2023 Round 2 pick #50: Jayden Reed WR

[Mondio]

Just because a team likes a player doesn't mean the pick isn't a reach. Gute could've taken Reed in the third round or perhaps even the fourth round and grabbed a DL like Keannu Benten in the second. Reaching for players like Reed or Deguara in 2020 means you leave holes in the roster. I'm not against drafting players for special teams, but in this case, its a little early to use a second rounder on a punt returner, where Reed does excel.

you have a different definition of reach. I understand what Dantes is saying. They had all these big names still available. They didn't "reach" for the next best thing a round or 2 early because they felt they needed a WR and that was what was left. They took him because they liked him more than all those guys everyone has been talking about. They could be wrong, but they didn't reach.

 

[tynimiller]

Just because a team likes a player doesn't mean the pick isn't a reach. Gute could've taken Reed in the third round or perhaps even the fourth round and grabbed a DL like Keannu Benten in the second. Reaching for players like Reed or Deguara in 2020 means you leave holes in the roster. I'm not against drafting players for special teams, but in this case, its a little early to use a second rounder on a punt returner, where Reed does excel.

Says who?

The same draft engines that said Mingo would be there at 80? Only to see him actually go nearly top 40?

Folks crack me up with their ability to know precisely where guys would have been and not been - an organization would pay you good money for that gift.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Just because a team likes a player doesn't mean the pick isn't a reach. Gute could've taken Reed in the third round or perhaps even the fourth round and grabbed a DL like Keannu Benten in the second. Reaching for players like Reed or Deguara in 2020 means you leave holes in the roster. I'm not against drafting players for special teams, but in this case, its a little early to use a second rounder on a punt returner, where Reed does excel.

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Espn had him as the 47th best player. He was not sliding to the 3rd or 4th round.

 

[DoURant]

Just because a team likes a player doesn't mean the pick isn't a reach. Gute could've taken Reed in the third round or perhaps even the fourth round and grabbed a DL like Keannu Benten in the second. Reaching for players like Reed or Deguara in 2020 means you leave holes in the roster. I'm not against drafting players for special teams, but in this case, its a little early to use a second rounder on a punt returner, where Reed does excel.

Benton was picked by the Steelers at #49, the pick before Reed, so unless they don't make the trade to drop 2 spots for a 6th Rd pick, we don't know if Benton was a target also. As for Reed, he is most likely going to be the starting slot receiver, so he wasn't drafted just to be a punt returner. At Michigan St, he lined up everywhere, was utilized on jet sweeps, and also lined up in the backfield. His best trait is he is elusive and his ability to run after the catch.

Just because "you" don't like a player, or that they were picked over someone else you liked, doesn't mean the pick is a reach. Like the saying goes, "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder".

 

[tynimiller]

I absolutely LOVE the draft process and build my own boards specifically about 100 deep and then from there just general bucket rankings…and I’d never be ignorant enough to say “so and so would have been there in the fourth or fifth.

Beyond maybe 10 to 20 guys it gets VERY VERY tough to predict where guys get to or don’t…if someone has cracked the ability to know they really need to be in a war room.

 

[Dantés]

Just because a team likes a player doesn't mean the pick isn't a reach. Gute could've taken Reed in the third round or perhaps even the fourth round and grabbed a DL like Keannu Benten in the second. Reaching for players like Reed or Deguara in 2020 means you leave holes in the roster. I'm not against drafting players for special teams, but in this case, its a little early to use a second rounder on a punt returner, where Reed does excel.

Just because a player went before the public expected doesn't mean the pick is a reach.

You have no idea where Reed would have landed if the Packers had passed.

Maybe we should judge the pick based on how the player performs?

 

[Raleigh NC Packers Fan]

Does seem like a really good fit for the type of offense that we run. His athleticism is a little bit of a concern (while not a bad RAS score, it wasn't very high either), and I do agree that there were some really good receivers available when the pick was made, but maybe he was just the best fit for our offense.

 

[AmishMafia]

Does seem like a really good fit for the type of offense that we run. His athleticism is a little bit of a concern (while not a bad RAS score, it wasn't very high either), and I do agree that there were some really good receivers available when the pick was made, but maybe he was just the best fit for our offense.

When you watch him play, he looks very fast, quick and elusive. Maybe he just didn't practice the drills? Maybe he had a cold, or worse yet, a sore thumb when at the combine? I'm not to worried about his athletic profile.

Another note - he played well in the snow!

 

[Half Empty]

Just because a player went before the public expected doesn't mean the pick is a reach.

You have no idea where Reed would have landed if the Packers had passed.

Maybe we should just the pick based on how the player performs?

Hard to do that today.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Well, I did some reading and watched his highlights.

He plays fast. Seems to be comfortable over the middle and catching in traffic. Will compliment Watson and Doubs well. Improves packer ability to attack the entire field and stretch the offense. The punt returns shows he is elusive in the open field.

I get it now. Is it a good pick? My least favorite pick, as I thought there were several other WRs avaliable or sit tight and take some other positions at the original spot. But I will adopt a wait and see approach. I think he will be at least average.

Seems the Packers have at least 1 of these kinds of picks every draft. A guy that either people haven't heard of or if they have, figured he was more of a guy you look at 2-3 rounds later than the Packers selected him.

This doesn't prove that Gute and his scouts don't know what they are doing. On the contrary, it proves that I have no clue what I am doing when it comes to scouting, which is much more logical. Of course, in a few years, we will know the actual answer as to who was right, but even if Reed flops, I'd put my faith on the Packer scouting team over my own any day.

 

[AmishMafia]

Seems the Packers have at least 1 of these kinds of picks every draft. A guy that either people haven't heard of or if they have, figured he was more of a guy you look at 2-3 rounds later than the Packers selected him.

This doesn't prove that Gute and his scouts don't know what they are doing. On the contrary, it proves that I have no clue what I am doing when it comes to scouting, which is much more logical. Of course, in a few years, we will know the actual answer as to who was right, but even if Reed flops, I'd put my faith on the Packer scouting team over my own any day.

Absolutely!

I knew about him. I saw him rated in the 2nd round. But when I saw his athletic profile I figured Gute wouldn't be interested.

Anyone here who thinks they know more than Gute is a fool. Watching some YouTube and reading a few analysts, isn't the same as a dozen professional scouts, a medical staff, direct interviews, and talking to 30 guys who coached him, played with him, or trained him. Of course that doesn't mean he is always hitting every pick, but he has a bigger knowledge base than we do.

I would have had Reed 4th or 5th WR on the board when picked. I'm certain Gute knew of the other receivers but preferred Reed.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Absolutely!

I knew about him. I saw him rated in the 2nd round. But when I saw his athletic profile I figured Gute wouldn't be interested.

Anyone here who thinks they know more than Gute is a fool. Watching some YouTube and reading a few analysts, isn't the same as a dozen professional scouts, a medical staff, direct interviews, and talking to 30 guys who coached him, played with him, or trained him. Of course that doesn't mean he is always hitting every pick, but he has a bigger knowledge base than we do.

I would have had Reed 4th or 5th WR on the board when picked. I'm certain Gute knew of the other receivers but preferred Reed.

Spot on. I'm not saying other teams don't, but I think the Packers really put a high premium on character and intelligence of players. Which from what I have read, Reed has both.

The NFL payout now is so big, even for rookies, that many of the players drafted become instant millionaires or at worst, have access to money like they have never seen before. It's a huge fork in the road for most of them. Does success lead to greater success or does it lead you down the path of self-destruction?

 

[gopkrs]

Another thing. Jayden did not have a good QB throwing to him at Michigan State.

 

[Half Empty]

Absolutely!

I knew about him. I saw him rated in the 2nd round. But when I saw his athletic profile I figured Gute wouldn't be interested.

Anyone here who thinks they know more than Gute is a fool. Watching some YouTube and reading a few analysts, isn't the same as a dozen professional scouts, a medical staff, direct interviews, and talking to 30 guys who coached him, played with him, or trained him. Of course that doesn't mean he is always hitting every pick, but he has a bigger knowledge base than we do.

I would have had Reed 4th or 5th WR on the board when picked. I'm certain Gute knew of the other receivers but preferred Reed.

Giving what he's making and the access to the information you detail, this is a pretty low bar.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Another aspect of the draft that I fully admit to not knowing, is how the Packer coaching staff feels about current rostered players for 2023 and beyond. The OL is a good example. I have seen a lot of people talking about using high draft capital on improving it. I'm all for improving it, but maybe the talent to do so, is already on the team and the coaches know it. If you look at the current 2023 players, the Packers are definitely not lacking in OL bodies. I may have counted wrong, but I see 13 players.

I expect to see a few more drafted today, as well as a few UDFA's signed. I'm not saying that just because the Packers didn't draft an O-lineman in the first 3 rounds, that they don't feel they need to improve it, but those improvements might come from within, at least in 2023.

 

[Dantés]

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[tynimiller]

Seems the Packers have at least 1 of these kinds of picks every draft. A guy that either people haven't heard of or if they have, figured he was more of a guy you look at 2-3 rounds later than the Packers selected him.

This doesn't prove that Gute and his scouts don't know what they are doing. On the contrary, it proves that I have no clue what I am doing when it comes to scouting, which is much more logical. Of course, in a few years, we will know the actual answer as to who was right, but even if Reed flops, I'd put my faith on the Packer scouting team over my own any day.

While I disagree I do know in house from my one close ish contact they are a lot more confident in the OL room than most of us, me included.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

they are a lot more confident in the OL room than most of us, me included.

I covered that in another post.

I will also give you credit for what looks like a ton of research on potential draft picks. I for one, didn't do much this year. Just read some posts here, a few online articles and did some mock draft simulations.

 

[milani]

He called a lady reporter sir and apologized because he was doing

Just because a team likes a player doesn't mean the pick isn't a reach. Gute could've taken Reed in the third round or perhaps even the fourth round and grabbed a DL like Keannu Benten in the second. Reaching for players like Reed or Deguara in 2020 means you leave holes in the roster. I'm not against drafting players for special teams, but in this case, its a little early to use a second rounder on a punt returner, where Reed does excel.

The Packers are looking for Reed to fill the Cobb role. Remember Cobb was a returner as a rookie. It was hard to get him enough reps because our offensive roster was so loaded. Reed comes to a roster that is quite the opposite. He could become a starter if he makes the most of his opportunities.

 

[Dantés]

you have a different definition of reach. I understand what Dantes is saying. They had all these big names still available. They didn't "reach" for the next best thing a round or 2 early because they felt they needed a WR and that was what was left. They took him because they liked him more than all those guys everyone has been talking about. They could be wrong, but they didn't reach.

And to be clear-- I do believe that reaches happen. I believe that teams draft players a round+ earlier than they have guys rated because of need. And it could be that Jayden Reed is such an instance. We just don't know.

What makes no sense is to judge what is or is not a reach by judging against public perception. If the draft teaches us anything, year after year, it ought to be that the public and the league are not always on the same page.

If the Packers had taken Hyatt at #42, a lot of fans would be screaming "STEAL!!!" and yet the league as a whole allowed him to fall to #73. So was he a crazy steal, or did the professionals just not like him as much as the amateurs?

I'm inclined to think that the Packers had Reed highly rated for a few reasons:

1) He was not picked at the end of a run of WR's-- the top 5 had gone and they had their choice of everyone else in the class. They chose Reed.

2) Smart WR people seem to really love Reed. All Matt Harmon does is study college and NFL receivers. He loved Reed.

3) Gutekunst said that they traded back twice because they had so many prospects left that they really valued. Presumably Reed would be one of those.

 

[Dantés]

The Packers are looking for Reed to fill the Cobb role. Remember Cobb was a returner as a rookie. It was hard to get him enough reps because our offensive roster was so loaded. Reed comes to a roster that is quite the opposite. He could become a starter if he makes the most of his opportunities.

In 2020, which I believe to be the season in which we saw the most of LaFleur's offense as he wants to run it, the Packers used 3 WR sets 55% of the time and 1 or 2 WR sets 45% of the time.

My guess is that it will be close to 50/50 in 2023, what with Musgrave, Kraft, Deguara, Jones, and Dillon on the roster.

So unless there's a veteran addition, I would bet that Reed is the "starting" WR3 on that 50% of snaps that they are in 11 personnel.

If I'm right, that would be ~550 snaps on offense, plus punt return duties.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Just because a player went before the public expected doesn't mean the pick is a reach.

You have no idea where Reed would have landed if the Packers had passed.

Maybe we should judge the pick based on how the player performs?

In that case, there are no draft projections, which kind of defeats the process of judging guys on their relative talent level at the collegiate game. Very few people who specialize in the draft had Reed as the fifth or sixth WR in the class. Other than Ohio State, the Big Ten hasn't exactly been producing top WR talent lately.

 

[Dantés]

In that case, there are no draft projections, which kind of defeats the process of judging guys on their relative talent level at the collegiate game. Very few people who specialize in the draft had Reed as the fifth or sixth WR in the class. Other than Ohio State, the Big Ten hasn't exactly been producing top WR talent lately.

In what way does that mean there are no draft projections?

 

[tynimiller]

In that case, there are no draft projections, which kind of defeats the process of judging guys on their relative talent level at the collegiate game. Very few people who specialize in the draft had Reed as the fifth or sixth WR in the class. Other than Ohio State, the Big Ten hasn't exactly been producing top WR talent lately.

Dantes actually shared one from a guy that literally watches more tape than this whole board does that loved him. I know a concensus board I track had him in top 70. Another pundit had him in their top 10 WRs.

He was off my GB board due to size, but I knew he was lethal and wouldn’t last past the third…wouldn’t have been shocked at all.

Brenton Strange is a prime example of a guy that we all want to say was a reach…not really if you watch tape and study his production…he was gonna get picked but sure went touch earlier than I’d have bet but wasn’t shocked.

My “shocks” was Gibbs going as early as he did, Levis falling out of first, Xavier Hutchinson falling as far as he did, Ojomo the league proved to me I was wrong on.

 

[milani]

In 2020, which I believe to be the season in which we saw the most of LaFleur's offense as he wants to run it, the Packers used 3 WR sets 55% of the time and 1 or 2 WR sets 45% of the time.

My guess is that it will be close to 50/50 in 2023, what with Musgrave, Kraft, Deguara, Jones, and Dillon on the roster.

So unless there's a veteran addition, I would bet that Reed is the "starting" WR3 on that 50% of snaps that they are in 11 personnel.

If I'm right, that would be ~550 snaps on offense, plus punt return duties.

Yes. I believe TE packages will be used more depending on down and distance and yhe running game. MLF will try to move the chains more than letting his new QB take shots at will. And that is OK.