock eating drive against their awesome defense. He did that by playing within the team, not by forcing the passes that he shouldn't.

The first part of the season, up through the Denver game we had little to nothing of an offense other than passing the ball on short dunks and moving the ball down the field, all while maintaining a pretty high ranking in offensive stats. Won't those count in these long drive discussions?

In big games, where everything is on the line, I think Brett tightens up and presses to hard. I don't believe he is a bad decision maker or just isn't accurate enough. I truly believe he works himself into such a state that he becomes impatient more so. After 17 years, I don't think anyone can change that but Brett.

Think about to the MVP years, he played the same way. Heck look at the years before we won the Superbowl.. he played the same way everytime in Dallas.. call it whatever you want, but if we want to win it all we have to be able to be balanced on offense. Don't care whom QB's.. if we get behind early or abandon the running game, chances are we aren't going to be holding up the Lombardi.. Ask Billy the Cheat and Wonder boy.

Pack93,
I'd have to rewatch your games mentioned above. All that stands out in my memory now is that Brett's long ball sucked, except for the Denver game. I believe he had two great long passes in that game, (and one to win it). However, how good was Denver this year? How 'big was this game?

As for the early season drives, sure we've done it this year, but not against a defense like Tampa had in that win. That was a great Brett drive and without any 'big play punctuations that I remember.

My point is an extension of yours I think. We're both saying that consistency is required to win the SB and in order for Brett to win it, his team his going to have to make up for him bad games. The problem is in the play offs, it's harder to do so. It's true at all positions, however it's easy to pick on Brett for this and demand more of him due to his ability and experience. His high's are high and his lows are low. If we could tighten those up, I think that would be a difference maker for us.

As for making up for weaknesses, the same could be said about our running game in the Giants game. We had to cover for a lack of a running game and couldn't get it done. It's the same problem, just a different horse.

Timmons, you 1st asked for a game this year Brett won for us..3 games were given to you..

Now your saying yeah well those werent great defenses..

Now you want clock EATIING drives vs D like Tampa had years ago?

 

[Zombieslayer]

Pack93,
I'd have to rewatch your games mentioned above. All that stands out in my memory now is that Brett's long ball sucked, except for the Denver game. I believe he had two great long passes in that game, (and one to win it). However, how good was Denver this year? How 'big was this game?

As for the early season drives, sure we've done it this year, but not against a defense like Tampa had in that win. That was a great Brett drive and without any 'big play punctuations that I remember.

My point is an extension of yours I think. We're both saying that consistency is required to win the SB and in order for Brett to win it, his team his going to have to make up for him bad games. The problem is in the play offs, it's harder to do so. It's true at all positions, however it's easy to pick on Brett for this and demand more of him due to his ability and experience. His high's are high and his lows are low. If we could tighten those up, I think that would be a difference maker for us.

As for making up for weaknesses, the same could be said about our running game in the Giants game. We had to cover for a lack of a running game and couldn't get it done. It's the same problem, just a different horse.

Timmons - Brett Favre, NOT Tom Brady, led the league in passes 40+ yards. Brett Favre also set the record this year for most passes 75+ yards in his career. Tom Brady even has Randy Moss. We don't. I love Driver and Jennings, but neither of them are 6'4" and run a 4.29.

What more do you want?

 

[trippster]

Can someone please keep track of those who think that our current probowl and runner up mvp QB should be improved, perfect , or let someone else who is "better".

I would like to remind them of what they wished for when we have a grossman like QB with a Fiedler type backup.

He is who he is, and I'll take him any day of the week!

 

[tromadz]

Can someone please keep track of those who think that our current probowl and runner up mvp QB should be improved, perfect , or let someone else who is "better".

I dont really want better, I want SMARTER.

I'd like Brett to be smarter, but at this stage, I doubt he will miraculously be smart, reign it in a bit, and not force stupid throws.

It's everyone elses fault for putting him in that situation though.

 

[Zombieslayer]

I dont really want better, I want SMARTER.

I'd like Brett to be smarter, but at this stage, I doubt he will miraculously be smart, reign it in a bit, and not force stupid throws.

It's everyone elses fault for putting him in that situation though.

I'm sure even Einstein made stupid mistakes. Favre will learn. He has MM. MM will learn from this and not put Favre in this situation again. Our DC will not allow Harris to single cover someone who is smoking him again. All those things will be prevented in the future.


The wonderful thing about the game of football and also life in general is you have to take chances in order to learn. You make mistakes, you learn from them, and you don't repeat them.

In '08, we win the SB. It's a wonderful time to be a Packer fan. No one should be bitter about '07. It's our stepping stone to winning the SB next year.