(What do you think, too negative or on the mark?)
Cliff Christl
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Green Bay - If you're into reading tea leaves as we head into the final lull before training camp, they suggest that if Ahman Green doesn't fully recover and come close to performing to his 2003 level, the Green Bay Packers will be hard-pressed to beat last year's record.
Two minicamps and 14 other practices in late May and June all but verified what most realists probably suspected: Remove Green from the equation and the Packers are all but bankrupt of talent at the offensive skill positions aside from quarterback.
Green didn't participate in any of the practices, other than during stretching and half-speed teaching periods, as he continues to recover from surgery, performed last October, to repair a ruptured right quadriceps tendon.
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With injury-prone backup tailback Najeh Davenport also on the mend from ankle surgery, it left Noah Herron and Samkon Gado sharing time with the first offense. And while Gado is clearly the more explosive of the two, he couldn't separate himself from Herron, the embodiment of a run-of-the-mill back, over the past two months.
The wide receiver corps already was depleted by the pre-draft trade of Javon Walker. While trading Walker might have been the best alternative to a bad situation, it still robbed the Packers of their youngest and maybe most explosive game-breaker.
Pro Football Weekly recently published its 2006 preview issue and it included its annual player ratings by position. The magazine compiled the ratings with what it described as "a huge assist" from scouts, personnel directors and general managers.
Brett Favre was still rated the fourth best quarterback behind Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, but Favre no longer was rated among the top 50 players in the National Football League.
As recently as last year, Favre was rated seventh.
What that means, in turn, is that the Packers don't have a single player ranked among the 50 best. That puts them in the company of only six other teams, none of which made the playoffs last season and only one of which won more than six games. The other six teams without a top 50 player were Buffalo, Houston, Cleveland, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco.
At wide receiver, Donald Driver was ranked 27th, although Jimmy Smith, formerly of Jacksonville, was included in the ratings and has since retired. Delete Smith from the list and 20 of the 32 NFL teams still had a No. 1 receiver ranked higher than Driver. Five teams had two receivers ranked higher.
Walker was ranked 15th.
In other words, the Packers had two of the top 26 receivers in the league. Now, they have only one of the top 26.
That's a Niagara Falls sized drop-off, especially when you consider that the Packers probably don't have a second receiver who would rank among the top 50, maybe even the top 64.
PFW ranked 33 wide receivers, listed another 13 as emerging veterans and noted that three others weren't ranked due to injuries last season.
Neither Robert Ferguson nor Rod Gardner was among the 49.
At tight end, Bubba Franks was rated ninth, but he's hardly a playmaker, other than maybe in the red zone. For whatever reason, the magazine didn't rank fullbacks this year, but there isn't a player at that position in the entire league that's considered a playmaker.
That leaves running back.
Green was ranked sixth by PFW, although he played in only five games last year and averaged a career low 3.3 per carry. At age 29, even if Green wasn't coming off surgery, the clock on his career would be ticking down.
In 77 carries last year, his longest run was 13 yards. His 3.3 average was a yard less than his lowest previous average.
Add Green's surgery to the mix and there's reason to wonder if he'll ever play again, much less be his old self. It's safe to assume that general manager Ted Thompson wouldn't be banking on Green to make a comeback if he hadn't received encouraging reports from team doctors.
But the only Packers known to have ruptured a quadriceps in the past 25 years were cornerback Mike McCoy; and defensive tackles Santana Dotson and Steve Warren. McCoy reinjured himself in his first camp back and never played again. Former team doctor Eugene Brusky said later it was an injury with a high risk for recurrence. Dotson and Warren each played one more season, but weren't the same players.
With the Green of old, the Packers might have a formidable running game.
That, in turn, would relieve the pressure on Favre and perhaps allow him to make due with an average supporting cast elsewhere. After all, Favre has played with mostly average receivers for most of his career.
What if Green is removed from the lineup?
PFW listed Davenport and Gado among 16 young veteran backs who have shown some potential.
But without Green, the Packers wouldn't have a featured back ranked among the top 30 in the league.
It doesn't take a football genius to conclude that if a team doesn't have one of the top 30 runners in the league and it has only one of the top 50 receivers, it's going to struggle to score points and win games.
Couldn't the Packers surprise with a dominating defense?
Sure, if that was a realistic possibility.
But the Packers haven't had a dominating defense since 1996 and you can all but forget about them having one this season. To have a special defense requires special players.
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila was ranked 23rd and Aaron Kampman, 29th, at defensive end. Ryan Pickett was ranked 24th at defensive tackle. Nick Barnett was ranked 20th at inside linebacker. Al Harris was ranked 12th and Charles Woodson, 21st, at cornerback. Those are the only Packers' defenders ranked.
That's not exactly a lineup that's going to make anybody forget the '85 Chicago Bears. Or even the 2006 Bears.
They have five defenders ranked among the top 12 at their respective positions: Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, outside linebacker Lance Briggs, defensive tackle Tommie Harris, defensive end Adewale Ogunleye and safety Mike Brown.
The bottom line here might be where Pro Football Weekly picked the Packers to finish, no doubt based, in part, on what they heard from NFL scouts. The magazine predicted the Packers would finish last in the NFC North with a 4-12 record and be one of the three worst teams in the league, along with San Francisco and New York Jets.
Cliff Christl
Green Bay - If you're into reading tea leaves as we head into the final lull before training camp, they suggest that if Ahman Green doesn't fully recover and come close to performing to his 2003 level, the Green Bay Packers will be hard-pressed to beat last year's record.
Two minicamps and 14 other practices in late May and June all but verified what most realists probably suspected: Remove Green from the equation and the Packers are all but bankrupt of talent at the offensive skill positions aside from quarterback.
Green didn't participate in any of the practices, other than during stretching and half-speed teaching periods, as he continues to recover from surgery, performed last October, to repair a ruptured right quadriceps tendon.
Advertisement
With injury-prone backup tailback Najeh Davenport also on the mend from ankle surgery, it left Noah Herron and Samkon Gado sharing time with the first offense. And while Gado is clearly the more explosive of the two, he couldn't separate himself from Herron, the embodiment of a run-of-the-mill back, over the past two months.
The wide receiver corps already was depleted by the pre-draft trade of Javon Walker. While trading Walker might have been the best alternative to a bad situation, it still robbed the Packers of their youngest and maybe most explosive game-breaker.
Pro Football Weekly recently published its 2006 preview issue and it included its annual player ratings by position. The magazine compiled the ratings with what it described as "a huge assist" from scouts, personnel directors and general managers.
Brett Favre was still rated the fourth best quarterback behind Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, but Favre no longer was rated among the top 50 players in the National Football League.
As recently as last year, Favre was rated seventh.
What that means, in turn, is that the Packers don't have a single player ranked among the 50 best. That puts them in the company of only six other teams, none of which made the playoffs last season and only one of which won more than six games. The other six teams without a top 50 player were Buffalo, Houston, Cleveland, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco.
At wide receiver, Donald Driver was ranked 27th, although Jimmy Smith, formerly of Jacksonville, was included in the ratings and has since retired. Delete Smith from the list and 20 of the 32 NFL teams still had a No. 1 receiver ranked higher than Driver. Five teams had two receivers ranked higher.
Walker was ranked 15th.
In other words, the Packers had two of the top 26 receivers in the league. Now, they have only one of the top 26.
That's a Niagara Falls sized drop-off, especially when you consider that the Packers probably don't have a second receiver who would rank among the top 50, maybe even the top 64.
PFW ranked 33 wide receivers, listed another 13 as emerging veterans and noted that three others weren't ranked due to injuries last season.
Neither Robert Ferguson nor Rod Gardner was among the 49.
At tight end, Bubba Franks was rated ninth, but he's hardly a playmaker, other than maybe in the red zone. For whatever reason, the magazine didn't rank fullbacks this year, but there isn't a player at that position in the entire league that's considered a playmaker.
That leaves running back.
Green was ranked sixth by PFW, although he played in only five games last year and averaged a career low 3.3 per carry. At age 29, even if Green wasn't coming off surgery, the clock on his career would be ticking down.
In 77 carries last year, his longest run was 13 yards. His 3.3 average was a yard less than his lowest previous average.
Add Green's surgery to the mix and there's reason to wonder if he'll ever play again, much less be his old self. It's safe to assume that general manager Ted Thompson wouldn't be banking on Green to make a comeback if he hadn't received encouraging reports from team doctors.
But the only Packers known to have ruptured a quadriceps in the past 25 years were cornerback Mike McCoy; and defensive tackles Santana Dotson and Steve Warren. McCoy reinjured himself in his first camp back and never played again. Former team doctor Eugene Brusky said later it was an injury with a high risk for recurrence. Dotson and Warren each played one more season, but weren't the same players.
With the Green of old, the Packers might have a formidable running game.
That, in turn, would relieve the pressure on Favre and perhaps allow him to make due with an average supporting cast elsewhere. After all, Favre has played with mostly average receivers for most of his career.
What if Green is removed from the lineup?
PFW listed Davenport and Gado among 16 young veteran backs who have shown some potential.
But without Green, the Packers wouldn't have a featured back ranked among the top 30 in the league.
It doesn't take a football genius to conclude that if a team doesn't have one of the top 30 runners in the league and it has only one of the top 50 receivers, it's going to struggle to score points and win games.
Couldn't the Packers surprise with a dominating defense?
Sure, if that was a realistic possibility.
But the Packers haven't had a dominating defense since 1996 and you can all but forget about them having one this season. To have a special defense requires special players.
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila was ranked 23rd and Aaron Kampman, 29th, at defensive end. Ryan Pickett was ranked 24th at defensive tackle. Nick Barnett was ranked 20th at inside linebacker. Al Harris was ranked 12th and Charles Woodson, 21st, at cornerback. Those are the only Packers' defenders ranked.
That's not exactly a lineup that's going to make anybody forget the '85 Chicago Bears. Or even the 2006 Bears.
They have five defenders ranked among the top 12 at their respective positions: Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, outside linebacker Lance Briggs, defensive tackle Tommie Harris, defensive end Adewale Ogunleye and safety Mike Brown.
The bottom line here might be where Pro Football Weekly picked the Packers to finish, no doubt based, in part, on what they heard from NFL scouts. The magazine predicted the Packers would finish last in the NFC North with a 4-12 record and be one of the three worst teams in the league, along with San Francisco and New York Jets.
