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Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by BorderRivals.com, Dec 6, 2012.

  1. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    Mike Neal has what seems to be a serious shoulder injury. Just another added to the list.

    Hopefully I'm not duplicating work, but here's the list of injuries this year (I'm going to need help with this too):

    IR:
    Cedric Benson
    James Starks
    Bryan Bulaga
    Desmond Bishop
    D.J. Smith
    Nick Perry
    Sean Richardson

    Injured:

    T.J. Lang - 1 game
    Greg Jennings - 8 games
    Jordy Nelson - 1 game and counting (but really 3 because he was hurt on 1st drive in 2 games)
    Davon House - 6 games
    Sam Shields - 6 games
    Charles Woodson - 5 games
    Clay Matthews - 3 games and counting
    Frank Zombo - PUP for most of year
    Erik Walden - 1 game suspension
    B.J. Raji - 2 games
    C.J. Wilson - 1 game and counting
    Jerel Worthy - 1 game

    I'm probably missing some. But it'd be interesting to compile the complete list. Lot of big names on the list too. Speaks volumes on how the team has been able to survive so far and is on the verge of getting many of these players healthy - hopefully!
     
  2. Vladimirr

    Vladimirr Cheesehead

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    This is a list I compiled using data from the NFL's injury website. I used each player's game-time injury status (not midweek practice status), and then weighted their status making "Out" a score of 10, "Doutbtful" a 5, "Questionable" a 1, and then "Probable" a 0.1. If a player is on the injury list for 5 weeks, he gets a 5 in the "Injuries" column, but if he's Probable for those five weeks, then he only gets a 2.5 in the Weighted column. If he's Out for five weeks, he'd get a 50 over there.

    Weaknesses - This doesn't account for starters vs. non starters, doesn't account for "key" players, doesn't account for IR, and doesn't more heavily weight positions where we've just plain run out of players. (And, as BorderRivals states above, doesn't account for games where players go out in the middle of a game)

    By my weighted stats, we've been the second most seriously injured team in the NFL for the 2012 season. By just sheer numbers of player/weeks of injury, we're #9.


    Team Injuries Weighted Injuries
    SF 80 35.9
    TB 59 62.4
    DEN 80 106
    BAL 108 112.7
    MIA 100 125.4
    CHI 57 147.3
    WAS 79 156.3
    CAR 89 170.3
    HOU 193 178.1
    ARI 155 186.8
    MIN 118 191.5
    CIN 101 195.7
    SD 78 201.9
    SEA 86 215.7
    ATL 105 225.6
    DET 120 251.6
    PHI 101 265.2
    NYJ 231 283.1
    TEN 107 287.3
    STL 77 296.3
    KC 103 300.2
    BUF 141 348.8
    NO 71 351.8
    CLE 168 357.2
    OAK 154 358.2
    IND 112 387.7
    JAC 91 412.6
    NYG 123 412.8
    NE 183 424.6
    PIT 108 427.2
    GB 121 442.5
    DAL 143 502.4

    Our (Packers) breakdown is as such, in player-weeks.

    Out 39
    Doubtful 5
    Questionable 22
    Probable 55
    Total 121
    Weighted 442.5

    In other words, over the 2012 season, we've had 39 instances where a player was designated as "Out" for a game.

    For comparison to our season, San Francisco, despite having 80 player-weeks of injury, breaks down like this.


    Out 1
    Doubtful 0
    Questionable 20
    Probable 59
    Total 80
    Weighted 35.9

    (They've had a total of one player designated "Out", for one week. Wow, wouldn't that be nice?)
     
    • Informative Informative x 7
  3. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    That is very interesting...man.
     
  4. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    I love these kinds of analyses. Great job Vladimirr!

    I went to the USA Today injury report, because they list IR and Out-For-Season as additional categories to the regular injury report. I compiled the numbers and found:

    - As of this week, teams are averaging 7 players on the injury report, 0.7 players out-for-the-season, and 5.6 players on Injured Reserve.
    - The Jaguars have the most players on IR with 12, while the Panthers and Packers both have 11 and the Bucaneers have 10.
    - When you combine all players on the injury report, with those out-for-the-season (like James Starks), and players on IR you get a total injury count. Jacksonville again leads this with the Packers closely behind:

    Total Injured Players
    <> 22 Jacksonville
    <> 21 Green Bay
    <> 19 Cincinnati
    <> 18 Tennessee
    <> 17 Carolina

    - Pittsburgh has the most players on the injury report that are not out-for-season or on IR. They've got 12 injured players, followed by Chicago and Jacksonville, with eight other teams tied for fourth highest including Green Bay.

    So while we are at or near the top of most lists, Green Bay isn't experiencing anything extraordinary. The ONLY extraordinary stat is that it's happened twice in the past three seasons. Too many of you have jumped to the conclusion that this correlation signals a systematic problem. I don't think there is anything solid pointing to such a conclusion. At worst right now you can only say with certainty that it's bad luck.
     
    • Informative Informative x 4
  5. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Speaks volumes of TTs ability to build depth when we are leading the division with all these injuries.
     
    • Agree Agree x 5
  6. LZ13

    LZ13 Cheesehead

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    Starks is not on IR - that was mis-reported on an NFL.com headline but has not been confirmed. Truthfully, I think he will be back by the last game or at least the playoffs - otherwise he would be on IR by now.
     
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    What's next? A fourth rounder for Vonnie Holiday?
     
  8. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    I should have listed the Packers' IR list. Here it is:
    1. Johnny White
    2. Sean Richardson
    3. Bryan Bulaga
    4. Derek Sherrod
    5. Nick Perry
    6. DJ Smith
    7. Brandon Saine
    8. Cedric Benson
    9. Andrew Quarless
    10. Desmond Bishop
    11. Johnny Jones
    As LZ correctly pointed out. Starks is not officially on the IR list yet. If the Packers need the room on the roster or wanted to save the salary expense, they likely would have done it by now. However, if they think that Starks could return in time for the NFC Championship game or Super Bowl, you might as well keep him on the roster for those possible situations.
     
  9. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    Great analysis everyone and thanks for getting the complete lists. I think ivo hit it on the head. This information points directly at how well TT has done in building a roster top-to-bottom that can compete at a high level. Consider, with these injuries, the Packers STILL have the sixth highest odds to win the SB according to Vegas. And frankly, when (and hopefully not if) we get healthy, I think we have to have even better odds to win it.
     
  10. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    I placed Neal to IR when I saw his name on the active roster.
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
  11. milani

    milani Cheesehead

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    MM held back on Neal at the press conference today saying he had to look at the medical report.
    We know that spells doom. It's good to get Shields back this week. We are short on D linemen but the Lions hardly run the ball. They throw like crazy so we need as many DBs and safeties we can get back there. House actually covers better and tackles better than Shields. But Sam is fast and quick. We need him right now.
    The mention of Vonnie Holliday right now is not all that crazy. We need a D linemen just to get to the end of the season. We are down to 4. Our linemen don't sack anyone but we will need help stopping Chris Johnson, Forte, and AP again in the final 3. MM hinted about a roster move at the end of the week.
     
  12. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    FOUR of those guys on IR are 1st round draft picks.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  13. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    If Jarius Wynn or Daniel Muir are still available, seems like they like bringing back familiar faces.
     
  14. LZ13

    LZ13 Cheesehead

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    According to this story http://www.wisconsinrapidstribune.c...te-year?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s (and the press conference today), Starks could be back for the last few games of the season. Woodson, Matthews, and Nelson could be back in a few games too. The game this Sunday is going to be tough cause all those guys are out, but if we can pull it out, things are looking pretty good for post-season hopes.

    On a brighter note, Sam Shields should be back this Sunday according to MM.
     
  15. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    The bone bruise finally healed after 2 months!!!! Amazing!!!
     
  16. GreenBlood

    GreenBlood Banned Banned

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    Ever had one? Didn't think so.
     
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  17. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Perhaps you can explain why you included "doubtful", "questionable" or "probable" at all in your scoring system. Teams are wildly inconsistent in how they use these designations...a few teams load up lists week after week; others downplay. But "out" is "out", sorta mostly. Second tier guys designated "out" might not have been on the game day active roster anyway.

    It looks like you tabulated "outs" for every team. Seeing that without the weighted contribution of the other categories might be more informative. Sometimes less can be more. Still, the considerable effort is appreciated.
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    If I'm not mistaken, all 5 of those teams play outdoors. 4 play on grass (or 98% grass for Lambeau), while Cincy plays of Field Turf.

    This is counter intuitive, and possibly interesting.
     
  19. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    I guess that the followup would be to analyze whether the IR injuries happened on the home turf
     
  20. Powarun

    Powarun Big Bay Blues fan

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    Anyone else noticed in El Guapo's list 4 of the bottom 5 teams were in the super bowl in the last two years. Could success come at a price?
     
  21. Vladimirr

    Vladimirr Cheesehead

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    Here's the same numbers, with everything not "Out" being given a weighting of zero. Since "Out" was already weighted so high on my last list, changing the weightings didn't make a significant impact.

    That said, El Guapo's numbers are still probably a better guide to the true impact.

    An even better picture would take a "key player" rating into account, maybe use the Weighted Career AV from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ - but this would take way more time than I have :)

    Team Injuries Weighted Injuries
    SF 80 10
    TB 59 30
    BAL 108 60
    ARI 155 60
    DEN 80 80
    MIA 100 80
    CAR 89 90
    CIN 101 100
    CHI 57 120
    WAS 79 120
    NYJ 231 120
    HOU 193 140
    MIN 118 140
    DET 120 140
    SD 78 150
    SEA 86 160
    ATL 105 190
    TEN 107 220
    KC 103 220
    STL 77 230
    PHI 101 240
    NE 183 280
    CLE 168 290
    BUF 141 300
    OAK 154 300
    NO 71 330
    NYG 123 330
    IND 112 340
    JAC 91 380
    PIT 108 380
    GB 121 390
    DAL 143 410
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  22. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    ohhh...good one...:tup::tup:
     
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  23. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    SEE!
    This is another reason why I feel HATE for the Niners..... all their great guys on defense continue to magically play without getting hurt, whereas we have lost Bishop, DJ, Perry for the year. Woodson and Matthews for many games. Shields for many games...... Take away Justin or Alden Smith for them for the year, and one or both of their ILBers and let's see if they keep rolling.
    Dallas has been screwed down here too...
     
  24. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Well at least the most important player on the roster hasn't missed any time (Rodgers). So if theres really a positive to all these injuries that would be one. If he got hurt forget about any talks of a SB run. If theres a knock on TT it would be his lack of concern at backup qb.
     
  25. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    It still pisses me off to see Lance Briggs walking away from the Bears game a week and a half ago in a walking boot for his ankle and then being good enough to go the following Sunday without missing a game. Tillman and Forte both had ankle injuries as well during the same game, did not finish the game and played the following Sunday. When I saw they were injured and off the field I figured they would be back the next week as they were......and when I saw Lang chilling on the bench with his shoe off I knew he would be out the following week.

    IMO a good player at 85-90 percent everry week is better than a backup at 100 percent for a few weeks just so the starter can be back to 100 percent for "more important or playoff" games. I think last season showed how poor of a strategy it is to sit on your hands and wait for the playoffs. Keep the momentum...keep the ball rolling with everyone.
     

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