AJ Dillon the starter?

[Sunshinepacker]

Stop just stop. First of all look at the amount of carries it took to eclipse 1,000 that year. There are very few backs that do that. I'm sorry but pretending Henry ain't been a beast all along ignores facts on paper and facts observed with your eyes.

I'm sorry, but 4.9 yards per carry isn't that great (it's not bad, it's just not exceptional). He wasn't carrying the offense, the Titans were the 27th ranked scoring offense in the NFL in 2018. I'm not the one ignoring the paper. Henry is a good running back who can carry the ball a LOT and not see his efficiency fall. I don't value being able to hand the ball to a guy 378 times like they did last year as much as giving Aaron Rodgers 100 extra chances to throw the ball.

In 2018 there were 9 running backs who ran for over 1,000 yards and 3 others that were 27 or fewer yards away from 1,000. At no point have I said Henry isn't good, in fact I specifically pointed out that he was good to try and avoid this very thing. Some fans long for the days of the workhorse, pound-the-rock running back. I prefer to take advantage of the modern NFL's emphasis on making the passing game easier, especially when you have a top-5 QB, top-5 WR, and top-5 pass-blocking oline. It's all preference. I too enjoy Henry burying defenders with a stiff arm. I just also enjoy a beautifully thrown pass.

 

[GreenReign]

I'm sorry, but 4.9 yards per carry isn't that great (it's not bad, it's just not exceptional). He wasn't carrying the offense, the Titans were the 27th ranked scoring offense in the NFL in 2018. I'm not the one ignoring the paper. Henry is a good running back who can carry the ball a LOT and not see his efficiency fall. I don't value being able to hand the ball to a guy 378 times like they did last year as much as giving Aaron Rodgers 100 extra chances to throw the ball.

In 2018 there were 9 running backs who ran for over 1,000 yards and 3 others that were 27 or fewer yards away from 1,000. At no point have I said Henry isn't good, in fact I specifically pointed out that he was good to try and avoid this very thing. Some fans long for the days of the workhorse, pound-the-rock running back. I prefer to take advantage of the modern NFL's emphasis on making the passing game easier, especially when you have a top-5 QB, top-5 WR, and top-5 pass-blocking oline. It's all preference. I too enjoy Henry burying defenders with a stiff arm. I just also enjoy a beautifully thrown pass.

4.9 YPC IS exceptional. The career record for highest YPC is something like 5.5. Anything above 4 YPC is considered good. So 4.9 is well above average. Out of all backs that eclipse 200 carries you can probably count on one hand the amount that go over 5 YPC.

 

[easyk83]

4.9 YPC IS exceptional. The career record for highest YPC is something like 5.5. Anything above 4 YPC is considered good. So 4.9 is well above average. Out of all backs that eclipse 200 carries you can probably count on one hand the amount that go over 5 YPC.

Pffft thats .1 yards off of the career ypc of Barry Just a Guy Sanders, .5 better than Walter Whatever Payton, and .7 ypc better than the career average of Emmitt Meh Smith.

 

[easyk83]

Henry's strength is how often he can carry the ball and maintain a good yards per carry. He doesn't offer anything in the passing game. Tennessee, with Henry, has been good when they have a great defense because when the other team builds a big lead, Henry doesn't help that much.

In 2018 Henry ran for 1,059 yards (not great) with 15 receptions. The offense, without the good QB and elite WR, couldn't stay on the field often enough to give him the 300+ carries he's received the past 2 years. His 4.9 yards per attempt in 2018 would have been good for 15th in the NFL this year. No running back in today's nfl can carry an offense without a good passing game or a historically great defense.

Edit: Before someone thinks I'm saying something that I'm not, Derrick Henry is a very good NFL running back and is probably the most fun running back to watch in the NFL. I just prefer guys that are also factors in the passing game.

The run game forces defenses to bunch their edge rushers in closer to the center of the line which presents a better rush defense but significantly slows down the pass rush. By churning out nearly 5 ypc Henry effectively neuters a pass rush. You cant stretch your DEs out to 7 tech or the wide 9, the best pass rushing alignments, if you have to worry OLs just rushing through those big gaps to blow up linebackers and safeties to create holes so big a semi could drive through.

This is one major reason why Aaron Rodgers was so successful this year, heavier focus on the run meant that he faced fewer pass rush oriented alignments which resulted in him being sacked a mere 20 times last year as opposed to 49 in 2018.

BTW in 2011 Aaron Rodgers had Jordy Nelson Greg Jennings Donald Driver Jerimichael Finley and James Jones. Arguably he had a better season in 2020 with an even better TD to INT ratio and 3 more tuddies on the year. Is it because our WR corps was even better in 2020? Or is it that an effective ground game created better passing lanes, generated more time in pocket and avoided unfavorable passing situations by moving the sticks.

 

[Mondio]

4.9 YPC IS exceptional. The career record for highest YPC is something like 5.5. Anything above 4 YPC is considered good. So 4.9 is well above average. Out of all backs that eclipse 200 carries you can probably count on one hand the amount that go over 5 YPC.

especially when you consider how he got those yards. Not all averages are the same. He's THE guy he defense keys on and he still gets his yards.

 

[Raleigh NC Packers Fan]

I think in football you need balance more than anything. With that being said, I would argue the most important positions in football are the OL and DL. You can have the best receivers and running backs in the world, but it doesn't matter if they can't get open because they are facing a superior DL, and average RB's and WR's will have great games if there are holes being opened up on the opposing defense by a good OL.

You don't have to have the best QB, but he at the very least needs be able to hold onto the ball and not throw interceptions, be a leader on the team, and be able to lead the offense on a game winning scoring drive. The QB is a lot like the goalie in hockey or a pitcher in baseball, they can singlehandedly keep a team in a game or lose a game.

You need both good WR's and RB's to be good on offense because if you are only good at one, even if you are exceptionally good at running or exceptional at passing, you are going to eventually run into a defense that can stop the run or the pass, and even most average defenses will probably be able to eventually stop you if you only run or only pass all game. Finally, you need to be able to run the ball to control the clock and pass to score quickly when you don't have much time left.

So, I really don't get this argument that RB is not as important, or that WR is not as important, and even though QB is important, and you can't have a bad one, you need more than that to win a championship.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

4.9 YPC IS exceptional. The career record for highest YPC is something like 5.5. Anything above 4 YPC is considered good. So 4.9 is well above average. Out of all backs that eclipse 200 carries you can probably count on one hand the amount that go over 5 YPC.

4.9 would have been 15th in the NFL during 2020 asking running backs with significant carries.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Seeing some of these replies, I'm honestly stunned that teams like the Bills, Bucs, and Chiefs were such great offenses without one of those all important, dominant running backs. The Browns had great running backs, third best rushing offense in the NFL, but only 14th in scoring.

At some point you have to realize that the NFL has passed rules that emphasize the passing game. Ignoring the built-in advantage that gives the passing game is nonsensical.

 

[Poppa San]

Otherwise Dalton would have been helped a lot more by Zeke, as opposed to Zeke falling off a cliff when Dak got hurt.

You are asking why a RB did not shine in a Mike McCarthy offense? Seriously?

 

[Raleigh NC Packers Fan]

Seeing some of these replies, I'm honestly stunned that teams like the Bills, Bucs, and Chiefs were such great offenses without one of those all important, dominant running backs. The Browns had great running backs, third best rushing offense in the NFL, but only 14th in scoring.

At some point you have to realize that the NFL has passed rules that emphasize the passing game. Ignoring the built-in advantage that gives the passing game is nonsensical.

They might not have had a dominant running back, but I bet their offenses were still balanced between running and passing. Short passing to your receivers and tight ends with running yards after the catch can sometimes be a substitute for using the running back, but that doesn't work when you run into a defense with good linebackers, and usually the running backs are also utilized as well in offenses that like to do short passes.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Which is why I doubt they re-sign Jones; I doubt Gute is going to do something that makes his choices in the draft look bad.

I expect the Packers to not re-sign Jones because of a lack of cap space. Gutekunst being afraid that one of his picks looks bad shouldn't be a factor at all.

If taking a RB in day 1/2 is dumb, then apparently the Chiefs, Colts, Ravens, and Rams are dumb franchises.

The difference being that everyone of the running backs drafted by those teams received more carries in 2020 than Dillon got snaps.

I don't think NFL offenses need elite running backs to be elite overall. That's not my argument. My argument is that it's totally acceptable to spend day 2 picks on running back, especially when the need exists and the team has valued the player with a strong grade.

I agree, unfortunately the Packers didn't have any need to draft a running back in the second round last year though.

I don't care when someone is picked as long as they can play and produce.

That's true, but ignores the chances of possibly having used the second rounder on a player at another position who might have had a larger impact.

4.9 YPC IS exceptional. The career record for highest YPC is something like 5.5. Anything above 4 YPC is considered good. So 4.9 is well above average. Out of all backs that eclipse 200 carries you can probably count on one hand the amount that go over 5 YPC.

Henry ranked 12th in yards per carry among running backs with at least 100 carries in 2018. That's not exceptional by any means.

 

[Mondio]

That's true, but ignores the chances of possibly having used the second rounder on a player at another position who might have had a larger impact.

No it doesn't. I'm fully aware. I'm also fully aware that just because you pick someone else it doens't guarantee crap. They might suck AND you're left without someone who could have been useful for the next 10 seasons. it goes both ways. SO, if someone is productive, I don't care at all what their draft position was. not any.

 

[GleefulGary]

This is just an example, okay?

Running for 4.5 yards per carry against a 6 man box and running for 4.5 yards per carry against an 8 man box are two very different things. Understand?

I don’t know, but I would guess Henry faced a decent amount of full boxes compared to some other backs. Just blindly looking at yards per carry stats doesn’t tell anybody anything, imo. We should be smarter than that.

 

[easyk83]

Henry ranked 12th in yards per carry among running backs with at least 100 carries in 2018. That's not exceptional by any means.

Lies damned lies and statistics. First how many of those backs above him were merely situational rushers with 150 rushes or less. Second how many of them were the primary key for opposing defenses?

 

[gopkrs]

Lies damned lies and statistics. First how many of those backs above him were merely situational rushers with 150 rushes or less. Second how many of them were the primary key for opposing defenses?

and 3rd...how do their respective O lines match up?

 

[easyk83]

No it doesn't. I'm fully aware. I'm also fully aware that just because you pick someone else it doens't guarantee crap. They might suck AND you're left without someone who could have been useful for the next 10 seasons. it goes both ways. SO, if someone is productive, I don't care at all what their draft position was. not any.

It's also possible that Aaron Jones would have suffered a significant injury and Dillon would have been a major contributor down the stretch. I also tend to think that Coaching is a factor here, I thought that Dillon earned some more snaps after Tennessee but went straight back to number 3 in the pecking order. I also thought that Dillon provided the best matchup against TB and in limited carries he was our most effective back against them by a healthy margin. If Dillon took 20 carries against TB, dominated those smallish LBs and trucked us to a Super Bowl would it have been a bad pick then?

Was the selection of Brett Favre by the Atlanta Falcons a bad pick? Personally I think the scouting and player evaluation for Dillon was spot on. I think he has the make up of a special player and I think he's the perfect compliment for Aaron Rodgers. A big powerfully built runner with nimble feet who explodes in the first 10 yards is the kind of back that defenses have to respect and will have to respond by squeezing their defensive alignments.

 

[Dantés]

It's true that passing efficiency is greater than running efficiency in the NFL. However, people take that true piece of analysis and go way, way too far.

While "balance" in the NFL in 2021 doesn't have to (and usually shouldn't) mean a 50/50 split, a certain level of "balance" still really matters for offensive success.

Take, for example, the top 10 scoring offenses of 2020. Only two of them were in the top ten for pass % (KC, 5th and TB, 10th) and five of them were in the bottom ten (BAL, 32; TEN, 30; NO, 28; IND, 24; LV, 23). The average of the rankings of those top 10 teams was 20th (which translated to a 57/43 split). Every year, these kinds of results throw water on the notion that the key to great offense is to go away from the run, and yet people still advocate for it like it's a proven concept.

Furthermore, all of the efficiency stats that analytics guys use to try and argue that teams should just pass, pass pass, are all based on passing results from a league that runs about 43% of the time. If you completely go away from the running game and just throw every down, passing efficiency will plummet (not to mention other ancillary problems).

Additionally, running matters a lot more for certain offenses. You can much more readily turn an Andy Reid offense into a 70% pass attack than a Matt LaFleur offense, because of the foundation of the system. If they tried that in Green Bay, it would be an abject disaster.

So running offense and RB talent still absolutely matter. The majority of good running back play is found on day 2 of the draft. We can say all of that while still acknowledging that running backs are not as valuable as quarterbacks, pass rushers, corners, tackles...

 

[Heyjoe4]

Tough decisions and I think the one we're going to be left with is just moving on with Dillon and drafting another and bringing in a 1-2 year type vet.

Jones is most explosive, he's also going to cost more than I think is prudent at the RB position in this day and age. Coupled with the fact he's not your every down pounder that can do anything and everything from the RB position. He certainly has strengths, very strong ones but I don't see him as the every down, workhorse that does it all. While nice to have, when you have invested that heavily in your QB, you don't invest that much into this type of RB.

Williams would be the most affordable. he's solid. I think an underrated pass catcher. Tough, solid, consistent and ball secure runner. Great pass blocker. But his skill set isn't that of an explosive game changer like Jones. and while great to have on a team, I think his skills are more easily replaced. Not easy, but more easily. Someone is likely going to pay him a fair amount, but do we knowing he's not the game changer?

I think it's a done deal that Jones is going to get more than we should even think about paying him. I'm not certain Williams is going to get that much. If he does, we move on obviously. 4M average is about the high end of what I'd want to keep him at. 6-7 or more? Time to replace and move on.

Yeah if you think about the entire FA situation, it makes more sense to spend up and keep Linsley. I love Jones, but think he'll be priced out of what is good for GB. He's not an every down back. This is why Dillon was selected. So ideally they get Williams for around $5 mil, Dillon of course stays on his rookie deal, and they resign Dillon. I like the idea of having a string O-line where even average RBs can excel. They can pick up another RB in the draft.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's true that passing efficiency is greater than running efficiency in the NFL. However, people take that true piece of analysis and go way, way too far.

While "balance" in the NFL in 2021 doesn't have to (and usually shouldn't) mean a 50/50 split, a certain level of "balance" still really matters for offensive success.

Take, for example, the top 10 scoring offenses of 2020. Only two of them were in the top ten for pass % (KC, 5th and TB, 10th) and five of them were in the bottom ten (BAL, 32; TEN, 30; NO, 28; IND, 24; LV, 23). The average of the rankings of those top 10 teams was 20th (which translated to a 57/43 split). Every year, these kinds of results throw water on the notion that the key to great offense is to go away from the run, and yet people still advocate for it like it's a proven concept.

Furthermore, all of the efficiency stats that analytics guys use to try and argue that teams should just pass, pass pass, are all based on passing results from a league that runs about 43% of the time. If you completely go away from the running game and just throw every down, passing efficiency will plummet (not to mention other ancillary problems).

Additionally, running matters a lot more for certain offenses. You can much more readily turn an Andy Reid offense into a 70% pass attack than a Matt LaFleur offense, because of the foundation of the system. If they tried that in Green Bay, it would be an abject disaster.

So running offense and RB talent still absolutely matter. The majority of good running back play is found on day 2 of the draft. We can say all of that while still acknowledging that running backs are not as valuable as quarterbacks, pass rushers, corners, tackles...

Correct. The running game has re-emerged in GB under MLF, and to good results. Another benefit of a solid running game is in creating extended drives and tiring the opponent's defense. And let's face it, GB's WR group isn't the deepest, and unless that changes, they need to keep running it.

 

[Half Empty]

Yeah if you think about the entire FA situation, it makes more sense to spend up and keep Linsley. I love Jones, but think he'll be priced out of what is good for GB. He's not an every down back. This is why Dillon was selected. So ideally they get Williams for around $5 mil, Dillon of course stays on his rookie deal, and they resign Dillon. I like the idea of having a string O-line where even average RBs can excel. They can pick up another RB in the draft.

Typo?

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Henry ranked 12th in yards per carry among running backs with at least 100 carries in 2018. That's not exceptional by any means.

Henry had his breakout party towards the end of 2018. Prior to that, he was splitting with Lewis. Watch his game against Jax that year... Insane.

 

[easyk83]

It's true that passing efficiency is greater than running efficiency in the NFL. However, people take that true piece of analysis and go way, way too far.

While "balance" in the NFL in 2021 doesn't have to (and usually shouldn't) mean a 50/50 split, a certain level of "balance" still really matters for offensive success.

Take, for example, the top 10 scoring offenses of 2020. Only two of them were in the top ten for pass % (KC, 5th and TB, 10th) and five of them were in the bottom ten (BAL, 32; TEN, 30; NO, 28; IND, 24; LV, 23). The average of the rankings of those top 10 teams was 20th (which translated to a 57/43 split). Every year, these kinds of results throw water on the notion that the key to great offense is to go away from the run, and yet people still advocate for it like it's a proven concept.

Furthermore, all of the efficiency stats that analytics guys use to try and argue that teams should just pass, pass pass, are all based on passing results from a league that runs about 43% of the time. If you completely go away from the running game and just throw every down, passing efficiency will plummet (not to mention other ancillary problems).

Additionally, running matters a lot more for certain offenses. You can much more readily turn an Andy Reid offense into a 70% pass attack than a Matt LaFleur offense, because of the foundation of the system. If they tried that in Green Bay, it would be an abject disaster.

So running offense and RB talent still absolutely matter. The majority of good running back play is found on day 2 of the draft. We can say all of that while still acknowledging that running backs are not as valuable as quarterbacks, pass rushers, corners, tackles...

I tend to think that there is an opportunity cost that often goes disregarded within the league. That its often better to cut against the grain from a personnel standpoint. If teams move towards say a lot of even fronts odd front personnel might become a better bargain and vice versa.

Now the conventional wisdom is that the NFL is a passing league, and likewise teams spend significant capital and resources to build the best passing dominant offenses that they can. Likewise defenses are adapting to the new trends by becoming smaller and faster in the middle and back end.

Perhaps with running backs having reached a low point in value its easier than ever before to acquire quality running backs and perhaps defenses have become markedly less capable of defending against those backs.

If I was building a team right now I would probably start with a ground game and once thats established then I would go look for a quarterback.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Running for 4.5 yards per carry against a 6 man box and running for 4.5 yards per carry against an 8 man box are two very different things. Understand?

I don’t know, but I would guess Henry faced a decent amount of full boxes compared to some other backs. Just blindly looking at yards per carry stats doesn’t tell anybody anything, imo. We should be smarter than that.

There were seven other running backs who faced a loaded box more often than Henry in 2018.

Lies damned lies and statistics. First how many of those backs above him were merely situational rushers with 150 rushes or less. Second how many of them were the primary key for opposing defenses?

Derrick Henry wasn't even the primary running back for the Titans for most of 2018. In addition, if you take away the game vs. Jacksonville, in which he rushed for an insane 238 yards on only 17 attempts, he averaged 4.1 yards in all other games that season.

It's also possible that Aaron Jones would have suffered a significant injury and Dillon would have been a major contributor down the stretch.

It's also possible Bakhtiari would have suffered a season ending injury and a tackle selected in the second round could have been a major factor. Wait a moment.....

Yeah if you think about the entire FA situation, it makes more sense to spend up and keep Linsley. So ideally they get Williams for around $5 mil, Dillon of course stays on his rookie deal, and they resign Dillon.

I highly doubt the Packers will have enough cap space to re-sign Linsley and Williams at $5 million a season.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Typo?

Yeah thanks. I meant to say Dillon stays on his rookie deal and they resign Linsley.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

While I think there is a very good chance that Dillon will be a decent player, your take is extreme to say the least. Josh Jackson, Josh Jones, Quinton Rollins.... remember them? all second round picks.... Obviously we all want our 2nd round picks to be starters... but expecting it is not realistic.

Personally I thought Dillon looked more than capable of being a starter this last season, and there's definitely plenty of reason to love a future with him. Hell, I even found myself getting a bit miffed that LaFleur didn't give him more opportunities than he did.

I'm really not that worried about letting Aaron Jones walk as much as I love watching him, because if there's one thing this organization has done great on over the years, its turning low rated RBs like Dorsey Levens, Ahman Green, Ryan Grant, James Starks, and Aaron Jones into big time players.