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Amish Mafia running the Packer Draft

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by AmishMafia, Mar 28, 2016.

  1. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    This will be my only mock of the year. There are a few players I'm excited about that really seem like TT Targets. This is mostly players I like but also fit the mold of what TT looks for (or at least what I think he looks for).

    With the signing of Cook, I don't think that affects what the Packers will do. I believe they will take the BPA whenever they pick. There should be about 10 players on the top talent tier, I think 3 or 4 will be defensive linemen. With the loss of Raji, I have a good feeling that will be our first pick. I think there will be 2 ILBs off the board for the Packers first pick - then there won't be a player at ILB worthy of our 2nd round pick.

    Anyway, here we go:

    1 Jarran Reed NT Alabama. Tough and uber strong. Likes to punish and will control the line of scrimmage. This is the year of the big D man and there should be a good one on the board waiting for us. Although he didn't rack up the sacks in college, he has the athleticism and may have some success there in the NFL. But he won't need to get to the QB to be valuable to the Packers. Controlling the LOS in the middle will do wonders for our underperforming ILBs.

    2 jason sprigs OT : Best OL at Senior Bowl. Athletic and strong will need to develop some technique for the next level. I am not as positive towards our OL as some are. I think there is a 50-50 shot Spriggs or Germain Ifedi is at the Packers pick. They are about the same and I would be happy with either.

    3 Kenneth dixon rb Louisiana Tech - Great WR. I was interested in Forte because of his recieving threat. Dixon could be a WR if he wanted. He is a pretty good all-around RB, and should help add some interesting dimensions to our offense.

    4a. James Cowser OLB Southern Utah. Very effective against lower competition. Very athletic - should translate over to the NFL. Very aggresive with a non-stop motor. Loves football and will give it his all every game and every practice. These are the guys who really set the tone for a team. The more I keep typing the more I think we need to target him sooner.

    4b. Kolby Listenbee wr TCU: a one-trick pony, but it is a pretty good trick. He is blazing fast and can really stretch the field. A little bird told me that the Packers think he can develop better route running and can be an all-around receiver. He has a lot of work to do, and if he stops track, hopefully he can focus more time on learning football nuances.

    4c. Jihad Ward 5T Illinois: Strong at the point of attack can set the edge with the best of em. Has some development to do. Mature and has a ton of upside. Not much production in college - went to JUCO before transferring. Still learning the skills necessary.

    5 Caleb Benenoch OT UCLA: Athletic player who is good run blocking but a work in progress for pass blocking. May be able to move him inside for a year or two if we lose a G in FA next year. He started strongly for the bruins in the first few games at right tackle and then started filling in at other positions due to injuries. Had he been able to concentrate on one position it would have been better for his development. I'm thinking that means he is a team player.

    6 Cassanoa McKinzy ILB Auburn: Powerful player, fast and a great tackler. pass defense is suspect. Can wait to see if he develops more control, he tends to over pursue and get sucked in. Maybe a player in a year or two.

    7. Ryan SMith CB 5'11" with great speed. Agreesive tackler great cover skills. poor hands. Led teams in tackles - as a CB. Instinctive and a student of the game. Loves football and is intelligent and mature. I think he has a good chance at developing into something special.
     
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  2. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I would be absolutely devastated if the Packers use their picks on the second day of the draft on an offensive tackle and a running back, two positions the team doesn't need a starter at, while not addressing the team's biggest need at inside linebacker until the sixth round.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2016
  3. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Bad news for you. Unless Ragland or Lee drop I dont think the Packers go ILB. I also dont think the ILB position is as dire as dome here think. Both Ryan and Barrington showed some promise. I dont see any ILBs beyond those 2 who show any immediate promise. Cassanova will be great on STs for a couple of years while we see if he develops.
     
  4. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    IMO Ragland is the only inside linebacker worthy of a first-round pick and it´s probable he will be gone by the time the Packers pick. I´m not interested in drafting Lee at all.

    While there won´t be any three down ILB available on the second day of the draft there could be some left on the board capable of excelling in coverage, addressing the Packers most dire need. Even if Thompson doesn´t feel that way there´s no reason to spend both of these picks on positions not in need of a starter.
     
  5. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    You never know when a need for another starter will arise. Part of the draft and develop idea is that you take BPA whether he can help immediately or down the road a season or two.

    As far as you being "absolutely devastated" based on the Packer draft picks, come on man. Its a big world out here with a lot going on. Why emotionally tie yourself so much to something you cant control and in the big picture is just an unimportant sidebar to life?
     
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  6. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I would really appreciate if fans would stop bringing up the BPA BS whenever talking about the draft. Having only one player in the top tier left at the time a team is on the clock doesn´t happen a lot of times, Rodgers being one of the rare exemptions. Position of need is a huge factor in deciding between players within the same tier.

    Please take a minute and read Andrew Brandt´s story about drafting Rodgers in 2005 and maybe you will finally understand teams have players rated in tiers and not from 1-500. BTW he was the Packers vice president at the time, so he was within the draft room. Here´s the most important part from it:

    In 2005, we had approximately 20 players rated above the first-round line. When we arrived at our pick, at No. 24, the only name left above that line was Rodgers, who played the same position as one of the most durable players in NFL history: Brett Favre.

    http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-war-rooms

    Trust me, I´m more than capable of ordering the priorities in my life in a proper way without anybody on an internet forum having to tell me. As we´re posting on a team´s forum here the Packers fan in me would be devastated though.
     
  7. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    You need to understand something. BPA does not contradict talent tiers. Talent tiers are common sense. And didnt you argue against talent tiers with me last year? Didnt you state there were gradations within talent tiers? Which is the direct contradiction to talent tiers.


    BPA means if your pick us up and you have 5 players rated in the same tier you pick one of them. Picking for need is when you drop down a talent tier because you need a TE or whatever. Of the 5 players you pick from, if one matches a need, it is suddenly not BPA. Would the term "one of the players available with the highest rating" be better? Or is BPA just easier?

    Tired of fans bringing it up? Well TT states it quite adamantly as well as others in the organization, including Andrew Brandt. Im not sure why there is such an aversion to the term.
     
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  8. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Drafting the best player available means you have one player rated above everyone else left on the board and select him because of it. Reaching because of need means selecting a player from a tier below because of him addressing a specific position.

    The best way to go is to select the player from the top tier presenting the best value to a team. Position of need absolutely factors into the process in this case.

    Thompson and others using the term doesn´t make it any more credible.
     
  9. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Of course. But I disagree with your definition of BPA. I believe media and nfl guys use more of the definition I do. If you want to create another term for it, fine. But dont get upset over the term BPA. It means the same thing.
     
  10. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Well, but how you differentiate between the Packers selecting Rodgers, who was a true BPA pick, and other draftees presenting the best value???
     
  11. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I think the sticking point here is plurality of BPA. Sometimes there is only one BPA and sometimes there are 20 BPAs when you pick. I dont see a need to differentiate the two situations, but I guess you could say Last Player Available in the Talent Tier. I think just saying BPA is easier.

    As long as you are not sacraficing quality for need you are taking BPA. There are some inherent biases in the process. A LB coach is going to overrate a LB because he wants the help. Will TT spend a lot of time looking at QBs to really properly rate them? Probably not. But that is TTs job to weed thru the biases and pick the best players.
     
  12. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Ps other than the lack of ILB early, how do you like my picks?
     
  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I like all of the players you chose in the first third rounds but have to admit that as of right now I don´t know a whole lot about the ones you selected from the fourth round on.
     
  14. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Actually I think we agree about the best way to draft player. I just don´t like to call it BPA as most of the time there are several players remaining within the top tier.
     
  15. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Symantics then. BPA BVA go TT!
     
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  16. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    Going to have to disagree here. No one here has draft philosophy and creds anywhere near equal to that of Ted Thompson. The honest truth imo is that we are nothing more than armchair keyboard clowns compared to the real pros.
     
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  17. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    Very impressive analysis AM, you had me saying yeah lets get him with each pick of yours. I'll take those 9 add a couple of hungry UDFA's, whack a few guys to get to 53 and lets get it on!
     
  18. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Geez, relax. The post you replied to wasn't meant to be negative in any way against your beloved Teddy. I just think the term BPA is misleading.

    Of course the real pros have more knowledge about football, NFL players and draft prospects, they do that for a living and spend hours and hours on evaluating talent. That doesn't mean they don't make mistakes or that we can't discuss their moves on a forum though.
     
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  19. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Not sure how you decided on the Packers first round pick but I would prefer Andrew Billings, Jonathan Bullard or Chris Jones over Reed. If those guys are gone then I'd be fine with Reed, I'm just not convinced that Reed will ever be a guy that can rush the QB.
    Billings is a different kind of NT, he's more of a one-gapping NT.

    While Bullard doesn't have the sack numbers in college, he was the highest graded run-defender in college according to PFF and, interestingly, in their podcast PFF mentioned that the WAY Bullard played the run showed the kind of moves that can translate to rushing the QB. Bullard was just more focused on stopping the run in college.

    Chris Jones, due to some character concerns, might fall far enough but I doubt it; however, if he does fall, the packers shouldn't even have to think twice about picking him. Jones has top-ten talent and skill on the dline.
     
  20. jetfixer

    jetfixer Cheesehead

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    I like your mock, but Dixon won't make it out of the second round, IMO. He seems to be shooting up the boards. I'd like to address the ILB issue earlier, but you did have a good reason. I'm not sure that we wouldn't draft the injured ND kid if he's there in the second round. Good work on your draft!
     
  21. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I would prefer to draft Chris Jones out of the group as well but it´s possible he will still be on the board for the Packers second-round pick. You´re right about Reed not offering a lot as a pass rusher but he´s most likely the best defensive lineman in the draft defending the run. With him or Billings it depends on what the Packers are looking for. Bullard would be a reach in the first-round in my opinion.
     
  22. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Bullard would be an end, not NT but has more upside than Reed. Reed, right now, is better but, as I pointed out, Bullard has demonstrated the skill set to be a pass rusher while Reed is pretty much a two-down guy. You could play Bullard at end for run downs and move him inside on passing downs. Really comes down to floor vs. ceiling.
     
  23. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Bullard hasn´t been a productive pass rusher in college. While he may develop into a nice one at the pro level that´s far from certain. Reed is currently the better prospect of the two.
     
  24. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Reed wont kick any field goals either, but.thats okay. A NT in Capers defense is not to sack but to stack. Reed plays smart and uses his talents wisely. He routinely pushes the LOS back despite even 2 blockers. He will make life better for our ILBs to do.their jobs. His only drawback is late in games late in plays he starts playing tall. all in all I think he is better suited fpr our defense than those you mentioned.

    The guys you list could all be good too. Never saw so many good DL. Two other names are Butler and Reeds teammate, A'shawn robinson. Either of those two would be as about a s good and Robinson would be better. But I expect him likely to be gone.
     
  25. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    IMO Reed is the better prospect than both Robinson and Butler. I expect both of them to be drafted in the second round.
     

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