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By Far: Our Weakest Position

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by FrankRizzo, May 9, 2013.

  1. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    As far as I know they like Crosby because he has a big leg and because he's mentally tough. He certainly does have a strong leg but accuracy is as important on long FG attempts. And with the KOs being moved up, his big leg is less important in that area of the game. If he is mentally tough, he shouldn't let past failures affect him, but we saw that repeatedly last season, didn't we? And if he's mentally tough, he should be able to put last season behind him.

    What I'm hoping for is a real competition and in the unlikely event they're very close, the "tie" shouldn't go to Crosby IMO.
     
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  2. fanindaup

    fanindaup Cheesehead

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    I'd like to make the observation that pure FG% can't tell the whole story here. Crosby is asked to attempt a lot of 50+ yd. field goals, makes most of his kicks outdoors, and probably half the time in inclement weather. He holds the Lambeau record for longest made and most consecutive (I was at the game against Tampa when he snapped it). If there is anyone on this board who is nerd enough to crunch the numbers and takes all these other factors into account and can come back proving convincingly Crosby still sucks, I'm man enough to admit I'm wrong. You'll be asked to show your work. Until then, I'm filing it away as just like on certain days I get a case of the shanks on the golf course, and some days it gets in my head. Granted, there's more on the line but it happens. I've seen great kickers miss chip shots. I remember Chris Jacke missing a PAT against the Rams that lost the game. Jacke was a great kicker but has a lower lifetime FG% than Crosby's.
     
  3. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I can't crunch the numbers to compare Crosby's kicks to league average kicking conditions, but I can tell you that Robbie Gould kicks in conditions that are just as bad. And he is easily superior in career FG% (86% to 77%), and blows Crosby away in FG's from 50+ yards. (76% vs 42%).

    Crosby isn't the only kicker in the NFL who kicks in harsh conditions, and most others that do it, do it much better.
     
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  4. fanindaup

    fanindaup Cheesehead

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    Ok. I allow Robbie Gould is an outdoor kicker. My questions about Robbie Gould's numbers are, 1) how many of his attempts have been in bad conditions? 2) How many attempts has he had from over 50 yards? Is the sample size comparable to Crosby's in either case? What do the numbers look like before Crosby caught his case of the shanks? Statistically, that was an anomaly that could happen to Gould, or any other kicker, at any time as it happened also to David Akers last year. Akers was a career top kicker until last season. Pure numbers don't tell the whole story unless they are considered in context. Mike McCarthy asks Crosby to kick a lot from long range, even when he ws in his obvious slump and that has to be considered to have an effect on his percentage. Unless you can provide me with distinct comparison's which account for all these variables it's just your opinion. I'm not necessarily saying its wrong, I just want better proof than I have been offered.
     
  5. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Trust your eyes.
    Have you watched Crosby, yes or no?
    Have you watched the Bears, yes or no?
    They actually have windier conditions in Chicago than Lambeau tends to have.

    Croby's biggest misses that I can recall, by the way, were road games. One in a dome in Minny, the other in Washington in October, 2010. Had he made it to win it, Rodgers wouldn't have gotten the concussion that he got in overtime.
    Those are the 2 game-winning moments I can recall from him the past 3 seasons. Last year he was plain old bad, not just un-clutch.
     
  6. fanindaup

    fanindaup Cheesehead

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    Again, you have picked out two random examples which fit your theory. science is about crunching data and then coming to a conclusion, not having a conclusion and cherry picking data that proves your conclusion is right. I stand my ground that I prefer to have an open mind on the subject and not allow emotion to rule my judgement. The human brain is hard-wired to remember bad moments before good, so just using recall is not scientific.
     
  7. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    [​IMG]
    Dude, come on.
    #1- those 2 EXAMPLES are not just random. THEY ACTUALLY HAPPENED. Those games were on the line with his kicks there. That's a fact. It's also a fact neither were in bad weather.

    #2- my "theory" IS BASED ON WHAT HE DID. I had no theory before he missed the clutchest of kicks, or before he flatout sucked last year.

    #3- there's no cherry-picking here, other than perhaps what you are trying to fish out. there are plenty of stats you can locate at NFL.com which, in fact, SHOW what he's done, and that's been horsecrap. He's played in the same conditions Rodgers has thrown the ball in, by the way. Weather is certainly no excuse. UNLESS you're trying to cherry-pick to fit your desired theory.
     
  8. fanindaup

    fanindaup Cheesehead

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    by my statement (several times) i have no preconceived theory. i am open to seeing an analysis which accounts for all the factors which affect a kickers FG%. you, sir, are the person with the preconceived notion. and random does not mean imaginary. i am sure I could randomly pick a few kicks in which Crosby made himslef look like a kicking superstar. that does not mean he is one. yours do not plainly show he is not. i am neutral on the subject until someone can prove otherwise. i will concede his slump was hard to endure. by the end of the season it looked like he had worked out the kinks. until i observe training camp/preseason at least, i am willing to let the professional evaluaters (TT and MM) have the last word.
     
  9. Helmets

    Helmets Cheesehead

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    When I cringe and get nervous every time a kicker runs out onto the field, it is time to go. I never had that feeling with Longwell, Jacke, Stenerud, Marchol, or any others. I am no longer ever confident in the outcome when Crosby snaps up his chinstrap and I'm not sure anyone else on this forum, on the Packers sidelines, or in their front office is either.
     
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  10. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    1) It would be impossible to Gould's kicks with Crosby's side by side without going through every game tape. However, given the poor field maintenance at Soldier and windier conditions, it is very easy to conservatively assume that Gould has had just as many bad weather kicks.

    2) Gould is 13 for 17 and Crosby is 14 for 33. While Crosby has attempted more, it is telling that he has only one more successful kick in 16 more tries. Even if you project out Gould's next 16, no reasonable person would assume Gould will go 1 for his next 16 from 50+ given his track record.
     
  11. fanindaup

    fanindaup Cheesehead

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    Absolutelt true helmets, as far as that feeling goes, at least while he was in the slump. I remember having the opposite feeling while he was in the middle of his team record setting streak at Lambeau. That's why I trust figures over feelings. Also, despite not having that feeling with those other kickers, are you aware that Crosby's pure career % is better than everyone on that list besides Longwell? Who kicked in a dome for the last half of his career and at the end was rarely called on to kick anything over 40 yards because despite being accurate had no leg strength?
     
  12. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Trusting figures over feelings is fine, but the figures don't work in Crosby's favor.

    Despite having a higher career FG percentage than other names on that list, we are comparing different eras. Kicker expectations are much higher these days. Most current kickers are top 30 all time in accuracy.

    If Crosby was on a rookie contract, I'd be more inclined to want to stick with him, but giving elite kicker money to statistically a below average current kicker, any way you slice it, doesn't sit well.
     
  13. fanindaup

    fanindaup Cheesehead

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    When someone wants to discredit my view, they use field goal percentage. When I use field goal percentage to make a point, it's dismissed because it belongs in 'a different era.' Fascinating.... I'm assuming Crosby's struggles are why TT signed some competition for him. I'm also going to point out that the only other kicker who struggled with the shanks last year was David Akers, who up until then was considered a reliable kicker over most of his career. He's the same guy that nailed a 60+ yarder as time expired in the first half of the season opener last year. He's unemployed now so even being 'clutch' may not be good enough. Of course, Akers never had the chance to straighten himself out, and he is far past his prime now while Crosby is still young(ish). Ultimately it is not up to me or anyone else posting here whether he stays or goes, that decision rests with TT, and I assume he knows more about football than any of us. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I'm done with this thread since I've said all I have to say and apparently since I don't agree we should lynch Crosby I can't get the respect my opinion deserves. Good day.
     
  14. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Saying examples "ACTUALLY HAPPENED" doesn't contradict the allegation that they are random examples. He didn't allege you made them up, just that they are random examples. Not a big deal, just thanks for the laugh!

    I thought we had a thread that discussed an in-depth research piece on how field conditions affect FG kickers. I couldn't find the thread but this may be the study referenced:
    http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/Going for Three Predicting the Likelihood of Field Goal Success with Logistic Regression.pdf

    This MIT study shows Lambeau as the 2nd most difficult stadium in which to kick FGs between 2000 - 2011 but the body of it doesn't show the most difficult stadium and I don't care enough to look into it further: I'm not nerd enough to crunch the numbers, I'm just posting it in case someone else cares enough to interpret the study.

    IMO FG kicking has a lot of parallels with golf and it seemed to me last season that, in spite of the MIT study, Crosby's problems had a lot more to do with what was going on between his ears (like many golfers) than with the field conditions or even the length of FGs he was being asked to attempt.

    I don't care who wins the competition just as long as it's a real competition and we see much, much better FG kicking this season.
     
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  15. fanindaup

    fanindaup Cheesehead

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    Thanks Jack. I remembered the study you mentioned but didn't reference it because I wasn't sure of the details. I also agreed that it was a mental issue last year and gave golf as an example. I've had the same problem. As usual, I find your observations to be reasonable in a sea of wildly emotional posts.
     
  16. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    The golf parallel is pretty interesting, and accurate.
    And Crosby is a pretty serious golfer, interestingly enough.
     
  17. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    I've seen golfers get the yips on the green before... it's hard to cure.
    I run a golf store, and we get guys in time after time buying new putters, Odyssey, Scotty Camerons, Pings, etc.... they always blame the putter lol.
     
  18. realcaliforniacheese

    realcaliforniacheese A-Rods Boss

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    Anybody remember the 2011 campaign? how many kicks in a row did he make before he had a miss? and he kicked a 58 yarder. over the years he has been made over 75% of his kicks, He had a horrible slump last year or that average would have been higher. That's 3 out of every 4 he's made and he's not a dome kicker. The man has a leg.



    You don't win the Superbowl every year and FG Kickers don't make every kick. But hey, competition is a good thing.
     
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  19. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    I actually want to see Crosby get some "freebies" out there from 60, 64, like the one you showed above.
    He has the leg to make it from record-setting range.
    But I want it when there's no pressure, like up 20-6 at the end of the half, or in the 3rd or 4th quarter already up 10+.

    I can see him making something like that, then getting tons of pressure off his back, and then kicking good again.

    Kinda like a 25-foot putt for eagle when you're already out of contention, vs a 4-footer for par when you're down 1 stroke late on a Sunday. Pressure is not the same.
     
  20. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    1 - No one is dismissing FG percentage. Simply pointing out that Marcol of the 1970's isn't comparable to the kickers of today. Kickers of today are the most accurate ever. See for yourself. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/fg_perc_career.htm

    As you can see, 75%, 3 out of 4, is not impressive in today's game. 80% is the standard now. Even after Akers had a horrible year (and was cut), he is still over 81% in his career.

    2 - Kind of weird that you would get so defensive at the end there. This isn't a respect issue. You stated your opinion and people stated their reasons that they disagreed with it. That's it.
     
  21. mayo44

    mayo44 Guest

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    Apparently, you fail to understand the concept of what a slump is. Did you know that Gary Player had a streak in his career where he had 21 out of 24 holes that score over par, and 11 of those were double bogey or worse? Or that Larry Bird (career 88.6% FT shooter) had a roughly 19-game stretch where he only hit about 60% of his FTs? Then there was Reggie Jackson's 0-35 slump (which extended to a 1-43 slump) in 1983. They got through their slumps. There's no reason not to allow Crosby to prove he's gotten out of his.
     
  22. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Does he choke on short putts?
     
  23. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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    I am getting tired of the word "slump" being tossed out with crosby. The season is 16 games long, he was crapping out and praying to make a FG for what, 7 games or so? That is damn near half the season!!! That is not a slump, that is a PROBLEM. Be it mental, mechanical, or what not, you should be able to watch film and figure out your issues or go see the team psychiatrist for christ sake. People want to compare his "slump" to other sports, which is a piss poor comparison. Basketball is 80+ games, anyone think that "slumping" for 40 games is just a slump or an actual problem....that's half the season for a fair comparison, right? lol What about baseball and their 100+ games...anyone think it would be ok for a hitter to have a 50 game hitless streak? Hell no, he would be back in the minor leagues. ALL sports are a mental game as well as physical, if it's not in your body, the problem must lie in your head. Crosby has had a full offseason to sort out his brain and rest his mind. I have distaste for him after the 2012 season, but I hope he has cleared the cob webs from this skull before stepping back onto the turf. We don't need to be deprived of 36 much needed points this coming season.
     
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  24. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    So if football was a 2 game season and someone had one bad game, you can't call one game a slump because it meets your half-the-season threshold? You've got to face the facts that slumps can be long or short. It's still a slump. A problem is consistent. Football is a short season so a slump in football will likely last longer (games wise) than most sports.

    As for Crosby, I crunched and presented his stats in the thread we had during the season. I've added league-wide stats from 2012 to give Crosby some perspective. For Crosby's career stats below, I am not yet including his 2012 stats so that you can compare and contrast last season. The total career stats are at the bottom:

    Crosby Career Stats (2007-2011)
    100%__0-19 yards__4 for 4
    95.2%__20-29 yards__40 for 42
    86.5%__30-39 yards__45 for 52
    69.0%__40-49 yards__29 for 42
    50.0%__50+ yards__12 for 24

    League-wide 2012 Stats (top 30 place kickers)
    100%__0-19 yards__15 for 15
    96.6%__20-29 yards__198 for 205
    89.7%__30-39 yards__252 for 281
    80.3%__40-49 yards__233 for 290
    62.2%__50+ yards__89 for 143

    Crosby 2012 Stats
    n/a%__0-19 yards__0 for 0
    100%__20-29 yards__4 for 4
    71.4%__30-39 yards__5 for 7
    70.0%__40-49 yards__7 for 10
    12.5%__50+ yards__1 for 8

    Crosby Total Career Stats (2007-2012)
    100%__0-19 yards__4 for 4
    95.7%__20-29 yards__44 for 46
    84.7%__30-39 yards__50 for 59
    69.2%__40-49 yards__36 for 52
    40.6%__50+ yards__13 for 32

    So what appears from these stats are that Crosby was 10% below average at 40-49 yards and 8% below average on 50+yards. His 2012 numbers were marginal from 30-39 yards and terrible from 50+ yards. I still contend that MM was a fool for making Crosby kick 50+ yards eight times last year, which is well above his average for attempts.

    Green Bay was one of only four teams (NE, DEN, NO) that had 50 or more PATs, meaning that these are elite offenses. In that light, one would think that the Packers shouldn't need a big leg to score points. In 2012, teams average 4.8 FG attempts from 50+ yards. Green Bay was one of six teams (STL, TB, HOU, OAK, MN) to attempt eight or more from 50+.

    Our offense needs to be a little better at getting within Crosby's range while he's on the team. I'm all for bringing in more competition and replacing Crosby if a better option presents itself. However, he's not terrible and has gotten the job done when needed in the playoffs. Let's hope that a league-leading place kicker falls out of the sky for us.
     
  25. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    The "slump" explanation is getting ridiculous. Crosby has been at 80% or higher ONE year in his 6 year career. He wasn't all that good before last year.

    By contrast, Gould has been under 80% once in his 8 year career. Lindell, while in Buffalo, was over 80% 7 out of 10 years. So spare me the "Crosby kicks in bad conditions" explanation, those other two do, too.

    No one is saying Crosby is as bad as he was last year, but trying to chalk up last year to a slump ignores the fact that he wasn't all that good before last year, he was average at best. And he's paid like one of the best in the game. That's the problem that people have with him.
     
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