Bakhtiari to Jets?

tynimiller

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I was under the impression this was a discussion on what to do with Bak moving forward? Pushing $ into the future by extending him is poor business. GB is underwater on approx $20mil and it'll cost another approx $20mil to "see" if he can make it back...imho, another poor decision.
You said he needs to stop rolling the dice, meaning he has been is why I stated it in the manner I did is all.
 

Poppa San

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This seems to be accurate.

This seems to be inaccurate.

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Overall, it was a bad contract. I wasn't in favor of it at the time either. I'm not in favor of giving a lot of players a 3rd contract due to injury.
Not seeing where, if they cut him early in the next league year, they need to pay him any more money. Unless you are counting the per game bonus being paid next year. As I've stated, the dead cap has already been paid.
 

Krabs

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Not seeing where, if they cut him early in the next league year, they need to pay him any more money. Unless you are counting the per game bonus being paid next year. As I've stated, the dead cap has already been paid.
Got it, I see what you are saying now.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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IMO Gute was confident Bakh would play a significant amount of snaps based on not drafting any OL.
I definitely think that it was everyone's hope that he would for sure. Which didn't turn out to be the case and should be the cautionary tale going into 2024.

Heck, I wouldn't count on Jaire or Stokes in 2024. So the Packers may be looking at CB's, along with LT's, early in the 2024 draft. I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers pick up Stokes 5th year option this Spring. Unless he comes back and plays lights out for the final games of the season.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Not seeing where, if they cut him early in the next league year, they need to pay him any more money. Unless you are counting the per game bonus being paid next year. As I've stated, the dead cap has already been paid.
From what I can tell, the only thing Bahk will earn, prior to being on the roster in Sept. of 2024, is a workout bonus of $700K.

If that is the case, I wouldn't have a problem with that money being paid to him. Unless of course, he retires or it becomes obvious that he will never play again at a high level.

Pay him his workout bonus, see where he is at physically, maybe restructure his deal, with no upfront or guarantees. If he makes the roster in Sept. great, if he is cut or traded, no loss.

No matter what though, the Packers will always be on the hook for his current dead cap money of $19+ M. Whether that comes all at once in 2024 or a restructure spreads it out over multiple seasons.

All that said, there is no way the Packers should ride out his current contract, even if he appears to be healthy. Since that would mean a $40,583,017 cap hit.
 

Pkrjones

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From what I can tell, the only thing Bahk will earn, prior to being on the roster in Sept. of 2024, is a workout bonus of $700K.

If that is the case, I wouldn't have a problem with that money being paid to him. Unless of course, he retires or it becomes obvious that he will never play again at a high level.

Pay him his workout bonus, see where he is at physically, maybe restructure his deal, with no upfront or guarantees. If he makes the roster in Sept. great, if he is cut or traded, no loss.
What is his buyout # when (oops, I mean "if") he re-injures the same knee in May or June while training on team premises? Why run the risk?
 
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The sticking point w/ Bhak is the base salary. The signing bonus is spent and we're on the hook regardless. If and only if he's looking good post surgery, you could get cute with his deal for 2024 to play cap games.

The problem, of course, is that he has some leverage. If he doesn't like the offer, he could just demand to play out the contract, which would likely force us to trade or cut him.

1. Offer him an extra 3 years to give you room to play with bonus money spread over a few years.

2a. I'd specifically give him a roster bonus due in 2025, in case he really is done, we can walk away without another large cap hit.

2b. If you actually want to keep him and pay the roster bonus, convert it to a signing bonus, reducing his cap hit in 2025 to 1/2 or 1/3 the total amount.

3a. for 2024, offer him a smaller signing bonus (is 1 million enough for him to come to the table? 5?) + the veteran minimum + game day active bonuses. His 2024 base and roster bonus works out to 20.2M. Offer him 1.25M per game. A slight raise which hopefully is enough to get him interested

3b. As Bhak missed all but one game in 2023, his salary cap hit for 2024 would be reduced to his new, base salary + 1 game day check + whatever new bonus money was offered to get him to sign. The other 16 games would be "not likely to be earned" and thus any games he does play in, we'd get for free in 2024.

3c. If he makes it through on 7 games and you decide he's done, release him after 2024 before you pay the roster bonus. Your 2025 cap hit would be 6 * 1.25M.

Basically a long winded way to ask: His hit/dead cap for 2024 is $19,065,514. Even if we cut him, that's the minimum to finish paying off his bonus bonus. How much actually salary would you be willing to pay him for 2024 if you could tie most of his compensation to game day availability AND defer that cap hit for one year?
if I’m another team, what’s my contract look like for a guy that hasn’t played more than 10 games across 2 full seasons since 2020. That season was also in 2022. Not good. Do you even spend your energy and resources bringing that in for anything but a minimal deal? I wouldn’t I’d let that problem be someone else. We’ve all got enough problems with paying big $ to generate more problems.
That’s my opinion.

If he wants to play football, like you said you’d have to see him pass a series of physicals AND put him on a minimal salary with per game bonus. Anything else just isn’t too smart.

If he’d resign at $29mil “All-in” through 2025 + a modest 300K per game? But only an additional $5mil guaranteed? That’s doable.

For David that would allow him to make an extra $10.1mil+ per season maximum ($5mi base +5.1mil game day for 17 games) if he’s out there 17 games (300KX17)

On the GB end, you can spread his hit across 2024-25 and take your $19mil dead lick now and only be on the hook for minimum $5m next season if he never played even 1 game (or maximum $20.2mil payout in 2025 IF he plays BOTH 17 games both 2024/2025 seasons). Here you just got his remaining deal $21m shaved $0.8 million. Plus an extra contract year (2025)and ability to walk away in 2025 as minimal as
$5Mil/300K per game played in 2024)

In 2026 he’s off the books no matter what
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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What is his buyout # when (oops, I mean "if") he re-injures the same knee in May or June while training on team premises? Why run the risk?
There really isn't a "buy-out" on him, from what I can tell. Again, I am assuming all of his roster bonuses are tied to "per game" bonuses ($600K/game). So other than the workout bonus of $700K, the Packers will have no skin in the game, until they put him on the final roster, than his salary ($20.2M) would be 100% guaranteed.

There is also the issue with releasing him before he passes a physical. If they do that, they are on the hook for $1.23M AND the Packers would open themselves up to an Injury Grievance suit being filed by Bahk. If he files a grievance, 40% of the value of the process (usually the player's salary) would immediately hit the Packers cap. And that's $8.6 million in 2024. So in this case, Bakhtiari's dead money would jump to $27.665 million. The grievance would take some time to be resolved, maybe years. If Bakhtiari wins it, the other 60% would be added to the Packers cap hit. If the lineman loses the process, the $8.6 million would be credited back.

For me, the safe way to handle things, if he won't renegotiate his contract, is to keep him on the roster, if he works out, pay him the $700K, then see what happens over the next 4-5 months. If he passes his physical, then trade or release him, if that contract wasn't redone.

The Packers have no way to get around the dead cap hit of ~$19M, except to extend it out over a new contract.
 

tynimiller

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what about Favre?

Favre worked out for them, the implied references of getting burned was clearly (and I could be wrong for sure) the recent issues of Cobb not doing well, Amos being let go and Lazard literally being a healthy inactive...
 

JK64

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He was a great player like 3 years ago? 4 by next year? MAYbe his latest surgery will help. (Wasnt this the prognosis with the previous 3?) Nobody is going to trade jack diddly squat for him. We save $21M cutting him or we pay an extra $19 M to see if he can play. That seems like the choice. Dead cap money is a sunk cost. In business (which this is) its not part of the decision making process, because its gone either way. At issue is the money we pay him to try to have him play. I’m skeptical but I’m also not on the GBP training staff.
How can anyone have a healthy enough knee to play professional football after four surgeries?
 

Heyjoe4

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I definitely think that it was everyone's hope that he would for sure. Which didn't turn out to be the case and should be the cautionary tale going into 2024.

Heck, I wouldn't count on Jaire or Stokes in 2024. So the Packers may be looking at CB's, along with LT's, early in the 2024 draft. I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers pick up Stokes 5th year option this Spring. Unless he comes back and plays lights out for the final games of the season.
Stokes won't be back. Something happened to him in his second season. Who knows what it was. Alexander is also likely gone. Not sure what he would fetch in a trade. And Bakh is done.

That seems like a lot of talent out the door, but if none of them are salvageable, there is no real loss. Focus on LT and DB (CB and S) early in the draft. Some guys on the roster now are developing nicely - Owens, Ballentine, Nixon.

And unless I missed someone, that's damn near a complete house cleaning in two years, right? I'm fine with that. Now I hope the play from the last month is a real taste of what this team can be.

And FWIW, I wouldn't be surprised if Watson is done. Both Reed and Wicks are playing better than Watson, without the injury history. That will draw some disagreement.
 

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Some guys on the roster now are developing nicely - Owens, Ballentine, Nixon.
All three are 2nd contract guys with 5 years in the league. They have pretty much peaked in their development. Owens is too small else he'd be a prime candidate for the LB/S role. He's better against the run than coverage. Maybe a zone player? Ballantine is getting targeted much more than the 7th round rookie across from him. Tells me all I need.
 

milani

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Stokes won't be back. Something happened to him in his second season. Who knows what it was. Alexander is also likely gone. Not sure what he would fetch in a trade. And Bakh is done.

That seems like a lot of talent out the door, but if none of them are salvageable, there is no real loss. Focus on LT and DB (CB and S) early in the draft. Some guys on the roster now are developing nicely - Owens, Ballentine, Nixon.

And unless I missed someone, that's damn near a complete house cleaning in two years, right? I'm fine with that. Now I hope the play from the last month is a real taste of what this team can be.

And FWIW, I wouldn't be surprised if Watson is done. Both Reed and Wicks are playing better than Watson, without the injury history. That will draw some disagreement.
You could be right.
 

Heyjoe4

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All three are 2nd contract guys with 5 years in the league. They have pretty much peaked in their development. Owens is too small else he'd be a prime candidate for the LB/S role. He's better against the run than coverage. Maybe a zone player? Ballantine is getting targeted much more than the 7th round rookie across from him. Tells me all I need.
My bad. I didn't mean Ballantine, actually meant that "7th round rookie" - is it Valentine?

Either way, I get your point. Barring a miracle, 5th year guys are showing us pretty much all they'll have in terms of production. The Packers are going to have to go back to the draft for secondary help. I still like Owens and Nixon, especially Nixon.

I still think the secondary is playing better than expected, especially without Stokes and in a year where Alexander has had one terrific game, been injured, and runs his mouth more than his legs.
 

tynimiller

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I don’t see Stokes going anywhere till deal is up. Injuries have stolen two years from him. Cheap to keep and see what you have post and no benefit releasing
 

PackerDNA

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I'd bet on a lot of guys being gone after the season either through release or trade.Bakh, Jones, Runyon, Campbell, and possibly Alexander among others.
 

Heyjoe4

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I'd bet on a lot of guys being gone after the season either through release or trade.Bakh, Jones, Runyon, Campbell, and possibly Alexander among others.
Yeah it just seems like Gluten has really taken the initiative, with the trade of Rodgers, to make this his team. Yeah he signed and drafted some of these guys who are likely to be released, but if they aren't excelling it's better to find younger players who can contribute now or be coached up.

IMO Rodgers had a huge impact on how the team was built, in spite of his protestations to the contrary. Rodgers being Rodgers, his personality just had an outsized impact. It was more Rodgers' team than the GM or the HC.

That's not to say the Packers' FO doesn't need an overhaul, it does. That will start when they replace Murphy.
 

Poppa San

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I'd bet on a lot of guys being gone after the season either through release or trade.Bakh, Jones, Runyon, Campbell, and possibly Alexander among others.
Alexander isn't going anywhere. Before his upcoming $8m roster bonus and other bonuses, even in a trade we have a negative cap savings. He's a $27m dead cap plus those bonuses. Pushing it off to a post June 1 deal doesn't save much more than a low tier veteran journeyman salary.
 

milani

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My bad. I didn't mean Ballantine, actually meant that "7th round rookie" - is it Valentine?

Either way, I get your point. Barring a miracle, 5th year guys are showing us pretty much all they'll have in terms of production. The Packers are going to have to go back to the draft for secondary help. I still like Owens and Nixon, especially Nixon.

I still think the secondary is playing better than expected, especially without Stokes and in a year where Alexander has had one terrific game, been injured, and runs his mouth more than his legs.
Owens is one of the few safeties we have had in years who can not only tackle but hits hard. He is not afraid. A lot of our safeties got bulldozed and injured over the years. The one who was short lived but loved to punish people was Atari Bigby. With the new rules he would lead the league in fines and personal fouls.
My bad. I didn't mean Ballantine, actually meant that "7th round rookie" - is it Valentine?

Either way, I get your point. Barring a miracle, 5th year guys are showing us pretty much all they'll have in terms of production. The Packers are going to have to go back to the draft for secondary help. I still like Owens and Nixon, especially Nixon.

I still think the secondary is playing better than expected, especially without Stokes and in a year where Alexander has had one terrific game, been injured, and runs his mouth more than his legs.
 

tynimiller

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I'd bet on a lot of guys being gone after the season either through release or trade.Bakh, Jones, Runyon, Campbell, and possibly Alexander among others.

Again why release Runyan?? Now it post draft and TC odd man out sure but you’re talking about a guy with starting history, some really good film (and some bad of course) but rookie contract, still starting for us….why cut? You gain zero?
 
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