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Defense in Decline?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by rondon57, Nov 4, 2014.

  1. rondon57

    rondon57 Cheesehead

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    Here is a list of the players on Green Bays defense that have made it to the Pro Bowl starting in 2010. 2010 Nick Collins (Starter) A.J. Hawk Clay Mathews (Starter) Tramon Williams Charles Woodson(Starter) 2011 Clay Mathews(Starter) B.J. Raji Charles Woodson(Starter) 2012 Clay Mathews 2013 None. One can't help but see a downward trend here,although Collins retired because of injury and Raji is on IR and TT let the aging Woodson go it seems GB has failed to draft well or all these draft picks haven't made that jump yet,what do all of you think?
     
  2. yooperpackfan

    yooperpackfan Cheesehead

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    No doubt the defensive drafting has been terrible but I think beginning with Dix with a couple of good d-guys in the next draft, this defense is on the upswing.
    Assuming we don't lose any of our top performers of course.
     
  3. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I think Pro Bowl appearences isn´t a good way to measure a team´s success. There´s no denying though that the defense has regressed since 2010.
     
  4. Packerlifer

    Packerlifer Cheesehead

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    Defense in decline? Whatever gave you that impression:

    2011: 19th in points allowed, 32nd in yards allowed.
    2012: 11th in points allowed, 11th in yards allowed.
    2013: 24th in points allowed, 25th in yards allowed.
    2014: 19th in points allowed, 25th in yards allowed.
     
  5. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    2009: 7th in points allowed, 2nd in yards allowed
    2010: 2nd in points allowed, 5th in yards allowed

    I think it´s fair to say the Packers defense has regressed compared to Capers first two seasons in Green Bay.
     
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  6. Packerlifer

    Packerlifer Cheesehead

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    The more I think about the Packers defensive struggles and issues and the trend of the past 4 seasons the more convinced I become that it's time to scrap the 3-4 and play a 4-3 defense. And since Dom Capers is connected to the 3-4 it will also be time to get a new coordinator.

    The Packers just can't get the players they need to run a good 3-4. Few colleges play it so they are left with drafting undersize ends and trying to convert them into linebackers. They have had strikeout after strikeout acquiring and developing the players who can play the nose and end positions on the line.

    The 3-4 was a sexy defense when Pittsburgh and Baltimore were dominating with it; but neither of those is what they used to be either once they started losing the players it worked with but found it wasn't so easy to find replacements.

    The Packers played it for 13 years from 1980-93 without much in the way of notable results. When they went to 4-3 and brought in Fritz Shurmur to coordinate it they won the Super Bowl within 3 seasons and with the top defense in the league.
     
  7. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers lined up in 4-3 formations at the start of this season but abandoned it after the first half vs. the Bears when it was pretty obvious it didn´t work. While I wouldn´t mind changing the defensive scheme the team doesn´t have the players to succesfully run a 4-3 either.
     
  8. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    I think that the reality is that we don't have the players to run either defense effectively.
     
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  9. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    It's easy to cherry pick stats. Why no mention of the fact that we are 4th in INTs? Or 12th in passes defended? Or 18th in yards/play?

    What really matters is that we're tied for 2nd most WINS in the NFL.
     
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  10. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I agree with the first part of this, but if the playoffs started today, we'd be on the outside looking in. So 2nd most wins is a little misleading. They can definitely get there, but they've got some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, obviously with the run D.
     
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  11. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Here are the relevant stats that I see related to the defense:

    379.3 yards - 25th place - Total YPG
    225.8 yards - 9th place - Passing YPG
    153.5 yards - 32nd place - Rushing YPG
    23.9 points - 19th place - Points Allowed PG
    47.1% - 30th place - Opponents' 3rd Down Conversion Rate
    15 takeaways - 7th place (tie) - Take Aways (we're 3rd overall when factoring giveaways with a +8)
    18 sacks - 18th place - Sacks of opposing QBs

    What the statistics tell me is that we have good DBs that make interceptions, but most other aspects of our defense are at or near the bottom of the league. After playing the Bears, Vikings, Dolphins, and Panthers we were 9th in points allowed, but the Saints blew that door back open when they dropped 44 on us without having to punt.

    Our historical averages dating back to 1994 (about the start of the Favre legacy) are:
    319 yards - Total YPG
    210 yards - Passing YPG
    109 yards - Rushing YPG
    20 points - Allowed PG
    36.4% - Opponents' 3rd Down Conversion Rate
    30 takeways

    Over the same time span, here are our best stats:
    259.8 yards - Total YPG - 1996 (13-3 record - SB win)
    167.5 yards - Passing YPG - 2005 (4-12 record - coaches fired)
    83.3 yards - Rushing YPG - 2009 (11-5 record - lost to AZ in 1st round)
    13.1 points - Allowed PG - 1996 (13-3 record - SB win)
    32.6 % - Opponents' 3rd Down - 2006 (8-8 record - 1st year under Capers)
    45 takeaways - 2002 (12-4 record - lost to ATL in 1st round)

    Over the same time span, here are our worst stats:
    411.6 yards - Total YPG - 2011 (15-1 record - lost to NYG in 1st round)
    299.8 yards - Passing YPG - 2011 (15-1 record - lost to NYG in 1st round)
    131.6 yards - Rushing YPG - 2008 (6-10 record - first year with Aaron Rodgers)
    26.8 points - Allowed PG - 2013 (8-7-1 record - lost to SF in 1st round)
    42.6 % - Opponents' 3rd Down - 2011 (15-1 record - lost to NYG in 1st round)
    15 takeaways - 2004 (10-6 record - lost to Vikings in 1st round)
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2014
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  12. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    Where are we with opponents QB rating now? We were near the top of the NFL a few weeks ago.
     
  13. rondon57

    rondon57 Cheesehead

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    Still,this begs the question, is this because of poor drafting,poor scheme or both?I am not A Dom Capers fan but then again it doesn't look like there has been an infusion of talent on that defense.
     
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  14. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    It's usually both. Even those of us (myself included) that are fans of the Ted Thompson way can admit that he and his staff are better at landing offensive talent than defense.
     
  15. rondon57

    rondon57 Cheesehead

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    They really haven't won against a good team yet this year but with New England,Philly and Detroit we will see how they measure up.They could lose to any or all of those teams but in that Lions game the Offense gave up 9 points.
     
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  16. rondon57

    rondon57 Cheesehead

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    It sure looks that way, I looked up TT's picks on Offense vs Defense starting in 2008 to 2014. 33 picked on Offense,18 are still with the team. 28 on Defense, 16 are still with the team.pretty even ratio yet the Offense has ranked significantly higher in those years than the Defense.
     
  17. rondon57

    rondon57 Cheesehead

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    Maybe they need better scouts for Defense,when a defense goes from 5 pro bowlers in 2010 to 0 in 2013 something is wrong and like one post said Pro Bowl may not be an accurate measuring stick, it is still a strong indication that this Defense has not been going in the right direction.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2014
  18. rondon57

    rondon57 Cheesehead

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    Dix may be a good start,they couldn't miss on a Safety in that draft there were at least 3 good ones at or near their pick.What they really need is upgrades at DL and ILB but that will take a few more drafts and a few more years unless someone suddenly makes a jump but like they say, hope in 1 hand and sh#t in the other and see which hand fills up fastest.
     
  19. realcaliforniacheese

    realcaliforniacheese A-Rods Boss

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    I see a defense that is on the upswing. young players are starting to emerge, we have one of the deepest secondary's in the NFL. Our one big issue is stopping the run and that starts in the middle. I think losing Raji was a huge setback. It has only been the last 3 seasons that TT has been focusing on the D. It's a draft and develop philosophy, you have to have patience while you develop. This D is on the cusp of being a dominant D. When it happens it is going to be for a long run. We could take a shortcut and be at the bottom for a couple of years and draft high. Personally, I like having a ticket to the dance every year.

    The hardest wood is in the slowest growing trees. Hey that was pretty good.:rolleyes:
     
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  20. Twiddlemylobes

    Twiddlemylobes Fat Tuesday Orleans

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    I have mixed feelings about changing the D coaching. First, it's like the presidency. .. It's takes a couple years to see the effects of the cause and gain cohesiveness. Secondly, there's no guarantees that the grass is greener so I'm willing to stand down on my historical position of scheme>talent in fault.
    Either way I agree with rondon57 above in that the Nucleus of the D needs reinforcements. I'm not a draft expert, But it doesn't take one to validate our ILB situation needs strong consideration and close behind that, we need to import a DL that specializes in run-stop. If we're fortunate and we can get Raji back healthy to sign reasonably for a short term contract, we need an understudy at DT here. I understand the priority behind choosing the "most talented player" but these position needs trump that within a reasonable situation and therefore the most talented player at these positions needs to be prioritized. This is true even if it requires trading order of picks or a future pick to shore up the deficiency. It's hard to judge the disparity in relation to the talent pool draft day until the picks unfold, but with some crafty bargaining we could very well have a stab at both picks high in the draft. In the meantime Hawk and BJs experience compensate for their age factor, but we all know that the tide is turning. There is another upside, We have guys that are adequate for depth without being forced to donate a kidney here.
    On a Side note prediction.. The D makes a stand this week and holds Chicago within 20pts. And Peppers sais C-H-I-L-L
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2014
  21. Packerlifer

    Packerlifer Cheesehead

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    That they are lining up in that NASCAR formation seems like an admission their 3-4 isn't working. Of course they don't currently have the personnel for a base 4-3 scheme but that's where they build in the draft and with some free agency moves.

    I still think it would be more likely and more quickly accomplished than trying again to convert players from 4-3 defenses in college or elsewhere in the league to 3-4 players.
     
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  22. Packerlifer

    Packerlifer Cheesehead

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    It bears some recall what became of the heart of that Super Bowl XLV defense over the last 4 years. DE Cullen Jenkins left in free agency, s Nick Collins suffered a career ending neck injury, lb Desmond Bishop lost his career to injury, cb Charles Woodson and dl Ryan Pickett got older and are now gone, nt B.J. Raji was a preseason injury loss for this year.
     
  23. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Currently nine teams in the league have more wins than the Packers.
     
  24. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I like your optimism but I don´t see the defense being on the cusp of being a dominant D. The secondary is deep but both ILBs need to be replaced and they´ll need at least another two DL being able to stop the run.
     
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  25. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    We led the league in opponents passer rating before the Saints game but dropped to 7th after it at 82.1.
     
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