So interesting adjustment--Crosby is a career ~83.2% kicker if you exclude his 50+ kicks. Excluding 50+ kicks from all kickers in 2012, the average is ~87.6%.
From this, I conclude that his 50+ kicks are bringing down his average. Do we agree?
Next I must ask, does Crosby kick more 50+ kicks, which have the lowest chance for success, thus unnecessarily hurting his average?
143 50+ kicks were attempted last year, an average of 4.7 per team. Crosby, admittedly struggling last year, attempted 8. A sub-par kicking average is predictable, based solely on that detail. Continuing to send him out for those strikes me as a bad idea. (using top 30 kickers numbers from earlier in the thread)
Over his career, has attempted 32 50+ kicks in his career, average of 5.3 per year. Or 32 vs 28career kicks.
If we adjust the total number of 50+ kicks down to the 4.7 average, but keep his accuracy the same on 50+ attempts, his career average increases an entire percentage point.
If we similarly adjust his best years, ie, exclude 2012, his average is 79.63.
Okay, that's the math, here's what I conclude.
1) Crosby attempts too many long field goals
2) Those attempts hurt his over all average
3) Adjusted, he still isn't a great kicker, but he isn't terrible. He falls just short of the magic 80% mark.
4) 2012 appears to be a statistical anomaly, both in terms of over all accuracy and the large number of 50+ yard attempts
5) Probably worth another year. We need to determine which year(s) are the true oddball.
More Questions:
1) Lambeau is considered the toughest place to kick, assuming I remember the study correctly. Does a kicker who kicks there 'deserve' a 'bonus' to his percentage? IE, for ever 25 kicks attempted at Lambeau, should we just add 1% to your accuracy numbers to account for difficulty? Would that make for a more-fair comparison?